2024 Week Five Recap: Rorschach

In last week's Bad Betting Advice preview, I opened the article with a definition. Here is another one:

A Rorschach test is an psychological exercise in which subjects' perceptions of inkblots are recorded and then analyzed, an example of which is shown below. They are meant to be open for interoperation and different people can have vastly different opinions about what they see.

Is that a Spartan helmet, a cartoon caricature one of the officials from Saturday night with devil horns, or is it Jim Harbaugh with a long wooden nose? Who's to say?

Coming into Saturday night's game between the Michigan State Spartans and the Ohio State Buckeyes, I thought that there was the potential for the game to be a defining moment in the early history of the Jonathan Smith era. My data suggested that the game would be much closer than the opening 24-point spread.

Instead, the Buckeyes blew out the Spartans, 38-7. But if we squint at the image and use our imagination, the overall picture is not quite as grim as the final score would indicate.

Michigan State did a lot of things right to open the game. Spartan quarterback Aidan Chiles was efficient, and the designed run plays were working (netting six over six yards per carry in the first half). 

The Spartans had the ball in the Buckeye redzone on four consecutive drives. Yes, Michigan State only got seven points out of those drives, but that was due in large part to some bad turnover luck and a missed facemask penalty.

On the defensive side of the ball, the Spartans did give up 17 points. But, the Green and White forced a field goal on the first Buckeye possession, intercepted the ball on the third possession, and dropped an easy interception on the second possession. Instead of a turnover, the Buckeyes were able to score on a rare fifth-and-goal play.

With two minutes remaining in the first half, Michigan State had the ball and was trailing only 7-17. The score could very easily have been 24-10 with the Spartans getting the ball after the break. The wheels came off the bus after that, but I saw a lot of encouraging things in those 28 (mostly) good minutes of football.

Just to put some of the data into perspective, I went back to the box scores of the last seven games between the Spartans and Buckeyes and plotted Michigan State's total yardage on the first four drives and the number of points scored by Ohio State in the first half of each game. That comparison is shown below in Figure 1.

Figure 1: Total yards in each of the first four Michigan State offensive drives in the last eight games against Ohio State.

The Spartans put up significantly more yards in those first four drives on Saturday night than in any of the previous seven games. Michigan State also held the Buckeye offense to the second lowest point total in that span. 

One could argue that the data above is cherry picked. To some extent, that is true. One could argue that if ifs and buts were candy and (buck)nuts, the Spartans would be perennial Big Ten contenders. That is true as well.

Spartan fans are entitled to see what they want to see from Saturday night's loss. Some might conclude that we are seeing the Same Old Spartans. Everyone is entitled to their own opinion. As the old saying goes, opinions are like Wolverine-fan neighbors. Almost every Spartan fan has one.

But I still choose to be optimist. When I look at the big picture and the data, what I see is progress. Some day soon, I believe the Big Ten and the rest of the College Football nation will start to see it as well.

Week Five Bad Betting Results

Now it's time to review the results of last week's Bad Betting Advice, starting with the overview summary shown below in Figure 1. More information about how to read this figure can be found in Week One's edition of Against All Odds.

Figure 2: Results of Week Five showing the actual point differentials relative to the opening spread.

Eight teams overachieved this week by beating the spread by more than 14 points including Tulane, Army, Southern Methodist, Navy, Kansas State, and Boise State. The only team to underachieved by failing to cover by more than 14 points in a victory was Miami of Ohio.

There were a total of 13 upsets in Week Five, which was very much in line with my prediction of 12.2. Table 1 below summarizes those upsets and compares them to the picks made last week.

Table 1: Upsets in Week Five based on the opening Vegas line compared to the upset projections from last week.

Based on the opening spread, Kentucky's (+17) upset of Mississippi was the biggest, but Colorado (+11), and Arizona (+11) both scored upsets as double-digit underdogs over fellow Big 12 opponents UCF and Utah respectively. All three results have implications for the conference title races.

Although the spreads were much smaller, Alabama's thrilling win over Georgia (-1.5) and BYU's win over Baylor (-3) will also both have significant impact in the SEC and Big 12 races.

When I looked at the results from my computer this week, it generally looked like roses. My computer went 5-3 (62.5%) for upsets bringing the year-to-date performance up to a respectable 15-20 (43%). The FPI also had a rosy week, going 3-3 (50%) bringing its year-to-date record 12-9 (57%).

Table 2 below gives the results of the computers' picks against the opening spread.

Table 2: Results of the highlighted picks against the spread for Week Five.

My computer went 4-2 (67%) in suggested bets and 35-17 (67%) overall against the spread. This brings the year-to-date performances to 18-12 (60%) and 138-106 (56%), respectively. That looks like winning.

My curated set of FPI picks went 1-2 (33%) while the full set of FPI picks went 28-24 (54%). This brings the year-to-date performance for the FPI to a solid 28-24 (54%) and 130-114 (53%), respectively.

Table 3 below gives the results of the point total bets for Week Five.

Table 3: Results of the recommended point total bets ("over/under") for Week Five

The performance of these suggestions paints a slightly less desirable picture. My "lock" picks went 1-1 (50%) once again this week while the full collection of suggested bets did a little better at 7-5 (58%). This brings the year-to-date totals to 7-13 (35%) for the locks and 60-44 (58%) for the suggested bets.

Updated Big Ten Odds and Expected Wins

Following the results of Week Four, I have re-run the full season Monte Carlo simulation using the updated power rankings, including the current uncertainty in those rankings, to update the season odds for each team. Table 4 below gives the update for the Big Ten conference and Table 5 shows the updated Big Ten win distribution matrix.

Note that all the rankings listed next to each team refer to my computer's power rankings and not the national polls.

Table 3: Updated Big Ten rankings, expected wins, strengths of schedule and season odds following Week Five.

Table 4: Updated Big Ten win distribution matrix after Week Five.

At the beginning of the season, my analysis concluded that there were six primary Big Ten contenders, each of which had at least a 10% chance to make the Big Ten Championship Game. One month into the season the picture has shifted slightly, but my calculations have the same six teams at the top of the Big Ten odds table.

Of those six teams, the No. 8 Iowa Hawkeyes (33% odds to make the Big Ten Championship Game) saw their ranking notch up simply by taking the weekend off. Other than Iowa, it was No. 3 Ohio State (59%) which had the best week by covering over Michigan State enabling their odds to jump up 16 percentage points.

Of the remaining four contenders, only No. 13 USC (11%) covered this weekend in a home game against No. 55 Wisconsin (0.55%). No. 9 Penn State (32%) struggled at home against No. 38 Illinois (3.7%). No. 15 Oregon (22%) had troubling pulling away from No. 91 UCLA (0%), and No. 23 Michigan (13%) was barely on the winning side versus No. 22 Minnesota (0.8%). 

Of the remaining victorious Big Ten teams, No. 27 Indiana (9.8%) was most impressive in a 14-point home win over No. 29 Maryland (0.5%). With a 5-0 record and the current easiest overall conference schedule, you don't have to squint much to see the Hoosiers as a potential dark horse contender for the Big Ten Championship Game.

In other action, No. 40 Rutgers (5.6%) survived a test from the visiting No. 21 Washington Huskies (3.8%) while No. 20 Nebraska (4.2%) won and covered at No. 95 Purdue (0.02%).

Remaining Schedule for Michigan State

The overall picture for the Spartans got a bit darker this weekend. Not only did Michigan State fail to cover, but neither did previous opponents Boston College or Maryland. To make matters worse, future opponents Illinois, Indiana, and Rutgers all had a good weekend.

When the dust settled and an image started to appear, the Green and White dropped 20 places in my power ranking down to No. 59. My simulation currently gives Michigan State a 1% chance to make the Big Ten Championship Game, a 0.2% to win the Big Ten, a 1.5% chance to make the playoffs, and a 1-in-10,000 chance to win the National Championship.

The Spartans' expected win total is down to 5.60 while the odds to qualify for a bowl are now 50%.

Figure 3 below gives my computer's updated projections for the point spreads and victory odds for the Spartans' remaining seven games. As a reference, the projected odds from my preseason calculations and the values from last week are also shown in Figure 3.

Figure 3: Updated odds and spread projections for Michigan State's remaining games, following Week Five and based on a 50,000 cycle Monte Carlo simulation. The odds calculated last week are shown as a reference.

As mentioned above, everything looks tougher after Week Five. The Spartans project as roughly a 10-14 point underdog in each of the next three games. That said, the early line for next week's game at Oregon has opened at +24 for the Spartans, meaning that the situation is even worse than my calculations suggest.

I stand by my computer that the opening Oregon spread is too high, but either way, winning on the road on the west coast is going to be a major challenge. Michigan State then gets a bye week, followed by the two tough games at home against Iowa (-11) and at Michigan (-9.5). 

Based on my projected spreads, it is 50-50 as to whether the Spartans can get pick up at least one win in the month of October. If Michigan State does wind up 3-5 going into the final third of the season, the biggest hurdle would likely be the mental burden of recovering from a five-game losing streak.

As for those final four games, the home game with Purdue (+9.5) continues to look very winnable, and the road game at Illinois (-6.5) continues to look problematic. Unfortunately, the other two home games against undefeated Indiana (-3.5) and undefeated Rutgers (-1.5) are both trending towards games where the Spartans are the narrow underdog instead of a narrow favorite.

As of today, the most likely path to a bowl game is for the Spartans to beat Purdue, gain at least a split with Indiana and Rutgers, and find a way to pull an upset in at least one of the remaining four contests.

National Overview

In today's final segment for today, let's take a look at the image on a national scale and check in on the action that is most likely to impact the coming postseason. Table 5 below is my updated college football playoff leaderboard following Week Four. 

The teams are listed in order of my projected odds for each team to make the playoffs. I have also included my power ranking, strength of record, strengths of schedule, conference championship odds, and national title odds, all based on the most recent results of my full-season simulation.

Table 5: College Football playoff leaderboard following the action of Week Four.

The biggest story nationally this weekend was No. 1 Alabama's thrilling victory over No. 4 Georgia. As a result the Crimson Tide reclaimed the top spot in my power rankings and now own the best odds to make the SEC title game (66%).

In other SEC action, No. 2 Texas failed to cover against No. 77 Mississippi State, but the Longhorns appear to be on a collision course with Alabama in the SEC Championship Game (48% odds). I currently project that both teams will run the table.

The other major news was No. 19 Kentucky's upset win at No. 7 Mississippi. The Rebel's playoff odds have been cut in half, down to 28%, which is now only the sixth best playoff odds in the SEC. This week's simulation suggest that only four SEC teams may be selected for the playoffs and right now Alabama (94%), Texas (80%), Georgia (69%), and Tennessee (55%) have the inside track.

The picture in the Big 12 also shifted significantly due in large part to the three upsets highlighted above in Table 1: No. 48 Arizona over No. 31 Utah, No. 36 Colorado over No. 30 UCF, and No. 18 BYU over No. 34 Baylor. No. 17 Kansas State managed to stay in the Big 12 lead pack thanks to a win over No. 33 Oklahoma State.

No. 5 Iowa State blanked No. 110 Houston and thus increased the lead in odds to make the Big 12 Championship (66%). BYU (50%) is now the most likely team to join the Cyclones with Colorado (24%), Kansas State (17%), and Arizona (10%) rounding out the top five.

There were technically no upsets in the ACC this week, but the top three teams all struggled to some extent. No. 10 Miami and No. 28 Boston College both barely escaped against No. 25 Virginia Tech and No. 51 Western Kentucky, while No. 14 Louisville lost and failed to cover against No. 11 Notre Dame.

These results essentially cancelled out leaving Miami (57%) with the best odds to make the ACC Title game, followed by Louisville (46%) and Boston College (21%). 

These underwhelming performances have provided a chance for No. 39 Clemson (20%) and No. 42 Southern Methodist (16%) to get back into the conference race thanks to big wins over No. 79 Stanford and No. 69 Florida State, respectively. Even Virginia Tech (12%) with a 2-3 record overall has a shot, in large part due to a soft remaining schedule where the Hokies project to be favored in all seven remaining games.

Finally, Table 6 gives an update on the most likely teams to also qualify for a spot in the playoffs from the slightly different world of the Group of Five.

Table 6: Group of Five Leaderboard following the action of Week Four.

The top four teams on the leaderboard remain unchanged as No. 35 UNLV (28% odds to make the playoffs), No. 37 James Madison (22%), No. 43 Boise State (16%), and No. 52 Army (7%) all won big this weekend. There is close to a 75% chance that one of those four teams end up making the playoffs.

As Figure 2 above showed, it was also a big weekend for No. 32 Tulane (6%) and No. 73 Navy (3%) both of which jumped into the top six on my leaderboard thanks to big wins over No. 82 South Florida and No. 106 UAB respectively.

Against all odds, we've made it to the end for today. I certainly used a lot of (electronic) ink in my attempt to make sense of the current college football picture. I will be back later in the week for another installment of Bad Betting Advice.