At the beginning of the season, I had this Saturday night's game between the Michigan State Spartans and the Boston College Eagles circled on my calendar. My expectation was that the Spartans would be 2-1 entering the game with a loss at Maryland on the resume, but with an opportunity to score a nice non-conference road victory in the city of Boston.
So far in 2024 both the Spartans and the Eagles have been a pleasant surprise. Instead of 2-1, Michigan State is undefeated and hoping to stay that way. If the Spartans were to get the win and move to 4-0, it would most likely translate into a top 25 ranking. Michigan State would once again experience life in the fast lane on both the national and Big Ten scheme.
But Boston College own an even stronger start due to a win at Florida State and a competitive loss at top 10 Missouri. As a result, this game looks tougher for the Spartans than expected when we were reviewing the schedule over the summer.
I can't tell you why, exactly, but this situation has given me a peaceful, easy feeling about this weekend's game. With three wins already in the bank, it feels like the Spartans are playing with house money. While a win would certainly be great, I won't be feeling much heartache if they were to lose.
Head Coach Jonathan Smith is still the new kid in town, but based on the way the Spartans have looked in just the first month of his tenure, my concerns about the future of the program are already gone. In the long run, I believe that he is going to build a successful if not very successful program in East Lansing.
Saturday night's is a big game under the bright lights. A victory would be huge. I am not sure how long it is going to take, but one of these nights, Coach Smith is going to win that huge game with Michigan State. Then I suspect that he will then win another, and another, and another.
But maybe, just maybe, one of those night will be this Saturday.
MSU Prediction
Saturday night's contest between the Spartans and the Eagles will mark just the seventh game between the two schools and only the fourth match up since 1950.
Michigan State went 0-2-1 against Boston College in the 1930s and 1940s. The two schools split a home-at-home series in the 1990s. Most recently, Michigan State lost to Boston College in the 2007 Champs Bowl. The Eagles were led in that game by future top three NFL pick, quarterback Matt Ryan.
The Vegas spread opened with Michigan State as a 6.5-point underdog, which corresponds to a 32% chance that the Spartans can steal an upset win. The over/under for the game is set at 45.5.
When I take all of the preseason data and the results from the first three weeks of the season and run them through my computer, my machine is slightly less optimistic than the bookmakers in Las Vegas. It gives a final score prediction of Boston College 27, Michigan State 17.
The Spartans have been solid over the last two weeks after a slow start in week one. While the direction of the program seems to be decisively pointed upwards, that does not mean that the road ahead will be smooth. It seems likely that the uptick in the competition this week will be enough to force the Spartans back down to earth.
Big Ten Overview
Table 1 below gives a full summary of the action in the Big Ten in Week Four, including my projected scores, the opening point spread, and the computers' projected point differentials.
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| Table 1: Summary of Big Ten action in Week Four, including my algorithms' projected scores. The teams shaded in green are projected to cover by my algorithm. The teams shaded red are projected to cover by the FPI. |
Week Four brings a total of 11 games involving Big Ten teams. Maryland, Oregon, and Wisconsin have a bye and will be taking it easy this week. Seven Big Ten schools are wrapping up non-conference play, and the remaining eight schools start Big Ten conference play.
On the non-conference slate, Penn State (-48.5), Ohio State (-39), and Indiana (-27.5) are all huge favorites against Group of Five teams while UCLA (+22.5) is a huge underdog on the road at LSU. The other three contests, including Michigan State (+6.5) at Boston College, involve a Big Ten team as the road underdog.
Purdue (+6) travels to Oregon State where at least one team will redeem themselves after a blowout loss to an in-state rival last week. Rutgers (+7.5) faces a stiff challenge at Virginia Tech.
In conference play, Northwestern (-10) is a double digit underdog at Washington, but the other three games have interesting conference race implications.
Illinois travels to Nebraska (-9) and both schools are off to better-than-expected starts. In fact, the Huskers have risen to No. 12 in my current power ranking and my computer projects them a possible conference contender. If Nebraska can get the win it will solidify their position as a possible dark horse.
Iowa travels to Minnesota (+2.5) and the winner this year will get more than just a statue of a pig. While both teams are 2-1, they are also both in the top 20 of my power ranking with double-digit odds to make the conference championship game. The winner here will also get to stay in the fast lane of the conference race. My compute likes the Golden Gophers in the upset.
The biggest conference game on the schedule is USC at Michigan. While the Wolverines will not require a hotel in California for this game, the Maize and Blue are still a 6-point underdog. The Trojans are off to a great start so far in 2024. My algorithm current ranks them No. 7 nationally with the second best odds (34%) make the Big Ten behind only Ohio State (40%).
If the Trojans get the win on the road, the rest of the schedule will make them a tough team to catch for a top two spot in the conference standings. Meanwhile, a second loss for the Wolverines, especially if it is by double digits, could send Michigan into a tail spin.
If Michigan sinks to 2-2, the conversation in Ann Arbor would shift from whether or not the defending National Champions* can compete for a Big Ten title or a playoff berth to simply if they can qualify for a bowl game. If this comes to pass on Saturday, Wolverine desperados exiting the Big House will be issued a one-way ticket on the bitter creek down to the sad café.
The Michigan/USC game will also be an interesting test of early season metrics. My algorithm agrees almost perfectly with the opening spread. EPSN's FPI has the Trojans only favored by three points while Bill Connelly's SP+ actually has the Wolverines favored by four points. I guess we will see which system gets it right.
Other Notable National Action
Table 2 below summarizes the notable action in the rest of the college football scene in Week Four.
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| Table 2: Summary of other notable action in Week Four including my algorithms' projected scores. |
Most of the current SEC playoff contenders are either taking it easy on a bye week or are 20-point or more favorites. The lone exception is Tennessee at Oklahoma (+7). Both teams sit at 3-0 in the standings, but the Volunteers project to have a much better shot to make the SEC title game (22% versus 2.6%). The Sooners could flip that script with an upset win.
In the Big 12, I currently have the top six teams ranked from No. 11 (Kansas State) to No. 25 (Baylor) and Week Four may start to provide some separation at the top. Kansas State (-7) has a slightly tricky road test at No. 44 BYU. But the bigger game on the schedule is No. 13 Utah at No. 22 Oklahoma State (-2.5). My computer likes the Utes in an upset.
In ACC action, Miami is off to a strong start and is the clear favorite to claim a playoff spot. The Hurricanes travel to Tampa to face South Florida (+16.5) that just might prove interesting. Louisville current sits in second place on my ACC leaderboard, but the Cardinals have not been tested so far in 2024. Georgia Tech (+10) will pay Louisville a visit this week, which should provide more clarity.
Clemson has sank to No. 41 in my power rankings and down to fifth place on my ACC leaderboard. The Tigers can get a small boost of confidence this weekend if they can survive a visit from North Carolina State (-15.5).
The remaining of the games in Table 2 feature Group of Five teams vying for an automatic bid to the new 12-team playoff. UNLV (22% odds to make the playoffs) and Boise State (15%) are in the top three of my current Group of Five leaderboard, but the Rebels have a bye this week while the Broncos face Portland State (+56 projected) from the FCS.
My second-ranked Group of Five team, Memphis (17%) will have a challenge this week at Navy (+11). In other AAC action, Army (7%) looks to get a win against Rice (+5) , while Tulane (4.3%) is a three-point favorite at Louisiana (1.9%).
The remaining games of note all involve MAC schools trying to build on the conference's early season momentum. Northern Illinois (8% odds and fourth place) hosts Buffalo (+15) and should get a win. Toledo (2.2%) is a pick'em at Western Kentucky, while Bowling Green (1.2%) faces a big challenge at Texas A&M (-23).
Picks of the Week
The sections above highlighted several potential upsets and recommended picks against the spread. Figure 1 below gives an overview summary of all my computer's projections for the week in comparison to the opening Vegas spread. The same data generated by EPSN's Football Power Index is shown in Figure 2.
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| Figure 2: Comparison of the projected final margins of victory based on ESPN's FPI to the opening Vegas lines for Week Four. |
A brief explanation of how to read these figures can be found in Week One's Bad Betting Advice column. This week's upset picks (the games appearing to the left of the vertical red lines in both figures) are summarized below in Table 3.
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| Table 3: Summary of upset picks for Week Four. |
My algorithm was aggressive on the upset front last week and got burned with just a 2-7 record. But, it is ready to be hurt again with 10 new upset picks this week including Arizona State over Texas Tech (-3.5), California over Florida State (-3), Minnesota over Iowa (-2.5), and Utah over Oklahoma State (-2.5). The FPI agrees with two of my computer's picks and adds Southern Methodist over TCU (-2).
A simple simulation of the week's games suggests that a total of 12.7 plus-or-minus 2.9 upsets out of 53 games is most likely. That said, the total number of upsets so far in 2024 (36), is more than seven games over expectation (28.4).
The games shown above in Figures 1 and 2 which fall outside of either set of dashed diagonal lines make up the set of suggested bets against the spread. Those selections are summarized below in Table 4
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In contrast to the upset table, my analysis only results in three total suggested bets this week. Notably, the computers see the lines for Texas (-45) and Ohio State (-39) to be too high.
Finally, Table 5 below summarizes my computer's recommended point total bets for the week.
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| Table 5: Recommended total points bets (over/under) for Week Four. Note the picks labeled as "locks" are at a higher level of confidence. |
This week my algorithm likes 16 point total bets, two of which are considered "locks." The full set of over/under bets has performance at well over 65% over the past two weeks. The "locks" however, have performed poorly, mostly likely due to the inclusion of some SP+ data in the selection criteria which so far has not fared well so far this year.
That is all the advice I have for you this week. Until next time, I offer the best of my love. Enjoy the games and check back early next week in Against All Odds to see how the picks above panned out.
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Michigan State has a huge game on Saturday night in the city of Boston against the Eagles, but Dr. Green and White (@paulfanson) has a peaceful, easy feeling about both MSU's prospects and this week's advice.
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