2024 Week Four Recap: Growing Pains

The Michigan State Spartans' 23-19 loss to Boston College on Saturday night is certain to stir several different emotions in the hearts of Spartan fans. In other words, there are different strokes for different folks.

Some Spartans fans are livid over the missed opportunity. Michigan State led by a touchdown at half time and by the end of the game dominated the Eagles in almost every box score category. The Spartans played well enough to be 4-0 and knocking on the door of the top 25. But turnovers, red zone failures, a bad step by a safety, missed throws, and other bad decisions eventually caught up to Green and White.

Much of the blame for the loss falls onto the shoulders of sophomore quarterback Aidan Chiles, who missed several open receivers and threw three costly interceptions. The most damaging error was the interception thrown from the 36 yard line of Boston College with under a minute to play.

But there are still a lot of positives to take from Saturday's nights game. Despite the mistakes, the fact remains that the Spartan were consistently in the correct position to make plays. The failures that we observed were correctable errors of execution or poor luck and not faulty schemes or a lack of athleticism. For the first time in while, Michigan State appears well-coached and that feels like a different world.

While Chiles was certainly not perfect, he is also a 19-year old playing on the road, at night, in the rain against a power five opponent hosting their most emotional event of their season. On some level, it's a small wonder that things didn't go worse. He should be given a bit of a break.

Chiles' ability to create an offense with both his legs and his arm is like nothing we have seen in East Lansing for quite some time. At times, he displays out-of-this-world talent. But at this point in his career, he is currently a high risk and high reward player. 

But I recall a time when Spartan sophomore quarterback Kirk Cousins threw a bad interception on a potentially game-winning drive at Notre Dame. That guy wound up turning out OK, and I have a feeling that by the time Chiles' career with the Spartans is over, everyone will know his name as well. 

What we are currently witnessing are simply the growing pains of a young quarterback and of a new era of Spartan football. Despite the setback on the scoreboard, this team and program is headed in the right direction. 

Week Three Betting Results

Now it's time to review the results of last week's Bad Betting Advice, starting with the overview summary shown below in Figure 1. More information about how to read this figure can be found in Week One's edition of Against All Odds.

Figure 1: Results of Week Four showing the actual point differentials relative to the opening spread.

Fifteen teams overachieved this week by beating the spread by more than 14 points, including Iowa State, Kentucky, Miami, Cincinnati, Duke, Army, Virginia, and Iowa. Meanwhile only Texas A&M and Missouri underachieved by failing to cover by more than 14 points in a victory.

Week Four also produced a total of 14 upsets. Table 1 below summarizes those upsets and compares them to the picks made last week.

Table 1: Upsets in Week Four based on the opening Vegas line compared to the upset projections from last week.

The three biggest upsets on the board all impact the battle for the top team in the Group of Five and therefore the college football playoff field. Northern Illinois (-15) and Memphis (-11) felt the pain of defeat with losses to Buffalo and Navy. In contrast, James Madison saw their odds of post-season glory grow after the Dukes put up 70 points on North Carolina (-10.5).

Other notable upsets in Week Four include Illinois over Nebraska (-9), Rutgers over Virginia Tech (-7.5), BYU over Kansas State (-7), Michigan over USC (-6), and Utah over Oklahoma State (-2.5).

My computer had a painful week on the upset front, going just 2-8 (20%) which brings the year-to-date performance down to 10-17 (37%). The FPI, however, went 2-1 (67%) and as a result saw its year-to-date record grow to 9-6 (60%). So far in this arena the FPI is really showing my algorithm who's the boss.

Table 2 below gives the results of the computers' picks against the opening spread.

Table 2: Results of the highlighted picks against the spread for Week Four.

The computers together had only three suggested bets in Week Four and two of those picks were correct. My computer was 1-1 (50%) in suggested bets but 26-28 (58%) overall against the spread. This brings the year-to-date performances to 14-10 (58%) and 103-89 (54%), respectively. 

My analysis of FPI picks went 1-0 (100%) while the full set of FPI picks went 32-22 (59%). This brings the year-to-date tallies for the FPI to 14-9 (61%) and 102-90 (53%), respectively.

Table 3 below gives the results of the point total bets for Week Four.

Table 3: Results of the recommended point total bets ("over/under") for Week Four

The performance of my point total suggested bets is the very definition of average. My "lock" pics went 1-1 (50%) while the full collection of suggested bets went 8-8 (50%). This brings the year-to-date totals to 6-13 (32%) for the locks and 46-35 (57%) for the suggested bets.

Updated Big Ten Odds and Expected Wins

Following the results of Week Four, I have re-run the full season Monte Carlo simulation using the updated power rankings, including the current uncertainty in those rankings, to update the season odds for each team. Table 4 below gives the update for the Big Ten conference and Table 5 shows the updated Big Ten win distribution matrix.

Note that all the rankings listed next to each team refer to my computer's power rankings and not the national polls.

Table 3: Updated Big Ten rankings, expected wins, strengths of schedule and season odds following Week Four.

Table 4: Updated Big Ten win distribution matrix after Week Four.

Another week of football has provided more clarity in the Big Ten race. Ohio State continues to be at the head of the class with the best odds to make the Big Ten Championship Game (42.5%), even though the Buckeyes failed to cover against Marshall. Penn State (26%) and Oregon (22%) are also in the top four after the Nittany Lion blanked Kent and Oregon spent a weekend on the couch.

My simulation suggests that it is likely that a total of three Big Ten teams will make the playoff. Ohio State, Oregon, and Penn State currently have the best odds.

A few teams felt the pain of seeing their prospects for a Big Ten title fade. Nebraska (4%) snatched defeat from the jaws of victory against Illinois. Minnesota (3.5%) took a 17-point loss at home to Iowa, and although USC (12%) scored a TKO in the box score at Michigan, the Trojans came up three points short on the scoreboard.

But the pain of the Corn Huskers, Golden Gophers, and Trojans was gain for the Illini, Hawkeyes, and Wolverines. Illinois (11.5%) is 4-0 and own a schedule that my computer projects to produce 10 wins. But the Illini are only up to No. 29 in my power rankings and have only the eighth best odds to make the Big Ten Championship Game.

Iowa (33%) jumped up to No. 11 in my power rankings thanks in part to the continuing strong performance of Iowa State, which defeated Iowa in Week Two. I currently project Iowa to be favored in every remaining game on the schedule except for the road game at Ohio State.

Michigan's win over USC has allowed the Wolverines (14%) to bounce back up to No. 22 in my power rankings. However, the Maize and Blue still have Oregon and Ohio State remaining on the schedule, as well as potentially tricky road games at Washington, Illinois, and Indiana. My computer projects that a 7-5 or 8-4 record is most likely for the Wolverines.

Despite the loss at Michigan, I currently project the USC will be favored, at least narrowly, in all eight of the remaining conference games. The Trojans' expected conference win total is just 5.48, so they are likely to trip up a few times, but a potential path to Indianapolis is still clear.

In other Big Ten action, last week the Washington Huskies lost to in-state rival Washington State. But the Huskies (12.7%) are up to No. 18 in my power ranking after a convincing win over Northwestern. They currently own the sixth best odds to make the conference title game.

Farther down the odds table, it was a good week for Rutgers and Indiana. The Scarlet Knights scored an upset win at Virginia Tech while the Hoosiers covered against Charlotte. Maryland beat FCS opponent Villanova, but gave up 20 points in the process. None of these teams are likely to challenge for the Big Ten crown, but any of those three could play the role of spoiler.

Right now that bottom three teams in the conference appear to be Purdue (which lost by 17 points at Oregon State), UCLA (which lost by 17 points at LSU) and Northwestern.

Remaining Schedule for Michigan State

The Spartans' loss in Boston only had a small impact on Michigan State's overall ranking and position in the Big Ten race. The Green and White actually rose one slot in my power rankings to No. 39. I current give the Spartans a 4.6% chance to make the Big Ten Championship Game and a 1.5% chance to win the Big Ten Championship.

Overall, however, a loss is still a loss, and it's a fact of life that some of Michigan State's metrics are impacted negatively. The Spartans' expected win total is down to 6.30 while the odds to make a bowl game have now slipped to 67%. Michigan State currently has a 5.7% chance to make the playoffs, and a 1-in-1,400 chance to win the National Title.

Figure 2 below gives my computer's updated projections for the point spreads and victory odds for the Spartans' remaining eight games. As a reference, the projected odds from my preseason calculations are also shown in Figure 2.

Figure 2: Updated odds and spread projections for Michigan State's remaining games, following Week Four and based on a 70,000 cycle Monte Carlo simulation. The odds calculated last week are shown as a reference.

In general, everything looks slightly tougher than it did last week. The Spartans' next two games versus Ohio State and at Oregon are going to be difficult no matter what. I currently project that Michigan State should only be about an 11-point underdog in both games, but that seems generous. The Vegas line for next Saturday's game against the Buckeyes has already come out close to two touchdown's higher than that.

Unfortunately for the Green and White, Iowa, Michigan, Indiana, Illinois, and Rutgers all both won and covered this weekend. As a result, all five of those contests look a bit tougher. Michigan State still projects to be favored at home against Indiana (+1) and Rutgers (+2.5), but the games against Iowa, Michigan, and Illinois now all project to have spreads between +6 and +8 for the Spartans.

The only good news is that Purdue (+11) continues to look very beatable, especially in Spartan Stadium.

Right my computer tells me that there is about a 70% chance that Michigan State can win at least one of the next four games. In this situation, the Spartans would only need to split the final four games to become bowl eligible.

Extending that logic further, there is over a 90% chance that Michigan State can win at least one game in the next six contests. As long as that happens, in order to make a bowl game, the Spartans would just need to beat Purdue and Rutgers at home to close out the regular season.

National Overview

In the final segment for today, let's take a quick spin around the country and check in on the action that is most likely to impact the coming postseason. Table 5 below is my updated college football playoff leaderboard following Week Four. 

The teams are listed in order of my projected odds for each team to make the playoffs. I have also included my power ranking, strength of record, strengths of schedule, conference championship odds, and national title odds, all based on the most recent results of my full-season simulation.

Table 5: College Football playoff leaderboard following the action of Week Four.

Teams from the SEC make up the top four of my current power rankings and comprise five of the top six slots. No. 2 Alabama took the weekend off, which allowed No. 1 Texas to assume the position at the head of the class, thanks to a rout of Louisiana-Monroe. The No. 3 Mississippi Rebels held their position thanks to a beat down of Georgia Southern while No. 4 Georgia was idle.

No. 6 Tennessee also had a nice weekend by virtue of winning and covering at No. 29 Oklahoma. On the other hand, No. 9 Missouri needed double overtime to beat No. 42 Vanderbilt and No. 34 Texas A&M just squeaked past Bowling Green.

My calculations currently suggest that the SEC will most likely earn either four or even five playoffs spots. Of the undefeated SEC teams listed above, No. 4 Georgia has the toughest schedule and may end up on the outside looking in.

There was a significant shake-up at the top of the Big 12 this week, as Kansas State was blown out by BYU and Oklahoma State was beat at home by Utah. Iowa State also dismantled Arkansas State to move to No. 8 in my power rankings.

Only four Big 12 teams have over a 10% chance to reach the Big 12 Championship Game. No. 8 Iowa State (49%) has the best odds, followed by No. 14 Utah (40%). Idle No. 15 Central Florida (40%) held onto third position with No. 21 BYU (25%) rising up in the odds table to the fourth position. My calculations suggest the only two Big 12 teams are likely to earn a playoff spot.

In ACC action, No. 7 Miami (61% odds to make the ACC Championship Game) and No. 17 Louisville (38%) maintained the top two spots on my leaderboard thanks to wins over South Florida and Georgia Tech. However No. 23 Boston College (33%) is still within striking distance. My simulation suggests that the ACC may only have one or possible two teams in the 12-team playoff.

Finally, Table 6 gives an update on the most likely teams to also qualify for a spot in the playoffs from the slightly different world of the Group of Five.

Table 6: Group of Five Leaderboard following the action of Week Four.

No. 48 UNLV took the week off while No. 40 Boise State pounded FCS opponent Portland State. As result both the Rebels (16%) and the Broncos (14%) held onto first and third slots of my Group of Five leaderboard. The remaining slots saw significant movement.

No. 47 James Madison (16%) scored the upset of the week at North Carolina and now have the second best odds to earn a playoff spot. The Dukes' rise is partially due to some painful loses elsewhere in the Group of Five.

No. 79 Northern Illinois (1.8%) could not ride the wave of momentum from the win at Notre Dame. The Huskies fell to Buffalo in NAC conference play. This loss, combined with No. 78 Toledo's loss to No. 66 Western Kentucky (6.3%) means the MAC is likely out of the running for a playoff spot. 

No. 36 Memphis (6.6%) also took a home upset loss to Navy. That leaves No. 56 and undefeated Army (7.8%) as the American Athletic Conference team with the best playoff odds following the Black Knights' upset win over No. 118 Rice.

Against all odds, we've made it to the end for today. I have been saved by the bell once again. Remember Spartan fans, as long as we've got each other, we'll be just fine. Can I get an amen? I will be back later in the week for another installment of Bad Betting Advice.