2024 Week Three Recap: Fun House

The Michigan State Spartan's 40-0 win this weekend over Prairie View A&M was pretty standard blow out win over an overmatched FCS opponent. But the game did provide on least one memory that will likely go down as one of the iconic plays of the 2024 season.

In the final seconds of the first half, Spartan cornerback Charles Brantley intercepted a pass in the end zone and proceeded to bob and weave his way across the entire field, running well over 100 yards to score a touchdown for the Green and White.

After watching this play I turned to my colleagues in the press box and said "that was fun." A few hours later while sitting in the Spartan Stadium Media Center, Coach Smith described the same play by saying, "That was exciting and fun."

It took me several more hours before the gravity of these two statements hit me. After two dark and painful seasons, Michigan State football is fun again.

Michigan State is 3-0 for the first time since 2021 and for only the fifth time since 2008. None of those wins were against world-beating opponents, but the program under Jonathan Smith suddenly has new life and new energy. 

One could feel that energy just walking around campus, enjoying the beautiful early fall East Lansing weather. Inside the stadium, the students were in their seats early and their numbers stayed strong into the second half despite the lopsided score. 

Yes, the house that was built by Biggie and Duffy and the house that was renovated and revitalized by George and Mark is fun again. It is no wonder that fans suddenly feel like kids at a carnival again.

Next week the schedule starts to get much tougher, starting with a road game at Boston College. Any college football season is roller coaster ride, full of ups and downs. There a good chance that the bottom is going to drop out for a while, leaving fans clinging to the sides.

But progress is being made. The program is headed in the right direction. For now, let's enjoy the ride.

Week Three Betting Results

Now it's time to review the results of last week's Bad Betting Advice, starting with the overview summary shown below in Figure 1. More information about how to read this figure can be found in Week One's edition of Against All Odds.

Figure 1: Results of Week Three showing the actual point differentials relative to the opening spread.

Sixteen teams landed in the overachiever category this week including Tennessee, Miami, Notre Dame, Texas, Texas Tech, Alabama, Oklahoma State, Oregon, Indiana, Kansas State, and Houston. Meanwhile only three favored team total failed to cover by more than 14 points, including upset loser in Mississippi State. The two underachievers which still won are Georgia and Michigan.

Including Mississippi State, only seven total teams were upset in Week Three. This value is more than one standard deviation below the expected value of 11 upsets. But both Week One and Week Two had an unusually large number of upsets, so the relative calmness of Week Three is an example of regression to the mean. 

Table 1 below summarizes those seven upsets and compares them to the picks made last week.

Table 1: Upsets in Week Three based on the opening Vegas line compared to the upset projections from last week.

The top four upsets on the board all involve Group of Five teams taking out Power Four schools as Toledo beat Mississippi State, Georgia State upset Vanderbilt, UNLV outlasted Kansas, and Memphis added to Florida State free fall of a start the season.

In the other three upsets were Washington State over Washington in the Apple Cup, Pittsburgh over West Virginia in the Backyard Brawl, and Central Florida over Texas Christian in a match-up that many casual college football fans likely don't realize is a Big 12 conference game.

My computer picked the wrong week to be aggressive in upset picks, as it went just 2-7 (22%) bringing the year-to-date performance down to 8-9 (47%). The FPI's more conservative approach resulted in a 2-1 record (67%) and a 7-5 (58%) year-to-date tally.

Table 2 below gives the results of the computers' picks against the opening spread.

Table 2: Results of the highlighted picks against the spread for Week Three.

In contrast to the upset picks, my computer's aggressive approach to picks against was more successful. My computer was 7-6 (54%) for the week in suggested bets and 30-22 (58%) overall ATS. This brings the year-to-date performance to 13-9 (59%) and 77-61 (56%). 

I will note that some of my computer's picks this week were hilariously wrong. My machine's faith Oregon State, Washington, and Purdue was clearly misplaced.

My analysis of ESPN's FPI data also performed well in Week Three. The suggestion picks went 3-1 (75%) while the FPI's total picks were just 27-25 (52%). This brings the year-to-date tallies to 13-9 (59%) and 70-68 (51%).

Table 3 below gives the results of the point total bets for Week Three.

Table 3: Results of the recommended point total bets ("over/under") for Week Three

For the second week in a row, my larger set of point total bets had a very strong week, going 15-6 (71%), bringing the year-to-date total to 45-31 (59%). However, my "higher confidence" lock picks went just 1-2 (33%) and continue to struggle overall with a record of 5-11 (31%).

My explanation for this weird result is that I used the over/under picks from the SP+ as a part of the selection criteria for my lock picks. But the SP+ overall is doing very poorly with point total picks relative to my algorithm so far this year.

Updated Big Ten Odds and Expected Wins

Following the results of Week Three, I have re-run the full season Monte Carlo simulation using the updated power rankings, including the current uncertainty in those rankings, to update the season odds for each team. Table 4 below gives the update for the Big Ten conference and Table 5 shows the updated Big Ten win distribution matrix.

Note that all the rankings listed next to each team refer to my computer's power rankings and not any of the national polls.

Table 3: Updated Big Ten rankings, expected wins, strengths of schedule and season odds following Week Three.

Table 4: Updated Big Ten win distribution matrix after Week Three.

Trying to make sense of the college football landscape in September is like into a fun house mirror. Depending on the week and the angle, teams look taller or shorter. The only constant is that the image is always moving.

Several Big Ten teams had a strong Week Three. Oregon finally started to look like the preseason top 10 team that everyone was expecting with a win over rivals Oregon State. Michigan State, Nebraska, and Northwestern all easily handled FCS opponents. Illinois, Iowa, and Minnesota all won and covered versus Group of Five teams.

Maryland managed a double-digit win at Virginia while Indiana went into the Rose Bowl and hammered UCLA.

If we shift the angle on the fun house mirror to look at the schools that did not fare as well, we see that Iowa and Michigan both failed to cover against Sun Belt opponents Troy and Arkansas State.  Both the Wolverines and Hawkeyes still look better than Washington, Purdue, and Wisconsin, the later two of which were blown out at home by Norte Dame and Alabama.

It is still too early in the season to get an undistorted image of the Big Ten race, but Table 3 above shows some interesting movement. Ohio State (40%) and USC (33.5%) continue to have the best odds to make the Big Ten Championship Game. Preseason contenders Oregon (23%) and Penn State (19%) also remain in the top five.

But two surprising schools have moved up into the top six this week. Nebraska (20%) currently has the third best odds to win the Big Ten, in large part thanks to the Huskers accension to No. 12 in my current power rankings. 

Similarly, despite a last second loss to North Carolina in Week One, the Minnesota Golden Gophers (15%) have shot up in my rankings to No. 18, thanks to posting back-to-back shutouts over Rhode Island and Nevada.

We will find out if the Gophers are for real over the next three weeks as they face Iowa, Michigan, and USC. As for Nebraska, the Corn Huskers schedule is more back loaded. Nebraska has a solid shot to e 7-0 in late October before heading to Columbus to face the Buckeyes.

Then there is the Michigan Wolverines. The Maize and Blue have failed to cover three straight weeks in a row and have drifted down my power rankings to No. 27, one spot below Maryland. Shifts in the relative strengths of certain conference opponents have also pushed Michigan's conference schedule to the second most difficult, behind only UCLA.

This combination of factors results in an updated expected win total for Michigan of just 6.29 games and odds to make a bowl game at a shocking 65%. My computer only projects the Wolverines to be favored in two more games this season: the homes games against Michigan State (+5.5) and Northwestern (+11).

While it seems likely that the Wolverines will rebound before the end of the season, the numbers do not currently paint a pretty picture. Even if Michigan can turn things around, the rest of the season in Ann Arbor looks like it could be more of a thrill ride than anyone expected.

Remaining Schedule for Michigan State

Michigan State's shutout win over Prairie View A&M, coupled with surprisingly strong performances by the Spartans' previous two opponents resulted in a positive bump in the metrics.

Michigan State rose up to No. 40 in my current power rankings with a new expected win total 7.05 and an 80% chance to make a bowl game. That win total and those bowl odds are currently the highest of all the state of Michigan based Big Ten schools.

I now give the Spartans a 6% chance to make the Big Ten Championship Game and a 2% chance to win the conference. Michigan State's current playoff odds are 12% while the odds of a National Title are 1-in-625 (0.16%).

Figure 2 below gives my computer's updated projections for the point spreads and victory odds for the Spartans' remaining 9 games. As a reference, the projected odds from my preseason calculations are also shown in Figure 2.

Figure 2: Updated odds and spread projections for Michigan State's remaining games, following Week Three and based on a 70,000 cycle Monte Carlo simulation. The odds calculated last week are shown as a reference.

As my computer's opinion of the Spartans has improved, so has the projected odds for the rest of the season. The next three games at No. 24 Boston College (-7), versus No. 5 Ohio State (-9.5), and at No. 17 Oregon (-9.5) currently project as the three toughest games left in the season. But none of those games now feel completely out of reach. The math suggests that there is about a one-in-three chance that Michigan State picks up at least one upset win in that span.

The back half of the schedule also looks increasingly more manageable. The Spartans now project to be healthy favorites over No. 85 Purdue (+11) and No. 58 Rutgers (+6.5) to close out the season and a narrow favorite over No. 33 Indiana (+1.5).

The remaining three contests against No. 19 Iowa (-3.5), at No. 27 Michigan (-5), and at No. 35 Illinois (-3) will be tough, but all three of those games appear to be winnable as we sit hear in mid September.

Even if the Spartans drop the next three games and fall to 3-3, the expected number of wins in the final six games is 3.2. A bowl game bid in that scenario would still be very much in play.

National Overview

In the final section for today, let's take a quick spin around the country and to see which teams had fun this weekend and which ones didn't. Table 5 below is my updated college football playoff leaderboard following Week Three. 

The teams are listed in order of my projected odds for each team to make the playoffs. I have also included my power ranking, strengths of schedule, conference championship odds, and national title odds, all based on the most recent results of my full-season simulation.

Table 5: College Football playoff leaderboard following the action of Week Three.

My current college football playoff leaderboard is dominated by the SEC. That conference currently boasts four teams in the top five and six teams in the top 10. Alabama has risen to the top of my current power rankings thanks in large part to a blowout win in Madison. 

No. 2 Texas, No. 3 Mississippi, and No. 6 Tennessee all crushed their opponents like a toddler crushes a bag of cotton candy. No. 8 Missouri won but failed to cover against No. 24 Boston College, and then there was No. 4 Georgia. After two very strong weeks to start the season, the Bulldogs barely escaped Lexington, Kentucky with a win this weekend. This result left my algorithm feeling a bit queasy about Georgia's future prospects.

In Big 12 action, No. 11 Kansas State scored a big win over Arizona and have ascended to the top of my Big 12 odds table with a 39.5% chance to make the Big 12 Championship game. No. 13 Utah (32%), No. 14 Iowa State (29%), and No. 22 Oklahoma State (20%) are all still undefeated and solidly in contention, but the biggest mover this week is No. 20 Central Florida (35%). The Knights edged TCU on the road and now own the second-best odds to play in the conference title game.

On the other side of the coin, No. 49 Kansas was upset again, this time by UNLV to drop to 1-2 on the season. The aforementioned No. 68 Arizona Wildcats were also considered a Big 12 contender in August, but they continue to drop in my power rankings as the weeks go by. Both teams now have under a 50% chance to even make a bowl game.

In the ACC this week, No. 10 Miami hammered Ball State and continues to have the best odds (46%) to make the ACC Championship Game. No. 15 Louisville (42%) did not play, but the Cardinals continue to hold the second best odds. Despite holding records of just 2-1, No. 24 Boston College (34%) and No. 31 Virginia Tech (16%) are next in line. Both teams covered this week with Boston College narrowing falling at Missouri as Virginia Tech survived a test at Old Dominion.

Finally, Table 6 gives an update on the most likely teams from the Group of Five to also qualify for a spot in the playoffs.

Table 6: Group of Five Leaderboard following the action of Week Three.

The Rebels of UNLV solidified their claim in first place (at 22.5%) on the Group of Five leaderboard with a win at Kansas. However, No. 29 Memphis (17%) shot up to the No. 2 spot thanks to the Tigers' win at Florida State.

The remaining teams currently in the top five (No. 32 Boise State, No. 67 Northern Illinois, and No. 46 Army) all were on a bye this week but continue to be teams to watch. Northern Illinois was certainly helped by the fact that Notre Dame suddenly looked competent.

The other big mover is No. 80 Toledo (2.3%) who jumped the line up to No. 10 in the Group of Five leaderboard thanks to the big upset win at Mississippi State. If either MAC team can survive the often chaotic conference schedule with one-loss or fewer, the strong non-conference performance of the league will look very nice on a potential playoff resume.

Against all odds, we have escaped this hall or mirrors and made it to the end for today. Hopefully everyone had fun and no one lost their lunch. I will be back later in the week for another installment of Bad Betting Advice. 

Social Media Copy

Trying to figure out the college football scene in mid-September is like a game of whack-a-mole. But it's fun to try. 

Enjoy Against All Odds from Dr. Green and White (@paulfanson) on the house this week. Wolverine fans might need to close their eyes.