Just in time for Halloween, this week is a good lesson that in life, some people go through life wearing a mask.
The kids on the block might be wearing a mask of Shrunken Head Bob, Beetlejuice, Catnap, Lady Deadpool, or Wolverine. Some of the old-school kids might be dressed as Prima Donnas. One of the local hoodlums might even pretend to be superman this week.
I hear that Big Ten commissioner Tony Petitti plans to dress as the cowardly lion this year. A lot of folks in southeast Michigan seem to be dressed as clowns, but that isn't just a Halloween thing. Sometimes those poor fools just make me laugh.
In the context of college football, even though we are now 10 weeks into the season, we still don't know who some of these teams really are. For example, a team dressed in red from the south will be visiting East Lansing this week. With an 8-0 record at the end of October, it must be Alabama, or Georgia, or Ohio State, right? Who is this masked team?
It turns out that the undefeated opponent visiting Spartan Stadium this week is none other that the Indiana Hoosiers. For several weeks, I believed that the Hoosiers were hiding behind a weak strength of schedule and were masquerading as a Big Ten contender.
But after seeing the Hoosiers absolutely dismantle Nebraska one week before the Corn Huskers pushed Ohio State to the brink makes me question this assumption. I now believe that Indiana is not just a dark horse Big Ten contender. The Hoosiers are a bona fide playoff contender.
As for the Spartans, we cannot be sure who they really are behind the mask either. After a sharp performance over Iowa two weeks ago, the Green and White once again let a potential victory slip through in an emotional loss in Ann Arbor.
Was the win over the Hawkeyes an illusion like an itch on a phantom limb? Is this team inching towards a breakthrough or limping to the finish line? Who are the Spartans, really, behind their paper mask? Are they simply masquerading as team good enough to play in a bowl?
This week will provide yet another opportunity to find out. Their mettle will be tested once again and they will be challenged to bounce back. Will the Spartans rise up or will they be knocked down once more?
Win or lose on Saturday, we will learn about more about who the Spartans really are behind the mask.
Michigan State Prediction
Outside of the annual blood feud with the Wolverines, there is no other team that Michigan State has faced more than the Indiana Hoosiers (70 times). The Spartans also have more wins (50) over Indiana than any other school.
Michigan State has only lost five times to Indiana since the mid 1990s, but three of those losses occurred since 2016 and two of them were in East Lansing (in 2020 and 2022). The Spartans are 17-7 against the spreads in the last 24 games, but the performance relative to Vegas in the last eight games is even at 4-4.
In summary, the Spartans have historically done against Indiana, but the last eight games have been quite competitive. I remember a time when the game against the Hoosiers was basically an automatic win. But these are not your old brother's and your daddy's Hoosiers.
Indiana opened as a 6.5-point favorite, which means that Michigan State has a 32% chance to pull an upset. This marks just the second time in recent history that the Spartan have been underdogs to the Hoosiers in East Lansing (2020).
The line has move slightly towards Indiana and both my computer and ESPN's FPI model are even less optimistic. In fact, my analysis of the FPI data triggers a pick for Indiana against the spread.
My computer spits out a final score of Indiana 32, Michigan State 19. I have picked against my computer over the last two weeks, but that ends today.
While it is certainly possible that Michigan State can rise up and steal a win, especially at home, it is hard to see that happening. The most points that the Spartans have scored against an FBS team this year is 32 points. Indiana's lowest offensive output of the season is 31 points.
Michigan State will have several opportunities to rack up wins in the final three games of the season, but this Saturday is going to be tough. All I can ask of the Spartans is that they show up and play hard. That would signal to me that they are still headed in the right direction.
Big Ten Overview
Table 1 below gives a full summary of the action in the Big Ten empire in Week 10, including my projected scores, the opening point spread, and the computers' projected point differentials. Note that all rankings referenced below are my computer system's rankings and not any of the national polls.
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| Table 1: Summary of Big Ten action in Week 10, including my algorithm's projected scores. The teams shaded in green are projected to cover by my computer. The teams shaded red are projected to cover by the FPI. |
No. 50 Maryland and No. 64 Rutgers both have the week off, which leaves a total of seven Big Ten conference games outside of East Lansing.
The most important conference game on the board is No. 1 Ohio State at No. 8 Penn State (+3.5). If Penn State wins, Ohio State is likely eliminated from the Big Ten race, leaving No. 6 Oregon, No. 11 Indiana, and Penn State to battle for the two spots in the Big Ten Championship Game. If Ohio State wins, it will remain a four-team race.
As a general rule, Indiana is in a weak position to win in a tiebreaker scenario due to a weak conference strength of schedule. If the Hoosiers are going to make the short drive to Indianapolis in early December, they will likely need to have an outright top two conference finish.
Oregon is likely to stay undefeated and on top of the Big Ten standings as long as they can stave off jetlag at No. 48 Michigan (+14).
The other five games on the schedule will not impact the conference race, but several teams are looking to secure a bowl spot with their sixth win of the season.
No. 27 Nebraska has the best chance to get to six wins as the Corn Huskers play host to No. 68 UCLA (+7.5).
No. 17 Wisconsin visits No. 18 Iowa (-4) with a bowl bid on the line, while No. 21 Minnesota can also become bowl eligible with an upset win at No. 41 Illinois (-1.5). The computers both like the Golden Gophers to get that upset.
No. 15 USC and No. 30 Washington (+3) are both just 4-4 on the season, so the winner of that contest in Seattle will be just one win away. Both teams are competing for a slot in a legacy Pac-12 bowl this year.
At the bottom of the standing, Nos. 78 Northwestern is a longshot for a bowl, but the Wildcats can eliminate No. 104 Purdue (-1) from contention if they can earn a win in West Lafayette. Both computer predict that the Boilermakers will get turned an upset shade of purple.
Other Notable National Action
Table 2 below summarizes the notable action in the rest of the college football field in Week 10. The table highlights the action for the primary contenders in each remaining power conferences as well as the Group of Five contenders for the likely final automatic bid to the playoffs.
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| Table 2: Summary of other notable action in Week 10 including my algorithms' projected scores. |
The national slate is a little light this week as several conference contenders have a bye, including No. 2 Alabama and No. 16 LSU in the SEC.
Elsewhere in the SEC, No. 4 Georgia should have little trouble versus No. 26 Florida (+17) as long as they can hold off on cocktails until after the game. No. 10 Tennessee is also a heavy favorite against No. 39 Kentucky (+15.5). No. 5 Mississippi will need to get a win at No. 38 Arkansas (+7) in order to stay in the race at all.
The most interesting SEC game is No. 19 Texas A&M at No. 13 South Carolina (+3). The Aggies are in sole possession of first place at 5-0, while the Gamecocks are three full games back at 2-3. Even such, my computer has South Carolina as the better team overall and is predicting a Gamecock upset.
In the Big 12, No. 22 BYU and No. 23 Colorado have the week off, while the remaining contenders are both double-digit favorites. No. 9 Iowa State and No. 20 Kansas State are not expected to have trouble versus No. 69 Texas Tech (+13.5) or at No. 99 Houston (+13) respectively.
In ACC action, Miami (-20.5) should get past No. 57 Duke, but there are three other games on the schedule with fascinating implications for the league race.
My computer continues to believe that No. 35 Clemson is only masquerading as an ACC contender, despite the Tigers' 6-1 record. Clemson is currently an 11-point favorite at home versus No. 24 Louisville, but my computer is calling for an upset. It seems likely that the Tigers' true nature may be revealed.
No. 33 SMU and No. 37 Pittsburgh are both in serious ACC contenders and this week the Mustangs host the Panther (-7). The game has the feel of a conference elimination game.
No. 14 Virginia Tech currently sits in third place on my ACC odds leaderboard. Vegas believes the Hokies will get a stiff test at No. 73 Syracuse (+3.5) while my computer especially expects Virginia Tech to cover easily.
In the race for the Group of Five spot in the playoffs, leading candidates No. 29 Boise State (-23.5) and No. 31 Army (-23.5) are both huge favorites at home.
The remaining American Athletic Conference contenders (No. 58 Navy, No. 36 Tulane, and No. 44 Memphis) are all on the road, but they are also all favored by at least a touchdown.
Picks of the Week
The sections above highlighted several potential upsets and recommended picks against the spread. Figure 1 below gives an overview summary of all my computer's projections for the week in comparison to the opening Vegas spread. The same data generated by EPSN's Football Power Index is shown in Figure 2.
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| Figure 1: Comparison of the projected final margins of victory based on my algorithm to the opening Vegas lines for Week 10. |
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A brief explanation of how to read these figures can be found in Week One's Bad Betting Advice column. This week's upset picks (the games appearing to the left of the vertical red lines in both figures) are summarized below in Table 3.
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| Table 3: Summary of upset picks for Week 10. |
My computer selected seven upset picks this week, four of which the FPI agrees with. Notable upset picks include Louisville over Clemson (-11), Vanderbilt over Auburn (-7), South Carolina over Texas A&M (-3), Minnesota over Illinois (-1.5), and Northwestern over Purdue (-1).
A simulation of the week's games suggests that a total of 13.1 plus-or-minus 2.9 upsets out of 47 games is most likely. The total number of upset seems small, but over a quarter of the FBS on a bye.
The games shown above in Figures 1 and 2 which fall outside of either set of dashed diagonal lines make up the set of suggested bets against the spread. Those selections are summarized below in Table 4.
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| Table 4: Picks against the opening spread for Week 10. The picks are listed in order of confidence score. |
My computer suggests a total of seven picks against the spread this week, with the FPI chipping in the picks of Indiana to cover against Michigan State (+6.5). That does not feel good.
Notable bets from my computer include Virginia Tech to cover versus Syracuse (+3.5), Boise State to cover versus San Diego State (+23.5), Army to cover versus Air Force (+23.5), and Iowa State to cover versus Texas Tech (+13.5).
Finally, Table 5 below summarizes my computer's recommended point total bets for the week.
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| Table 5: Recommended total points bets (over/under) for Week 10. Note the picks labeled as "locks" are at a higher level of confidence. |
My computer only produced four suggested point total bets this week, three of which meet the criteria to be considered "locks." One of the four bets is already correct on New Mexico State and Florida International combined for 47 points on Tuesday night. Hopefully the other three suggestions will be able to keep up.
That is all the advice I have for you this week. All I ask of you is that you think of me when you place your bets this week. Enjoy the weekend and check back early next week in Against All Odds to see how the picks above performed.
Social Media Copy
Can the Spartans bounce back after last week's tough loss? If they can, it will reveal a lot, as the Hoosiers are are not just masquerading as legit contenders. Hopefully Dr. Green and White (@paulfanson)'s suggestions this week are also the real deal.
https://michiganstate.rivals.com/news/dr-green-and-white-bad-betting-advice-week-10-masquerade
All I ask of you is that you think of me when you place your bets this week
Can the Spartans bounce back after last week's tough loss? If they can, it will reveal a lot, as the Hoosiers are are not just masquerading as legit contenders. As for my advice, all I ask of you is that you think of me when you place your bets this week.
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