Once upon a time, in a land far removed from reality, there was an emperor, metaphorically speaking.
The emperor was a proud emperor, and he his kingdom had prospered for a few years following a long drought. The emperor liked to brag to the leaders of the nearby kingdoms about the battles he had won and other amazing things that his empire had accomplished. The emperor liked to show off his jewelry, t-shirts, and other trinkets that commemorated those accomplishments.
More recently, however, the emperor has been forced change a few things up. Among other things, he has a new, more airy wardrobe that he insists is invisible to those who are not truly leaders or the best. Over the last few months, his closest advisors have insisted that his new threads look amazing, despite the strange looks from his citizens and the even stranger looks for foreign dignitaries.
This week, as the emperor prepares for a new battle against his closest rival city state, whispers are starting to grow louder that something is very wrong. It is growing increasingly obvious now to most that the emperor is not wearing anything at all. The most terrifying thing for the citizens of the empire is that they may have been naked this entire time. But the emperor continues to to strut around town, proud of his new clothes.
Maybe this analogy sounds mean. But I really don't think so. I have been pretty critical of the fake empire in southeast Michigan for their antics over the past few years. As far as I am concerned, through their own words and actions, they have been exposed. I aim to find the truth and I told you.
Everyone outside of Ann Arbor can see what's going on. They see two programs in the state of Michigan headed in completely different directions. The Wolverines have laughed all the criticism off. But they laugh because they think they're untouchable. Not because what we said was wrong. Their twisted logic will never be an influence on the rest of us.
The emperor and the team he represents have no clothes. With any luck come Saturday, that will be obvious to all who are watching.
Michigan State Prediction
The Michigan/Michigan State football rivalry began two centuries ago in 1898 and has been played a total of 116 times. The Michigan Wolverines dominated the first six decades, and as as 1949 they a record of 33-6-3 against the Spartans. The Wolverines were generous enough in those days to have allowed Michigan State to host the game a whole five times in that span.
But the series has been significantly more competitive since the Spartans joined the Big Ten conference in 1950. Over the past 74 games, the Spartans trail in the series just 32-40-2. By comparison, the Wolverine's record against Ohio State is just 31-40-2 in the same span.
Furthermore, Michigan has struggled over the past 74 years to beat any Michigan State teams with a pulse. Only eight of the Wolverines' wins have come against Spartan teams which won over 60% of the other games in a season. Only two of their wins came against Spartan teams which won over 70% of the other games. That happened in 1955 and again in 1989 only.
More recently, Michigan has won the last two games in the series and four of the last six. However, prior to that, Michigan State had won eight games over a span of 10. Since 1999, Michigan holds a single-game edge in the record, 13-12.
Relative to expectation, Michigan State has significantly overachieved this century against Michigan. The Spartans are 15-7-1 against the spread and have six upset wins over Michigan to only one upset loss (in 2005). Based on the odds to win each contest, Michigan State has won roughly three-and-a-half more games than expected since 2001.
Back in the summer, the projected point spread for this year's game was well over 20 points. A few weeks ago that line had dropped to under 10 points. Today, Michigan State is just a 5.5-point underdog. Historically, there is a 35% chance that the Spartans bring home the Paul Bunyan Trophy.
But that is based on a matchup between a generic pair of teams where the spread is 5.5 points. In this rivalry over the past 25 years, things have gone a bit differently. Michigan State has been between a 4-point and 10-point underdog to the Wolverines nine times since 2001. The Spartans are 5-4 in those contests, including wins in Ann Arbor in 2010, 2015, and 2017.
So how will this year's game play out? I personally believe that the most important two stats to track are the number of interceptions thrown by Michigan State's quarterback Aidan Chiles and the number of explosive run plays from Michigan's offense. There was one negative play in each category last week against Iowa.
If Chiles can take care of the ball and if the Spartan defense can neutralize Michigan's run game, I think that the Spartans win, possibly by double digits. If they cannot. It could be a sad day in East Lansing.
As for my official pick, my computer has the Wolverines winning by a single point, 22-21. For the first time ever, last week I went against my computer, and I was right. I will go ahead and roll the dice again on that strategy. The Spartans have the momentum and I think that they will ride that wave to victory: Michigan State 24, Michigan 14.
No matter what happens this weekend in Ann Arbor, the future in East Lansing still looks bright. The University and the athletic department have weathered multiple storms over the past several years. Hard choices had to be made. While the Spartans have not been perfect, by and large they have done the right things.
I am not convinced that I can say the same about the opponent on Saturday night.
To close out this section, I leave you with a quote from the late and great Sinead O'Connor:
"Whatever it may bring, I will live by my own policies. I will sleep with a clear conscience. I will sleep in peace."
Big Ten Overview
Table 1 below gives a full summary of the action in the Big Ten empire in Week Nine, including my projected scores, the opening point spread, and the computers' projected point differentials. Note that all rankings referenced below are my computer system's rankings and not any of the national polls.
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| Table 1: Summary of Big Ten action in Week Nine, including my algorithm's projected scores. The teams shaded in green are projected to cover by my computer. The teams shaded red are projected to cover by the FPI. |
Outside of Ann Arbor, there are seven other Big Ten games this week while the two cellar dwellers of the league, No. 74 UCLA and No. 103 Purdue have a bye.
At the top of the conference, No. 1 Ohio State (in my power rankings at least) and No. 6 Oregon are both 20-plus favorites at home against No. 29 Nebraska and No. 41 Illinois, respectively. It will be interesting to see if either road team can at least keep the game close.
The most interesting game on the schedule is No. 10 Penn State at No. 16 Wisconsin (+6.5). The Nittany Lions are trying to stay undefeated, but Badgers may still have control of their own destiny for a fairy tale ending with a home game against Oregon looming. My computer is picking Wisconsin with an upset win.
No. 11 Indiana will also try to keep their undefeated season alive. Next up for the Hoosiers is No. 32 Washington (+6), in Bloomington. The computers like the Crimson and Cream by double digits.
Farther down the standings, No. 19 Iowa and No. 15 USC will both try to strengthen their position in the bowl pecking order. Both teams are 14.5-point favorites at home against No. 76 Northwestern and No. 69 Rutgers.
That only leaves No. 43 Maryland at No. 22 Minnesota (-5.5). Both teams are more likely than not to earn a bowl bid, but the Terrapins especially could use a win to bolster their record.
Other Notable National Action
Table 2 below summarizes the notable action in the rest of the college football field in Week Nine. The table highlights the action for the primary contenders in each remaining power conferences as well as the Group of Five contenders for the likely final automatic bid to the playoffs.
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| Table 2: Summary of other notable action in Week Nine including my algorithms' projected scores. |
There are currently only two undefeated teams left is SEC conference play. By Sunday morning, there will be only one as No. 14 LSU visits No. 21 Texas A&M (-3) for sole possession of first place and a boost in odds to make the SEC Championship Game. While the Aggies are a narrow favorite, both computers have the Tigers covering and my computer even foresees an upset.
As for the other conference contenders, No. 2 Texas is a big favorite at No. 27 Vanderbilt (+19), but we've heard that tale before. No. 4 Alabama will try to stay in the race against No. 26 Missouri (+14.5) while No. 5 Georgia and No. 9 Tennessee are on a bye.
Mississippi is still No. 3 in my power rankings, so I do not want to count them out just yet either. The Rebels are not expected to be challenged by No. 62 Oklahoma (+19.5).
In the Big 12 race, current favorite undefeated No. 7 Iowa State is on a bye while the most likely challenger, also undefeated No. 24 BYU, faces likely the toughest remaining test at No. 38 UCF (+2). ESPN's FPI likes the Knights in an upset.
That would be good news for No. 17 Kansas State as long as the Wildcats can get by in-state rivals No. 60 Kansas (+10). The winner of No. 33 Cincinnati at No. 23 Colorado (-4.5) would also benefit from an upset at the top of the standings.
In ACC action, while it looked like a big game back in August, No. 12 Miami looks to cruise past No. 81 Florida (-21) and in the process maintain a firm grip on the conference lead.
No. 31 SMU and No. 18 Virginia Tech will both attempt to stay on pace with games at No. 57 Duke (+11.5) and versus No. 53 Georgia Tech (+9), respectively. No. 34 Clemson is on a bye.
In Group of Five land, there are two games that have major playoff implications. In the Mountain West, No. 30 Boise State travels to No. 45 UNLV (+3) and the winner will be the overwhelming favorite to win the conference with a great shot to claim the No. 12 seed in the playoffs.
In the other game of note, No. 8 Notre Dame hosts undefeated No. 47 Navy (+13). A win by the Irish keeps them in the playoff conversation, while an upset win by the Midshipmen could make them the new favorite to claim the Group of Five slot in the postseason.
In other American Athletic Conference action, No. 37 Army is on a bye while No. 35 Memphis (-19) and No. 40 Tulane (-7.5) look to stay in conference contention. In the Sun Belt, new favorite, No. 55 Georgia Southern faces at tough road game at No. 72 Old Dominion (-2.5) but both computers see an upset win for the road team.
Picks of the Week
The sections above highlighted several potential upsets and recommended picks against the spread. Figure 1 below gives an overview summary of all my computer's projections for the week in comparison to the opening Vegas spread. The same data generated by EPSN's Football Power Index is shown in Figure 2.
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| Figure 1: Comparison of the projected final margins of victory based on my algorithm to the opening Vegas lines for Week Nine. |
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| Table 3: Summary of upset picks for Week Nine. |
My computer selected seven upset picks this week, three of which the FPI agrees with. The FPI added one additional pick: UCF over BYU (-2). Other notable upset picks are Mississippi State over Arkansas (-7), Wisconsin over Penn State (-6.5), LSU over Texas A&M (-3), and West Virginia over Arizona (-2.5).
A simulation of the week's games suggests that a total of 14.9 plus-or-minus 3.2 upsets out of 56 games is most likely.
The games shown above in Figures 1 and 2 which fall outside of either set of dashed diagonal lines make up the set of suggested bets against the spread. Those selections are summarized below in Table 4.
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| Table 4: Picks against the opening spread for Week Nine. The picks are listed in order of confidence score. |
My computer only recommends two bets against the spread and my analysis of the FPI only adds three more. The notable picks here are Indiana to cover versus Washington (+6) and Notre Dame to cover versus Navy (+13).
Finally, Table 5 below summarizes my computer's recommended point total bets for the week.
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| Table 5: Recommended total points bets (over/under) for Week Nine. Note the picks labeled as "locks" are at a higher level of confidence. |
My machine has only eight picks on the board this week, two of which are locks.
That is all the advice I have for you this week. After I just finished sitting here and writing all this down, I now just want to go rest for a while. Enjoy the weekend and check back early next week in Against All Odds to see how the picks above performed.
Socia Media Copy
Some may argue that nothing compares to the Michigan/Michigan State rivalry. Which team will have a fairy tale ending and which team will be exposed? Dr. Green and White (@paulfanson) breaks all the Week Nine action down here:
Maybe I was mean to our friend down in Ann Arbor in this week. But I really don't think so. My goal is to provide the truth and I told you. Everyone can see what's going on. Some laugh 'cause they think they're untouchable, not because what we said was wrong.
Whatever it may bring
Everyone here knows what week it is.
When I start to prepare for one of the two pieces recurring pieces that I do each week, the theme that I go with sometimes will not come to me until a few hours before I start typing. Other times I skip my "cold open op/ed" section until later.
But this week, the phrase "The Emperor's New Clothes" as it pertains to our friends from Ann Arbor came to me weeks ago. Both the children's fairy tale and the 1990 song of the same name from Sinead O'Connor just fit perfectly with my current feelings on the Wolverines and the current trajectory of 2024 season.
I also have enjoyed flexing some of my GenX, 90s alternative music knowledge over the past few weeks. Sorry (Not sorry.)
Anyway, let's keep the hate train moving with this week's episode of Bad Betting Advice:
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