2024 Week Nine Recap: Opportunities

Saturday night's 24-17 loss to the Michigan Wolverines by the Michigan State Spartans looks like a lost opportunity.

If you would have told me prior to the game that the Spartans would outgain the Wolverines by 87 yards, that the Michigan State running back room would out-produce the Michigan running back room 204 yards to just 59 yards, and that the Spartans would only commit one turnover, I would have picked Michigan State to have won the game by more than two touchdowns.

But that is not how it played out.

Instead, the Wolverines eliminated many of the errors which have plagued their season so far, found a surprisingly competent passing game, and took advantage on some opportunistic trick plays to generate just enough offense to score 24 points.

On the other side of the ball, the Spartans failed to capitalize on the opportunities that they created for themselves in a dominant first quarter and especially on the empty first drive where they lacked the brawn to punch the ball into the end zone.

One could also argue that the brains on the Spartan coaching staff failed to utilize Aidan Chiles' legs or arm as much as they could have. I am not that one who makes a lot of money coaching football, but that also feels like a missed opportunity.

This is a game that Michigan State could have, and perhaps should have won. If the two teams were to play each other 100 times. I believe the Spartans win more than half of them. But that is not how college football works.

For head coach Jonathan Smith, it was a lost opportunity to beat Michigan in his first attempt. It was a chance to plant a flag for everyone to see about the different paths the two schools now appear to be on. However, in defeat it may be an opportunity for Smith to fully understand the nature and subtleties of his new in-state rivalry. This may prove to be the most valuable lesson of all.

At the end of the day, whether they want to admit it or not, this game was more important for the Wolverines than it was for the Spartans. Had Michigan State won, Michigan would have very likely finished under .500 and would have watched their in-state rivals play in a bowl game from the comforts of their own homes.

Rivalry Week is over and it is time to move on. I, for one, have had enough of scheming and messing around with jerks. For Michigan State, the season remains on track to exceed expectations. The goal remains to accumulate enough wins to qualify for the postseason for the first time since 2021. 

Based on what we have seen so far in Year One of the Jonathan Smith era, there will be plenty of opportunities for the Spartans to beat the Wolverines in the years to come. I think he knows how to take them. 

Week Nine Bad Betting Results

Now let's take the opportunity to check in on the picks that I made in last week's Bad Betting Advice article, starting with the overview summary shown below in Figure 1. More information about how to read this figure can be found in Week One's edition of Against All Odds.

Figure 1: Results of Week Nine showing the actual point differentials relative to the opening spread.

In Week Nine, 11 teams overachieved by beating the spread by more than 14 points including Notre Dame, Alabama, California, Arkansas, Pittsburgh, and Minnesota. In contrast, both Ohio State and Texas failed to cover by more than 14 points and yet still won.

Only 11 teams won in upset fashion. This was the first time since Week Three that the upset total was significantly lower than expected (by 3.5 games, according to my pre-week simulation). Table 1 below summarizes those upsets and compares them to the picks made last week.

Table 1: Upsets in Week Nine based on the opening Vegas line compared to the upset projections from last week.

This week's biggest upset was Kennesaw State's upset of Liberty (-24.5) which also marked the first win by the Owls as an FBS program. Other notable upset winners include North Carolina over Virginia (-5.5), Auburn over Kentucky (-3), and West Virginia over Arizona (-2.5).

My computer's brain went just 2-5 (29%) for upset picks this week, bringing the year-to-date performance to 27-40 (40%). The FPI did even worse, only going 1-3 (25%) and bringing its year-to-date record to 17-21 (45%).

Table 2 below gives the results of the computers' picks against the opening spread.

Table 2: Results of the highlighted picks against the spread for Week Nine.

In this case, the two computers showed more brawn. My computer went 1-1 (50%) in suggested bets and 29-27 (52%) overall. This brings the year-to-date performances to 27-24 (53%) and 241-219 (52.4%), respectively. 

My curated set of FPI picks flexed some muscles, going a perfect 3-0 (1000%) while the full set of FPI picks went 27-29 (48%). This brings the year-to-date performance for the FPI to 20-16 (55.6%) and 238-222 (51.7%), respectively. Hopefully some of these picks allowed someone out there to make lots of money.

Table 3 below gives the results of the point total bets for Week Nine.

Table 3: Results of the recommended point total bets ("over/under") for Week Nine.

My lock picks were 0-2 (0%) while the full collection of suggested bets went 4-4 (50%). This brings the year-to-date totals to an ironic 14-17 (45%) for the locks but 85-60 (58.6%) for the suggested bets.

Updated Big Ten Odds and Expected Wins

Following the results of Week Nine, I have re-run the full season Monte Carlo simulation using the updated power rankings, including the current uncertainty in those rankings, which provides the opportunity to update the season odds for each team. Table 4 below gives the update for the Big Ten conference and Table 5 shows the updated Big Ten win distribution matrix.

Note that all the rankings listed next to each team refer to my computer's power rankings and not the national polls.

Table 4: Updated Big Ten rankings, expected wins, strengths of schedule and season odds following Week Nine.

Table 5: Updated Big Ten win distribution matrix after Week Nine.

This week's action provided an opportunity for separation at the top of the Big Ten leaderboard. No. 6 Oregon (75%) continues to have the best odds to reach the Big Ten Championship Game after a 29-point win over No. 41 Illinois. 

No. 8 Penn State (46.5%) moved into second place on my leaderboard following a tough road win over No. 17 Wisconsin. In the process, the Badgers were practically eliminated from the Big Ten race, but Wisconsin is in very solid shape to earn a bowl bid.

My computer continues to have Ohio State at No. 1 in its power rankings. This is a bit surprising considering that the Buckeyes failed to cover and it fact almost lost at home this weekend to No. 27 Nebraska. My odds for the Buckeyes to make the Big Ten Championship Game (46.2%) are essentially equal to the Nittany Lions. 

The final remaining Big Ten contender is undefeated No. 11 Indiana (30%) which beat No. 30 Washington by 14 points. The Hoosiers are on track for a 11-1 record, but after Ohio State struggled against Corn Huskers on Saturday (who Indiana beat by 49), it is reasonable to ask if Indiana can possibly beat Ohio State and get to 12-0.

In the remaining three Big Ten games, No. 18 Iowa beat No. 78 Northwestern, No. 21 Minnesota beat No. 50 Maryland, and No. 15 USC took care of No. 64 Rutgers. The Hawkeyes and Gophers are now just one win away bowl eligibility and the Trojans are in good shape to get to at least seven wins as well. 

On the flip side, the Wildcats, Terrapins, and Scarlet Knights are now all underdogs to get to six wins.

Remaining Schedule for Michigan State

The Spartans' loss to the Wolverines provided an expected hit to their metrics as well. Michigan State dropped 10 spots to No. 54 in my power rankings. The odds for the Spartans for any Big Ten or playoff run are now close to zero.

The Spartans' expected win total dipped down to 6.10 while the odds to qualify for a bowl are down slightly to 73%. If four Big Ten teams make the playoffs, I would currently project Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, and Wisconsin to wind up in the Citrus Bowl, ReliaQuest Bowl, Duke's Mayo Bowl, Music City Bowl, and the Pinstripe Bowl. USC will fill a legacy Pac-12 Bowl slot this year.

If both Michigan and Michigan State finish the season with identical 6-6 records, I suspect Michigan would be invited to the Guaranteed Rate Bowl while the Spartans would stay at home and play in the newly renamed GameAbove Sports Bowl in Detroit.

Figure 3 below gives my computer's updated projections for the point spreads and victory odds for the Spartans' remaining four games. As a reference, the projected odds from my preseason calculations and the values from last week are also shown in Figure 3.

Figure 2: Updated odds and spread projections for Michigan State's remaining games, following Week Nine and based on a 60,000 cycle Monte Carlo simulation. The odds calculated last week are shown as a reference.

With just four games remaining and with the data generated by my computer becoming more stable, the projected spreads for the rest of the season have not changed much. The Spartans will be a longshot next week against Indiana (-11 projected, but it opened at -7) and a smaller underdog on Nov. 16 at Illinois (-4.5). The #math tells me that there is roughly a 50-50 chance that Michigan State can win at least one of those two games.

If the Spartans do drop both and are sitting at 4-6 with two games left, Michigan State will obviously need to win the final two home games of the season against Purdue (+15) and Rutgers (+4.5) to qualify for a bowl. The bad news is there is only a 55% chance that the Spartans win both of those games.

I remain optimistic that the Michigan State will go bowling.

National Overview

Let's wrap things up this week by taking a look at the full college football landscape and check in on the action that is most likely to impact the postseason chances of the various FBS schools. Table 6 below is my updated college football playoff leaderboard following Week Nine. 

The teams are listed in order of my projected odds for each team to make the playoffs. I have also included my power ranking, strength of record, strengths of schedule, conference championship odds, and national title odds, all based on the most recent results of my full-season simulation.

Table 6: College Football playoff leaderboard following the action of Week Nine.

The race for the SEC crown remains the most competitive of the Power Four conference with six teams having over a 10% chance to make the SEC Championship Game. No. 19 Texas A&M (46%) sits alone atop the SEC standings after beating No. 16 LSU (12.6%), but the Aggies remaining behind No. 3 Texas (49.5%) on my SEC leaderboard.

No. 10 Tennessee (32%) and No. 4 Georgia (32%) both took the weekend off and both remain within striking distance of the conference crown. 

No. 2 Alabama (16%) passed LSU on my leaderboard thanks to a shutout win over No. 32 Missouri, and No. 5 Mississippi (7%) kept hopes alive that the Rebels could sneak back into contention thanks to a win over No. 47 Oklahoma. 

Interestingly, my computer gives Alabama the best overall odds to make the playoffs (86%), despite the fact that the Crimson Tide has two loses. The combination of a strong power ranking, a strong current strength of resume, and a manageable remaining schedule makes this possible. 

In the Big 12, No. 22 BYU (79%) passed idle No. 9 Iowa State (74%) on my conference leaderboard thanks to a big road win at No. 40 UCF. The Cougars and Cyclones continue have a solid lead over No. 23 Colorado (23%) and No. 20 Kansas State (20%). The Buffalo likely eliminated No. 28 Cincinnati (1.7%) from the conference race while the Wildcats barely survived a test versus No. 51 Kansas.

In ACC action, No. 12 Miami (92%) continues to roll, this week against interstate rivals No. 82 Florida State. My computer still predicts that No. 33 SMU (41%) is the most likely challenger, despite the Mustangs one-point escape at No. 57 Duke.

That said, No. 14 Virginia Tech (27%), undefeated No. 37 Pittsburgh (21%), and No. 35 Clemson (17%) are all still very much in the hunt. Clemson was idle this week, while the Hokies crushed No. 60 Georgia Tech and the Panthers juiced No. 73 Syracuse.

Finally, Table 7 gives an update on the most likely teams to also qualify for a spot in the playoffs from the Group of Five.

Table 7: Group of Five Leaderboard following the action of Week Nine.

In Mountain West action, No. 29 Boise State (43%) edged No. 49 UNLV on the road to grab a commanding lead both in conference and in the chase for the likely No. 12 seed in the playoffs.

If Boise State were to stumble, the eventual American Athletic Conference Champion looks to have the best odds to claim the playoff spot. Idle No. 31 Army (23%) has the best odds of the AAC contenders with No. 58 Navy (10%), No. 36 Tulane (8.5%), and No. 44 Memphis (5%) all still in play.

The fact that Navy lost by 37 points at home to No. 7 Notre Dame will likely hurt the Midshipmen's shot at a playoff berth even if they do manage to win their conference.

Against all odds and by the look of it, we've made it to the end for today. Despite the fact that I did not study at the Sorbonne and that my doctorate is in engineering and not mathematics, I hope you can tell that I'm educated and I can program a computer. I will be back in a few days for another installment of Bad Betting Advice. Stay tuned.

Other Tables

The Spartans could have used just a little more brains and brawn this weekend. As a result it looks like lost opportunity. Hopefully someone out there used Dr. Green and White's (@paulfanson) advice to make lots of money.

MSU had a chance to make a major statement. Instead it looks like a lost opportunity. Hopefully at least someone was able to use Dr. Green and White's (@paulfanson) advice to make lots of money. Check out the weekly recap here:

I hope that my combination of brains and computer-aided brawn helped someone out there make lots of money. If you've got the inclination and have the opportunity, check out this week's edition of Against All Odds.

I hope that my combination of brains and computer-aided brawn helped someone out there make lots of money this week. It's too bad the Spartans didn't show just a hair more brains and brawn this weekend either. If you've got the inclination and have the opportunity, check out this week's edition of Against All Odds.