I am having trouble shaking the feeling of déjà vu about this Friday's game.
Last week, the Michigan State Spartans were preparing to face a top 10 opponent in a night game as a 24-point underdog. My computer and my gut both told me that the game was going to be much closer than the spread suggested. I thought there was a chance that the Spartans were going to show clear progress, even in a loss.
This week, the Michigan State Spartans are once again preparing to face a top 10 opponent in a night game as a 24-point underdog. My computer and my gut both told me that the game is going to be much more competitive than the spread suggests. I think that there is a chance that the Spartans are going to show clear progress, even if they lose.
See what I mean?
As the Spartans head to the Pacific northwest, fans should consider it a hunting expedition. Michigan State is on the hunt for a more consistent and error-free brand of football. The Green and White certainly took their shots over past two weeks, but they have not quite bagged the game that they have been searching for. They don't quite have their ducks in a row as of yet.
Getting a win against Oregon on the road will not be as easy as duck soup. But there are reasons to believe that this game can be competitive.
Oregon got off to a sluggish start this year with just a 10-point win over FCS-opponent Idaho followed by a 3-point win at Boise State. Last week the Ducks won, but failed to cover at UCLA. Oregon might not quite be up to the standards of their current No. 6 ranking. In fact, my computer only has the Ducks ranked No. 15.
There are also reasons to believe that Michigan State is still a bit underrated. The Spartan defense has been a pleasantly solid surprise so far this year. On offense, Michigan State has been explosive at times, but have had difficultly finishing drives without making a major mistake. The Spartans moved the ball on the Buckeyes in the first half. I see no reason why they cannot move the ball on the Ducks.
However, there are two factors that cut against Michigan State in this match up. First, the game is being played at 9:00 EDT on the west coast. I happen to believe that this type of travel and scheduling will be a slight to moderate advantage for the home team.
Furthermore, the one game this year where Oregon looked like the preseason top five team that everyone expected was in Week Three when the Ducks demolished their in-state rivals Oregon State in their own stadium. Current Spartan head coach Jonathan Smith is a both a former player and coach in Corvallis, and it is reasonable to expect a bit more sauce from the Ducks when facing their former Beaver adversary on the sidelines.
It is possible that these two factors could counteract the impact of the two teams being a bit closer to each other skill wise than the spread implies. The Spartans seem poised for a breakthrough performance on the big stage. While there should be no shame in taking a loss on the road to a top ten team, another blowout would not exactly roll off the backs of fans like water off a duck's back.
At some point, if a team continues to make mistakes like a border-line bowl team, that team simply is just a border-line bowl team.
Michigan State Prediction
The Spartans have faced the Oregon Ducks a total of seven times in a series that goes back to 1979. So far the trend is very clear. Michigan State has won all three games played in East Lansing and Oregon has won the four games played on the west coast.
The Duck won three true homes games in 1980, 1988, 2014. Most recently, Oregon won the epic 7-6 shootout with the Spartans in the 2018 Red Box Bowl in Santa Clara, Calif.
The largest spread in the series to this point was in 2014 when Connor Cook and company were 14-point underdogs to Marcus Mariota and his flock in Eugene. The Spartans could not hold onto a 9-point second half lead and wound up losing by 19 points. The Spartans have failed to cover the spread in the last five contests with Oregon.
Based on my source, the spread opened at +24.5 for Michigan State, which corresponds to just a 4% chance that the Spartans score the upset win.
I would basically like run the same playbook that I ran last week. While I cannot in good conscience pick a Spartan win, I do believe that this game will be closer than expected. My official prediction from my computer is Oregon 32, Michigan State 16.
With an over/under at 52.5 points, my calculations suggest to take the Spartans to cover and the under.
Big Ten Overview
Table 1 below gives a full summary of the action in the Big Ten in Week Six, including my projected scores, the opening point spread, and the computers' projected point differentials. Note that all rankings referenced below are my computer system's rankings and not any of the national polls.
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| Table 1: Summary of Big Ten action in Week Six, including my algorithms' projected scores. The teams shaded in green are projected to cover by my algorithm. The teams shaded red are projected to cover by the FPI. |
Illinois and Maryland are ducking all game responsibilities this week, leaving the remaining 16 Big Ten teams to play eight conference games.
Despite the current 20-point spread, the most interesting conference game this week is No. 8 Iowa at No. 3 Ohio State. My computer has a much higher opinion of the Hawkeyes than does the national media and it predicts a much closer game than the spread suggests.
While I do not expect an Iowa upset in Columbus, the impact of a win would be significant. The Hawkeyes do not face any of the other primary Big Ten contenders this year and are projected to be favored in all seven remaining conference games.
The toughest game left for Iowa appears to be a road game at No. 29 Maryland (+6.5, projected). If the Hawkeyes beat Ohio State, their path to the Big Ten Championship game is wide open.
As for the remaining primary contenders other than Oregon, No. 9 Penn State (-27.5) is likely to cruise past No. 91 UCLA at home, but No. 13 USC and No. 23 Michigan both face tough road tests.
USC is favored at No. 22 Minnesota (+8.5), but my computer has the spread close to a pick'em. No. 23 Michigan travels to Seattle for a National Championship Game rematch with No. 21 Washington (-2). The Huskies are narrow favorites and the computers both predict that the Wolverines will fail to cover.
Elsewhere in the conference, No. 27 Indiana has a great shot to become bowl eligible at No. 88 Northwestern (+11.5) and the winner of the game in Lincoln between No. 20 Nebraska (-7) and No. 40 Rutgers will be just one win away. The Hoosiers, Huskers, and Scarlett Knights are still in the hunt for a possible Big Ten Championship Game berth.
No. 95 Purdue also visits No. 55 Wisconsin (-12.5) but neither team is currently projected to make any sort of post season.
Other Notable National Action
Table 2 below summarizes the notable action in the rest of the college football field in Week Six. The table highlights the action for the primary contenders in each remaining power conference as well as the Group of Five contenders that are in the hunt for the likely final automatic bid to the playoffs.
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In the SEC, No. 2 Texas has a bye while No. 1 Alabama and No. 4 Georgia are not expected to be tested at No. 47 Vanderbilt (+23.5) or versus No. 68 Auburn (+23). The other three SEC contenders may get tested.
No. 6 Tennessee could run into problems on the road at No. 50 Arkansas (+13), but the machines both like the Volunteers to cover. No. 7 Mississippi travels to No. 16 South Carolina (+8.5) and the Rebels hope to bounce back from last week's home loss to No. 19 Kentucky. The FPI predicts that Ole Miss will cover, but my computer is going with the Gamecocks.
No. 12 Missouri is coming off a bye week which followed two tighter-than-expected wins over No. 28 Boston College and Vanderbilt. Vegas seems to have lost confidence in the Tigers as they opened as a 2.5-point under dog at No. 41 Texas A&M. In this case, both computers like Missouri in a road upset.
After a tumultuous Week Five, several Big 12 contenders including No. 17 Kansas State, No. 18 BYU, No. 31 Utah, and No. 36 Colorado all decided to duck and cover at home this weekend. Current favorite No. 5 Iowa State will try to stay undefeated at home versus No. 34 Baylor (+12.5).
A few weeks ago, I thought No. 48 Arizona was out of the Big 12 hunt, but last week's win over Utah has goosed the Wildcats odds to make the Big 12 Championship Game back over 10%. Arizona will try to keep the winning streak alive this week against No. 71 Texas Tech (+6). The computers are split over which team will cover in those two games.
In other Big 12 action, No. 30 UCF is ducking out of conference with a road game at No. 53 Florida (-1.5). The Knights are hoping to recover from last week's loss to Colorado. My computer is picking them in an upset.
In ACC action the two current favorites both have potentially tricky matchups. No. 10 Miami currently has the best odds to win the ACC title, but the Hurricanes will need to survive a long road trip to face No. 61 California (+11.5).
The team most likely to face Miami in the ACC Championship, No. 14 Louisville, has an even trickier game this week versus No. 42 Southern Methodist (+7). My machine believes both ACC favorites will cover, while the FPI's money is on the underdogs, at least against the spread.
No. 39 Clemson has been able to climb back into the ACC hunt after a rough Week One loss to Georgia. The Tigers should be able to maintain the current winning streak at No. 69 Florida State (+14). As for the other contenders, No. 28 Boston College is a slight underdog on the road at No. 67 Virginia (-3) and No. 25 Virginia Tech is favored, but has to make the long trip to No. 79 Stanford (+6). Both computers like Boston College to win in an upset.
In Group of Five action, two of the current top eight teams on the leaderboard have a bye this week (No. 45 Memphis and No. 51 Western Kentucky), and the remaining six teams are all favored.
No. 43 Boise State (-26) is a huge favorite at home against No. 118 Utah State while four of the other teams are all on the road. No. 32 Tulane (-13.5) travels to No. UAB, No. 37 James Madison (-14.5) travels to No. Louisiana-Monroe, No. 52 Army (-11) is at No. 121 Tulsa, and No. 73 Navy (-8) travels to No. 123 Air Force.
The biggest game in the Group of Five this week is No. 35 UNLV (-4.5) hosting No. 63 Syracuse. The computers both forecast a much bigger win from the Rebels, which would further solidify their hold on first place in the hunt for a potential playoff berth.
Picks of the Week
The sections above highlighted several potential upsets and recommended picks against the spread. Figure 1 below gives an overview summary of all my computer's projections for the week in comparison to the opening Vegas spread. The same data generated by EPSN's Football Power Index is shown in Figure 2.
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| Figure 1: Comparison of the projected final margins of victory based on my algorithm to the opening Vegas lines for Week Six |
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| Figure 2: Comparison of the projected final margins of victory based on ESPN's FPI to the opening Vegas lines for Week Six. |
A brief explanation of how to read these figures can be found in Week One's Bad Betting Advice column. This week's upset picks (the games appearing to the left of the vertical red lines in both figures) are summarized below in Table 3.
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| Table 3: Summary of upset picks for Week Six |
There are a total of six upset on the board my algorithm and the FPI agrees with the two most high profile picks: Boston College over Virginia (-3) and Missouri over Texas A&M (-2.5). My computer also recommends taking North Carolina and UCF.
A simulation of the week's games suggests that a total of 12.3 plus-or-minus 3.0 upsets out of 49 games is most likely. These values are almost identical to the ones from the last two weeks.
The games shown above in Figures 1 and 2 which fall outside of either set of dashed diagonal lines make up the set of suggested bets against the spread. Those selections are summarized below in Table 4.
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| Table 4: Picks against the opening spread for Week Six. The picks are listed in order of confidence score. |
All four picks against the spread are for games involving Group of Five teams. Wagers on both UNLV and Boise State to cover are notable here.
Finally, Table 5 below summarizes my computer's recommended point total bets for the week.
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| Table 5: Recommended total points bets (over/under) for Week Six. Note the picks labeled as "locks" are at a higher level of confidence. |
My computer gives a total of 15 recommended point total bets, five of which qualify as "locks." This is the most lock picks from my algorithm since Week One (which did not go well) so we will see if my computer finally has its ducks in a row.
That is all the advice I have for you this week. It is time to duck out so that we can all get ready for Friday night's game. Enjoy the weekend and check back early next week in Against All Odds to see how the picks above panned out.
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