2024 Week 10 Recap: Snowball

Michigan State's 47-10 loss to the Indiana Hoosiers on Saturday played out in a very similar manner to the loss to Ohio State back in Week Five. The Spartans got off to a surprising good start and looked like they might be able to trade blows and hang with a talented opponent.

But then, at some point in the second quarter, the wheels came off, momentum was lost, and things started to snowball. By the end of the game, the Spartans were buried and fans left Spartan Stadium feeling cold.

While I was disappointed by the outcome, I was not surprised. Indiana proved that they are a legit top 10 opponent. But I was surprised by the snowballing set of negative emotions from Spartan fan online following the loss. It seems a vocal sector on the fanbase now thinks the sky is falling.

In times like these, it is important to view the results of the season so far in their proper perspective. One of the reasons that I like to dive so far in the numbers is that they provide a truly unbiased reality check on what we are seeing on the field.

At the beginning of the year, the preseason rankings had the Spartans ranked in the mid 60s of the FBS, which is essentially where they sit today (No. 61 according to my computer). 

Back then, my analysis predicted an expected win total of 4.85 with just a 36% chance to make a bowl game. Furthermore, that was based on a schedule that my computer thought was slightly easier than the one the Spartans are actually playing by about half a win. In August, the Spartans' expected win total through nine games was just 3.5 wins.

Believe it or not, Michigan State is still slightly ahead of schedule. It may not feel that way, but that is what the unemotional, snow-cold numbers say. 

Yes, it is frustrating to get blown out by the elite teams in the conference, and it is more frustrating that one of those teams in a perineal doormat which was picked as the weakest team in the Big Ten back in the summer. It is also frustrating that the Spartans let two very winnable games get away in Boston and in Ann Arbor. 

But what I see is a well-coached team that has potential, but which lacks depth, experience, and consistent execution. The #math confirms that there is no reason to panic.

So while winter in coming soon the the upper Midwest, the Michigan State football program is not rolling out of control. Everybody simply needs to chill out.

Week 10 Bad Betting Results

Now let's cool off a bit and check in on the picks that I made in last week's Bad Betting Advice article, starting with the overview summary shown below in Figure 1. More information about how to read this figure can be found in Week One's edition of Against All Odds.

Figure 1: Results of Week 10 showing the actual point differentials relative to the opening spread.

This week, 10 teams overachieved by beating the spread by more than 14 points including Central Florida, Iowa, Mississippi, Southern Methodist, North Carolina State, North Carolina, and Indiana. No teams underachieved, yet still won.

I count a total of 20 upsets out of just 47 games, which is extraordinary. This is two standard deviations higher than expected, based on the pre-week simulation. Table 1 below summarizes those upsets and compares them to the picks made last week.

Table 1: Upsets in Week 10 based on the opening Vegas line compared to the upset projections from last week.

This week's biggest upsets were Texas Tech's win over Iowa State (-13.5) and Hawaii's win over Fresno State (-13.5). Other notable upsets include Louisville over Clemson (-11), UCLA over Nebraska (-7.5), Vanderbilt over Auburn (-7), Syracuse over Virginia Tech (-3.5), and South Carolina over Texas A&M (-3).

The fact that all 20 upsets occurred in games with less than a 14-point spread is also incredible. Over half of the games that opened with spreads under two touchdowns ended in an upset.

My computer was stone-cold accurate on upset picks, going a cool 6-1 (86%) which brings the year-to-date performance to 33-41 (45%). The FPI also did well, going 3-1 (75%) which brings the year-to-date total up to 20-22 (48%).

Table 2 below gives the results of the computers' picks against the opening spread.

Table 2: Results of the highlighted picks against the spread for Week 10.

The performance of the my computer against the spread leaves me a bit cold. It went just 2-5 (29%) in suggested bets and 22-26 (52%) overall. This brings the year-to-date performances to an even 29-29 (50%) and 263-245 (52%), respectively. 

My curated set of FPI picks went 1-0 for the week by correctly, and coldly, picking Indiana to cover the spread at Michigan State. The full set of FPI picks went 25-23 (52%). This brings the year-to-date performance for the FPI to 21-16 (57%) and 263-245 (52%), respectively. My algorithm is literally tied in performance with the FPI overall against the spread after 10 weeks and over 500 games.

Table 3 below gives the results of the point total bets for Week Nine.

Table 3: Results of the recommended point total bets ("over/under") for Week 10.

My lock picks were 2-1 (67%) while the full collection of suggested bets went 3-1 (75%). This brings the year-to-date totals to 16-18 (47%) for the locks but 88-61 (59%) for the suggested bets.

Updated Big Ten Odds and Expected Wins

Following the results of Week 10, I have re-run the full season Monte Carlo simulation using the updated power rankings, including the current uncertainty in those rankings, which provides the opportunity to update the season odds for each team. Table 4 below gives the update for the Big Ten conference and Table 5 shows the updated Big Ten win distribution matrix.

Note that all the rankings listed next to each team refer to my computer's power rankings and not the national polls.

Table 5: Updated Big Ten win distribution matrix after Week 10.

Table 4: Updated Big Ten rankings, expected wins, strengths of schedule and season odds following Week 10.

No. 1 Ohio State's win at No. 9 Penn State, coupled with No. 6 Oregon's 21-point win at No. 52 Michigan further solidified the Ducks (87%) and the Buckeyes (70%) at the top of the Big Ten leaderboard with the best overall odds to reach the Big Ten Championship Game.

Penn State's loss also means that the No. 7 Indiana Hoosiers (33%) now control their own destiny. If Indiana wins out, they are headed to Indianapolis. The Nittany Lions (10%) are not out of the race, but they are going to need some help.

Overall, Oregon and Ohio State meet for the title in 62% of the current simulations. The second most likely pairing is Oregon versus Indiana (23%). Four other combinations of the top four contenders are possible and all four have odds between 2.5% and 5%.

In other notable Big Ten action, No. 17 Minnesota upset No. 46 Illinois on the road to reach six wins and bowl eligibility. No. 14 Iowa also got to six wins by crushing No. 25 Wisconsin in Iowa City. 

The remaining three Big Ten contests also ended with an upset. No. 29 Washington took down former Pac-12 foe No. 16 USC, while No. 56 UCLA shocked No. 32 Nebraska and No. 77 Northwestern edged No. 108 Purdue in overtime.

Now both Washington (81% odds) and USC (65%) and in good shape to qualify for a bowl. Nebraska (72%) and Wisconsin (79%) are also on solid ground despite the setbacks to the Bruins and Hawkeyes.

Remaining Schedule for Michigan State

Michigan State's loss to Indiana caused the Spartans to fall seven slots down to No. 61 in my power rankings. The Spartans' expected win total has dropped to 5.83 and the odds to make a bowl have slipped five percentage points to 67%. 

These numbers do not look as good as they did prior to the last two games, but I expected an even bigger drop.

Figure 3 below gives my computer's updated projections for the point spreads and victory odds for the Spartans' remaining four games. As a reference, the projected odds from my preseason calculations and the values from last week are also shown in Figure 3.

Figure 2: Updated odds and spread projections for Michigan State's remaining games, following Week 10 and based on a 50,000 cycle Monte Carlo simulation. The odds calculated last week are shown as a reference.

As Figure 2 shows, not much has changed over the past few weeks regarding the projected odds and spreads in the final stretch of games following next weekend's bye. The fact the both Illinois and Purdue were upset while Rutgers remains on a four game losing streak helped to offset the Spartans' blowout loss.

With the Spartans now sitting with a 4-5 record, they must win two of the final three games to lock up a bowl slot. Michigan State will very likely be favored in the final two home games of the season, which is a big reason why the bowl odds are still well over .500.

Winning at Illinois will not be easy, but the No. 46 Illini are comparable to No. 50 Maryland, No. 45 Boston College, and No. 52 Michigan in my current power ranking. The Spartans won one of the those games and probably should have won the other two. There is no reason to believe that the Green and White cannot pull off the upset in Champaign.

If the Spartans do beat Illinois, they will have a great shot to finish 7-5, which would be a solid accomplishment in Year One of the Jonathan Smith era. Furthermore, Michigan State would very likely be looking down at the 6-6 Wolverines in this scenario. My current simulation gives Michigan only an 11% chance to finish over .500. 

Considering where both teams were just a few months ago, finishing ahead of Michigan would be far more than just cold comfort.

National Overview

Let's keep the ball rolling and wrap things up this week by checking in on the rest of the college football world and on the action that is most likely to impact the postseason chances of the various FBS schools. Table 6 below is my updated college football playoff leaderboard following Week 10. 

The teams are listed in order of my projected odds for each team to make the playoffs. I have also included my power ranking, strength of record, strengths of schedule, conference championship odds, and national title odds, all based on the most recent results of my full-season simulation.

Table 6: College Football playoff leaderboard following the action of Week 10.

The big story in the SEC was No. 12 South Carolina's upset of No. 21 Texas A&M, which was the Aggies' first conference loss of the season. This leaves five SEC teams with a single conference loss and four teams with two losses.

My updated SEC odds table still gives seven teams at least a 10% shot to make the SEC title game. Idle No. 3 Texas (54%) continues to have the best odds, with No. 5 Georgia (37%), No. 10 Tennessee (32%), and Texas A&M (29%) rounding out the top four.

The Longhorns have the best odds to finish conference play at 7-1, but there are several wild tie-breaker scenarios in play including a possible six-way tie for second place at 6-2. In these cases, No. 2 Alabama and No. 15 LSU appear to have an advantage based on the projected total records of all conference opponents.

In Big 12 action, No. 22 BYU and No. 23 Colorado both took the week off, which seems like a good decision considering the two other primary conference contender were both upset. No. 11 Iowa State fell at home to No. 55 Texas Tech while No. 26 Kansas State lost on the road at No. 92 Houston.

BYU (79%) now has sole possession of first place and by far the best odds to reach the Big 12 Championship Game. Iowa State (49%) and Colorado (43%) are tied for second with almost equal odds to make the Big 12 Title Game.

The Cyclones and Buffalo do not face each other in the regular season and the tiebreaker scenarios would therefore involve records against common opponents, which at this point in the season is still very messy.

In the ACC, it was a very good weekend for No. 13 Miami and No. 31 Southern Methodist, who registered wins over No. 54 Duke and previously undefeated No. 40 Pittsburgh. Furthermore, potential conference challengers No. 39 Clemson and No. 18 Virginia Tech both suffered upsets at the hands of No. 20 Louisville, and No. 65 Syracuse.

As a result the Hurricanes (96%) and Mustangs (85%) are tied at 5-0 at the top of the conference standings and have commanding leads for the two spots in the ACC Championship Game. The team with the third best odd is Clemson with ACC Title Games odds of only 6%.

My computer has been predicting a Miami/SMU ACC title game for the last four weeks and has also been steadfast in the idea that Clemson was overrated. Sometime my computer does see things before the so-called experts.

Finally, Table 7 gives an update on the most likely teams to also qualify for a spot in the playoffs from the Group of Five.

Table 7: Group of Five Leaderboard following the action of Week 10.

The top spots on the Group of Five Leaderboard remain the same as both No. 33 Boise State (47%) and No. 30 Army (23% won. There was a shake-up in the American Athletic Conference at No. 74 Navy took a bad loss to No. 105 Rice. 

Army (97%  AAC Title game odds) now appears on a collision course with No. 24 Tulane (85%) in the AAC Championship, and it will be a toss up between the winner of that game and Boise State for the final playoff spot.

If for some reason the Mountain West and AAC races go sideways, current Sun Belt favorite No. 64 Louisiana (6% playoff odds) and current Conference USA favorite, No. 59 Western Kentucky (4%) have an outside chance to sneak into the playoffs.

Against all odds we've made it to the end for today. Michigan State might be off next week, but I still plan to keep that ball of data rolling. I will be back in a few days for another installment of Bad Betting Advice. Stay tuned.

Other Tables

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Despite the loss to Indiana, Michigan State football is not rolling out of control. Dr. Green and White's (@paulfanson) advice is to just chill out. But did his betting advice leave you cold? Check out this week's edition of Against All Odds.

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From time to time, I feel the need to go into pep talk / Prof. Green and White lecture mode. Today is one of those times.

While I was disappointed by the outcome on Saturday, I was not surprised. I was concerned all week that Indiana is better than most people realize, and I was concerned that they were a very bad match-up for Michigan State. My intuition turned out to be correct. Getting blown out is never fun, but getting blown out by a top-10 team in rebuilding year is understandable. 

Following the game, my honest reaction was an internal shrug and the though that the team had an extra week to rest and prepare for the home stretch. I was honestly shocked to see home utterly freaked out some fans were online following the game.

The frustration from Spartan fans likely comes from three different sources. 

First, the Spartans were blown out by an average of 30 points by Ohio State, Oregon, and Indiana. As it turns out, there are four really good teams in the Big Ten this year, and Michigan State drew three of them. That is just crappy luck.

While the margins of defeat are ugly, the Spartans played competitive football in three of the eight quarters of the games against Indiana and Ohio State. This tells me that the potential is there, but the effort and execution are not consistent... yet.

Second, the Spartans let two very winnable games slip through their finger at Boston College and Michigan. While this is frustrating, both of these factors are simply the hallmarks of a team that is rebuilding and not of structural failure. Beside, if Michigan State was currently sitting at 5-4 or 6-3, the fact is the Green and White would be significantly ahead of schedule.

Third, I think a lot of fans are upset by the fast rise of Indiana. In the preseason, the Hoosiers were picked by many as the weakest team in the conference. Yet, a new coach, a bevy of transfers, and the easiest schedule in the conference suddenly has the Hoosiers knocking on the door of the College Football Playoffs.

This fact is certainly frustrating, it is also exceedingly rare. I will also point out that it is not so different than the season that the Spartans had in 2021 under Mel Tucker. The fact that a traditional Big Ten doormat is having their best season in generations has no bearing on the trajectory of the program in East Lansing. It might feel like it, but it doesn't.

So my message to Spartan Nation this week is pretty simple: chill the F out.

Trust me. I'm a doctor.

Enjoy this week's edition of Against All Odds.

Cold Open, Director's Cut

Michigan State's 47-10 loss to the Indiana Hoosiers on Saturday played out in a very similar manner to the loss to Ohio State back in Week Five. The Spartans got off to a surprising good start and looked like they might be able to trade blows and hang with a talented opponent.

But then, at some point in the second quarter, the wheels came off, momentum was lost, and things started to snowball. By the end of the game, the Spartans were buried and fans left Spartan Stadium feeling cold.

While I was disappointed by the outcome, I was not surprised. I was concerned all week that Indiana is better than most people realize, and I was concerned that they were a very bad match-up for Michigan State. My intuition turned out to be correct. Getting blown out is never fun, but getting blown out by a top-10 team in rebuilding year is understandable. 

But I was surprised by the snowballing set of negative emotions from Spartan fan online following the loss. It seems a vocal sector on the fanbase now thinks the sky is falling and that the Jonathan Smith hire was a mistake.

Hogwash.

Yes, the last two weeks have been disappointing, but the Spartans are clearly a much better coached team than fans have seen in East Lansing for quite some time. Most of the issues that we are seeing are due to a lack of experience and depth at several key positions. Smith has a proven track record and I am confident that he will build a program at Michigan State that fans will be proud of.

Furthermore, it is important to view the results of the season so far in their proper perspective. One of the reasons that I like to dive so far in the numbers is that they provide a truly unbiased reality check on what we are seeing on the field.

At the beginning of the year, the preseason rankings had the Spartans ranked in the mid 60s of the FBS, which is essentially where they sit today (No. 61 according to my computer). 

Back then, my analysis predicted an expected win total of 4.85 with just a 36% chance to make a bowl game. That was also based on a schedule that my computer thought was slightly easier than the one the Spartans are actually playing by about half a win. In August, the Spartans expected win total through nine games was just 3.5 wins.

Believe it or not, Michigan State is still slightly ahead of schedule. It may not feel that way, but that is what the unemotional, snow-cold numbers say. 

The frustration from Spartan fans likely comes from three different sources. 

First, the Spartans were blown out by an average of 30 points by Ohio State, Oregon, and Indiana. As it turns out, there are four really good teams in the Big Ten this year, and Michigan State drew three of them. 

While the margins of defeat are ugly, the Spartans played competitive football in three of the eight quarters of the games against Indiana and Ohio State. This tells me that the potential is there, but the effort and execution are not consistent. 

Second, the Spartans let two very winnable games slip through their finger at Boston College and Michigan. While this is frustrating, both of these factors are simply the hallmarks of a team that is rebuilding and not of structural failure. Beside, if Michigan State was currently sitting at 5-4 or 6-3, the fact is the Green and White would be significantly ahead of schedule.

Third, I think a lot of fans are upset by the fast rise of Indiana. In the preseason, the Hoosiers were picked by many as the weakest team in the conference. Yet, a new coach, a bevy of transfers, and the easiest schedule in the conference suddenly has the Hoosiers knocking on the door of the College Football Playoffs.

This fact is certainly frustrating, it is also exceedingly rare. I will also point out that it is not so different than the season that the Spartans had in 2021 under Mel Tucker. The fact that a traditional Big Ten doormat is having their best season in generations has no bearing on the trajectory of the program in East Lansing.

So while winter in coming soon the the upper Midwest, the Michigan State football program is not rolling out of control. Everybody simply needs to chill out.