Happy bye week Spartan fans!
Michigan State has the weekend off and once again it seems to have come at the perfect time. The Spartans are coming off back-to-back losses. The first was an emotional loss to the in-state rivals from down the road, and the second was a 37-point butt-kicking by yet another top 10 team.
The biggest concern coming out of last weekend's loss to Indiana is the health of sophomore quarterback Aidan Chiles. The good news is that on Monday, Coach Jonathan Smith told the media that he expects Chiles to be ready to play in two weeks at Illinois.
In the mean time, the good doctor recommends that the Spartan players, coaches, and fans just relax, ice those sore joints, and get physically and mentally ready for the final three, very winnable games on the schedule.
As for this week, data never sleeps, I am will continue to provide some insight (and a few betting suggestions) for the action in the Big Ten and beyond.
Big Ten Overview
Table 1 below gives a full summary of the action in the Big Ten in Week 11, including my projected scores, the opening point spread, and the computers' projected point differentials. Note that all rankings referenced below are my computer system's rankings and not any of the national polls.
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| Table 1: Summary of Big Ten action in Week 11, including my algorithm's projected scores. The teams shaded in green are projected to cover by my computer. The teams shaded red are projected to cover by the FPI. |
The Spartans are not the only Big Ten team taking it easy this weekend. Five other Big Ten teams also have a bye, leaving just six conference games.
The four conference contenders are all at home and are all at least 13.5-point favorites. No. 1 Ohio State (-38.5) and No. 6 Oregon (-24) are expected to have the easiest weekend while facing No. 108 Purdue and No. 50 Maryland, respectively. The computers both like the Buckeyes and Terrapins to cover the spread.
No. 9 Penn State (-14) and No. 7 Indiana (-13.4) are expected to get a slightly stiffer challenge versus No. 29 Washington and No. 52 Michigan. The computers are split on which team will cover the spread in the Nittany Lions/Huskies contest, but both machines are betting on the Hoosiers to cover.
In the other two conference games, No. 14 Iowa (-5.5) and No. 17 Minnesota (-5.5) are both looking to pad their bowl resume in games at UCLA and at Rutgers, respectively. The FPI is picking Rutgers to cover, but the computers like the favorites otherwise.
Other Notable National Action
Table 2 below summarizes the notable action in the rest of the college football landscape in Week 11. The table highlights the action for the primary contenders in each remaining power conferences as well as the Group of Five contenders for the likely final automatic bid to the playoffs.
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| Table 2: Summary of other notable action in Week 11 including my algorithms' projected scores. |
The race for the SEC is still very much up in the air, but a pair of Week 11 games should provide some clarity.
No. 2 Alabama has two loses and is a bit of a longshot to get to the SEC Championship Game (with just 17% odds), but if the Crimson Tide can win at No. 15 LSU (+3) they will stay in the hunt for both the SEC Title and the playoffs. The same goes for LSU. The loser will have little or no chance at postseason glory.
Of similar importance is No. 5 Georgia at No. 4 Mississippi (+3). The Bulldogs currently have the second best odds (37%) to reach the SEC Championship Game while the two-loss Rebel's hopes are hanging on by a thread at just 13%. Both computers are taking Mississippi in a mild upset.
No. 3 Texas (54%) owns the best odds to make the SEC title game and the Longhorns will stay on top assuming they can handle No. 28 Florida (+21) in Austin. Similarly, No. 10 Tennessee (32%) looks to stay in the heat of the races assuming the Vols can handle No. 73 Mississippi (+24.5).
No. 19 Vanderbilt (5%) is a long shot to reach the SEC Title games, but they are a fun story to track. The Commodores are underdogs at home against No. 12 South Carolina (-4). The No. 21 Texas A&M Aggies will be convalescing at home this weekend after the fierce pecking that they received last week from the previously mentioned Gamecocks.
It could be a make-or-break week in the Big 12 race as well. No. 22 BYU is alone in first place with a commanding lead in the odds to make the Big 12 Championship Game (79%). The Cougars have a tough in-state road test this week at No. 71 Utah (+4.5).
No. 11 Iowa State (49%) and No. 23 Colorado (43%) are locked in a battle for second place and both schools also have tough road games. The Cyclones travel to No. 49 Kansas (+3.5) and the Buffalos face No. 55 Texas Tech (+3). The Red Raiders are just a game out of second place with 10% odds to reach the conference title game. An upset win over the Buffalos could get them back into the race.
The ACC race appears to be winding down as No. 13 Miami (96%) and No. 31 Southern Methodist (84%) have separated from the pack. Those two teams meet in the ACC Championship Game in 80% of the time in this week's simulation. SMU is on a bye and Miami is a double-digit favorite at No. 58 Georgia Tech.
No. 39 Clemson (6%) and No. 18 Virginia Tech (4%) are now both longshots to reach the ACC postseason. The Tigers and Hokies (+5.5) face off this week in a virtual elimination game in Blacksburg.
In Group of Five action, four of the top five contenders for a spot in the playoffs are double-digit favorites this week. No. 24 Tulane (-26) and No. 33 Boise State (-25.5) should both win in blowout fashion. No. 59 Western Kentucky (-19.5) and No. 64 Louisiana (-13.5) are also both expected to win as well.
The biggest game on the Group of Five slate is No. 30 Army at No. 79 North Texas (+6). The Black Knights are still in great shape to make the American Athletic Conference Championship Game (97%), but a loss would make a dent in their odds to reach the playoffs.
Picks of the Week
The sections above highlighted several potential upsets and recommended picks against the spread. Figure 1 below gives an overview summary of all my computer's projections for the week in comparison to the opening Vegas spread. The same data generated by EPSN's Football Power Index is shown in Figure 2.
As we will see, the computers are also both seemingly taking things easy this weekend.
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| Figure 1: Comparison of the projected final margins of victory based on my algorithm to the opening Vegas lines for Week 11. |
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A brief explanation of how to read these figures can be found in Week One's Bad Betting Advice column. This week's upset picks (the games appearing to the left of the vertical red lines in both figures) are summarized below in Table 3.
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| Table 3: Summary of upset picks for Week 11. |
My computer selected only five upsets picks this week, three of which the FPI agrees with. Notable upset picks include Virginia Tech over Clemson (-5.5) and Mississippi over Georgia (-3).
A simulation of the week's games suggests that a total of 12.6 plus-or-minus 2.9 upsets out of 50 games is most likely. This suggests a slightly more calm and peaceful weekend may in store, which is nice for relaxing.
The games shown above in Figures 1 and 2 which fall outside of either set of dashed diagonal lines make up the set of suggested bets against the spread. Those selections are summarized below in Table 4.
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| Table 4: Picks against the opening spread for Week 11. The picks are listed in order of confidence score. |
My computer suggests only has two recommendations against the spread this week and the FPI concurs on one of them. The machines like Tulane to cover against Temple and for Virginia Tech to cover versus Clemson.
Finally, Table 5 below summarizes my computer's recommended point total bets for the week.
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| Table 5: Recommended total points bets (over/under) for Week 11. Note the picks labeled as "locks" are at a higher level of confidence. |
My computer is only putting four point bets onto the board this week, but all four are considered to be locks.
That is all the advice I have for you this week. Enjoy the weekend and check back early next week in Against All Odds to see how the picks above performed.
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