2024 Week 11 Recap: Pumpkin Spice

We have officially reached that super weird part of the calendar. We are in that post-Halloween yet pre-Thanksgiving period, and everything is just a little confusing. As we go about our days, one might still be able to find a back of Oberon on the shelves while sipping a pumpkin spice latte. Later in the day one might be able to sit on the patio of a Mexican restaurant and enjoy the unseasonably warm weather while listening to Christmas music.

In the realm of college football, things are pretty weird as well. They were quite a few spicey outcomes of the weekend, so maybe it was for the best that the Michigan State Spartans got to stay home.

Not much was changed about the trajectory of the Spartans' season, but there is still a "latte" to talk about. So grab a cup of potentially flavored joe and let's get up to speed on the weekend's results.

Week 11 Bad Betting Results

Let's start by checking in on the picks that I made in last week's Bad Betting Advice article, starting with the overview summary shown below in Figure 1. More information about how to read this figure can be found in Week One's edition of Against All Odds.

Figure 1: Results of Week 11 showing the actual point differentials relative to the opening spread.

This week, 11 teams overachieved by beating the spread by more than 14 points including Notre Dame, Tulane, Penn State, Alabama, South Carolina, and Navy. Boise State was the only school that underachieved by more than 14 points relative to the spread, yet still won.

There were 12 upsets on the board, which was in line with my computer's prediction of 12.6. Table 1 below summarizes those upsets and compares them to the picks made last week.

Table 1: Upsets in Week 11 based on the opening Vegas line compared to the upset projections from last week.

There were several high-impact and spicey upsets including Georgia Tech over Miami (-12), Virginia over Pittsburgh (-8), Kansas over Iowa State (-3.5), and Mississippi over Georgia (-3).

My computer was a solid 3-2 (60%) for upset picks which brings the year-to-date performance to 36-44 (46%). The FPI was a red hot 3-0 this week after copying only the three picks which my computer got correct. This brings the year-to-date total for the FPI up to 20-22 (48%).

Table 2 below gives the results of the computers' picks against the opening spread.

Table 2: Results of the highlighted picks against the spread for Week 11.

There were only two picks on the board, and my computer split them at 1-1 (50%). It also hit .500 exactly overall, going 25-25 (50%). This brings the year-to-date performances to 30-30 (50%) and 288-270 (52%), respectively. 

My curated set of FPI picks went 1-0 by again copying my one correct pick. The full set of FPI picks also did very well at 33-17 (52%). This brings the year-to-date performance for the FPI to 33-17 (66%) and 296-262 (53%), respectively. 

Table 3 below gives the results of the point total bets for Week 11.

Table 3: Results of the recommended point total bets ("over/under") for Week 11.

All four picks on the board this week were considered locks, and my computer went 3-1 (75%) This brings the year-to-date totals to 19-20 (49%) for the locks and 89-62 (59%) for the suggested bets.

Updated Big Ten Odds and Expected Wins

Following the results of Week 11, I have re-run the full season Monte Carlo simulation using the updated power rankings, including the current uncertainty in those rankings, which provides the opportunity to update the season odds for each team. Table 4 below gives the update for the Big Ten conference and Table 5 shows the updated Big Ten win distribution matrix.

I made two other subtle changes to my simulation over the weekend. First, I updated the tiebreaker calculations to be more exact. Second, I updated my playoff prediction algorithm to include more weighting for my predictive metric (power rankings) instead of purely being based on projected end of season strength of resume.

Note that all the rankings listed next to each team refer to my computer's power rankings and not the college football playoff poll.

Table 4: Updated Big Ten rankings, expected wins, strengths of schedule and season odds following Week 11.

Table 5: Updated Big Ten win distribution matrix after Week 11.

The four remaining Big Ten contenders all won this weekend, as expected. No. 1 Ohio State and No. 6 Penn State covered versus No. 111 Purdue and No. 33 Washington. But No. 8 Oregon and No. 10 Indiana failed to cover versus No. 48 Maryland and No. 51 Michigan. 

But the overall impact on the Big Ten race is small. The Ducks (83%) and Buckeyes (73%) are the two most likely teams to reach the Big Ten Championship Game with the Hoosiers (27%) and Nittany Lions (17%) still in contention.

The winner of the Week 13 contest between Indiana and Ohio State will have a great shot to make the Big Ten Championship Game as long as Oregon wins out. That said, Penn State's conference strength of schedule may allow the Nittany Lions to make it to Indianapolis in the event of a multi-team tie at 8-1.

In other Big Ten action, No. 14 Iowa and No. 19 Minnesota were both upset by No. 52 UCLA and No. 59 Rutgers. The Hawkeye and Golden Gophers are holding steady six wins while Rutgers (78%) and UCLA (48%) both bolstered the odds to qualify for a bowl game.

Remaining Schedule for Michigan State

Michigan State did not play this weekend, but the action in other part of the country led to some minor changes in the projections for the remainder of the season for the Spartans.

The power ranking for the Spartans slipped a few slots to No. 65. Michigan State's expected win total has dropped to 5.75 and the odds to make a bowl have slipped a few more five percentage points to 62%. 

Figure 3 below gives my computer's updated projections for the point spreads and victory odds for the Spartans' remaining three games. As a reference, the projected odds from my preseason calculations and the values from last week are also shown in Figure 3.

Figure 2: Updated odds and spread projections for Michigan State's remaining games, following Week 10 and based on a 70,000 cycle Monte Carlo simulation. The odds calculated last week are shown as a reference.

The only notable change was the projected spread for Michigan State's regular season finale versus Rutgers has slipped to just two points. The Scarlet Knights' upset of Minnesota provided a boost to their metrics. The Scarlet Knights are also now just one win away for bowl eligibility.

That said, while my computer projects the Fighting Illini to be a six-point favorite over the Spartans, the actual line opened as Michigan State just +3.5. So the situation for the Green and White is slightly better than what the data and figure above suggest.

The bottom line remains the same. Michigan State will be heavily favored to beat Purdue and the other two games are close to toss-ups. The Spartans very likely only need to win one of the two to be become bowl eligible.

National Overview

Let's now check in on the rest of the college football world and on the action that is most likely to impact the postseason chances of the various FBS schools. Table 6 below is my updated college football playoff leaderboard following Week 10. 

The teams are listed in order of my projected odds for each team to make the playoffs. I have also included my power ranking, strength of record, strengths of schedule, conference championship odds, and national title odds, all based on the most recent results of my full-season simulation.

Table 6: College Football playoff leaderboard following the action of Week 11.

Unlike the Big Ten, the other three Power Four conferences each had a major upset that will potential shake up the conference race.

In the SEC, No. 2 Alabama, No. 3 Texas, and No. 11 Tennessee scored big wins over No. 16 LSU, No. 29 Florida, and No. 73 Mississippi State, respectively. However, No. 7 Georgia was upset by No. 4 Mississippi.

As a result, my computer now has Alabama (59.4%) and Texas (58.9%) in a dead heat with the best odds to make the SEC Title Game. Tennessee (26%) and idle No. 18 Texas A&M (25%) are the next two teams back while LSU (16%) and Georgia (14%) are still in the hunt but fading fast.

The most likely scenario on the board has Texas winning out to claim first place at 7-1 with the other five teams list above plus Mississippi (1%) all in a very spicey six-way tie for second place. As the odds listed above imply, Alabama is most likely to win this tiebreaker due to the projected win-loss record of all the Crimson Tide's conference opponents.

In Big 12 action, No. 12 Iowa State suffered its second upset loss in as many weeks as the Cyclones dropped a game to No. 42 Kansas and dropped to third place (22%) on my Big 12 leaderboard. The once promising Big 12 campaign for Iowa State appears to be turning into a pumpkin in front of our eyes.

The Cyclone's loss was the gain of No. 22 Colorado (60%) which beat No. 64 Texas Tech. The Buffalos moved into to second place on my leaderboard behind undefeated No. 26 BYU (91%). The Cougars came from behind to edge No. 70 Utah, thanks to a controversial penalty late in the game which made Utes fans and coaches fell very spicey indeed.

No. 25 Kansas State (13%), No. 40 Arizona State (7%), and No. 55 West Virginia (6%) are all now just a game out of second place in the loss column and still have a shot at the Big 12 Championship.

No. 13 Miami has dodged several bullets so far this year, and this week the Hurricanes finally had their perfect record wrecked by No. 54 Georgia Tech. Miami (82%) will still very likely make the ACC Championship Game where idle No. 31 SMU (72%) is still the most likely opponent.

However, No. 28 Clemson (26%) could still sneak into the ACC Title game after the Tigers clawed past  No. 21 Virginia Tech. The problem for Clemson is the Tiger's loss to idle No. 17 Louisville (17%), a team that both SMU and Miami defeated. This puts Clemson in a very weak position relative to potential tiebreaker scenarios.

Similar to Iowa State, previously undefeated No. 49 Pittsburgh (3%) dropped another game to No. 66 Virginia. The Panthers still has a slim shot at the ACC Title game, but their season has also effective turned into a pumpkin as well

Finally, Table 7 gives an update on the teams most likely to also qualify for a spot in the playoffs from the Group of Five.

Table 7: Group of Five Leaderboard following the action of Week 11.

There were no upsets among the Group of Five contenders. That said, No. 41 Boise State (35% playoff odds) had a lackluster performance against No. 101 Nevada, while No. 20 Army (36%), No. 23 Tulane (15%), and Navy (8%) all beat the spread. Which ever of those teams wins the American Athletic Conference will challenge Boise State for the No. 12 seed in the playoffs.

Against all odds we've made it to the end for today. This analysis has also turned into a pumpkin. Hopefully my takes were not too high or too spicey. I will be back in a few days for another installment of Bad Betting Advice. Stay tuned.

Other Tables

Social Media Copy

MSU was on a bye, but the national action got a bit spicy here and there and the dreams of a few teams turned into pumpkins. Was the advice from Dr. Green and White (@paulfanson) red hot or just mild? Check out this week's edition of Against All Odds.

This week's piece focuses more on the national landscape, including a few potentially spicy tiebreaker scenarios. Here I discuss why things look good for Alabama, bad for Clemson, and might get interesting for Penn State.

With the Spartans on the second bye week of the season, there is not much new on the MSU front. So, this week's piece focuses more on the national landscape. I also had a chance to update my tiebreaker formulas to make them much more rigorous in this new division-less landscape. 

As a result, I have a clearer view of what some of the potentially very contentious scenarios will look like. I fully expect that fans are going to get a but spicy in the SEC and in the Big Ten, depending on how things finally shake out.

Here I discuss why things look good for Alabama, bad for Clemson, and might get interesting for Penn State.

Enjoy this week's edition of Against All Odds