The Michigan State Spartans have played a rather beastly schedule. My method ranks it as the No. 8 most difficult slate, year to date. A tough home loss to the Indiana Hoosiers left the Spartans banged up and the fans feeling a bit ill. It was a good time for the boys to take last weekend off and maybe have some communication about what needs to happen to close out the regular season.
So here's the scoop. The Spartans have the final road game of this season this week as they travel to Champaign-Urbana to face the Fighting Illini. I believe that the best way to think about this contest is that it is a high upside proposition that is filled with opportunity.
The Spartans are road underdogs, and so losing the game would not be a big surprise nor something to lament for too long. A loss would put Michigan State on the brink on elimination from bowl game consideration, but it would not completely sabotage the chance at the postseason. Based on the opponents in the final two games, the Spartans would still have better than 50-50 odds to make a bowl if they wake up on Sunday with a 4-6 record.
As we will see, the odds that Michigan State pulls an upset are fairly high. Based on my power rankings, the Fighting Illini are comparable in strength to Maryland, Boston College, and Michigan. The Spartans won one of those three road games and probably should have won the other two. I see no reason why Michigan State should not be right in this contest, especially coming off from a bye.
If the Spartans can get the upset, making a bowl game for the first time since 2021 is almost a sure shot. My calculations suggest that odds would skyrocket to over 95%. At that point, we could start to have the conversation about how high in the bowl pecking order the Spartans could rise.
My current analysis suggests that there is a 50-50 chance that the top four Big Ten teams (Oregon, Ohio State, Penn State, and Indiana) will all make the playoffs. After that, Iowa and Illinois are the only other Big Ten teams on track to finish better than 6-6 if all the projected favorites win out.
Alright, now hear this. If Michigan State can win out and get to 7-5, the Spartans could be in line to get a bid to the Duke's Mayo Bowl (against an ACC opponent) or the Music City Bowl (against an SEC opponent), while looking down in the standings on schools such as Minnesota, Wisconsin, Nebraska, and Michigan.
While bowl selection politics can get messy and at times seems downright ill, the idea that Spartan fans might travel to Nashville over New Years while a certain team from Ann Arbor plays a MAC school in Detroit just brings a smile to my face.
My advice to the Spartans is simply "do it."
Michigan State Prediction
The series between Michigan State and the Fighting Illini has been a series of streaks. Illinois won five of the first eight games from 1955 to 1964, but the Spartans responded by going 8-2-1 over the next 13 games.
Between 1980 and 1992, the Illini were again on top, posting a record of 9-3-1 against the Spartans. But since 1995, Michigan State has won 13 of the past 16 games. The Spartans lead the overall series 27-19-2.
The spread also aligns with this recent trend. Since 2003, Michigan State has been favored in nine of the 10 games, including five of the six games played in Champaign.
Interestingly, all three of Illinois' wins in this span were upsets (in 2006, 2016, and 2019) while Michigan State upset Illinois in 2022 in the only recent game where the Fighting Illini were favored. In the past 10 games, the winning team has covered the spread every time.
As for this year's game, my source had the line open with the Spartans as a four-point underdog. This corresponds to a 39% chance that the Green and White can pull out the upset win. That said, the line appears to be drifting in Michigan State's favor and was under three points at some points this week.
At the risk of making Michigan State fans ill, my computer is less optimistic than the boys in Vegas. It's score prediction is a final score of Illinois 26, Michigan State 20. I will note that ESPN's FPI model gives an almost identical predicted point differential.
This analysis suggest to take the under on 47.5 points and for Illinois to cover the spread. I personally feel like the Spartans have a great chance to win this game. But I will stick to the wisdom of my computer for this official prediction.
Big Ten Overview
Table 1 below gives a full summary of the action in the Big Ten in Week 12, including my projected scores, the opening point spread, and the computers' projected point differentials. Note that all rankings referenced below are my computer system's rankings and not any of the national polls.
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Table 1: Summary of Big Ten action in Week 12, including my algorithm's projected scores. The teams shaded in green are projected to cover by my computer. The teams shaded red are projected to cover by the FPI.
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Four Big Ten teams are on a bye this week, leaving six game other than the Spartans' clash with the Fighting Illini. No. 1 Ohio State and No. 6 Penn State are both expected to win easily at No. 78 Northwestern (+30.5) and at No. 111 Purdue (+27.5).
No. 8 Oregon could face a stiffer challenge at No. 24 Wisconsin (+13.5). The Nittany Lions need the Ducks to drop a game in almost every scenario where Penn State makes the Big Ten Championship game. The Lions would be wise to root for the Badgers to take the Ducks down.
In other action, No. 30 Nebraska visits No. 15 USC (-9.5) with a chance to to become bowl eligible, but the Corn Huskers are almost double-digit underdogs. No. 59 Rutgers will have the same opportunity as the underdog at No. 48 Maryland (-4.5). Spartans fans may want to root for the favorites to win for potential bowl game positioning.
The Big Ten team with the best chance to cross the six-win threshold is No. 33 Washington (-4.5), who hosts No. 52 UCLA. A win by the Huskies will not impact the Spartans' bowl positioning, as the west coast Big Ten schools will plan in legacy Pac-12 bowls this season.
Other Notable National Action
Let's now transition to a discussion to the world outside of the Big Ten. Table 2 below summarizes the notable action in the rest of the college football field in Week 12. The table highlights the action for the primary contenders in each remaining power conferences as well as the Group of Five contenders for the likely final automatic bid to the playoffs.
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Table 2: Summary of other notable action in Week 11 including my algorithms' projected scores.
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There are still six SEC teams with over a 10% chance to make the SEC Championship Game and all six are in action this week (sorry Ole Miss).
No. 18 Texas A&M (-39.5) is looking to enjoy the classic November SEC non-conference cupcake in the form of New Mexico State. Not to be out done, No. 2 Alabama will scrimmage against FCS opponent Mercer. No. 3 Texas (-15) is also a sizable favorite at No. 43 Arkansas.
But the other three contenders will face much tougher challenges. No. 11 Tennessee goes on the road to face No. 7 Georgia (-8.5). The Volunteers have a relatively weak conference strength of schedule and there is no clear path to the SEC Championship Game with a loss in Athens. Similarly, the Bulldogs would almost certainly be out of the hunt for the SEC title and the playoffs if they pick up a third loss at the hands of Tennessee.
No. 16 LSU's SEC Title hopes are still alive as there are still viable tiebreakers paths to Atlanta as long as the Tigers run the table. LSU (-5) goes on the road for the final time this year at No. 29 Florida.
The race in the Big 12 has gotten much tighter in the last few weeks as No. 12 Iowa State is on a two-game losing streak. The Cyclones (-8.5) will attempt to get it together and get back on the winning side of things versus No. 32 Cincinnati.
No. 22 Colorado hopes to take full advantage of Iowa State's slide. A win by the Buffalos over No. 70 Utah (-9) will strength Colorado's hold on second place. If No. 26 BYU were to drop the home game this weekend to No. 42 Kansas (+3.5), that might open the door for a team such as No. 25 Kansas State to sneak into the top two of the Big 12. The Wildcats host No. 40 Arizona State (+9).
In ACC action, No. 13 Miami has the week off while No. 31 SMU is a 14.5-point favorite at home versus No. 47 Boston College. Both teams are therefore like to hold onto the top two spots on my ACC leaderboard.
No. 28 Clemson still has a chance to sneak into the ACC Championship Game, but they are going to need to run the table and hope SMU or Miami ends the conference season with at least two losses. As for this week, the Tigers will need to survive a road game at No. 49 Pittsburgh (+9). The computers like the Panthers to cover.
In Group of Five action, No. 41 Boise State (35%) has the best odds to make the playoffs but the Broncos are on the road this week at No. San Jose State (+14).
No. 20 Army (34%) is just behind Boise State on my Group of Five Leaderboard but they are a bye. The next two best teams in the American Athletic Conference square off as No. 23 Tulane visits No. 61 Navy (+6). The winner will almost certainly face Army in the AAC Championship Game.
In the Sun Belt, No. 62 Louisiana could get to 12-1 and might have an interesting case to make the playoffs. The Ragin' Cajans host No. 77 South Alabama (+7.5).
Picks of the Week
The sections above highlighted several potential upsets and recommended picks against the spread. Figure 1 below gives an overview summary of all my computer's projections for the week in comparison to the opening Vegas spread. The same data generated by EPSN's Football Power Index is shown in Figure 2.
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Figure 1: Comparison of the projected final margins of victory based on my algorithm to the opening Vegas lines for Week 12.
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Figure 2: Comparison of the projected final margins of victory based on ESPN's FPI to the opening Vegas lines for Week 12.
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A brief explanation of how to read these figures can be found in Week One's Bad Betting Advice column. This week's upset picks (the games appearing to the left of the vertical red lines in both figures) are summarized below in Table 3.
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Table 3: Summary of upset picks for Week 12.
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The computers combine for seven total upsets this week, but only one game has a spread over 1.5 points (Charlotte over South Florida) and all but one upset (West Virginia over Baylor) is in the Group of Five.
That does not mean, however, that it will be a quiet weekend. A simulation of the week's games suggests that a total of 12.9 plus-or-minus 3.0 upsets out of 53 games is most likely.
The games shown above in Figures 1 and 2 which fall outside of either set of dashed diagonal lines make up the set of suggested bets against the spread. Those selections are summarized below in Table 4.
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Table 4: Picks against the opening spread for Week 12. The picks are listed in order of confidence score.
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As we approach the end of the year, the computers due a better job of predicting the actual Vegas spread. As a result, the number of recommended picks tend to decrease. There is only one pick against the spread on the board: UL Monroe to cover +24 versus Auburn.
Finally, Table 5 below summarizes my computer's recommended point total bets for the week.
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Table 5: Recommended total points bets (over/under) for Week 11. Note the picks labeled as "locks" are at a higher level of confidence.
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My computer recommends four point total bets, three of which meet the criteria to be considered "locks." The only bet here in the Power Four is for Clemson and Pittsburgh to combine for over 55.5 points.
That is all the advice I have for you this week. I hope that you enjoyed the update, and if you like my bad puns and dad jokes, take heart that they can't, they won't, and they don't stop. Check back early next week in Against All Odds to see how the picks above performed.
Social Media Copy
After a beastly schedule to start the season, the boys in Green and White are back in action. Let's communicate about the odds for the Spartans to finish strong. Also, is Dr. Green and White's (@paulfanson) crystal ball giving crystal clear advice?
When it comes to hard core analysis of MSU and the Big Ten and college football landscape, I can't, I won't, and I don't stop. That you can be sure of. So listen all, y'all, it's time for another batch of Bad Betting Advice
The Spartans are back in action this week and I am suddenly feeling a lot better about the season. As I looked deeper into some of the numbers, the better I felt. Michigan State is a slight underdog this week, and my computer is picking a 6-point loss, but I think MSU has a good shot.
As I explain in the piece, there is a ton of potential upside in this week's game and very little downside. A win could put MSU on a solid trajectory for a nicer than expected bowl game. A loss would stink, but the Spartan's will still have a great chance to get to .500, make a bowl, and over achieve.
Coming off a bye week, this is a good position to be in.
As for the theme, I am honestly surprised that I haven't pulled this one out for previous match-ups with the Illini. This one has fun.
Enjoy!
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