I have an opinion about the city of Champaign, Ill. I used to travel there for business periodically. That opinion is not positive.
Champaign is my least favorite Big Ten college town, and I spent four years in West Lafayette. For fans, it is virtually impossible to get there in any reasonable amount of time. The options from southeast Michigan include two flights, one of which might involve a plane with propellers, one flight to Chicago or Indianapolis followed by at least a two-hour drive, or a six hour drive, much of it over the flattest, most boring Midwestern scenery imaginable.
Once one arrives in Champaign, I will admit that the University of Illinois has a lovely campus, but there is not much else. A quick search for descent restaurants in the area on OpenTable results in three Red Lobster locations in the top six, two of which are literally in different cities an hour away. I am sadly not joking.
With this in mind, I can somewhat understand why the Spartans were flat and uninspired in Saturday’s 38-16 drubbing at the hands of the Fighting Illini. But that does not make it any less disappointing.
The Fighting Illini are a well-coached, square and solid team, but they are far from spectacular. This is a game that was winnable, and a win would have set the Spartans up for a very positive run to close the season. Instead, Michigan State is now on the brink of missing the postseason for the third year in a row, with no remaining margin for error.
Circling back to the analysis of the schedule from back in August, we knew that the middle portion of the schedule was going to be challenging, but that there would be opportunities in the final two games. My concern back then was that the mid-season gauntlet would take both a mental and physical toll on the team as the end of the season grew closer.
Based on what we saw on Saturday afternoon, I fear that this toll was just as bad as fans feared. The Spartan’s offense is increasingly one-dimensional, the line play continues to be inconsistent, and the banged-up defense is now struggling to get off the field on third down, even against mediocre offenses.
It is still possible for the Spartans to get off the mat and get back on a line to a bowl invitation. They need to circle the wagons and square away the issues that cropped up against the Illini. That needs to be the point of the final two weeks of the season, or the season will feel like a flat-out disappointment.
Week 12 Bad Betting Results
Now let's check in on the picks that I made in last week's Bad Betting Advice article, starting with the overview summary shown below in Figure 1. More information about how to read this figure can be found in Week One's edition of Against All Odds.
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| Figure 1: Results of Week 12 showing the actual point differentials relative to the opening spread. |
This week eight teams overachieved by beating the spread by more than 14 points including Memphis, Colorado, Tulane, Arizona, and Illinois. No teams underachieved, yet still won.
There were a total of 13 upsets in Week 12, which squares exactly what my weekly simulation predicted (12.9). Table 1 below summarizes those upsets and compares them to the picks made last week.
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| Table 1: Upsets in Week 12 based on the opening Vegas line compared to the upset projections from last week. |
This week's biggest upset based on the opening spread was Stanford's win over Louisville (-19.5). By my count, this is the fifth largest upset of the season to date. Other notable upsets include Arizona State over Kansas State (-9), Florida over LSU (-5), Rutgers over Maryland (-4.5), and Kansas over BYU (-3.5).
My computer went just 1-2 (33%) on upset picks which brings the year-to-date performance to 37-45 (45%). The FPI did slightly worse, going 1-3 (25%) which brings the year-to-date total up to 24-25 (49%).
Table 2 below gives the results of the computers' picks against the opening spread.
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| Table 2: Results of the highlighted picks against the spread for Week 12. |
The only pick on the board this week was from my computer, and it was wrong. Overall, my algorithm went 28-25 (53%). This brings the year-to-date performances to 30-31 (49%) for suggested bets and 316-295 (52%) overall.
The full set of FPI picks went just 22-31 (42%). This brings the year-to-date performance for the FPI to 22-16 (58%) for suggested bets and 319-293 (52%) overall.
Table 3 below gives the results of the point total bets for Week 12.
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My point total picks all fell totally flat. All four picks were wrong. This brings the year-to-date totals to 19-20 (49%) for the locks but 92-64 (59%) for the suggested bets.
Updated Big Ten Odds and Expected Wins
Following the results of Week 12, I have re-run the full season Monte Carlo simulation using the updated power rankings, including the current uncertainty in those rankings, which provides the opportunity to update the season odds for each team. Table 4 below gives the update for the Big Ten conference and Table 5 shows the updated Big Ten win distribution matrix.
Note that all the rankings listed next to each team refer to my computer's power rankings and not the national polls.
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| Table 5: Updated Big Ten win distribution matrix after Week 12. |
No. 1 Ohio State and No. 6 Penn State both easily dispatched No. 79 Northwestern and No. 114 Purdue, as expected. No. 8 Oregon had a closer call than anticipated in Madison, but the Ducks pulled out the win against No. 23 Wisconsin to stay undefeated.
Oregon (93%) and Ohio State (76%) are still the most likely pair of teams to meet in the Big Ten Championship Game. Idle No. 10 Indiana (22%) can leapfrog the Buckeyes if the Hoosiers can pull the upset in Columbus when the teams square off next week. Penn State (10%) also still has a path to Indianapolis in the case of a multi-team tie at 8-1.
In the remaining three Big Ten games, No. 16 USC beat No. 33 Nebraska, leaving the Corn Huskers at 5-5. With two games left against Wisconsin and at No. 14 Iowa, the odds of Nebraska making a bowl game down to 63%.
In addition, No. 52 Rutgers upset No. 62 Maryland and as a result, the Scarlet Knights are now bowl eligible. The good news for Michigan State fans is that no matter what happens, Rutgers will not need a win in East Lansing in two weeks to secure a bowl game for themselves.
No. 38 Washington also beat No. 55 UCLA to become bowl eligible. At the same time, the Bruins are now on the bring of bowl elimination.
Remaining Schedule for Michigan State
Michigan State's performance against Illinois made yet another dent in the Spartans’ metrics. The Spartans dropped another three spots to No. 68 in my power rankings. The expected win total is down to 5.34 and the odds to make a bowl have slipped below .500 to 43%.
Figure 3 below gives my computer's updated projections for the point spreads and victory odds for the Spartans' remaining two games. As a reference, the projected odds from my preseason calculations and the values from last week are also shown in Figure 3.
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| Figure 2: Updated odds and spread projections for Michigan State's remaining games, following Week 12 and based on a 50,000 cycle Monte Carlo simulation. The odds calculated last week are shown as a reference. |
My computer projects an 14-point win for the Spartans next week against Purdue and the Vegas line opened with Michigan State at -13. This means that the Spartans’ chance at a bowl game will likely hinge on the result of the final home game of the season on Nov. 30 against Rutgers.
My computer currently projects that this game will essentially be a pick’em. Michigan State will be at home, on senior day, with the opponents already having secured a bowl bid. This is simply a game that the Spartans should win. Period.
National Overview
Let's now checking in on the rest of the college football action that is most likely to impact the postseason chances of the various FBS schools. Table 6 below is my updated college football playoff leaderboard following Week 12.
The teams are listed in order of my projected odds for each team to make the playoffs. I have also included my power ranking, strength of record, strengths of schedule, conference championship odds, and national title odds, all based on the most recent results of my full-season simulation.
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| Table 6: College Football playoff leaderboard following the action of Week 12. |
In SEC action, No. 2 Alabama, No. 3 Texas, and No. 17 Texas A&M, all won, as expected, and No. 5 Georgia pulled away from No. 11 Tennessee. The loss by the Volunteers effectively eliminated them from the SEC race. The No. 20 LSU Tigers are also eliminated thanks to an upset loss at No. 25 Florida.
Alabama (77%) and Texas (68%) continue to have the best odds to square off in the SEC Championship Game, while Georgia (32%) and Texas A&M (22%) remain in contention. The season finale between the Longhorns and the Aggies in College Station will likely decide the fate of the conference. That game should be circled on the calendars of all four contenders.
In the Big 12, No. 27 BYU was knocked from the ranks of the undefeated by No. 37 Kansas. Meanwhile No. 18 Colorado hammed No. 65 Utah, which results in the Buffalos (68%) and Cougars (60%) tied at the top of the Big 12 standing with a clear line to the Big 12 Championship.
There are still a lot of other scenarios on the table, as No. 12 Iowa State (30%) broke t two-game losing streak with a win over No. 36 Cincinnati and No. 31 Arizona State (40%) upset No. 28 Kansas State. If BYU or Colorado were to slip up in one of the next two weeks, the race could get interesting.
In the ACC, No. 35 Southern Methodist grounded No. 47 Boston College to remain undefeated in conference play. No. 29 Clemson wrapped up conference play with a road win over No. 51 Pittsburgh. The Panthers’ loss eliminates them from the ACC title contention. No. 24 Louisville's upset loss at Stanford officially knocked the Cardinals out of the race as well.
Southern Methodist (87%) and idle No. 15 Miami (76%) continue to have the best odds to reach the ACC Championship Game. Both teams control their own destiny, with Clemson (38%) primed to take one of the slots in either team finishes with two conference losses.
Finally, Table 7 gives an update on the most likely teams to also qualify for a spot in the playoffs from the Group of Five.
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| Table 7: Group of Five Leaderboard following the action of Week 12. |
No. 44 Boise State beat No. 95 San Jose State on the road and the Broncos (39%) held onto the top spot on my Group of Five leaderboard. No. 13 Tulane (23%) blanked No. 76 Navy which resulted in the both the Green Wave and idle No. 19 Army (33%) clinching spots in the American Athletic Conference Title Game.
Potential Group of Five dark horse contenders No. 64 Louisiana and No. 78 Western Kentucky were both upset this week, meaning it is now just a three-team race for the playoff berth.
Against all odds we've made it to the end for today. I always try to square the circle when it comes to understanding what all the data means and what is coming next. I will be back in a few days for another installment of Bad Betting Advice where I hope to have a line on some good financial suggestions. Stay tuned.
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