2024, Week 13 Recap: Half-and-half

Following Michigan State's 24-17 win over Purdue on Friday night, head Coach Jonathan Smith referred to the game as "a tale of two halves." The fans who brewed an extra cup of coffee and stayed up late to watch the end of the game can certainly confirm that this was far from a scalding hot take.

In the first half against Purdue, Michigan State scored on all four drives and amassed 24 points on 220 yards of offense. Meanwhile, the defense gave up just three points and 134 yards.

But in the second half, the defense surrendered 14 points and 204 yards while the offense was forced to punt on five consecutive drive, the longest of which gained just 18 yards.

In many ways, the Purdue game was a microcosm of the season as a whole. Half of the time, the Spartans look pretty good. Half the time, they look like a competitive Big Ten team with significantly improved coaching and schemes. Examples include the wins against Iowa, at Maryland, and large portions of the games against Boston College, Michigan, Purdue, and even the early parts of the games against Ohio State and Indiana.

But the other half of the time, Michigan State looks suspiciously as mediocre as the late Mark Dantonio era and non-Kenneth-Walker-era Mel Tucker teams. The performances in games against Florida Atlantic, Oregon, Illinoi, and the later stages of the Purdue, Ohio State, and Indiana contests ring a bell here.

Now, despite already objectively overachieving in Year One, half the fanbase seems to be freaking out. OK, that is an exaggeration. But, it is safe to say that a lot of Spartan fans are frustrated by the inconsistency, even if it is is understandable based on the unusual number of injuries, especially in the secondary and on the offensive line.

In any event, the regular season now comes down to just one game. If the Spartans can string together two good halves, there is a very good chance that Michigan State will send its seniors out with a win and in the process earn a valuable bowl bid. A victory next week would taste like sweet cream.

But if the inconsistency continues, Saturday could be the final game of the season for the Green and White. Despite the meager expectations coming into the season, a loss would certainly leave a sour taste in everyone's mouth and some fans crying over spilt milk.

Week 13 Bad Betting Results

Now let's check in on the picks that I made in last week's Bad Betting Advice article, starting with the overview summary shown below in Figure 1. More information about how to read this figure can be found in Week One's edition of Against All Odds.

Figure 1: Results of Week 13 showing the actual point differentials relative to the opening spread.

Eight teams overachieved in Week 13 by creaming the spread by more than 14 points including Michigan, Notre Dame, Louisville, Southern Methodist, Kansas State, and Nebraska. Boise State was the only school that underachieved, yet still won.

There were a total of 22 upsets in Week 12, which was even more than the 17.1 value that my computer predicted. Table 1 below summarizes those upsets and compares them to the picks made last week.

Table 1: Upsets in Week 13 based on the opening Vegas line compared to the upset projections from last week.

This week's biggest upset based on the opening spread was Georgia State's win over Texas State (-19.5) in the Sun Belt Conference. But, there were several other notable Power Four conference upsets including Oklahoma over Alabama (-13), Florida over Mississippi (-9), Auburn over Texas A&M (-2.5), Kansas over Colorado (-2), and Illinois over Rutgers (-1.5).

My computer went 5-2 (71%) on upset picks which brings the year-to-date performance to 42-47 (47%). The FPI also had a strong performance, going 4-3 (57%) which brings the year-to-date total up to 28-28 (50%).

Table 2 below gives the results of the computers' picks against the opening spread.

Table 2: Results of the highlighted picks against the spread for Week 13.

There was only one pick on the board this week, based on my analysis of the FPI data, and it was correct. Overall, my algorithm struggled at 26-36 (42%). This brings the year-to-date performances to 30-31 (49%) for suggested bets and 342-331 (51%) overall. 

My FPI-based suggested bets are now 23-16 (59%) for the year. The full set of FPI picks went 33-29 (53%). This brings the overall year-to-date performance for the FPI to 351-322 (52%). 

Table 3 below gives the results of the point total bets for Week 12.

Table 3: Results of the recommended point total bets ("over/under") for Week 13.

My point total bets had a good week. The locks were the cream of the crop, going a perfect 5-0. The other three picks were all incorrect, however, which resulted in a total performance of 5-3 (63%). This brings the year-to-date totals to 24-22 (52%) for the locks and 96-69 (58%) for the suggested bets.

Updated Big Ten Odds and Expected Wins

Following the results of Week 12, I have re-run the full season Monte Carlo simulation using the updated power rankings, including the current uncertainty in those rankings, which provides the opportunity to update the season odds for each team. Table 4 below gives the update for the Big Ten conference and Table 5 shows the updated Big Ten win distribution matrix.

Note that all the rankings listed next to each team refer to my computer's power rankings and not the national polls.

Table 4: Updated Big Ten rankings, expected wins, strengths of schedule and season odds following Week 13.

Table 5: Updated Big Ten win distribution matrix after Week 13.

No. 1 Ohio State's win over No. 10 Indiana has made it a virtual lock (94%) that the Buckeyes will get a rematch with No. 8 Oregon in the Big Ten Championship Game, where my computer forecasts a nine-point win for Ohio State.

No 6 Penn State (6%) barely survived on the road at No. 18 Minnesota and still have a slim chance to get to Indianapolis with a win over No. 67 Maryland if Ohio State gets upset by No. 43 Michigan. 

Indiana (0.5%) needs to beat No. 114 Purdue next week and pray that both Penn State and Ohio State lose next week in order to make it to the Big Ten Championship Game.

In other Big Ten action, Michigan became bowl eligible with a win over No. 86 Northwestern, as did both No. 34 Nebraska and No. 16 USC at the expense of No. 35 Wisconsin and No. 56 UCLA, respectively. The Badgers (5-6) are now in danger of missing out on bowl season if they cannot get past rivals Minnesota next week.

No. 38 Illinois get a last-second touchdown on the road to beat No. 55 Rutgers while No. 14 Iowa took care of No. 67 Maryland. The Fighting Illini thus maintained a one game lead in overall record over the Hawkeyes which will help their resume in terms of bowl game pecking order.

Overall, up to half the conference could finish with a 6-6 record, which could make bowl assignments particularly interesting.

Remaining Schedule for Michigan State

Michigan State got the win over Purdue, but the less-than-impressive manner of the win still caused the Spartans to drop two more slots in my power rankings down to No. 70.

As for the remainder of the season, the analysis is extremely simple. In almost exactly half of my simulations, Michigan State beats Rutgers next week to get to 6-6 and bowl eligibility. In the other half they do not.

The Vegas line for next Saturday's game opened with Michigan State favored by a point. As of Monday morning, in some places the spread moved in the Spartans' favor by half a point. 

If you are a glass-half-full person, these spreads suggest that the Spartans have a 53% to 55% chance to beat Rutgers and to reach the post-season. 

Either way, it is basically a coin flip.

National Overview

Let's now checking in on the rest of the college football action that is most likely to impact the postseason chances of the various FBS schools. Table 6 below is my updated college football playoff leaderboard following Week 13. 

The teams are listed in order of my projected odds for each team to enter the land of milk and honey known as the college football playoffs. I have also included my power ranking, strength of record, strengths of schedule, conference championship odds, and national title odds, all based on the most recent results of my full-season simulation.

Table 6: College Football playoff leaderboard following the action of Week 13

The cream seems to have risen to the top of most of the Power Four conference this weekend. In the SEC, upset losses by No. 5 Alabama and No. 3 Mississippi to No. 28 Oklahoma and No. 22 Florida, respectively knocked the Crimson Tide and Rebels out of SEC title contention.

As a result, No. 7 Georgia has now clinched a spot in the SEC title game after creaming No. 126 UMass. The Bulldogs will face the winner of next week's game between No. 2 Texas (67%) and No. 17 Texas A&M (33%). The Longhorns opened as a six-point favorite on the road.

Texas is in this position due to a win this weekend over No. 41 Kentucky while Texas A&M still has a chance despite taking a loss at No. 46 Auburn. No. 9 Tennessee will likely finish in a tie for either first or second place in the SEC standings, but the Volunteers do not have a tiebreaker path to the SEC Championship Game.

The most likely SEC scenario (according to my computer) is for Texas to beat Georgia in the SEC Championship game. I project that Texas would be about a six-point favorite, despite having taken a loss to the Bulldogs in Austin in Week Eight.

The results in the ACC were also straightforward as No. 26 Southern Methodist clinched a berth in the ACC Championship Game via a win over No. 75 Virginia. No. 15 Miami (78%) stayed on the path to join the Mustangs thanks to a win over No. 89 Wake Forest.

The Hurricanes will play for the ACC Title if they can win next week at No. 59 Syracuse (+11). Otherwise, No. 36 Clemson will claim the spot as the Tigers have already completed their conference schedule.

The most likely scenario is for Miami (-4.5) to beat Southern Methodist to claim the ACC crown.

And then there's the Big 12, where chaos is reigning king. No. 27 BYU lost at No. 33 Arizona State and No. 20 Colorado lost at No. 31 Kansas. No. 12 Iowa State also won at No. 53 Utah which sets up a four-way tie at the top of the standings with Arizona State (71% odds), Iowa State (67%), BYU (46%), and Colorado (14%) all at 6-2 and five addition Big 12 teams at 5-3.

The Big 12 is saying that all nine teams within a game a first place have a shot to make the Big 12 Championship game. My simulation confirms at least eight of those teams have non-zero odds. My simulation did not find a scenario where No. 39 TCU makes the title game, but it is possible that the odds were too small to detect.

All four of the first place teams are favored next weekend but Iowa State does face No. 24 Kansas State while Arizona State is on the road against their rival, No. 77 Arizona.

My simulation gives the Sun Devils and the Cyclones the best odds to reach the Big 12. Title Game as these two teams have an advantage in the tiebreakers. My computer projects that Iowa State (-7.5) would beat Arizona State to claim Big 12 title.

The other big winners this weekend was No. 4 Notre Dame, who soundly defeated Group of Five contender, No. 23 Army. The Fighting Irish are now 10-1 with a solid shot at the playoffs, despite one of the weakest schedule (ranked No. 60 in my system) among the playoff contenders.

Speaking of the Group of Five, Table 7 gives an update on the most likely teams to also qualify for a spot in the playoffs from those conferences.

Table 7: Group of Five Leaderboard following the action of Week 13.

No. 47 Boise State (39%) got a scare from No. 125 Wyoming, but the Bronco got the win and are headed to the Mountain West Championship. There they will very likely get a rematch with No. 58 UNLV. If Boise State wins out, including next week against No. 109 Oregon State, the Broncos are likely headed to the playoffs.

That said, an argument could still be made for either No. 13 Tulane (29%) or No. 23 Army (26%), depending on which team wins the American Athletic Conference. Army could have bolstered this argument with a win over Notre Dame, but it was not meant to be.

My computer still gives very slim odds to UNLV (3.2%) as well as No. 52 Marshall (1.6%) and No. 65 Louisiana (1.2%) from the Sun Belt, but it is hard to see a viable path for any of those teams.

Playoff Prediction

Based on the analysis above, the four playoff byes would go to Ohio State (12-1), Texas (12-1), Miami (12-1), and Iowa State (11-2) with Boise State (12-1) claiming the fifth automatic bid from the Group of Five.

For the at-large bids in this scenario, Penn State (11-1), Oregon (12-1), Georgia (10-3), and Notre Dame (11-1) would seem to be locks to make the playoffs, leaving three available spots.

Based on my strength of record and power rankings, I see three clear teams that are likely to fill these spots: Indiana (11-1), Tennessee (10-2), and Alabama (9-3).

I would set up the bracket as follows:

No. 1 Ohio State

---No. 8 Alabama

---No. 9 Notre Dame

No. 4 Iowa State

---No. 5 Georgia

---No. 12 Boise State

No. 3 Miami

---No. 6 Oregon

---No. 11 Indiana

No. 2 Texas

---No. 7 Penn State

---No. 10 Tennessee

This bracket seems relatively balanced and generally avoids rematches. The committee has repeatedly stated that they will not attempt to avoid rematches, but this is foolish. I am curious to see if more intelligent heads in the committee prevail in the final analysis.

Against all odds we've made it to the end for today. Hopefully my analysis is better than just half-baked. I certainly tried to milk it for all that it was worth. I will be back in a few days for another installment of Bad Betting Advice. Stay tuned.

Other Tables

Social Media Copy

So far the Spartans look like an improved team... about half the time. After playing half of a good game against Purdue, the odds of a bowl are 50-50. Were Dr. Green and White's (@paulfanson) picks over .500? More on all of this in Against All Odds.

Whether you are a glass half empty type of fan or a glass half full fan. This year's Michigan State season has had something for everyone. Check out this week's edition of Against All Odds. It's not for the lactose intolerant.

Whether you are a glass-half-empty or a glass-half-full  fan, this year's Michigan State season has had something for everyone. This week's edition of Against All Odds should have the same appeal. Warning, though: it's not for the lactose intolerant.

So far the Spartans look like an improved team... about half the time. After playing half of a good game against Purdue, the odds of a bowl are 50-50. Whether you are a glass-half-empty or a glass-half-full  fan, this year's Michigan State season has had something for everyone. This week's edition of Against All Odds should have the same appeal. Warning, though: it's not for the lactose intolerant.