It has been a long semester in East Lansing, full of ups and downs. Over the first few weeks Michigan State did well on the first few biology assignments on nocturnal birds of prey, aquatic reptiles, and large predatory felines. But then they really struggled in the last few questions on the quiz on east coast birds of prey, despite staying up late to study.
That seemed to send the Spartans into a bit of a funk as they proceeded to bomb the assignment on poisonous nuts before losing their homework on water foul due to a weekend trip out west.
After that break Michigan State got back into a groove and aced the mid term on 19th century American literature. (It's a good thing the Spartans boned up on James Fenimore Cooper.) But after that, the Spartans struggled once again on the assignment on members of the weasel family. Then they seemed to just phone it in on the module on native peoples of the American Midwest.
But last week, Michigan State managed a C+ in shop. Now the Spartans are positioned to get through the semester with a overall passing grade if the they can nail the final exam this weekend in medieval history. If they can, the teacher has promised an opportunity for some extra credit during the holidays.
The test will not be easy, but it is essentially pass/fail. Word on the street is that the questions are tricky and that the professor is a tough grader. But I am confident that if the Spartans work hard and cram for the test, they can get the job done.
But if Michigan State heads home for the holidays with a loss, it is going to stimulate some uncomfortable conversations. Some family members will still be supportive, while others might ask what the Spartans are doing with their life. That doesn't sound like fun at all.
In the final game of the season, on senior day, at home, with a bowl game on the line, failure is simply not an option.
Michigan State Prediction
If we study the history of the series, we find that the Michigan State Spartans and Rutgers Scarlet Knights have faced each other only 15 times with the Spartans leading the series 10-5.
Rutgers won three of the first five match-ups from 1988 to 2004. However, once the Scarlet Knights joined the Big Ten in 2014, they lost six straight before finally passing the test in East Lansing in the first game of the COVID-shortened and delayed season of 2020. The only other victory for Rutgers over Michigan State in the Big Ten era came last year in Piscataway.
From the point of view of the Vegas spread, it has been a typical and well-behaved series. The Spartans are 6-6 against the spread versus Rutgers since 2003. Michigan State is 4-2 ATS in New Jersey while just 2-4 in Spartan Stadium.
Historically the Spartans have been favored in the matchup by an average of 13.67 points since 2003. Last year was the first time in that span that Rutgers was favored. The Scarlet Knights got the victory in that game, 27-24, but the Spartans covered.
My source has the spread for this year's game opening with Michigan State as a one-point favorite, and it has bounced around in either direction by a point or two, depending on the casino. Based on the opening spread, the Spartan's odds for a win and a bowl berth are just a fraction better than a coin flip at 53%.
My computer produced a number that was even closer than that. Early Sunday morning my computer has Rutgers favored by 0.0039 points. When I entered the results of the FCS games on Sunday afternoon, the my computer flipped the line in Michigan State's favor to 0.134 points.
No matter how you slice it, this game is projected to be close. That does not mean that it will be close, but all the math points in that direction. Based on the situation, the venue, and what's at stake, I do think that the Spartans pull this one out.
I will go with my computer's pick of Michigan State 24, Rutgers 23.
Big Ten Overview
Table 1 below provides a cheat sheet for the action in the Big Ten in Week 14, including my projected scores, the opening point spread, and the computers' projected point differentials. Note that all rankings referenced below are my computer system's rankings and not any of the national polls.
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| Table 1: Summary of Big Ten action in Week 14, including my algorithm's projected scores. The teams shaded in green are projected to cover by my computer. The teams shaded red are projected to cover by the FPI. |
All 18 Big Ten teams in are action this week, along with all 116 other FBS teams. The top four playoff contenders are all at least 19.5-point favorites over a significant rival. No. 8 Oregon (-19.5), No. 1 Ohio State (-20.5), No. 6 Penn State (-24), and No. 10 Indiana (-27.5) will all most likely get wins over No. 40 Washington, No. 43 Michigan, No. 67 Maryland, and No. 114 Purdue.
If this occurs, Oregon will face Ohio State for the Big Ten Championship with the No. 1 seed in the college football playoffs likely at stake. If Oregon loses, the Ducks will still play for the Big Ten title, but they potentially could slip to the No. 2 seed in the playoffs.
Ohio State needs to beat Michigan in order to have a chance at a retake against the Ducks in Indianapolis, but either way the Buckeyes are a virtual lock for the playoffs.
Penn State also seems safely into the playoff, but the Nittany Lions need an upset from Michigan in order to have a shot at the Big Ten Title.
Indiana is closer to the college football playoff bubble, but as long as the Hoosiers take care of the Boilermakers, they look to be safely "in." Indiana would need both Ohio State and Penn State to take loss this week in order to sneak into the Big Ten Championship Game.
As for the remaining Big Ten games, most teams are simply vying for bowl game position. No. 38 Illinois would have a solid chance at the Cheez-It Citrus Bowl if they can take care of No. 86 Northwestern (+9). Similarly, No. 14 Iowa is poised to slot into the ReliaQuest Bowl (the former Outback Bowl in Tampa) if the Hawkeye can beat Nebraska (+3.5) in Iowa City.
Other than Michigan State, Wisconsin is the only Big Ten team that needs a win this weekend to secure a bowl slot. The Badgers (-3) host Minnesota in the battle for Paul Bunyan's Axe. My computer is picking the Golden Gophers in an upset.
The final notable Big Ten game has tangential playoff implications. No. 4 Notre Dame travels to L.A. to face No. 16 USC (+6.5). The Fighting Irish likely need a win in order to stay on the positive side of the playoff bubble.
Depending on how things shake out this weekend, the bowl selection process could get interesting for Big Ten teams. There are only seven total bowls with contracts with the Big Ten for conference teams that do not make the playoffs (Cheez-It Citrus, ReliaQuest, Duke's Mayo, Music City, Pinstripe, Guaranteed Rate Bowl, and GameAbove Sports).
But there could be as many as nine non-west-coast and non-playoff Big Ten teams that qualify for a bowl game (Indiana, Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Rutgers, Nebraska, Michigan, Michigan State, and Wisconsin). There is a good chance that at least eight teams are available for those seven slots.
If Michigan State beats Rutgers, it seems likely that the former Motor City Bowl (now GameAbove Sports Bowl) in Detroit would be the destination. But, there is a chance that the Spartans could wind up in a different bowl altogether, depending on the number of available teams from the other conferences and which bowl have availability.
Other Notable National Action
Now let's examine what is happening in the rest of the college football landscape. Table 2 below summarizes the notable action in the rest of the nation in Week 14. The table highlights the action for the primary contenders in each remaining power conferences as well as the Group of Five contenders for the likely final automatic bid to the playoffs.
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In the SEC, the only game that really matters is No. 2 Texas (-4.5) at No. 17 Texas A&M. The winner will place No. 7 Georgia in the SEC Championship Game, whether the Bulldogs beat No. 60 Georgia Tech (+20) or not.
Based on the most recent College Football Playoff rankings, No. 9 Tennessee is in a solid position to claim a playoff spot, but they still need to pass this week's test at No. 29 Vanderbilt (+12.5).
My computer still has No. 5 Alabama as a playoff team, even with a 9-3 record. But with a playoff ranking of No. 13, the Crimson Tide are currently on the outside looking in. Even a win over No. 46 Auburn is unlikely to move the needle.
No. 3 Mississippi is in even worse shape. The Rebels are ranked one spot below Alabama by the committee and with only No. 73 Mississippi State (+26.5) on the schedule, there is likely no way for Ole Miss to make up enough points to pass into the playoffs.
In ACC action, No. 15 Miami needs to win on the road at No. 59 Syracuse in order to make the ACC Championship Game versus No. 26 Southern Methodist. If the Hurricanes are upset, No. 36 Clemson will take their spot, even if the Tigers lose to in-state rivals No. 11 South Carolina (+3). My computer likes the Gamecocks for the upset.
Southern Methodist moved up four slots in the College Football Playoff rankings to No. 9 and now has a shot at an at-large bid even if they lose in the ACC Title Game. The Mustangs host No. 61 California (+12) this weekend.
My computer has SMU ranked below both Indiana and Alabama in strength of resume and in my power rankings. I could easily see Alabama over even Clemson jumping over the Mustangs in the final rankings depending on SMU's performance in the ACC Title game.
In Big 12 action, there are still nine teams that could, in theory, finish at least tied for first place. This means that seven of the eight Big 12 games in the final weekend could impact the participants in the Big 12 Championship Game.
That said, it is very likely that two of the four teams currently tied at the top of the standings are likely to play for the conference title. No. 33 Arizona State has the best overall odds, but the Sundevils are on the road at No. 77 Arizona (+8.5). No. 12 Iowa State has the second best odds, but the Cyclones have the biggest test this week versus No. 24 Kansas State (+3).
If either of those two teams lose, No. 27 BYU is most likely to benefit, assuming the Cougars can beat No. 98 Houston (+11.5) in Provo. No. 20 Colorado needs the most help to make the Big 12 Championship Game, assuming the Buffaloes can beat No. 69 Oklahoma State (+14).
In Group of Five action, Boise State has the clear edge to make the playoffs as the committee has the Broncos ranked No. 11 overall. If Boise beats No. 109 Oregon State (-17) and then wins the Mountain West, they may even claim the No. 4 seed, enough if my computer has the Broncos ranked down at No. 47.
As I study the data, I have both No. 13 Tulane and No. 23 Army as stronger overall teams. In two weeks one of them will be America Athletic Conference Champions, but to stay in consideration for a playoff spot, they will need to pass this week's test against No. 57 Memphis (+12.5) and No. 101 Texas San Antonio (+6.5), respectively.
Picks of the Week
The sections above highlighted several potential upsets and recommended picks against the spread. Figure 1 below gives an overview summary of all my computer's projections for the week in comparison to the opening Vegas spread. The same data generated by EPSN's Football Power Index is shown in Figure 2.
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| Figure 1: Comparison of the projected final margins of victory based on my algorithm to the opening Vegas lines for Week 14. |
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A brief explanation of how to read these figures can be found in Week One's Bad Betting Advice column. This week's upset picks (the games appearing to the left of the vertical red lines in both figures) are summarized below in Table 3.
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| Table 3: Summary of upset picks for Week 14. |
The computers combine for 11 total upsets this week, including in notable games such as South Carolina over Clemson (-3), Minnesota over Wisconsin (-3), and Kansas over Baylor (-1.5). The FPI is also betting on the Spartans to lose this weekend.
My simulation of the week's games suggests that a total of 17.9 plus-or-minus 3.4 upsets is most likely. This is the highest number of forecasted upsets to date, but this weekend also includes the highest number of games between FBS opponents.
The games shown above in Figures 1 and 2 which fall outside of either set of dashed diagonal lines make up the set of suggested bets against the spread. Those selections are summarized below in Table 4.
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| Table 4: Picks against the opening spread for Week 14. The picks are listed in order of confidence score. |
For the third week in a row, the computers only came up with one recommended pick against the spread. This week both machines agree that Army (-6.5) will cover against Texas San Antonio.
Finally, Table 5 below summarizes my computer's recommended point total bets for the week.
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| Table 5: Recommended total points bets (over/under) for Week 14. Note the picks labeled as "locks" are at a higher level of confidence. |
My computer recommends has six point total bets, two of which qualify as "locks." That said, one of the locks involved Kent State and Buffalo who on Tuesday night combined for just 50 points, exactly half-a-point below what was needed for this lock pick to be correct. Thanks for nothing, jerks.
That is all the advice I have for you this week. In this final week of the season, I have put the numbers to the test and examined a wide array of possible outcomes. I hope that you found my analysis at least passable. Check back early next week in Against All Odds to see how the picks above performed.
Social Media Copy
In this final test of the regular season for the Spartans, the grading is pass/fail and there will be no curve. Also, is Dr. Green and White (@paulfanson)'s final batch of advice at all passable? All that and more here:
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