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The Big Ten schedule is setting them up and so far the Michigan State Spartans are knocking them down. This time around, the Spartans went into Evanston, Ill. and knocked off Chicago's Big Ten team. On Sunday afternoon Michigan State prevailed over Northwestern, 78-68 to move to 5-0 in conference play. The other notable outcome of the weekend was Illinois' somewhat shocking home loss to lowly USC. In contrast, Michigan and Purdue plugged along, each picking up double-digit wins at home. As a result, the updated enhanced Big Ten standings are shown below in Table 1. Table 1:  Enhanced Big Ten standings as of Jan. 14, 2025. Based on the games completed through Monday night, the updated Big Ten win matrix is shown below in Table 2. These expected win totals are based on the results of a 1,000,000-cycle Monte Carlo simulation of the remainder of the Big Ten regular season. Table 2:  Updated Big Ten expected wins and win distribution matrix as of  Jan. 14, 2025 . The Michigan ...

Throughout the Big Ten basketball season. I have historically conducted an analysis on the results of a series simulations which provides various odds regarding the trajectory of the Michigan State men's basketball season and the Big Ten race as a whole.  In addition, I have provided additional analysis of Michigan State and the Big Ten race using Kenpom efficiency data compared to historical data and the set of statistics known as the "four factors of basketball success." As the season goes on, the data changes almost daily. This post is meant to be a one-stop shop for the most updated data on the Big Ten race. In addition, this post will contain a explanation of how to read each table or figure. Analysis of the data will be done elsewhere. This post contains "just the facts." Last Update: Jan. 13, 2025 Percentage of Big Ten games completed: 48 of 180 games (27%) Enhanced Big Ten Standings Table 1:  Enhanced Big Ten standings as of Jan. 13, 2025. Table 1 below ...

On Thursday night, the Michigan State Spartans sailed to another double-digit win over Big Ten newcomers the Washington Huskies to improve their record to 13-2 overall and 4-0 in the conference. As a result, the Spartans have rejoined the Michigan Wolverines in a tie on the top of the conference. In other Big Ten action, it was a very good week for Illinois, Oregon, Wisconsin and especially Michigan. All four teams picked up big wins including a 39-point win by Illinois over Penn State, an 19-point win by Michigan at UCLA, a 31-point win by Wisconsin over Iowa, and a two-point victory by Oregon at Ohio State On the other hand, UCLA picked up back-to-back loses to at Nebraska and versus Michigan. As a result, the updated Big Ten leaderboard is shown below in Table 1. Table 1:  Odds to win or share the Big Ten regular season title and the win distributions for those winning teams as of Jan. 10, 2025. Michigan now has the best odds to win the conference at 45% with the Fighting Illini...

Two weeks ago, I presented my two-part preview of the Big Ten basketball season, including a ton of data about how the season is likely to play out. In just this short period of time, already a lot has changed. Most importantly, the Michigan State Spartans traveled to Columbus last Friday and earned a hard-fought win over the Ohio State Buckeyes, 69-62. The Spartans are now 3-0 in conference play, 12-2 overall, and in the midst of a seven-game win streak. Michigan State is tied at the top of the conference with the Michigan Wolverines. Since Christmas, a lot of the data related to the conference race has shifted. For today's update, let us focus on the updated odds to win or share the Big Ten regular season title as shown below in Table 1. Table 1: Odds to win or share the Big Ten regular season title and the win distributions for those winning teams as of Jan. 6, 2025. The Spartans have moved up six-and-a-half percentage points and one spot on the leaderboard since Christmas Eve....