Big Ten odds and stats update for Jan. 26: Glass Half Full

I must admit that coming into Saturday's game against the Rutgers Scarlet Knights, I was a bit pessimistic about how the game might go. I was nervous despite Michigan State's flawless record in conference play, despite the metrics and the large Vegas spread, and even despite the injury report which showed Rutgers center Emmanuel Ogbole as out for the season and freshman star point guard Dylan Harper as questionable with a twisted ankle.

The sources of my pessimism were varied. First, Madison Square Gardens has been a house of horrors for Tom Izzo and the Spartans. Prior to Saturday, Izzo's record in the building was just 4-13. Second, Rutgers is a well-coached, rugged team with two potential top five NBA draft picks in Harper and in forward Ace Bailey. 

Third, there is an odd, but documented trend that Izzo-coached teams tend to show a slump in performance at the end of January and early February. Saturday's game was located squarely in the center of the "Tom Izzo Bermuda Triangle."

Despite my pessimism, the Spartans did the same thing that they have been doing since Thanksgiving. After a slow start, Michigan State took the lead with 12:45 left to play in the first half and never gave it up. The grit and depth of the Spartans ground the Scarlet Knights into submission. With 10:51 to play the lead reached double-digits. 

While some Spartan sloppiness and a flurry of three pointers from Rutgers in the final two minutes made the final score closer than it should have been, the end result was never really in doubt. Michigan State is now 17-2 overall, 8-0 in conference play and undefeated for over two full months.

How did Michigan State pull out the win in New York City and what are the implications for the Big Ten race? Let's answer both of those questions, starting with the four factors analysis of the win in the Garden.

Four Factor's Analysis of Michigan State's win Over Rutgers

Figure 1 below provides an analysis for Michigan State's 81-74 win versus Rutgers at Madison Square Garden on Jan. 26, 2025.

Figure 1: Summary of the Four Factors in Michigan State's 81-74 win versus Rutgers at Madison Square Garden on Jan. 26, 2025.

Why did Michigan State win?

Shooting was the statistic that made the difference. Michigan State outperformed Rutgers in effective field goal percentage by 12 percentage points. A deeper look at the box score shows that the Spartans were able to get into the paint and score or get fouled. Michigan State scored 42 points in the paint and 22 points from the free throw line.

However, the advantage in shooting helped to disguise a few other potential concerns. Michigan State outrebounded Rutgers by 10 and had a better overall rebound rate on both ends, but the Scarlet Knights scored 11 second chance points off of 15 offensive rebounds.

Michigan State also lost the turnover battle 15-to-6. As a result, Rutgers got 12 more shots from the field. But the Scarlet Knights lack of efficiency cost them. Both teams shot more free throws than usual due to a quick whistle, and the Spartans held a small edge in this category.

Big Ten Race Update

Table 1 below shows the updated enhanced Big Ten standings as of Jan. 27.

Table 1: Enhanced Big Ten standings as of Jan. 27, 2025

The Spartans win over Rutgers, combined Purdue's win over Michigan on Friday night has given Michigan State a two-game advantage in the loss column and a one-game advantage in the plus/minus metric. 

Table 2 below gives the updated Big Ten win matrix.

Table 2: Updated Big Ten expected wins and win distribution matrix as of Jan. 27, 2025. All changes (shown in parathesis) are relative to Jan. 20, 2025.

Michigan State leads the way with an expected conference win total of 15.25, but Purdue is right on the Spartans' heels with a total of 15.01. Michigan is a game-and-a-half back at 13.51. Then there is a cluster of teams including Wisconsin (13.00), Illinois (12.60), and Maryland (12.60) which are all one-half to one game behind the Wolverines.

Table 3 below shows how these expected win totals translate into odds to at least share the Big Ten title.

Table 3: Odds to win or share the Big Ten regular season title and the win distributions for those winning teams as of Jan. 27, 2025. All changes (shown in parathesis) are relative to Jan. 20, 2025.

The Spartans have opened up a narrow lead in odds and for the first time this season (for any Big Ten team) the odds are solidly over 50%. It is now more likely than not that Michigan State (53.5%) will win Tom Izzo's 11th Big Ten Title. The glass is now officially a little more than half full.

As the expected win total data suggests, Purdue (44%) is now the Spartans' biggest competition. Michigan (17%) is a distant third and Wisconsin (8.2%), Illinois (5.0%), and Maryland (4.1%) are now longshots. No other Big Ten team has odds currently over one percent.

For the Big Ten Tournament, Michigan State has the best current odds (41.7%) to claim the No. 1 seed. The Spartans also claim the No. 1 seed in the most likely scenario where the currently projected favorites win all remaining conference games. It that scenario, Michigan State wins the solo Big Ten title with a record of 17-3 over No. 2 Michigan (16-4) and No. 3 Purdue (15-5).

In this scenario, there is a three-way tie at 14-6 for fourth place between Maryland, Illinois, and Wisconsin. The Maryland Terrapins win the tiebreaker due to the head-to-head record against the Badgers and Fighting Illini.

Note that while Purdue does have very solid odds to at least share the Big Ten title, the Boilermakers have a tough set of road games left on the schedule. Purdue still has to travel to face Michigan, Michigan State, Illinois, and rivals Indiana. 

What's Next for Michigan State

Figure 2 below summarizes the projected point spread and win probabilities of all of Michigan State's remaining conference games. 

Figure 2: Odds for MSU to win the remaining Big Ten games, based on Kenpom efficiency margins.

In the most likely single scenario referenced above, the Spartans takes three loses in the road games at Illinois (-3.8 projected spread), Michigan (-2.8), and Maryland (-3.0). 

The upcoming game at UCLA also projects as virtual toss-up and the Spartans project to be just over a one-point favorite at home against Purdue (-1.2). Those are the five toughest games left on the schedule.

Looking chronologically, the next five games include four of the easiest games left on the schedule. The Spartans can afford to lose one game in that stretch, but probably not two. By Valentine's Day, the Spartans will ideally have a record no worse than 12-1, if we continue to think optimistically.

The next four games, starting with the road game at Illinois, then the home game versus Purdue, and then the road games at Michigan and at Maryland, make up the late-season gauntlet that will likely determine is the Spartans will ultimately win a Big Ten title or not. All four games are tough, and the expected win total is just 1.68. If Michigan State can at least earn a split and can get to a record of 14-3 or better, they will be in great shape.

The final set of three games against Wisconsin, at Iowa, and versus Michigan all look equally challenging. The Spartans could likely afford to drop one of those games, resulting in a final record of 16-4 and still hang a banner. My latest simulation suggests that a final record of 16-4 gives Michigan State a Big Ten Championship in 84% of cases. 

There is still a lot of work to be done in East Lansing, but for now I see no reason to believe that the glass is anything but half full.