Back in the month of December as Big Ten basketball conference play was just getting started, It was clear that the mid February schedule was going to be a grinder. Specifically, the four game stretch featuring games at Illinois, versus Purdue, at Michigan, and at Maryland looked daunting. To make matters even worse, the first three games of this gauntlet were squeezed into a seven-day window.
At the time, just getting a split in that four-game stretch seemed like an optimistic target. Following the Spartans' disappointing west coast road trip, my analysis gave the same result. But that was assuming the Green and White would take care of business against Oregon and Indiana at home.
When Michigan State dropped the game to the Hoosiers, the Spartans' hopes for a Big Ten Championship dimmed significantly. Getting even just a split in late February would likely not be enough to raise a banner. Things looked bleak.
With the Spartans' backs suddenly against the wall, they did what championship-caliber teams do: they found yet another gear. Michigan State didn't just earn a split in that four-game stretch. So far, they are 3-0 all will have a solid shot to earn a sweep next week at Maryland.
Michigan State is not just winning, they are winning in style, mostly on the road, and against teams that all sent significant time in the national polls. If it were not for a garbage time three-pointer with three seconds left on the clock against Purdue, the Spartans would have won all three games by double digits. Michigan State held at least a two-possession lead in the final five minutes of all three games.
The Spartans haven't just won the last three games against teams that have all been serious Big Ten contenders for most of the season. The Spartans have been dominant.
How were the Spartans able to humble the Wolverines on Friday night and what does it mean for the Big Ten race? As always, let's dig into the numbers.
Four Factors Analysis of Michigan State's win at Michigan
Figure 1 below provides an analysis for Michigan State's 75-62 win at Michigan on Feb. 22, 2025.
 |
| Figure 1: Summary of the Four Factors in Michigan State's 75-62 win at Michigan on Feb. 22, 2025. |
Why did Michigan State win?
The Spartans carved out a major advantage in shots from the field (61-to-50) by winning the turnover battle (11-to-15) and dominating the boards (34-to-25). Both teams shot the ball reasonably well, but Michigan State held a narrow edge there as well (53.3% to 51% effective field goal percentage).
The only area where the Wolverines had any advantage was at the free throw line, which is a little odd considering the Spartans lead the conference in free throw rate and Michigan is ranked No. 5. Neither team shot over 70% from the charity stripe, however, and the free throw line only wound up netting one point for Michigan.
Michigan State won the three most important factors, which translated into a double-digit win. As for MSU fans, what can I say? Beating your biggest rival is good. Beating your biggest rival on the road is great. Beating your biggest rival by double digits on the road to move into first place is simply outstanding.
Update on the Big Ten race
Table 1 below gives the updated enhanced Big Ten standings of Saturday evening, Feb. 22. Oregon's upset win in Madison over Wisconsin on Saturday afternoon is included.
 | |
|
With the win over Michigan on Friday night, the Spartans have moved into first place the standings by half a game over the Wolverines and a two games over Wisconsin, Maryland, and Purdue. Both Michigan State and Michigan are at +5 in the plus/minus metric.
The Spartans now own the best conference strength of resume at +4.04 and Michigan finally dropped in the luck metric down to +2.72, still good enough for first place in the conference.
Table 2 below shows the updated Big Ten expected win matrix.
 |
| Table 2: Updated Big Ten expected wins and win distribution matrix as of Feb. 22, 2025. All changes (shown in parathesis) are relative to Feb. 19, 2025. |
The Spartans surged into the lead at 15.42 wins, a half-game ahead of Michigan (14.87) and well over a game ahead of Wisconsin (14.03). Michigan State has an 11.9% chance to run the table and a 48% chance to finish at 16-4 or better.
Table 3 below gives the updated odds to at least share the Big Ten regular season title.
 |
| Table 3: Odds to win or share the Big Ten regular season title and the win distributions for those winning teams as of Feb. 22, 2025. All changes (shown in parathesis) are relative to Feb. 19, 2025 |
The events of the past 36 hours have pushed the Spartans' odds to 72.8% with a 44% chance of it being a solo title. Michigan (44.6%) is likely now the only likely other serious contender as Wisconsin's upset loss on Saturday dropped the Badgers' odds down to just 15.6%.
Maryland (10.4%) and Purdue (6.8%) still have an outside chance at Big Ten glory.
As for the Big Ten Tournament, Michigan State is now the overwhelming favorite to earn the No. 1 seed (60%). There is also an 80% chance that the Spartans are at least the No. 2 seed. It is also a virtual lock (96.4%) that Michigan State will have at least a double bye and start the tournament on Friday.
Here is another interesting fact. There is a 45% chance that the Spartans' first opponent in the Big Ten Tournament will be either Illinois or Oregon.
Big Ten Race Home Stretch
As the data above shows, the Spartans find themselves in excellent position to win Tom Izzo's record-tying 11th Big Ten regular season title. The win over Michigan and Oregon's win over Wisconsin has increased the number of possible paths to a championship for Michigan State.
If the Spartans win out (11.9% odds) they will claim a solo Big Ten title.
The only way that Michigan State would fail to win the title with a record of 16-4 is if the Wolverines run the table and hand the Spartans their only loss in the final stretch. The odds that Michigan will do this are under 5%. In fact, I give the Wolverines just a 16% chance to make it to East Lansing without another blemish on their resume.
From this point of view, the next three games for Michigan State (at Maryland, versus Wisconsin, and at Iowa) are suddenly a bit lower in stakes. The Spartans could lose any of the three games and retain complete control of their destiny.
If they enter the season finale with Michigan with a 15-4 record, they can still beat the Wolverines and at least share the title. The Spartans are currently projected to be 5.5-point favorite against Michigan on Senior Day at the Breslin Center. That translates to 70% chance that Spartan fans leave happy.
But let's say that Michigan State somehow only goes 1-2 over the next three games, mostly likely by losing at Maryland and versus Wisconsin, and are only 14-5 when they face Michigan.
If the Wolverines are 16-3 coming into the game, the Spartans will already be eliminated. But once again there is just a 16% chance of this happening. Even if Michigan State were to split the final four games of the regular season, the odds of a Big Ten title are very good as long as one of the two wins comes at the expense of the Wolverines.
Here is another way to look at. Assuming the Michigan State does not go 0-3 over the next three games (which has odds of just 7%), there is just a 5% chance that the Spartans will be out of the Big Ten race when the Wolverines come to town.
In those scenarios, there is also 33.5% chance that Michigan State will already have clinched a share of the title and a 61.3% chance that if the Spartans will need a win over Michigan on Senior Day to hang a banner. Those sound like good odds to me.
Looking Towards March
For the first time since 2019, Michigan State fans will not be sweating on Selection Sunday. The only drama will be which region the Spartans are placed in, which city the Spartans will travel to on the first weekend, and which teams will be standing in the way of Tom Izzo's ninth Final Four.
As a reference point to where things stand overall, Figure 2 below is the update Kenpom scatter plot as of Saturday, Feb. 22.
 |
| Figure 2: : Kenpom efficiency scatter plot as of Feb. 22, 2025. |
The Spartans continue to reside in the corner of the dark blue area of the figure, signifying that they are one of the currently nine teams with the combination of adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency consistent with past NCAA champions.
Michigan State is joined by Auburn, Duke, Houston, Florida, Tennessee, Arizona, Iowa State, and Texas A&M. An additional six teams reside in the light blue zone reserved for teams with borderline championship resumes. This group includes Kansas, Maryland, St. Johns, and UCLA.
A few notable ranked teams are missing for the list of potential National Title contenders. These include Alabama, Texas Tech, Wisconsin, Michigan, Purdue, Missouri, and Marquette. None of these teams have defenses that currently fit the profile.
As for what to expect on Selection Sunday, the Spartans' strong week has likely placed them solidly on the No. 3 seed line with a great shot to move up to a No. 2 seed with a strong finish.
There is no definitive way to project the final seed line, but my data suggest to me that 26 total wins might be the magic number to secure a No. 2 seed. That means either winning out in the regular season or finishing 3-1 in the regular season and at least making the Big Ten Tournament Semifinals.
A final placement on the No. 2 or No. 3 seed line would have several obvious advantages. First, it would delay a possible matchup with a No. 1 seed such as Duke or Auburn until the Regional Final.
Second, it would greatly increase the odds that the Spartans would be placed in a first weekend location (pod) that is close to home. A No. 2 or No. 3 seed would likely result in Michigan State starting the Tournament on Friday either in Cleveland, Ohio or Milwaukee, Wisc. Both sites are easily drivable for Spartan fans.
As always, stay tuned for more odds updates as the Big Ten race reaches the final stages.
Social Media Copyiiiiiiiiiiiiiiyuhjuuuuuuuuuuuuuuu
Comments
Post a Comment