If there is one thing that I have learned over the years of following sports and Michigan State sports specifically, it is this: Winning is a heck of a lot more fun that losing.
The first few days of February and the trip out west were not fun. Losing to Indiana on a day that should have been a celebration in the Breslin Center was especially unfun. The first 10 minutes of Saturday's game at Illinois were not exactly a picnic either.
But the Spartans outscored the Fighting Illini 64-to-34 in the final 28 minutes of the game to win going away. In the process, they helped Tom Izzo to finally break the all-time Big Ten conference win record.
More importantly, they won with energy, toughness, and efficiency. In other words, they once again looked like the group that went undefeated in the months of December and January.
Michigan State looked like a team that could win a championship. If they can keep this up, they might just help Tom Izzo tie yet another important record with his eleventh Big Ten regular season title. Only Bobby Knight and Purdue's Ward Lambert currently sit above Izzo in the record books.
How did the Spartan prevail and what did the weekend's results mean for the Big Ten race? Let's start with a four factors analysis of the win in Champaign.
Four Factors Analysis of Michigan State's win at Illinois
Figure 1 below provides an analysis for Michigan State's 79-65 win at Illinois on Feb. 16, 2025.
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| Figure 1: Summary of the Four Factors in Michigan State's79-65 win at Illinois on Feb. 16, 2025. |
Why did Michigan State win?
The Spartans carved out an advantage or at least a push in every phase of the game. The Spartans did a great job of taking care of the ball and outcompeted an elite rebounding team. In terms of raw numbers, the Spartans committed four fewer turnovers (7-to-11) and grabbed five more rebounds (41-to-36) including a two-rebound edge on the offensive boards (14-to-12).
As a result, the Spartans were able to put up five more shots than Illinois (68-to-63). When this statistic is combined with Michigan State's close to 10-percentage point advantage in effective field goal percentage (52%-to-44%) it translates into a double-digit win on the road.
The only area where Michigan State underachieved was in free throw rate, but this was a push. Both teams shot just 13 free throws as the officials did not call very many fouls, especially in the first half. On a day when the Spartans missed more freebies than usual (shooting just 61.5%) it was maybe a good night to have a slow whistle.
Big Ten Race Update
Table 1 below shows the update enhanced Big Ten standings as of Monday, February 17.
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| Table 1: Enhanced Big Ten standings as of Feb. 17, 2025. |
Michigan State was able to atone for the home lose to Indiana with a road game to bring the Spartan's plus/minus rating back up to +4. Unfortunately, Michigan was able to eke out yet another close win at Ohio State on Sunday to move a full game ahead of the Spartans in the standings and two games ahead in plus/minus.
Purdue and Wisconsin remain a game behind the Spartans in the loss column with UCLA and Maryland two games back.
Table 2 gives the updated Big Ten win distribution matrix.
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| Table 2: Updated Big Ten expected wins and win distribution matrix as of Feb. 17, 2025. All changes (shown in parathesis) are relative to Feb. 12, 2025. |
Michigan (15.58 wins) now holds a full game lead in expected wins over Wisconsin (14.57). The Spartans (14.22) are currently in third place, just ahead of Purdue (14.16). Maryland (13.54) and UCLA (13.26) round out the top six.
Table 3 shows how these projected wins translate into odds to win or share the regular season Big Ten title.
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| Table 3: Odds to win or share the Big Ten regular season title and the win distributions for those winning teams as of Feb. 17, 2025. All changes (shown in parathesis) are relative to Feb. 12, 2025. |
The win over the Buckeyes on Sunday bumped the Wolverines' odds to at least share the Big Ten title to over 70%. In just under half of simulations, Michigan wins a solo title.
Wisconsin and Michigan State are close to a dead heat in odds at around 26% with Purdue's odds now down to just 16%. Maryland (7%) and UCLA (3%) are still longshots.
With Michigan stubbornly refusing to lose, the odds that a record of 16-4 or better will be needed to at least share the regular season title is up to 74%. That is a major problem for the teams with five losses (Maryland and UCLA) and it means that Purdue and Wisconsin likely need to run the table to hang a banner. The Spartans can afford to drop one game, but it most likely cannot be against Michigan.
As for the Big Ten Tournament, Michigan State now has a 65% chance to secure a top-four seed. If the Green and White can finish with a record of 15-5, the double bye is virtually guaranteed. It is highly likely (69% odds) with a 14-6 record, but very unlikely (11%) at 13-7.
Path to a Big Ten Title
Despite the decisive road win at Illinois, the Spartans' odds to earn at least a share of a Big Ten title currently stand at just one-in-four. But there are reasons for optimism buried deeper in the data.
As Tables 2 and 3 show, Michigan State (No. 17) is currently ranked as the fourth best Big Ten team in overall Kenpom adjusted efficiency margin behind Wisconsin (No. 9), Purdue (No. 10), and Maryland (No. 14).
But if we just look at the data from conference play only, the rankings are a bit difficult. Those data are shown below in Figure 2.
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| Figure 2: Raw (unadjusted) Kenpom Big Ten efficiency margins in conference play only. |
The analysis suggests that Michigan State has been the strongest team overall in Big Ten play. Purdue, Wisconsin, and Maryland round out the top four, with Michigan down at No. 7. This result suggests the the current Big Ten leaders might not actually be the best. It also suggests that the Spartans odds to finish the season strong are better than the full season adjusted values suggest.
Michigan State still has home games remaining against Purdue, Michigan, and Wisconsin, and road games at Maryland and at Michigan. The Spartans still very much control their own destiny, and they may have better odds to win those five games than a traditional analysis would predict.
But even if the Spartans just win three of those five tough games against the Big Ten contenders, there is a good chance that Michigan will edge out the Spartans in the final standings. But this assumes that the Wolverines will continue to win at their current clip.
As Figure 2 shows, Michigan is only playing like the seventh best team in the league on a possession-by-possession basis. A closer look at Table 1 shows that the Wolverines are the overwhelming leader in the luck metric at +3.00 through 14 games. Michigan's expected record so far is only 9-7.
While "luck" is very difficult to distinguish from "grit" the magnitude of the value is currently approaching a level that is a borderline statistical anomaly. A simulation of the full Big Ten season suggests that the standard deviation for "luck" over the full 20 games is right around 2.0. The odds of having a value of +3.00 at this point in the season is just 2%.
This suggests to me that Michigan is overdue for a regression to the mean. The Wolverines are projected to be the favorite in five of their remaining six games with an expected win total of 3.6 in that span. Underachievement (a record of 3-3 or worse) seems likely, which would give Michigan at least five losses.
In any event, the next five days of Michigan State basketball will provide a clear answer as to whether or not the Spartans are truly championship material. We have know for months that the four-game stretch between the road game at Illinois and the road game at Maryland would be the gauntlet that would likely decide the Spartans' fate.
The win in Champaign was a very positive sign to open the gauntlet, but the next two games against Purdue on Tuesday and at Michigan on Friday could be even more decisive. Winning both games would but the Spartans squarely back in the lead for a Big Ten title. A performance short of that will leave Michigan State with a steep, uphill battle.
More quantitatively, the Spartans will likely be about a two-point favorite against the Boilermakers and a 2.5-point underdog at Michigan. Based on these projected spreads, Figure 3 below projects the Big Ten odds for the top four contenders based on the four possible outcomes of these two key contests.
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| Figure 3: Projected Big Ten odds for each of the four possible scenarios for Michigan State basketball for the week of Feb. 17, 2025. The odds of each scenario, based on the projected point spreads, are shown under each set of bars. |
If the Spartans split the two games, their odds will stay in the 20-30% range, similar to where they are today. A win over Michigan is clearly better than a win over Purdue. This is the least likely result, and it would result in the very competitive finish to the Big Ten race.
If the Spartans beat Purdue, but lose to Michigan, the Wolverines' Big Ten odds will rise to over 85%. The only upside to this scenario is that a win over Purdue would boost the Spartans' odds for a double bye in the Big Ten Tournament to over 70%.
If the Spartans can earn the sweep this week, Michigan State would once again claim the top spot in Big Ten odds, likely superseding Michigan by more than 10 percentage points. The odds of this scenario are just under 25%.
If the Spartans fail to get a win over either Purdue or Michigan, their Big Ten odds would sink to below 5%. In this scenario, it would be time to start focusing on the postseason.
As always, make sure to check out the data and stats tracker for all the latest data on the Big Ten race.
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Michigan State got off to a great start on Saturday with a win at Illinois to kickoff the four-game gauntlet that will determine the Spartans' Big Ten fate. But the next two games loom larger than ever. We break down the odds of how it all might go down.
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