It goes without saying the Michigan State's trip to the west coast did not go as planned. The Spartans boarded the plane to California with a perfect Big Ten record, but returned home with back-to-back losses to USC and UCLA. The two game lead in the Big Ten standings has completely evaporated.
While this mid-season slump is frustrating for Michigan State fans, it is also a staple of the Tom Izzo program. For whatever reason, the end of January and especially early February are the "Tom Izzo Bermuda Triangle." It is a documented fact that the Spartans tend to underachieve during this part of the season, but tend to finish the season strong after that. The 2024-25 season is no different, so far.
With just over half of the Big Ten season now in the books, it is time to get down to business. What went wrong in California and what does it mean for the Spartans' chances to win a Big Ten title? Let jump right into the analysis.
Four Factors Summary of the Loss to UCLA
Figure 1 below provides a summary for Michigan State's 61-63 loss at UCLA on Feb. 4, 2025 from the point of view of the Four Factors.
 | |
| Figure 1: Summary of the Four Factors in Michigan State's 61-63 loss at UCLA on Feb. 4, 2025. |
Based on the raw shooting numbers, the Spartan were able to carve out a narrow advantage. Michigan State had a better effective field goal percentage (42.5% to 40.8%) and a higher free throw rate (35.9 to 31.7). The Spartans also hit two more free throws (16-to-14) on the same number of attempts.
Michigan State also had a big advantage in rebounding rate (42.4% to 20.5%) and raw rebounds (45-to-27). Despite the fact the Spartans shot well below their season average, these advantages should have been enough to secure victory.
But in this game it was turnovers that won the day. Michigan State turned the ball over on 25% of their possession (16 raw turnovers) compared to just 4.7% (three turnovers) for the Bruins.
This insane gap more than made up for Michigan State's edge in offensive rebounds (14-to-8) and resulted in UCLA getting up seven more shots from the field. This higher volume allowed the Bruins to make up for their relatively poor shooting.
A turnover rate of less than 5% from UCLA was an extremely statistical anomaly. This is, by far, the lowest figure for UCLA this season and the lowest for any Michigan State opponent since 2022. If the Bruins would have turned the ball over two or three more times, it might have been the Spartans who won the game by a deuce.
If we combine this anomaly with the fact that Holloman, Richardson, and Fidler were a combined 0-for-10 from three in the game, it is hard to conclude that good old fashioned bad luck had as much or more to do with the loss as or Kohler failing to kick out his final rebound of the game or Akins missing a jump shot at the buzzer.
Big Ten Odds Update
Table 1 shows the updated enhanced Big Ten standings following the action of Thursday night (Feb. 6).
 |
| Table 1: Enhanced Big Ten standings as of Feb. 7, 2025 |
The Spartans are now a half-game behind Purdue (10-2) and are tied with Michigan (9-2). The three teams are even in the loss column and in the plus/minus metric at +4.
The loss to UCLA also dropped Michigan State to third place in conference strength of resume (+2.41) behind Michigan (+2.65) and Purdue (+2.92). This is due to the Spartans' slightly easier schedule to open Big Ten play relative to the Wolverines and Boilermakers.
Looking ahead, Purdue is now slightly over a one-game lead in expected conference wins at 15.33. Michigan State is sitting at 14.21, barely ahead of Michigan at 14.17 wins. Wisconsin (13.41), UCLA (12.79), and Maryland (12.67) round out the rest of the top six.
Table 2 below shows how these expected win totals translate into odds to at least share the Big Ten title.
 |
| Table 2: Odds to win or share the Big Ten regular season title and the win distributions for those winning teams as of Feb. 7, 2025. All changes (shown in parathesis) are relative to Feb. 2, 2025. |
The Spartans' loss to UCLA, coupled with Purdue's win at Iowa on Tuesday night has given the Boilermakers a 30-percentage point lead the Big Ten odds at 62.6%. The odds for Purdue to win a solo title are now at 40%.
Michigan State's odds have slipped to 29.1%, which is now a dead heat with Michigan (28.5%). The Wisconsin Badgers (10.3%) are also making an interesting upward push in the odds table. The Badgers have officially entered dark horse territory. UCLA (4.4%) and Maryland (2.9%) remain long shot contenders.
A Closer Look at the Big Ten Race
Are we turn to the back nine of the Big Ten schedule, it is clear that the final four weeks of the season are going to be a dog fight. Before the trip out west, it appeared that the Spartans might be able to build up a big enough lead in the standings that they could coast to a conference title. Now, it is game on.
But that is not necessarily a bad thing. If Michigan State is going to win a Big Ten title, they are going to have to earn it. They are going to need to keep improving and find another gear of performance. Whether the Spartans end up hanging a banner at the end of the regular season or not, this type of pressure will pay dividends when in comes to the Big Dance looming in March.
Furthermore, the two loses in California mean that Izzo and the Spartans have a chance to both tie and break Bobby Knight's Big Ten conference win record in front of the home crowd of Breslin Center. The record breaking win could come against Bobby Knight's former team, the Indiana Hoosiers. As long as the Spartans can beat both Oregon and Indiana and this scenario comes to pass, fans may look back at the two west coast losses once the season is done and think that the result was not all bad.
The odds shown about in Table 2 suggest that the Spartans' path to a Big Ten title is an uphill one. However, a deeper look at the data paints a more optimistic picture. First, lets take a look at the relative difficulty of each teams' remaining Big Ten schedule.
 |
| Figure 2: Big Ten strengths of schedule for remaining conference games as of Feb. 7 2025. The y-axis shows win percentage and the labels show the expected number of wins. |
There has been a lot of discussion about the relative weakness of the early portion of Michigan State's schedule. The criticism did have some merit. Going forward, Michigan State does have the most difficult remaining conference slate. An average top 25-caliber reference team would only be expected to win 45% of the games remaining on the Spartans' schedule.
But Michigan has a schedule that is just a fraction of a game (0.05) easier. Moreover, Purdue has the fourth most difficult remaining schedule. Critically, Purdue has to travel to East Lansing in the one and only head-to-head matchup with Michigan State this year. Of the three current most likely Big Ten contenders, none of them have a significant advantage in schedule.
The reason that Purdue has such as big lead in odds is that they have a notable lead in Kenpom efficiency margin which translates into slightly better odds that Purdue will win games going forward. The Spartans and Wolverines have very similar efficiency margins. But the current reality might be a bit different.
For some additions hints as to what it to come, Figure 3 below give the performance of each Big Ten team against the spread in conference play.
 |
| Figure 3: Big Ten teams' performance against the spread in all conference games as of Feb. 7, 2025. |
As the old saying goes, good teams win but great teams cover. While the majority of teams fall close to .500 against the spread, there are a few notable outliers on both sides of the figure.
As expected, Purdue and Michigan State are two of the three teams that are performing above 70% against the spread. The suggests that both teams have consistently exceeded expectations in conference play.
Interestingly, the third team above 70% against the spread is Wisconsin. Surprisingly, the other primary Big Ten contender, Michigan, has one of the worst records against the spread (3-8) in the conference. This suggests that the Wolverines have been barely scrapping by, despite their gaudy record.
A return glance at Table 1 suggests that the Wolverines also currently lead the conference in luck at +1.70. Sometimes good teams make than own luck and "luck" is simply another word for "grit." But sometimes luck is simply that: luck, and luck is not a sustainable way to compete for championships.
Another set of data that is interesting to review is the raw Kenpom efficiency margins for each team in conference play only. This is not as rigorous as the full season adjusted efficiency data that Kenpom publishes, but it does give an indication of how teams are playing right now as opposed to weighting in the performances of teams from back in November or blow outs against low major teams in December.
Figure 4 below shows these current values.
 |
| Figure 3: Big Ten teams' raw Kenpom efficiency margins in conference play only as of Feb. 7, 2025. |
Surprisingly, in Big Ten play on a possession-by-possession basis, Michigan State has a slightly higher overall efficiency (+17.7) than does Purdue (+17.5). Wisconsin (+13.1) grades out as the third most efficient team, which Illinois (+7.3) and Maryland (+7.2) rounding out the top five. Notably, Michigan is a distance sixth (+4.6).
All this data taken together suggests that Purdue and Michigan State are the two best teams in the Big Ten and the two most likely teams to compete for the title. If the level of performance in Big Ten play continues at the current level, the Boilermakers and Spartans are expected to be evenly matched coming down the stretch with essentially equal schedules.
Michigan has the current profile of a pretender which is bound to hit the skids sooner or later. I think that it is likely that Michigan winds up outside of the top four in the final Big Ten standings.
In contrast, Wisconsin is a potentially dangerous team to watch. While the Badgers are two games behind the lead pack in the loss column, but based on Figure 2, they have a relatively easy remaining schedule. Wisconsin does have games remaining in both West Lafayette and in East Lansing. The Badgers are still unlikely to grab a share of the title, but they could certainly play the role of spoiler.
The Spartans' Path to a Big Ten Title
With all this in mind, let take a look at Michigan State's remaining schedule, including the projected odds and spreads for the nine remaining regular season conference games.
 | |
|
The Spartans are most likely going to be favored in six of the final nine games, but the Green and White are going to need to overachieve to earn a share of the title. A final record of 15-5 is unlikely to be good enough (I estimate the odds at 45%) but 16-4 will very likely get the job done (86% odds).
The path to a title seems clear. First, the Spartans need to beat Oregon and Indiana in the next four days. The mission is clear: tie the record, break the record, and get to 11-2.
Then the Michigan State enters the "gauntlet of truth" in a brutal four game stretch consisting of games at Illinois, a home game versus Purdue, and a road game at Michigan. Those first three games also come in a tight six-day window. This is the stretch that will mostly determine the Spartans' fate.
The Spartans need to win at least two of those four games, and one of them really best be the home game with Purdue. Beating Michigan in Ann Arbor would also be good for lots of reasons. If the Spartans are 13-4 or better at the beginning of March, a title will likely be within reach.
The final three games of the season are all very winnable, but none of them will be easy. Michigan State will likely need to run the table to secure another banner for the Breslin rafters. The home game against Wisconsin might be the most difficult. There is also a good chance that the Spartans will need to beat arch rivals Michigan in Breslin to secure the Big Ten Title.
It will not be easy, but if the Spartans truly are championship caliber, the title is their for the taking. They just need to fight for it. Game. On.
Social Media Copy
Both Michigan State's Big Ten odds and the spirits of Spartan fans are down following the trip to the west coast. But a deep dive into the number from Dr. Green and White (@paulfanson) gives plenty of reasons for optimism.
Comments
Post a Comment