This week did not go as planned for the Michigan State Spartans. After a thrilling come back over the Oregon Ducks on Saturday. Spartan Nation was geared up for Coach Izzo and the Green and White to officially break the all-time Big Ten conference win record on Tuesday with a win against Indiana.
The expected coronation seemed like a sure thing, but the Indiana Hoosiers has other plans. The crimson and cream clad visitors ruined the night by upsetting the Spartans, 71-67.
Following the game, Coach Izzo was more down than I have seen him in a long time. It is normal for him to look annoyed or angry following a loss, but it is rare for him to look sad. I cannot think of any other word to describe his demeanor on Tuesday night as the time approached midnight.
"Disappointed is an understatement,” Izzo said to open his post-game press conference. "There's so many areas that I disappointed in... and give (Indiana head coach) Mike (Woodson) credit, he did a better job than I did."
He went on to list the areas of the game where he felt that his team came up short. Many of the Spartans' missed several easy layups early in the game. Later, they struggled with foul trouble.
"(Indiana) just pounded the ball inside, pounded the ball inside, pounded the ball inside, and we were in so much foul trouble, we didn't guard it very well," Izzo said. "We tried to make some adjustments at halftime, but we had so many strange lineups in there, we didn't do a very good job of it."
But despite Michigan State's troubles in the paint which lead to the Hoosiers shooting 63% from the field in the second half, Indiana only had 61 points with 90 seconds remaining and the Spartans initiating the foul game.
The Spartans lost primary on the offensive end, and the trouble all started halfway through the first half when the Hoosiers switch to a zone defense. Michigan State only scored 47 points in the final 30 minutes of the game following this adjustment.
"(Indiana) haven't zoned much all year, maybe minutes," Izzo explained. "We haven't run it against much zone. But then when you run into it, the shooters got to make shots, and guys that have made shots didn't make shots."
The Spartans shot just 21-for-55 (38.2%) from the field and 4-for-23 (17.4%) from deep. Those numbers simply won't cut it against almost any power four conference team. It was a recipe for disappointment on what was supposed to be Coach Izzo's "big night."
"A lot of people, including my two college roommates that came a long way, and Steve Smith and a lot of people came in for it, and I feel bad for them," Izzo lamented. "We had an opportunity for a special night. I don't think the players played very well, and I don't think the coaches coached very well. That's a bad combination against a team that was desperate."
Big Ten Race Update
Just two weeks ago, the Spartans were on top of the world and on top of the Big Ten standings. Now, after losing three of the last four games, Michigan State's Big Ten title hopes are in serious jeopardy.
Table 1 below gives the updated Big Ten regular season odds as of 5:00 p.m. on Saturday, February 15, prior to Michigan State game at Illinois, but after Wisconsin's upset win over Purdue on Saturday afternoon.
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| Table 1: Odds to win or share the Big Ten regular season title and the win distributions for those winning teams as of Feb. 12, 2025. All changes (shown in parathesis) are relative to Feb. 9, 2025. |
Michigan State's odds have fallen from a season high of 60% on Feb. 1 to just 17.5% following the loss to Indiana. Michigan (59%) currently sits atop my Big Ten odds table, with Wisconsin (40.5%) now in second place. Purdue (23.8%) remains ahead of the Spartans with Maryland (9.7%) and UCLA (5.1%) still in the chase.
It is notable that Michigan State, Michigan, and Purdue have three of the four most difficult remaining Big Ten schedules. In contrast, Wisconsin and Maryland have two of the four easiest remaining schedules.
Figure 1 below shows the Spartans' updated Big Ten win distribution.
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| Figure 1: Regular season Big Ten win probability distribution for Michigan State as of Feb. 15, 2025 |
The Spartans' updated expected win total is just 13.40 wins. The most likely scenario (55%) is that the Spartans finish at either 14-6 or 13-7 and likely a game or two out of first place. There is a 25% chance that the Spartans muster no more than 12 conference wins, and there is a 20% chance that Michigan State wins 15 or more games.
The math now says that the eventual Big Ten champion(s) will have a record of 16-4 or 15-5 (84% odds) with 16 wins being slightly more likely than 15 wins.
My analysis also suggests that if the Spartans can finish with a final record of 14-6, a top four finish and the resulting double bye in the Big Ten Tournament is very likely (83%). However, a record of 13-7 will almost certainly (84% odds) mean that that Michigan State will start the Big Ten Tournament on Thursday instead of Friday.
The Spartans' Path to Big Ten glory
The analysis above is admittedly discouraging, but Michigan State's remaining schedule, while daunting, is filled with opportunity. Figure 2 below give the odds and projected point spreads for all seven of Michigan State's remaining games.
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| Figure 2: Odds for MSU to win the remaining Big Ten games, based on Kenpom efficiency margins. |
As the figure shows, Michigan State will likely be favored in four of the remaining seven games. Six of the seven remaining contests are against teams still in the Big Ten race, based on Table 1.
If the Spartans were to run the table, they would win the regular season Big Ten title outright. Even if Michigan State were to lose to the Fighting Illini, they would still control their own destiny with two games remaining against Michigan and one game each remaining against Purdue and Wisconsin.
Following the ill-fated trip to the west coast, my analysis suggested that Michigan State needed to beat Oregon and Indiana, split the next four games, and then sweep the final three games of the season to finish at 16-4. In that scenario, a Big Ten Championship would be virtually guaranteed.
The loss to Indiana changed that calculus, but not by as much as one might think. If the Spartans can win three of the next four games, they would be back on track to potentially finish at 16-4. But even if the Spartans split the next four games, a record of 15-5 still has a good chance (68%) to earn a banner.
These odds go up substantially it the two wins in the next four games are against Purdue and at Michigan. If we assume the Spartans can sweep the last three games against Wisconsin, at Iowa, and the second game with Michigan, a win in the coming week over Purdue and at Michigan would push the Spartans' title odds to over 95%.
If the Spartans drop one of these five games, they simply do not deserve a Big Ten championship. In this scenario, the focus should shift to maximizing the Big Ten and NCAA Tournaments seeds and preparing for a postseason run.
From this point of view, tonight's game at Illinois and the later game at Maryland are the two least important games left on the schedule. While a win in both or either would certainly be helpful, they are not as critical as the other five.
All this talk of a Big Ten title may sound odd after the disappointment in three of the last four games. But the first nine games of the Big Ten season showed that this Spartan team has what it takes to claim Big Ten glory.
Other Tom Izzo Championship teams have hit a rut in early February only to rally for a Big Ten Title in early March. Some of those teams were still playing on the third weekend of the NCAA Tournament. History has a tendency to repeat itself.
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