It is amazing how quickly things can change in the final few weeks of the Big Ten Men's basketball race. On the evening of February 11, following the Michigan State Spartans' head scratching home loss to the Indiana Hoosiers, I imagined that the rest of February would play out much differently than it did.
As I looked at the Spartans' impending gauntlet of game at Illinois, versus Purdue, at Michigan, and at Maryland, I thought the Michigan State would just need to split those four games, as long as one of the wins happened in Ann Arbor.
I believed that if the Spartans could enter March with five Big Ten losses, they would have a solid shot to run the table and at least share the regular season title with some combination of Purdue, Wisconsin, or Michigan. I honestly thought Michigan had the longest odds of that group of three teams
But things did not play out that way at all. Not only did the Spartans win all four of those critical late February games, Purdue and Wisconsin both adsorbed a head scatter loss or two of their own.
Meanwhile, outside of a double-digit loss at home to the Spartans, the Michigan Wolverines continue to win ever other game by the slimmest margin possible. On Thursday night, the Wolverines needed a last second three-pointer from the logo to avoid an upset loss to Rutgers.
As a side note, while the Michigan buzzer-beater on Thursday night was cute, I suggest that next time they try it from a little farther away from the basket, on the road, against a team with a winning record, and in a game where they didn't trail almost the entire final 25 minutes of the game. It's just a thought.
With just three games to play, the Big Ten race looks like it will come right down to the wire. A big reason why is due to the Spartans' thrilling win at Maryland, which should not really been as thrilling as it turned out.
How did Michigan State get the win in College Park and what does it all mean for the Big Ten race? As always, let's dig into the data.
Four Factors Analysis of Michigan State's win at Maryland
Figure 1 below provides an analysis for Michigan State's 58-55 win at Maryland on Feb. 26, 2025.
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| Figure 1: Summary of the Four Factors in Michigan State's 58-55 win at Maryland on Feb. 27, 2025 |
Why did Michigan State win?
The Spartans held a narrow edge in effective field goal percentage as both teams were well below 40% in that category. Turnovers were almost even, with Maryland having a slight advantage in both raw numbers (11-to-12) and rate. The other two factors were blowouts, but in opposite directions.
Michigan State dominated the boards, especially on defense, netting nine more offensive rebounds than the Terrapins. However, for the second road game in a row, the opponent got way more free throw attempts than Michigan State, despite the fact that the Spartans lead the Big Ten in free throw rate.
Maryland outscored the Spartans by 11 points from the charity stripe, but Michigan State made seven more shots from the field on 17 more attempts.
Big Ten Race Update
Table 1 below shows the updated Big Ten enhanced standings as of Saturday morning, March 1.
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Table 1: Enhanced Big Ten standings as of March 1, 2025.
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The Spartans and Wolverines are once again tied at the top of the Big Ten standing with a full two-game lead over third place Wisconsin and a three-game lead over the rest of the field.
With just three games remaining, the Badgers are the only team which could theoretically pass either Michigan or Michigan State. The Wolverines and Spartans play each other to close out the regular season, so one of the two schools is guaranteed no more than five losses. This means that Wisconsin cannot win a solo title and at least one team from the Great Lakes State is going to hang a banner.
Table 2 below shows the updated Big Ten win matrix.
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Table 2: Updated Big Ten expected wins and win distribution matrix as of March 1, 2025
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This table gives us a good preview of the likely outcomes to close out the regular season. Michigan State has a 33.1% change to win out and finish at 17-3 and a 78% chance to finish at least 16-4. By contrast, Michigan has only a little under a 10% chance to win out and at 48% chance to finish at least 16-4.
Table 3 below shows how these win distributions translate into Big Ten Regular Season Championship odds.
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| Table 3: Odds to win or share the Big Ten regular season title and the win distributions for those winning teams as of Feb. 28, 2025. |
The Spartans' win at Maryland has elevated Michigan State's odds to win the Big Ten to 80% with a 56.3% chance that the title is a solo one. Michigan's odds are just under 43% with around a 20% chance at a solo title. Wisconsin's odds are hovering just below 5%.
If Michigan's final shot against Rutgers would have been off target, the Spartans' odds would have climbed to over 90%. Ironically, the Spartans' odds were essentially unchanged from before the Michigan/Rutgers game. While Michigan did get the win, they failed to cover the 9.5-point spread and thus took a small beating in the metrics. As a result, the Wolverine's odds to win any of their remaining games slipped. The result was a push.
Both Michigan and Michigan State have two games remaining before they meet at the Breslin Center on March 9 to potentially settle things for the season. Michigan State hosts Wisconsin (+2.5 estimated spread) and then travels to play Iowa (+7). Michigan hosts Illinois (+3) and Maryland (+1.5). The Spartans are projected to by about a six-point favorite at home against the Wolverines.
While the two contenders are likely to be favored in their next two games, Michigan State is generally expected to be a bigger favorite. In addition, the Spartans have over a 70% chance to beat the Wolverines in the finale. This is why Michigan State has such a big advantage in odds.
The simplest way to think about the final stretch of Big Ten play is that Michigan State has a magic number of three. In order to win at least a share of the Big Ten there has to be a combination of at least three Spartan wins and/or three Wolverine loses. But Michigan also has a magic number of three.
In the final game at Breslin, one team will automatically get a win while simultaneously handing their opponent a loss. So, both teams only need to split the final two games and then need a win over their rival to secure a title. If both teams enter the game tied, the regular season finale will become a winner-takes-all showdown.
Figure 2 below summarizes the odds for the five possible scenarios heading into the Michigan/Michigan State game at Breslin.
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Figure 2: Odds for the five possible scenarios heading into the regular season finale between Michigan and Michigan State in East Lansing on March 9.
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The best case scenario for the Spartans would be to win out while the Wolverines lose to both Illinois and Maryland. In this scenario (with 8% odds), the Spartans would clinch an outright title with a win in Iowa City and the game in East Lansing would only count for bragging rights and NCAA Tournament seeding.
In the Spartans beat Wisconsin and Iowa while the Wolverines split their next two, Michigan State would clinch a share of the Big Ten title in Iowa City, but Michigan could earn a share of the title as well with a win in East Lansing. This scenario has odds of 30%. Included in these odds is the less likely scenario where Michigan State splits the last two while Michigan loses out.
There are three different ways for the teams to enter the final game with identical records. Thus, the winner-take-all scenario is most likely at 39%.
There is also a set of scenarios (20%) where Michigan clinches a share of the Big Ten title and it is the Spartans who would need a win in order to claim a Big Ten title as well a a scenario where Michigan State is eliminated from Big Ten contention prior to the regular season finale (3%).
The bottom line is this: as long as Michigan State does not lose the next two games, all they need to do is beat Michigan to win Big Ten title. If you believe that the Spartans are going to beat Michigan for the 22nd time in the last 25 meetings in the Breslin Center, the odds of a Big Ten title are 97%.
Big Ten Tournament Preview
Purdue defeated UCLA on Friday night and as a result, Michigan State is locked into a double bye in the Big Ten Tournament. Table 4 below shows the updated odds matrix for the Big Ten Tournament
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| Table 4: Big Ten Tournament seeding odds as of March 1, 2025 |
The worst seed the Spartans can draw is the No. 3 seed. There is now a 77% chance that they will be the No. 1 seed, a 12% chance that they end up as the No. 2 seed, and a 11% chance that they fall to the No. 3 seed.
In the case of a tie for first place with Michigan, the Spartans get the No. 1 seed 96% of the time. In the rare case of a three-way tie with Michigan, Michigan State, and Wisconsin, the Spartans would get the No. 1 seed in 71% of cases.
Any way you slice it, the No. 1 seed is very likely in the Spartans future, which means Michigan State is most likely starting the Big Ten Tournament on Friday at noon. Block your work calendars now.
The four teams which are the most likely first Spartans' opponents in the Big Ten Tournament are Oregon (27%), Illinois (25%), Indiana (16%), and Ohio State (13%). The most likely sets of scenarios (where the projected favorites generally win) have Illinois as the No. 8 seed and Indiana as the No. 9 seed.
I can imagine that quite a few Spartan players, coaches and fans would relish the chance to face the Hoosiers a second time. But there is still a lot of basketball to be played before we get to that point.
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