Back in the summer, when I was reviewing the overall schedule for the Michigan State Spartans, I had a feeling that there was one specific game which could be the defining event for both the 2025 season and the young Jonathan Smith tenure. There was one game, more than any of the others, that I felt would signal whether Spartans fans would be ready to party in 2025 or if they would need to cool the engines.
It was more than a feeling, if I am being honest. That feeling was that the Spartans' performance against a certain group of guys from Boston would be bellwether for the rest of the season and possibly beyond. That weekend is now upon us as the Boston College Eagles are on their way to Spartan Stadium.
Spartan fans are used to bad news recently. They are ready to have that peace of mind that the program is headed in the right direction. Getting a win over a Pour Four team in the non-conference, even a middle-of-the-road ACC team, is the step that Michigan State needs to take.
If Michigan State stumbles against the Eagles, I have a feeling that the Green and White will struggle, and likely fail, to make a bowl game. Several of the Spartans' future Big Ten opponents looked weaker than expected in Week One. But the Boston College game is likely no better than the third easiest game remaining on the schedule.
If Michigan State can eke out a win, it will certainly be a positive sign. It still might be tough to find four more wins on the 2025 schedule, but it is easy to imagine getting there.
It's been a long time since Michigan State has enjoyed a winning season. Just getting to 0.500 this year won't leave many Spartan fans feeling satisfied, but it is the first and most important milestone in the Jonathan Smith rebuild.
However, at my core I am an optimistic person. In this case, I have a feeling that the Spartans will come out strong and may even beat the Eagles by double digits. If the Spartans can play tough. smart football for 60 minutes, and if the coaching staff can make the needed adjustments as the game progresses, I have more than a feeling that is exactly what we will see.
In this scenario, I would say hitch a ride on the Jonathan Smith train, don't look back, and enjoy the journey. Don't be afraid to dream big.
Michigan State Prediction
Saturday marks just the eighth all-time meeting between the Michigan State Spartans and the Boston College, with the Eagles leading the series 5-1-1. Note that three of the previous seven games were played prior to 1950.
Last season, the Spartans gave up a 42-yard touchdown pass with 1:28 left in the game in the 23-19 loss in Boston. Michigan State also fell to the Eagles and quarterback Matt Ryan in the 2007 Champs Sports Bowl in Orlando, Florida, 24-21.
Boston College has only visited East Lansing two times previously. Most recently the Spartans earned their only victory over Boston College in the series in a 25-21 win in 1995. The only other visit to Michigan ended in a 34-20 loss for the Spartans back in 1946.
Last week Boston College opened the season with a 66-10 win over FCS opponent Fordham. The Eagles put up 458 passing yards, but just 98 yards on the ground against a team that Bill Connelly ranks as just the No. 98 team (of 129) in the FCS.
The Spartans opened as a three-point favorite at home and the spread has increased slightly to 4.5 points. The bookmakers have set the point total at 45.5 points. Based on the opening spread, Michigan State has a 58% chance to win the game straight up.
My algorithm has a positive feeling about the chances for the Green and White. My computer projects a final score of Michigan State 31, Boston College 22. Based on the point total, my analysis also recommends taking the over on points. As for that prediction, I think I like it.
I should also mention that ESPN's FPI metric is picking the Eagles in an upset by less than a point. We will see this weekend whose computer is more connected to a higher power.
Big Ten Overview
Table 1 below gives a full summary of the action in the Big Ten in Week Two, including my projected scores, the opening point spread, and the feelingless computers' projected point differential.
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| Table 1: Summary of Big Ten action in Week Two, including my algorithms' projected scores. The teams shaded in green are projected to cover by my algorithm. The teams shaded red are projected to cover by the FPI. |
All 18 Big Ten teams are in action this week. Thirteen of those 18 games either involve an FCS-level opponent or the point spread is at least 14 points. Of those 13 games, Northwestern (-18.4, projected), Purdue (-18.2), Maryland (-16), and Rutgers (-14) are the most likely potential upset victims versus Western Illinois, Southern Illinois, Northern Illinois, and Miami of Ohio, respectively.
The Oregon Ducks are facing another Power Four team in Oklahoma State (+27.5), but the Cowboys are unlikely to keep the game close.
The remaining five games, including the Michigan State/Boston College game discussed above, are potentially more intriguing. The remaining four games are all on the road.
Illinois travels to Duke (+2.5) while UCLA is on the road at UNLV (+2.0). Both Big Ten teams are narrowly favored and my computer is far more confident that Illinois will get the win.
The Hawkeye make the two-hour drive to Ames to face interstate rival Iowa State (-3). Both computers like the Cyclones to cover.
The biggest game on the Big Ten schedule is Michigan's trip to Norman to face the Oklahoma Sooners (-5). Both computers have Oklahoma winning the game. My computer forecasts a double-digit win for the home team while ESPN's FPI has the Sooners winning by just one point.
My computer was thoroughly unimpressed with the Wolverines performance in Week One against New Mexico. I am not convinced that Oklahoma is all that good, but either way I have a feeling that it could be a rough evening for the Maize and Blue.
Other Notable National Action
Table 2 below summarizes the notable action across the rest of the college football lanscape in Week 2.
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| Table 2: Summary of other notable action in Week Two, including my algorithms' projected scores. Teams shaded red are predicted to cover by ESPN's metric. Teams shaded in green are predicted to cover by my algorithm (or by both metrics). |
Outside of the Big Ten action discussed above, there are very few Power Four games that are likely to be impactful. One exception is that Ole Miss travels to Kentucky (+9) with the Rebels hoping to get a jump on the SEC race.
Arizona State (-7) will similarly try to gain some early momentum on the road at Mississippi State while fellow Big 12 member Baylor (+4) travels to SMU. Both computers like Mississippi State to at least cover, but the machines are split on the SMU/Baylor game. The FPI likes SMU to win and cover while my computer has Baylor with an upset.
Vanderbilt at Virginia Tech (-1) is unlikely to impact the broader college football landscape, but I have a feeling that a competitive game featuring an SEC and an ACC team in Week Two will be fun.
The remaining 12 games shown in Table 2 highlight some potentially interesting games featuring members of the Group of Five.
In six of these contests, a potential playoff contender has a competitive game that could be helpful to pad their resume. Tulane (-10) is the current leader in the Group of Five clubhouse. This week the Green Wave need to survive a Sun Belt road trip to South Alabama.
Texas San Antonio (-5), Toledo (-5.5), and Liberty (-6) all have early tests versus Texas State, Western Kentucky, and at Jacksonville State, respectively. These teams will need to pass those tests in order to stay in the hunt for a playoff spot.
San Diego State got my attention last week by shutting out Stony Brook from the FCS. If the Aztecs can win on the road at Washington State (-3) they might be a Mountain West contender.
The other six games in Table 2 all feature Group of Five playoff contenders as big underdogs against Power Four opponents, mostly on the road. A win by any of these six teams would almost certainly make them the new favorite to make the playoffs.
In the American Athletic Conference, South Florida (+18.5) looks to build on the Week One win over Boise State with a road trip to face Florida. Rice (+14) hosts cross-town rival Houston, and Army (+16) has a chance to erase the memory of a Week One loss to Tarleton State with a road test at Kansas State.
James Madison (+15) hopes to gain some early momentum with a win at Louisville. It might take a miracle, but Louisiana Tech (+37.5) and San Jose State (+36) would certainly make a statement if either team could get a win at LSU or at Texas, respectively.
While all six of these teams are heavy underdogs, historical upset frequency suggest that there is a 44% chance that at least one of those teams gets a win.
Picks of the Week
The sections above highlighted several potential upsets and recommended picks against the spread. Figure 1 below gives an overview summary of all of my computer's projections for the week in comparison to the opening Vegas spread. The same data generated by EPSN's Football Power Index is shown in Figure 2.
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| Figure 1: Comparison of the projected final margins of victory based on my algorithm to the opening Vegas lines for Week Two. |
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| Figure 2: Comparison of the projected final margins of victory based on ESPN's FPI to the opening Vegas lines for Week Two. |
A brief explanation of how to read these figures can be found in last week's Bad Betting Advice column. This week's upset picks (the games appearing to the left of the vertical red lines in both figures) are summarized below in Table 3.
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| Table 3: Summary of upset picks for Week Two |
Both computers are forecasting a total of six upset picks this week. They agree on picking Virginia over North Carolina State, UNLV over UCLA, and Fresno State over Oregon State. My computer also takes Mississippi State, San Diego State, and Baylor for the win. The FPI prefers Jacksonville State, Boston College, and Duke.
A simple simulation of the week's games suggest that a total of 9.6 plus-or-minus 2.6 upsets is most likely.
The games shown above in Figures 1 and 2 which fall outside of either set of dashed diagonal lines make up the set of suggested bets against the spread. Those selections are summarized below in Table 4.
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| Table 4: Picks against the opening spread for Week Two. The picks are listed in order of confidence score. |
My computer suggests a total of seven upset picks while my analysis of the FPI data adds an additional eight picks. Just over half of these picks are for very heavy underdogs (at least 30 points) to cover the spread.
Two other picks are for teams just shy of 20-point underdogs to cover, and the only favorite the the computers like this week is for USC (-27.5) to cover against Georgia Southern.
Finally, Table 5 below summarizes my computer's recommended point total bets for the week.
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| Table 5: Recommended total points bets (over/under) for Week Two. Note that the picks labeled as "locks" are at a higher level of confidence. |
The data in Week Two is weird due to the very limited information that college football fans have in general. As a result, my computer has a total point bet recommendation in 36 of the 50 total games this week involving two FBS teams.
That said, my Week Two point total bets have historically been very strong. Since I starting tracking the data in 2022, the overall recommended point total bet performance is 55-38 (59%) while the locks have gone 12-5 (71%).
That is all the advice I have for you this week. I hope that you had a good time. Until next time, enjoy the games.
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