Against All Odds, 2025 Week Three: Tepid

The English language is amazing sometimes. Certain words exist that go far beyond simple sounds that represent concepts. Those word also somehow capture the feelings behind those concepts. Some of the better words in this category describe situations which are decidedly average, yet somehow both more and less.

A classic example is the word "moist." It doesn't mean "wet" and it doesn't mean "dry." It means something in-between that (unless it is in the context of cake) is somehow worse than both. Moist. It evokes a gross feeling of mild dampness. If you say the word "moist" over and over and over again, it losses its meaning entirely and leaves the speaker feeling oddly unsettled

Another word that I would place in this category perfectly describes my current feelings about Michigan State football. That word is "tepid." 

The Oxford dictionary's first definition of tepid is "(especially of a liquid) only slightly warm; lukewarm." The second definition is "showing little enthusiasm."

In principle, the Spartans are off to a hot 3-0 start after three games. While that is certainly a good thing, all of the wins had a certain lackluster nature. Michigan State played a poor second half against Western Michigan and just gave up three touchdowns to an FCS opponent. 

The win over Boston College was exciting. But the Eagles laid an egg in a loss to a not-very-good Stanford team late Saturday night. That result has had a chilling effect on my opinion about the closeness of the Spartans' win in Week Two.

Western Michigan also failed to score a point in a blowout loss at Illinois this weekend. That result also gives me pause.

The rather narrow 17-point margin of victory over Youngstown State does not worry me so much. I spent a lot of time in this week's Bad Betting Advice preview warning fans that the game was going to be closer than expected. The Penguins have a tough, well-coached team that would likely be competitive in the MAC. There are several FBS teams that would likely lose to Youngtown State on a neutral field.

But the rash of injuries on Saturday afternoon to players like Nick Marsh, Makhi Frazier, and Luka Vincic leave me a bit cold and concerned.

So after three weeks of football in East Lansing, I am personally feeling tepid about the current trajectory of the season. There is still time for Spartans to catch fire and get hot. 

But there is also a chance that the season could end up feeling like a can of Vernors left out on the counter overnight: the taste might be OK, but it is undeniably lukewarm and a bit flat.

Week Three Betting Results

Now it's time to review the results of last week's hot takes from my Bad Betting Advice article, starting with the overview summary shown below in Figure 1. More information about how to read this figure can be found in last week's edition of Against All Odds.

Figure 1: Results of Week Three showing the actual point differentials relative to the opening spread.

A total of eight hot teams are in the overachiever category in Week Three: Michigan, North Texas, East Carolina, Louisiana Tech, Miami, Missouri, Oklahoma, and Memphis. Two teams experienced the chill of underachievement, yet still won: Texas and Buffalo. 

A total of 13 teams took frigid upset losses in Week Three. Table 1 below summarizes those upsets and compares them to the picks made last week.

Table 1: Upsets in Week Three based on the opening Vegas line compared to the upset projections from last week.

The biggest upsets of the weekend were New Mexico's dismantling of UCLA (-14), Delaware's upset of UConn (-11), and Stanford's late-night win over Boston College (-10.5). Other notable upsets include Old Dominion over Virginia Tech (-7.5), Texas A&M over Notre Dame (-6.5), Georgia Tech over Clemson (-5.5), Vanderbilt over South Carolina (-5), West Virginia over Pittsburgh (-3.5), and California over Minnesota (-1.5).

Both computers continued continued to be on a heater this week. My algorithm went 5-4 (56%) which brings the year to-date-performance to 12-8 (60%). ESPN's FPI was 3-3 (50%) for the week, bringing its year-to-date tally to 8-11 (42%). Both machines are performing above the benchmark of 40%.

Table 2 below gives the results of the computers' picks against the opening spread.

Table 2: Results of the highlighted picks against the spread for Week Three.

My algorithm went a blazing 4-3 (57%) for the second week in a row. As a result, the year-to-date performance sits at 8-6 (also 57%). My analysis of the FPI data resulted in a 3-2 record for the week (60%) which brings the year-to-date results to 17-11 (61%).

Overall for the week my computer went 25-22 (53%) against the spread (ATS), bringing the year-to-date total to 68-77 (47%). The FPI was a little better overall at 28-19 (60%) and for the year is 77-68 (53%).

Table 3 below gives the results of the point total bets for Week Three.

Table 3: Results of the recommended point total bets ("over/under") for Week Three

My point total suggestions have been ice cold so far this year, but the results of Week Three may signal a warming trend. The lock picks went 3-1 (75%) which brings the year-to-date total to 8-12 (40%). The complete set of recommended point-total bets went 13-9 (59%) and that brings the overall tally to 36-50 (42%) for the year.

Updated Big Ten Odds and Expected Wins

Following the results of Week Three, I have re-run the full season Monte Carlo simulation using the updated power rankings, including the current uncertainty in those rankings, to update the season odds for each team. Table 4 below gives the update for the Big Ten conference and Table 5 shows the updated Big Ten win distribution matrix.

Note that all the rankings listed in the table and below refer to my computer's power rankings and not any of the national polls.

Table 3: Updated Big Ten rankings, expected wins, strengths of schedule and season odds following Week Three.

Table 4: Updated Big Ten win distribution matrix after Week Three.

Overall the Big Ten enjoyed a warm weekend with a few isolated cold spots.

Of the 15 total games, 10 of them were expected blow-out wins. Illinois, Iowa, Indiana, Michigan, Nebraska, and Penn State all held the opponent to seven points or less. 

Ohio State won big, but failed to cover against Ohio. The Oregon Ducks and USC Trojans both earned their first Big Ten wins of the season on the road over Northwestern and Purdue, respectively. Neither of the favored teams covered, however.

The results of the other three Big Ten contests sent chills up the spines of their fans. Wisconsin was not expected to win at Alabama, but the Badgers failed to cover the 20.5-point spread. Minnesota was then upset by double-digits at California.

But no team in the Big Ten has had a colder start than the UCLA Bruins. The New Mexico Lobos came to Pasadena as 14-point underdogs and left with a 25-point win. UCLA head coach DeShaun Foster was let go by the University in the ensuing firestorm.

No. 5 Oregon (40.3% odd to make the Big Ten Championship Game), No. 3 Ohio State (33.8%), and No. 6 Penn State (29.8%) remain in the top three top in my Big Ten odds leaderboard as well as in the top six of my national power rankings. 

No. 7 Indiana (21.4%) and No. 8 Illinois (22.3%) improved in position in both metrics as well thanks to impressive shutout wins.

Michigan was hottest team in the Big Ten in Week Three, vaulting up 34 spots to No. 10 in my current power ranking. The Wolverines destroyed Central Michigan and also benefited greatly from the big wins by their previous opponents New Mexico and Oklahoma. I now give Michigan a 19.3% chance to make the Big Ten Championship Game.

The only other Big Ten teams with greater than a 5% chance to make the conference title game are No. 19 USC (13.1%) and No. 29 Nebraska (7.7%).

Remaining Schedule for Michigan State

Michigan State won as expected on Saturday to move to a perfect 3-0 on the season. But the Spartans have not covered the spread yet this season and the college football results outside of East Lansing in Week Three almost all trended in a negative direction. The result is a significant cooling of the Spartans' season prospects.

The Spartans dropped 15 spots to No. 64 in my power rankings. Despite the win on Saturday, the expected win total slid almost a full game down to 5.86 wins. Michigan State gets enough wins to qualify for a bowl game is just 54% of my most recent season simulations.

I currently give the Spartans a 0.53% chance to make the Big Ten Championship Game, a 1-in-650 chance to win the Big Ten, a 1.2% chance to make the playoffs, and a 1-in-7,000 chance to win the National Title.

Figure 2 below gives my computer's updated projections for the point spreads and victory odds for the Spartans' remaining nine games. As a reference, the projected odds from my preseason calculations are also shown in Figure 2 along with the values from last week.

Figure 2: Updated odds and spread projections for Michigan State's remaining games, following Week Three and based on a 50,000 cycle Monte Carlo simulation. The odds calculated last week are shown as a reference.

Last week several of the games on the Spartans' schedule looked more manageable, but in many cases those odds have snapped back to the preseason values. It is like my microprocessor experienced a week-long hot flash.

As for now, the projected spreads in the road games at USC (-16), Nebraska (-11.5), and Indiana (-20), and the home games against Michigan (-11.5) and Penn State (-15) are once again all in the double digits. Note that the Vegas line for next weekend's game at USC opened at -14 for USC and has since increased to -17.5.

Fortunately, the home gain against UCLA (+17) is looking even more winnable than it did a week ago. As a worst case scenario, the Spartans should at least have four wins by mid October. 

The Spartans still project to be slight underdogs in the other three games at the tail end of the schedule. The Nov. 1 game at Minnesota (+5.5) and the Nov. 22 game at Iowa (+4.5) are both winnable. The Golden Gophers look a little more vulnerable after their loss in Berkeley this weekend.

The regular season finale at Ford Field against Maryland (+2.5) continues to trend as a near tossup. The Spartans' most likely path to a bowl game involves getting at least two wins in those three contests.

National Overview

Let's take a quick spin around the country and get an update on the action over the weekend. Table 5 below is my updated college football playoff leaderboard following Week Three. 

The teams are listed in order of my projected odds for each team to make the playoffs. I have also included my power ranking, strength of resume, strength of schedule, conference championship odds, and national title odds, all based on the most recent results of my full-season simulation.

Table 5: College Football playoff leaderboard following the action of Week Three.

The SEC had a solid week as the conference teams won all eight non-conferences games and went 6-2 against the spread in the process, including an upset win by Texas A&M at Notre Dame (-6.5). Only Texas and Auburn failed to cover the spread against UTEP and South Alabama, respectively.

In conference play, LSU, Georgia, Ole Miss, and Vanderbilt all got the jump on the competition by securing conference wins over Florida, Tennessee, Arkansas, and South Carolina, respectively. 

My computer is currently hot for both Oklahoma and LSU. The Sooners ascended to the No. 1 position in my power rankings and enjoy a 44% chance to make the SEC Championship Game. No. 2 LSU (34%) is a half step behind.

The other SEC teams at the top of my current conference leaderboard are No. 4 Alabama (31%), No. 12 Georgia (20%), No. 16 Texas (12%), No. 15 Missouri (11%), and No. 17 Vanderbilt (11%).

Vanderbilt was the biggest mover in the SEC this week. The Commodores moved up 20 spots thanks to their upset win over South Carolina. Meanwhile, the Gamecocks slid 35 spots down to No. 60. My calculations now give South Carolina only a 30% chance to make a bowl game.

The Big 12 also had a good week as conference teams won all non-conference games, including an upset win from West Virginia over rivals Pittsburgh. 

So far my computer likes No. 9 Utah (41%) and No. 14 Houston (40%) to make the Big 12 Championship Game. Those two teams both won and covered this weekend over Wyoming and Colorado, respectively. My computer remains lukewarm on No. 22 BYU (22%) and No. 24 TCU (21%).

Notably, No. 40 Iowa State (11.5%) has only the seventh best odds to make the conference title game despite the Cyclone's 4-0 record. Iowa State trails both No. 30 Kansas (17%) and No. 32 Arizona (16%) in conference title game odds.

In the ACC, upsets ran both hot and cold both in and out of conference play. On the positive side, California was able to upset Minnesota. On the negative side, Pittsburgh lost to West Virginia while Old Dominion beat the head coach right out of Virginia Tech. Although technically not an upset, Tulane also beat Duke by a touchdown.

In conference play, Boston College and Clemson were upset at Stanford and at Georgia Tech. One team that survived a potential upset bid was Miami, who corralled the previously hot Bulls of South Florida.

My ACC leaderboard has No. 11 Miami in the poll position with 44% odds to make the conference championship game. No. 18 Florida State (34%) is the most likely other participant with No. 34 N.C. State (23%), No. 39 Georgia Tech (23%), No. 46 California (16%), and No. 42 Louisville (13%) also in the running.

Finally, Table 6 gives an update on the most likely teams from the Group of Five to also qualify for a spot in the playoffs.

Table 6: Group of Five Leaderboard following the action of Week Three.

The table above implies that the eventual champion from the American Athletic Conference AAC will very likely claim a playoff bid in 2025. AAC teams occupy the top five slot on this week's leaderboard and seven of the top nine spots. My current simulation suggests that there is over an 80% chance that an AAC team will make the 12-team field. 

Thanks to a win against Duke, No. 33 Tulane has regained the top position with 17% playoff odds. But the two hottest teams in the AAC are No. 43 North Texas (16%) and No. 27 East Carolina (16%). The Mean Green moved up 17 spots in my power rankings due to a 49-point win over Washington State. The Pirates moved up 34 spots after blanking Coastal Carolina. 

Despite the loss at Miami, No. 37 South Florida (14%) is also expected to contend for the AAC title. No. 47 Memphis (12%) is still in the hunt as well.

Outside of the AAC, No. 41 Louisiana Tech (5.7%) from Conference USA is the most likely spoiler. Other teams to continue to watch include Old Dominion (5.6%) from the Sun Belt, Toledo (1.9%) from the MAC, and my computer's new Mountain West favorite, No. 75 Utah State (1.1%).

Against all odds we have made it to the end for today. I hope that my long list of hot takes didn't leave you cold. I like to keep things warm, but not too warm. I will be back later in the week for another installment of Bad Betting Advice