Against All Odds, 2025 Week Two: Weapons

If I am being completely honest, things were getting a little scary on Saturday night. After a reasonably solid start to the game, late in the first quarter it seemed like the Michigan State pass defense disappeared without a trace. 

The Boston College offense was suddenly scoring touchdowns at will. By the end of the first half, the Spartans trailed 21-14. If Michigan State was going to win the game, the Spartans were going to have to do something that they were unable to do at any point in 2024: outscore an FBS opponent in the second half.

Spartan fans were clearly getting anxious as a smattering of boos rained down for the stands. They had seen this movie before and they were not expecting this kind of scare. Some were hoping for a laugher. Others started grieving the loss of the 2025 season before it had really even started. With the Michigan State schedule going forward, a loss to Boston College could have easily turned the season into a horror movie.

But the Spartans had other plans. The defense stiffened. Michigan State outscored the Eagles in the second half, and then they outscored them again in the second overtime period. When the final credits were rolling, the scoreboard displayed a 42-40 victory for the Green and White. It was truly a thriller full of twists and turns. 

"Everyone on this team is good," Chiles said following the game. "We've got so many weapons that we can use."

On Saturday night, those weapons presented themselves from several points of view and from several surprising members of the cast.

The Spartan offense utilized the expected weapons of choice as Chiles scored once with his legs and wide receiver Nick Marsh found the endzone twice in two very different but equally spectacular plays. 

A few new weapons were on display as well. Tight end Michael Masunas and fullback Jay Coyne both scored their first career touchdowns. In another surprising twist, freshman kicker Martin Connington stepped onto the field with 2:17 remaining in the third quarter to hit his first career field goal from 50 yards.

But Connington wasn't the only weapon on special teams. Punter Ryan Eckley continues to strike fear into opponents. Eckley has punted eight time so far in 2025 and four of those punts were downed inside the two-yard line. Kick returner Alante Brown got into the act as well with 100 total return yards.

The final dagger of the evening on a two-point conversion in double overtime came from another new weapon with a lot of experience. Senior transfer receiver Omari Kelly, who was a bit dull in the first half, was sharp when the Spartans needed him most.

While the win certainly feels good, the overall reviews for the Spartans after two weeks remain a bit mixed. There is still work to be done and several plot twists yet to come in this young season.  

Week Two Betting Results

Now it's time to review the results of last week's Bad Betting Advice, starting with the overview summary shown below in Figure 1. More information about how to read this figure can be found in last week's edition of Against All Odds.

Figure 1: Results of Week Two showing the actual point differentials relative to the opening spread.

A total of seven teams are in the overachiever category in Week Two: Alabama, Nebraska, Oregon, Arkansas, Illinois, Toledo, and Washington State. Two teams underachieved notably, yet still won: LSU and Clemson. Interestingly, those teams squared off against each other in Week One. Now, it is fair to question if both teams might be overrated.

A total of 14 teams took potentially horrifying upset losses in Week Two. Twelve of those teams lost to another FBS team while Eastern Michigan and Massachusetts lost to FCS teams (Long Island and Bryant, respectively). Table 1 below summarizes those 12 FBS upsets and compares them to the picks made last week.

Table 1: Upsets in Week Two based on the opening Vegas lines compared to the upset projections from last week.

The biggest upsets of the weekend were Army's win over Kansas State (-16) and South Florida's win Florida (-18.5). As we all know, in the SEC a loss to an in-state Group of Five team just means more.

Other notable Power Four upsets include Mississippi State over Arizona State (-7), Baylor over SMU (-4), and UNLV over UCLA (-2) all of which my algorithm correctly predicted.

Speaking of my computer, it had another strong week, going 4-2 (67%) which brings the year to-date-performance to 7-4 (64%). ESPN's FPI was 3-3 (50%) for the week, bringing its year-to-date tally to 5-8 (39%).

Table 2 below gives the results of the computers' picks against the opening spread.

Table 2: Results of the highlighted picks against the spread for Week Two.

My algorithm went 4-3 (57%) after making no picks at all in the Week Zero or Week One. My analysis of the FPI data resulted in a 9-4 record for the week (69%) which brings the year-to-date results to 14-9 (61%).

Overall for the week my computer went 26-24 (52%) against the spread (ATS) bringing the year-to-date total to 43-55 (44%). The FPI was slightly worse overall at 24-26 (48%) but for the year is doing better at 49-49 (50%).

Table 3 below gives the results of the point total bets for Week Two.

Table 3: Results of the recommended point total bets ("over/under") for Week Two.

The point total bets are off to a scary bad in 2025. The lock picks did well in Week One, but went just 1-8 (11%) in Week Two. The year-to-date total is down to 5-11 (31%). The complete set of recommended point total bets went 13-23 (36%) and sits at 23-41 (36%) for the year.

I might just need to cover my eyes going forward with these picks.

Updated Big Ten Odds and Expected Wins

Following the results of Week Two, I have re-run the full season Monte Carlo simulation using the updated power rankings, including the current uncertainty in those rankings, to update the season odds for each team. Table 4 below gives the update for the Big Ten conference and Table 5 shows the updated Big Ten win distribution matrix.

Note that all the rankings listed next to each team refer to my computer's power rankings and not any of the national polls.

Table 3: Updated Big Ten rankings, expected wins, strengths of schedule and season odds following Week Two.

Table 4: Updated Big Ten win distribution matrix after Week Two

Big Ten teams went 7-5-1 against the opening spread in games with other FBS teams and four of the five Big Ten teams that faced FCS teams won by a larger margin than predicted by Bill Connelly's SP+ system.

Oregon, Ohio State, and Penn State gave up a combined three points this weekend and as a result the three teams now occupy three of the top four spots in my updated power rankings. They also now are the clear front runners of the conference race. 

Oregon (62%) has the best current odds to make the Big Ten Championship Game, followed by Ohio State (36%), and Penn State (30%).

Indiana and Illinois both had strong weeks with wins over Kennesaw State and Duke. The Hoosiers and Fighting Illini have risen to No. 12 and No. 15 in my power rankings, respectively. Illinois' easier conference schedule gives them a slight edge in odds to make the Big Ten Championship Game relative to Indiana (15% to 13%).

No. 28 USC (8.1%), No. 33 Nebraska (7.4%), No. 34 Washington (5.6%), and No. 27 Wisconsin (4.9%) all overachieved relative to the spread. Those teams round out the current top half of the conference in odds to make the post season.

Three other Big Ten teams had underwhelming starts to the season in Week One and the results in Week Two were equally terrifying for their fans.

No. 50 Iowa won somewhat unimpressively over Albany in Week One and lost a close game to rival Iowa State on Saturday. My model only has the Hawkeye favored in three more games this season and the odds to make a bowl game have dipped under 50%.

No. 44 Michigan failed to cover by 18 points against New Mexico in Week One and lost by double-digits at Oklahoma and a game where they once again won the turnover battle and committed fewer penalties. My model forecasts that the Wolverines may only be favored in four of their remaining games.

And then there is No. 105 UCLA. The Bruins were blown out at home by Utah in Week One and followed that up with a road loss to UNLV of the Mountain West by seven. The next two games versus New Mexico (+9.7, projected) and at Northwestern (-3.8) might be winnable, but UCLA could be a double-digit underdog in the other eight contests.

Remaining Schedule for Michigan State

Michigan State got the desperately needed win over Boston College in overtime and managed to tread water, holding at No. 49 in my most recent power ranking. The Spartans' have just the 13th best odds to make the Big Ten Championship Game at just over 2%.

But having one conference win and two wins total already in hand is an advantage. The Spartans now rank No. 11 in the Big Ten in expected wins at 6.66 which puts the odds that Michigan State qualifies for a bowl game at 71.5%. However, as we will see, the Spartans may only be favored in three more games for the remainder of the season.

Figure 2 below gives my computer's updated projections for the point spreads and victory odds for the Spartans' remaining 10 games. As a reference, the projected odds from my preseason calculations are shown in Figure 2 as a reference.

Figure 2: Updated odds and spread projections for Michigan State's remaining games, following Week Two and based on a 50,000 cycle Monte Carlo simulation. The odds calculated last week are shown as a reference.

The Spartans should have no trouble getting to 3-0 with FCS opponent Youngstown State coming to town next week, but after that the schedule looks pretty frightening.

Michigan State now projects as a double-digit favorite over UCLA (+15) and the games against Michigan (+0.5) and Maryland (-0.5) at Ford Field both look like toss ups. If the Spartans can win all three of those games, a bowl bid would be assured.

The remaining six games on the schedule, five of which are on the road and the other of which is against No. 4 Penn State (-11) all look challenging. USC (-9.0), Nebraska (-6.5), Indiana (-12), and Minnesota (-6.0) all had strong performances in Week Two. As a result the Spartans project to be between a one- and two-touchdown underdog in all four games.

However the final true road game of the season at Iowa (-3.0) is moving closer to the toss-up category. Michigan State has the apparent advantage of facing the three Big Ten teams mentioned above (Iowa, Michigan and UCLA) that have underachieved the most so far in 2025. 

From this point of view, the most likely path for the Spartans to make a bowl game is to win two of the three games against Michigan, at Iowa, and versus Maryland. This assumes Michigan State gets the wins over Youngstown State and UCLA.

National Overview

Let's take a quick spin around the country and get an update on the action over the weekend. Table 5 below is my updated college football playoff leaderboard following Week Two. 

The teams are listed in order of my projected odds for each team to make the playoffs. I have also included my power ranking, strength of resume, strength of schedule, conference championship odds, and national title odds, all based on the most recent results of my full-season simulation.

Table 5: College Football playoff leaderboard following the action of Week Two.

It is still very early in the season, so we should not read too much into these calculations. But, this is what the data is currently telling us about the current college football landscape after two weeks.

The SEC places four teams in the top seven of my current leaderboard, but the options are a bit surprising. LSU (72%) is currently ranked No. 2 in my current power rankings while Alabama (47%) is ranked No. 5, despite the Week One loss at Florida State. No. 6 Oklahoma (51%) and No. 9 Ole Miss (46%) also appear in the top seven. My SEC conference leaderboard shows a similar trend.

It was a strong week in general for the SEC. The conference members all won and covered the opening spread in four games against other Power Four opponents. Oklahoma humbled Michigan, Missouri mauled Kansas, Vanderbilt sunk Virginia Tech, and Mississippi State upset Arizona State.

The only blemish for the SEC was Florida's loss to South Florida. Regardless, my power rankings have nine SEC teams in the top 20. There are a lot of good teams which all have great shots to win the conference and make the playoffs. The conference race will start to come into focus in the coming weeks.

The Big 12 struggled this week as potential conference contenders Arizona State and Kansas State were upset by Mississippi State and Army, respectively. To make matters worse, Kansas was soundly defeated by Missouri, Oklahoma State got destroyed at Oregon, and West Virginia was upset at Ohio. 

It wasn't all bad news, however, as Baylor got the upset win over SMU and Iowa State took down in-state rival Iowa.

As Table 5 above shows, my computer has been the most impressed with the play of No. 7 TCU (50% playoff odds) and (surprisingly) No. 8 Houston (36%). No. 18 Utah (24%), and No. 21 BYU (21%) round out the top four in the conference. Time will tell if my computer's faith in these teams in justified.

ACC teams had five matchups with other Power Four opponents this week and went 0-5 including two upset loses by SMU and Virginia Tech. Clemson struggled mightily to beat Troy and Louisville needed two fourth quarter touchdowns to pull away from James Madison.

Right now Florida State (No. 14) is the only ACC team in my top 20, but No. 26 Miami also has solid odds to contend for the conference title and to make the playoffs (21%).

Finally, Table 6 gives an update on the most likely teams from the Group of Five to also qualify for a spot in the playoffs.

Table 6: Group of Five Leaderboard following the action of Week Two.

The big winner in Group of Five this week was South Florida. The Bulls' take down of the Florida Gators vaulted them to No. 11 in my power rankings and a commanding lead in Group of Five playoff leaderboard with a 39% chance to make the playoffs.

The other three spots in the top four all also occupied by members of the American Athletic conference. Tulane (18%), Memphis (10%), and North Texas (6%) all won on Saturday, but Memphis was the only team in the group to cover the spread.

A few other Group of Five teams had good weekends including Army, Ohio, and UNLV with upset wins at Kansas State, versus West Virginia, and versus UCLA respectively. 

But a handful of other Group of Five teams did not fair as well and most likely played themselves out of potential playoff consideration. Liberty and Texas San Antonio were upset by Jacksonville State and Texas State while San Diego State was blown out by Washington State.

Based on the data in Table 6, I will continue to keep an eye on teams such as Wyoming, Old Dominion, Louisiana Tech, Toledo, and Ohio over the next few weeks.

Against all odds and after a few plot twists, we have made it to the end for today. I hope that it wasn't too scary. I will be back later in the week for another installment of Bad Betting Advice.