Week Five of the college football season represents approximately the one-third point of the 2025 season. For the Michigan State Spartans, Week Five is the first of two bye weeks. That means that it is time to hit the pause button. It gives the banged-up Spartans a chance to recover from jet lag, rest and relax.
For the Michigan State coaching staff, it is a chance to stop, reflect, and analyze on the play of the Spartans so far this year. They will likely spend some time hitting rewind on game film in an effort to understand what has gone well and what needs to be fixed.
If we mentally fast forward to next weekend's game at Nebraska, hopefully the week of rest and reflection will result in improved play that will translate into more wins and a record that will make Spartan fans proud.
In the meantime, even though the Spartans are on pause, there is still plenty of other action to talk about, stats to analyze, and predictions to record. Data never takes the week off.
Big Ten Overview
Table 1 below gives a full summary of the action in the Big Ten in Week Five, including my projected scores, the opening point spread, and the computers' projected point differentials.
 |
| Table 1: Summary of Big Ten action in Week Five, including my algorithms' projected scores. The teams shaded in green are projected to cover by my algorithm. The teams shaded red are projected to cover by the FPI. |
A total of six Big Ten teams have a bye week, including both Michigan and Michigan State. The remaining 12 teams will square off in six conference games, all of which have point spreads that opened under 10 points.
Two of the games feature teams that are trending towards finishing near the bottom of the conference. UCLA visits Northwestern (-6) in a game that could decide which team finishes dead last in the Big Ten standing. Rutgers will also have a say in this matter, especially if the Scarlet Knights lose, as expected, at Minnesota (-6).
USC is off to strong start at 4-0, but the Trojans will face their toughest test to date in the form of a visit to Illinois (+5.5). A win would signal that the Trojans might be able to challenge for the Big Ten title. Meanwhile, the Fighting Illini are simply trying to get off the mat following their 53-point loss at Indiana last week. My computer is picking Illinois to get the upset win.
Ohio State is fresh off of a bye and now must make the trip out west to face Washington (+9). The Huskies are undefeated and my computer has them ranked No. 24 in the country. While the Buckeyes are still likely to get the win, both computer have the home team covering the spread.
The Indiana Hoosier made a strong statement last week against Illinois and my computer is now convinced that they are the Big Ten's best team. This prediction gives me pause, but a win at Iowa (+7.5) in their first road game of the season would keep them in that conversation. The computers have Indiana covering, possibly easily.
The biggest game on the Big Ten schedule is Oregon at Penn State (-3). This game was flagged in the preseason as one of the potentially highest impact conference game of the season. So far neither team has been seriously tested and the winner will be in a strong position to claim a spot in the Big Ten Championship Game.
The game is clearly more important to Penn State, as the Nittany Lions are at home and still have a road game at Ohio State on the schedule. Both Penn State and Oregon also host Indiana later in the year. Both computers like Oregon to cover but to lose in a close game.
Other Notable National Action
Table 2 below summarizes the notable action in the rest of the college football landscape in Week Five.
 | |
|
The race in the SEC continues to be wide open, but four of the teams in the top five of my SEC leaderboard are squaring off this weekend.
The marquee matchup is Alabama at Georgia (-3.5), but LSU at Ole Miss (-2.5) could be just as important. The winning teams will earn a bit of separation in the conference race.
Auburn at Texas A&M (-7.5) has the feel of an early conference elimination game, while Tennessee will try to avoid an upset at Mississippi State (+9.5). My computer is picking the Bulldogs to do just that.
Arkansas will also have a chance to effectively eliminate Notre Dame (-6) from playoff contention if the Razorbacks can upset the Fighting Irish at home.
In Big 12 action, three of the teams in my current top four are projected favorites while the fourth team, Texas Tech, is also on pause. Houston sits at the top of my leaderboard and the Cougars play their final nonconference game of the season at Oregon State (+11.5). My computer is expecting a 26-point blowout.
BYU is favored on the road at Colorado (+5.5) and Kansas is favored at home over Cincinnati (+6.5). An upset loss by any other those teams would shuffle the teams at the top of my leaderboard.
The most interesting Big 12 game this week is Arizona at Iowa State (-7). I currently have both teams just outside of the lead pack in the conference race. The loser will likely have difficulty staying in the race. The computers both like Arizona to cover but not to get the upset win.
In the ACC, Miami is the current favorite, and the Hurricanes have the week off. This makes the most interesting ACC matchup Florida State at Virginia (-6.5). The Seminoles are the clear No. 2 team on my current ACC leaderboard. However, Virginia is in the top five, making the Cavilers a borderline conference contender. The computers are both picking Virginia to cover.
I will also have my eye on Georgia Tech at Wake Forest (+14) and Louisville at Pittsburgh (+3). The Yellow Jackets and Cardinals are also potential conference contenders and both have tricky road challenges.
In the Group of Five, the American Athletic Conference is the conference to watch and North Texas is the team with the current best odds to reach the playoffs. The Mean Green host South Alabama (+10.5) from the Sun Belt and my computer expects a blow out.
Other AAC teams to keep an eye on include Memphis (-13.5), which travels to Florida Atlantic, East Carolina (-3.5), which hosts Army, and Tulane (-13.5) which hosts Tulsa. Each of those teams will need to avoid a bad loss that could knock them out of conference and playoff contention. Conference contender South Florida has a bye.
Old Dominion is my current favorite to win the Sun Belt conference. This week the Monarchs host Liberty (+14) in a game the computers also project to be not as close as Vegas anticipates.
Louisiana Tech is similarly my favorite to win Conference USA. The Bulldogs have a potentially stiffer challenge on the road at UTEP (+2.5). That said, my computer likes Tech by two touchdowns.
Picks of the Week
The sections above highlighted several potential upsets and recommended picks against the spread. Figure 1 below gives an overview summary of all my computer's projections for the week in comparison to the opening Vegas spread. The same data generated by EPSN's Football Power Index is shown in Figure 2.
 |
| Figure 1: Comparison of the projected final margins of victory based on my algorithm to the opening Vegas lines for Week Five. |
 |
| Figure 2: Comparison of the projected final margins of victory based on ESPN's FPI to the opening Vegas lines for Week Five. |
A brief explanation of how to read these figures can be found in Week One's Bad Betting Advice column. This week's upset picks (the games appearing to the left of the vertical red lines in both figures) are summarized below in Table 3
 |
| Table 3: Summary of upset picks for Week Five. |
My computer suggests a total of six upset picks in Week Five including Mississippi State over Tennessee (-9.5), Illinois over USC (-5.5), and Alabama over Georgia (-3.5). The FPI agrees with my computer's pick of Syracuse over Duke (-4.5) and add five other picks including TCU over Arizona State (-3).
A simple simulation of the week's games suggests that a total of 14.6 plus-or-minus 3.2 upsets out of 51 games is most likely. This is the largest number of upsets predicted yet this season, so it could be a wild weekend.
The games shown above in Figures 1 and 2 which fall outside of either set of dashed diagonal lines make up the set of suggested bets against the spread. Those selections are summarized below in Table 4
 |
| Table 4: Picks against the opening spread for Week Five. The picks are listed in order of confidence score. |
Combined the computers recommend six total bets against the spread this week.
My computer suggests bets on North Texas (-10.5) to cover against South Alabama, Houston (-11.5) to cover against Oregon State, and Mississippi State (+9.5) to cover against Tennessee. The FPI likes Syracuse (+4.5) to cover against Duke and Oklahoma State (19.5) to cover against Baylor.
Finally, Table 5 below summarizes my computer's recommended point total bets for the week.
 |
| Table 5: Recommended total points bets (over/under) for Week Five. Note the picks labeled as "locks" are at a higher level of confidence. |
My computer has 16 total recommended point-total bets, two of which qualify as locks. Year to date, my computer remains significantly below .500, but the results were very strong last week, getting over 75% of the predictions correct.
A few notable recommendations from Table 5 including taking the "over" on 48.5 total points in the Indiana at Iowa game, the "over" on 52.5 points in the Ohio State at Washington game, and the "over" on 52.5 points in the Auburn at Texas A&M game.
That is all the advice I have for you this week. Hopefully a week without Spartan football will give fans a chance to pause, stop, and enjoy the fall weather. Enjoy the games and check back early next week in Against All Odds to rewind and see how the picks above panned out.
Before mentally fast forwarding to next weekend, take some time to stop, unwind, and reflect on the first third of the season. The Spartans might be on pause this weekend, but data never sleeps, and betting recommendations must be recorded.
Comments
Post a Comment