After three straight game in the friendly confines of Spartan Stadium, Michigan State is off this week for the first road game and first conference game of the season. The Spartans will be traveling across the USA to sunny Los Angeles to face the USC Trojans. But the bigger opponent on this trip might be time itself.
It takes a long time just to get to Southern California. A direct flight from Michigan takes over four hours. That's enough time to fit in a B movie, a cult classic, and maybe a few comedy skits on the infight entertainment system. It is also a long time for an athlete to be couped up in a small space.
Once the team gets there and gets settled in L.A., the game itself does not kick off until 8 p.m. local time. That's 11 p.m. back home. That a lot of time to kill. By the time the team finishes with the game, gets cleaned up, and returns to the hotel, it will likely be close to 5 a.m. according to their body clocks.
I am not as young as I used to be, but just thinking about that schedule is exhausting. I probably haven't stayed up all night since the late 1990s when I was a college student. This weekend I am going to have a hard time just staying awake to watch the game on television from my couch.
I know that college kids are used to staying up late. I understand that Coach Smith and his staff have strategies in place to mitigate the impact of jet lag. I have even tried using analytics to measure the effect of cross country travel in sports. I have yet to uncover a clear impact.
But, despite these facts, I still do not like the intangibles of the travel and timing when it comes to the Spartans' chances on Saturday night. Combine this with the tiring amount of time the Michigan State medical staff spent last weekend helping players off the field and we are literally adding insult to injury.
But the one potential saving grace for the Spartans is that the Trojans have a strong recent history of underachievement. Since head coach Pete Carroll left for the NFL under the cover of darkness in 2009, USC has started the season ranked in the top 15 ten times. The Trojans finished the season with a higher ranking than they started with only once in that span. They finished the season unranked six times.
Following the action of Week Three, USC debuted in the AP poll at No. 25. This could single some of that classic Trojan over confidence that made the ancient Greeks so mad. By some measure, the Trojans were a bit underwhelming in last week's win at Purdue.
USC failed to cover in West Lafayette, racked up 100 yards in penalties, and had one fewer first down than the Boilermakers despite a +3 advantage in turnovers.
In historically accurate fashion, the might be the perfect time for a classic Spartan sneak attack against the men of Troy.
Michigan State Prediction
Saturday will mark the first matchup between Michigan State (3-0) and USC (3-0) as conference foes. The all-time series is tied 4-4, and the Spartans are currently on a three-game winning streak.
Most recently, Michigan State defeated the Trojans in the 1990 Sun Bowl. Three seasons prior, the Spartans beat USC twice, once in East Lansing and then again in the Rose Bowl following the 1987 season.
The teams met five times in the regular between 1963 and 1978, with Michigan State only winning the home game in 1964. The Spartans are 0-3 all time in visits to the Colosseum in Los Angeles.
This year's contest open with the Trojans favored by 16 points. At the time of press, that line has increased to 18.5 points. Based on these line, the Spartans only have about a 13% chance of winning straight up.
Despite these long odds, an upset win by the Spartans would be far from unprecedented. Upsets of this magnitude happen about once a week in a typical college football season. So far this year I have charted four total upsets where the opening spread was at least 14 points including last week's upset of UCLA by New Mexico (+14), and the Week Two upset of Florida by South Florida (+18.5).
I have tracked 15 total games since 2001 where Michigan State has been at least 14-point underdogs on the road. Michigan State was an upset winner in three of those 15 games including the most recent example in 2022 at Illinois (-14.5).
That said, my computer is not very optimistic about the Spartans' chances out west this weekend. Without even factoring in the late start time or the recent injuries, my computer predicts a final score of: USC 44, Michigan State 21.
Big Ten Overview
Table 1 below gives a full summary of the action in the Big Ten in Week Four, including my projected scores, the opening point spread, and the computers' projected point differentials.
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Table 1: Summary of Big Ten action in Week Four, including my algorithms' projected scores. The teams shaded in green are projected to cover by my algorithm. The teams shaded red are projected to cover by the FPI.
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There are only eight total games involving Big Ten teams. Five Big Ten teams (Minnesota, Northwestern, Ohio State, Penn State, and UCLA) have byes in Week Four.
Oregon and Washington are both big favorites against former in-state Pac-12 rivals Oregon State (+37) and Washington State (+19.5). Purdue is a big underdog to in-state rival Notre Dame (-26.5).
The remaining five contests, including Michigan State's nocturnal clash with USC, are all conference games. Those other four games all have opening spreads that are a touchdown or less.
Maryland at Wisconsin (-7) and Iowa at Rutgers (+2) are both expected to be competitive. However, neither contest is likely to impact the broader Big Ten race. Those games are essentially B-movie appetizers for the two major events on the schedule.
Michigan travels to Nebraska (+1) will be an early conference vibe check for both programs. I don't currently expect either team to seriously challenge for the Big Ten title, but the winner of this game will remain as a potential dark horse contender. Both the Wolverines (No. 14) and the Cornhuskers (No. 18) have the advantage of relatively easy conference schedules.
My computer is picking Michigan to win and cover but ESPN's FPI like Nebraska in the mild upset.
The game with top billing this weekend is Illinois at Indiana (-5). My latest power ranking has both teams in the top 10. The winner of this game, especially if it is the Fighting Illini, will stay on the lead lap of the Big Ten race and will put themselves in a strong position to potentially grad a fourth spot in the College Football Playoff.
Other Notable National Action
Table 2 below summarizes the notable action in the rest of the college football scene in Week Four.
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Table 2: Summary of other notable action in Week Four including my algorithms' projected scores.
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That national slate is making me a little drowsy this week.
Several potential SEC contenders are either taking the week off (Alabama, Georgia, and Texas A&M) or are playing in games that are projected to be 30-plus-point yawners (LSU, Tennessee, Texas, and Vanderbilt).
I will have my eye on the Oklahoma Sooners' performance versus Auburn (+6.5). My computer elevated the Sooners to No. 1 in my power rankings after last week's blowout over Temple. If Oklahoma covers easily, my machine might be on to something.
South Carolina at Missouri (-10.5) is also worth a look. The Gamecocks were supposed to be a potential conference contender, but so far Missouri is off to a better looking start.
The Big 12 race appears to be wide open and I am hoping that this week's slate of action will begin to bring clarity. The highlight is Texas Tech at Utah (-4.5). These teams appear closely matchup based on the national polls, but my computer likes the Utes in a blowout.
Kansas is currently a fringe Big 12 contender, according to my computer. The Jayhawks are a slight underdog at home versus West Virginia (-2.5) but my computers projects a Kansas upset win.
TCU opened the season with a big upset win at North Carolina. This weekend the Horned Frogs will attempt to claim another ACC victim as they host SMU (+6.5). My computer likes TCU is a blowout.
So far the ACC race is looking like a collision course between Miami and Florida State. The Seminoles are very unlikely to be challenged by Kent State (+43.5), but Florida travels down to Miami (-8.5) what should be another entertaining in-state rumble.
My computer also says not to sleep on the North Carolina State Wolfpack. They are currently tied for third place with Georgia Tech on my ACC leaderboard. If N.C. State can get a road upset at Duke (-3) they will remain solidly in the conference race.
The remaining eight games highlighted in Table 2 involve some of the primary contenders for the Group of Five playoff slot.
South Florida and Utah State should both get easy wins over FCS opponents South Carolina State and McNeese State. My computer's top MAC team, Toledo, is a healthy double-digit favorite favorite at Western Michigan (-12).
My projected Conference USA leader, Louisiana Tech, is also a slight favorite versus Southern Miss (+1.5). My computer expects close to a 20-point win.
The other four games involve teams from the American Athletic Conference (AAC) which are underdogs with shots to notch important wins on their resume.
North Texas is a 2.5-point underdog in a conference game at Army. In contrast, my algorithm has the Mean Green by a touchdown. My computer gives the best odds to win the AAC to East Carolina. This week the Pirates host BYU (-7.5) and have a great chance to make a statement against a solid Big 12 team.
Memphis hosts Arkansas (-6) with a similar chance to make some noise. The AAC team that could make the largest wave is Tulane. They are a sizable underdog at Mississippi (-12.5), but an upset would not be out of the question.
Picks of the Week
The sections above highlighted several potential upsets and recommended picks against the spread. Figure 1 below gives an overview summary of all my computer's projections for the week in comparison to the opening Vegas spread. The same data generated by EPSN's Football Power Index is shown in Figure 2.
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| Figure 1: Comparison of the projected final margins of victory based on my algorithm to the opening Vegas lines for Week Four. |
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| Figure 2: Comparison of the projected final margins of victory based on ESPN's FPI to the opening Vegas lines for Week Four. |
A brief explanation of how to read these figures can be found in Week One's Bad Betting Advice column. This week's upset picks (the games appearing to the left of the vertical red lines in both figures) are summarized below in Table 3
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Table 3: Summary of upset picks for Week Four.
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My computer suggests a total of six upset bets this week including Air Force over Boise State (-8.5), Memphis over Arkansas (-6), N.C. State over Duke (-3), and North Texas over Army (-2.5).
The FPI agrees with the North Texas pick and also is projecting wins for Baylor and Rutgers over Arizona State (-2.5) and Iowa (-2), respectively.
A simple simulation of the week's games suggests that a total of 12.1 plus-or-minus 2.9 upsets out of 50 games is most likely. That said, the total number of upsets so far in 2025 (36), is more than seven games over expectation (28.5).
The games shown above in Figures 1 and 2 which fall outside of either set of dashed diagonal lines make up the set of suggested bets against the spread. Those selections are summarized below in Table 4
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Table 4: Picks against the opening spread for Week Four. The picks are listed in order of confidence score.
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My algorithm is offering six picks including Bowling Green (+26) to cover versus Louisville, Kansas (+2.5) to cover versus West Virginia, and Utah (-4.5) to cover versus Texas Tech.
The FPI adds USC (-16) and Syracuse (+20) to cover versus Michigan State and Clemson, respectively.
Finally, Table 5 below summarizes my computer's recommended point total bets for the week.
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Table 5: Recommended total points bets (over/under) for Week Four. Note the picks labeled as "locks" are at a higher level of confidence.
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This week my algorithm suggests a total of 14 point-total bets, only one of which meet the criteria to be considered a lock. However, that bet is for Iowa and Rutgers to combine for over 45.5 points, which I find suspicious.
The other notable bet on Table 5 is for Michigan State and USC to combine for over 56.5. Considering the likelihood for the Spartan defense to fall asleep, this seems like a good bet.
That is all the advice I have for you this week. I hope that my analysis kept you awake. Enjoy the games and check back early next week in Against All Odds to see how the picks above panned out.
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