Against All Odds, 2025 Week Nine: Inches

Former Michigan State coach Mark Dantonio used to say that football is a game of inches. On the occasion that Dantonio's teams did come short, he would often site a handful of plays or decisions that ultimately sealed him team's fate. This may have been a missed tackle, a failed fourth down conversion, or a poorly timed penalty.

On Saturday, if Michigan State were to have a chance to upset the Michigan Wolverines, it was clear that the Spartans were going to need to find those inches. They were going to need to avoid mistakes and make the plays that mattered when they mattered.

But just minutes into the game, it was clear that the Spartans were not going to find those inches. Play after play after play, Michigan State kept rolling snake eyes, starting with a fumble by Chiles that was inches from going out of bounds (or not) before being recovered by the Wolverines.

As the game went on, there were catches that were just out of bounds (or not), spots that were inches short (or not), and Malcolm Bell was offsides by an inch (or not). Throughout the game there were penalties, both called or uncalled, that could have gone either way. The majority of those seemed to magically go against the Spartans as well.

The most disappointing part of the loss to the Wolverines is that despite the Spartans poor play, there were opportunities to get back into the game well into the fourth quarter. Despite what the crew in Ann Arbor wants to believe, the two teams are not miles apart. This is a game that Michigan State could have won, if they just could have found a few more inches.

Sometimes, it just isn't your night. The problem is that it hasn't been the Spartans' night all season, or frankly most of last season... or the two seasons before that. With every double-digit loss, hope fades in the fanbase and Michigan State inches closer and closer to irrelevancy.

In my opinion luck, both good and bad, plays a larger role in sports than many believe. I think that Michigan State has been very unlucky throughout the Jonathan Smith era. But at some point good teams need to make their own luck. 

As 19th century French science Louis Pasteur almost said, "chance favors the prepared football team." Maybe a consistent lack of luck is just an excuse for a lack of preparation. 

That seems unlikely based on the strong resume that Jonathan Smith brought with him from the west coast. He is a well-respected coach who made lowly Oregon State into a conference contender that could go toe-to-toe with their in-state rival.

There is no reason why that success should not translate in East Lansing. But it feels like time is starting to run. One cannot wait forever for luck to turn around.

Week Nine Betting Results

Let's now take a look at the performance of last week's picks from my Bad Betting Advice article, starting with the overview summary shown below in Figure 1. More information about how to read this figure can be found in the Week One edition of Against All Odds.

Figure 1: Results of Week Nine showing the actual point differentials relative to the opening spread.

A total of 11 teams overachieved by beating the spread by more than 14 points. This list includes Indiana, Utah, Iowa, Texas A&M, San Diego State, and Cincinnati. The only team to fail to cover the spread by 14 points, yet win, was Oregon.

A total of 11 teams were upset in Week Nine, which is just over one standard deviation below the expected value of 14.5. Table 1 below summarizes those upsets and compares them to the picks made last week.

Table 1: Upsets in Week Nine based on the opening Vegas line compared to the upset projections from last week.

The biggest upsets of the week were all in the Group of Five. Specifically, Rice upset UConn (-10.5), Akron upset Buffalo (-10.5), and Kent State upset Bowling Green (-9.5). Other notable upsets include Houston over Arizona State (-7.5), Ole Miss over Oklahoma (-4), Memphis over South Florida (-3.5), and BYU over Iowa State (-2).

My algorithm went 4-5 (44%) which brings the year to-date-performance to 30-40 (43%). ESPN's FPI went 1-1 (50%) bringing the year-to-date performance up to 17-26 (39.5%), which is still a few feet below expectations.

Table 2 below gives the results of the computers' picks against the opening spread.

Table 2: Results of the highlighted picks against the spread for Week Nine.

My algorithm went just 2-3 (40%) on the recommended bets, bringing the year-to-date performance to 27-25 (52%). My analysis of the FPI data resulted no recommended picks against the spread leaving the year-to-date tally at 20-15 (57%).

Considering all 53 games this weekend, my computer went 32-21 (60%) against the opening spread, bringing the year-to-date total to 231-233 (49.8%). The FPI was several yards behind, going 23-30 (43%) against the spread. This brings the year-to-date performance down to 218-246 (47%).

Table 3 below gives the results of the point total bets for Week Nine.

Table 3: Results of the recommended point total bets ("over/under") for Week Nine.

The point total bets had a great week on small volume. The lock picks went 2-0 (100%) which brings the year-to-date performance to 17-18 (49%). The full set of recommended bets went 3-1 (75%) this weekend, bringing the overall performance for the year to 70-76 (48%). 

Overall this performance isn't great, but it is inched back towards .500.

Updated Big Ten Odds and Expected Wins

Following the results of Week Nine, I have re-run the full season Monte Carlo simulation using the updated power rankings, including the current uncertainty in those rankings, to update the season odds for each team. 

Table 4 below gives the update for the Big Ten conference and Table 5 shows the updated Big Ten win distribution matrix.

Note that all the rankings listed in the table and mentioned below refer to my computer's power rankings and not any of the national polls.

Table 4: Updated Big Ten rankings, expected wins, strengths of schedule and season odds following Week Nine.

Table 5: Updated Big Ten win distribution matrix after Week Nine.

There were no upsets during a week with limited compelling action in the Big Ten, so the overall conference race is essentially unchanged. No. 2 Indiana covered easily versus No. 72 UCLA and the Hoosiers continue to have the best odds to reach the Big Ten Championship Game (91%) with idle No. 1 Ohio State (80%) as their most likely opponent.

No. 4 Oregon (15%) failed to cover against No. 83 Wisconsin, but the Ducks remaining the next most likely team to find their way to Indianapolis.

No. 17 Michigan (5.7%) is a distant fourth on my Big Ten leaderboard with No. Iowa (4.5%), and No. 15 USC (3.5%) just inches behind. The Hawkeyes blew out No. 74 Minnesota in Iowa City while USC was idle.

I was confident that No. 20 Illinois was going to get an upset win in Seattle over No. 24 Washington, but the Huskies were able to protect their home field. Now both teams appear headed for a finish in the upper half of the Big Ten and a solid bowl game.

Washington also joins Michigan, Iowa, and USC as four Big Ten teams with outside shots (12% to 17%) to make the College Football Playoffs.

No. 50 Nebraska was able to hold off No. 48 Northwestern at home to secure a sixth win and bowl eligibility. The Wildcats will likely be the underdog in three of their remaining four contents, but my computers gives them an 86% to reach the post season.

In bottom-of-the-barrel action, No. 73 Rutgers came from behind to beat No. 76 Purdue. That win may very likely be the only one either team earns in conference play.

Remaining Schedule for Michigan State

For the third time in last five games, the Spartans had a late score to (barely) cover the spread. As a result, the statistical outlook for Michigan State only moved an inch or two.

Michigan State actually rose slightly in my computer's power rankings to No. 70, but the expected win total drooped slightly to just 4.18 wins. The odds for Michigan State just to reach the six win threshold needed to qualify for a bowl game inched down to 10%. 

Figure 2 below gives my computer's updated projections for the point spreads and victory odds for the Spartans' remaining four games. As a reference, the projected odds from my preseason calculations are also shown in Figure 2 along with the values from last week.

Figure 2: Updated odds and spread projections for Michigan State's remaining games, following Week Eight and based on a 80,000 cycle Monte Carlo simulation. The odds calculated last week are shown as a reference.

On paper, next week's game at Minnesota (+2.5) is the most likely chance for the Spartans to win another game this year. The line as of Monday is Minnesota +3, so once again my simulation was almost dean on. The season finale at Ford Field against Maryland (+4.0) is expected to be only slightly more difficult.

Penn State (+10.5) is still projected as a double-digit favorite in East Lansing in a few weeks and the game at Iowa (+17.5) is looking more and more difficult after the Hawkeyes demolished the Golden Gophers this weekend.

Overall my calculations say that there is only a 28% chance that the Spartans go winless for the rest of the season. A 4-8 record has 37% odds and a 5-7 record has 24% odds.

National Overview

Let's take a quick spin around the country and get an update on the other action over the weekend. Table 5 below is my updated college football playoff leaderboard following Week Nine. 

The teams are listed in order of my projected odds for each team to make the playoffs. I have also included my power ranking, strength of resume, strength of schedule, conference championship odds, and national title odds, all based on the most recent results of my full-season simulation.

Table 5: College Football playoff leaderboard following the action of Week Nine.

In SEC action, No. 9 Texas A&M saw the most movement on my leaderboard as the Aggies beat head coach Brian Kelly right out of the No. 16 LSU Tigers. I now have Texas A&M (57% odds to reach the conference title game) just a few percentage points behind No. 13 Alabama (64%), which survived a road test at No. 62 South Carolina.

My current calculations have four other SEC teams with between a 15% and 30% chance to sneak into the conference title game.

No. 10 Georgia (29%) was idle this week. The Bulldogs remain ahead of No. 11 Ole Miss (22%) even after the Rebels' road upset win at No. 7 Oklahoma (2%). 

No. 14 Texas (15%) is hanging on to fifth place following an win at No. 44 Mississippi State. No. 21 Vanderbilt (9.5%) rounds out the top six following the win versus No. 28 Missouri. 

In Big 12 action, No. 12 BYU (73%) has reclaimed the top spot on my conference leaderboard following an upset win at No. 23 Iowa State. No. 6 Texas Tech (64%) is just a few inches back after blowing out and shutting out No. 119 Oklahoma State.

Three other Big 12 teams are a few feet behind the lead pack following wins this weekend. No. 25 Houston (22%) is in third place after at upset win at No. 57 Arizona State (1.1%). No. 38 Cincinnati (21%) and No. 5 Utah (15%) round out the top five after home wins against No. 66 Baylor and No. 54 Colorado, respectively.

There were no major surprises in ACC action, so the conference leaderboard is largely unchanged. No. 35 Georgia Tech (59%) moved to 8-0 thanks to a home win against No. 92 Syracuse. No. 8 Miami (38%) and No. 39 Virginia (35%) remain the next most likely participants in the ACC Championship Game after earning wins over No. 94 Stanford and at No. 90 North Carolina, respectively.

No. 36 Louisville (27%) is a few feet back of the lead pack after a win versus No. 114 Boston College. No. 40 Duke (19%) was idle and No. 32 Pittsburgh (14%) rounds out the top six after a win over No. 58 North Carolina State.

Finally, Table 6 gives an update on the teams from the Group of Five which are hot in pursuit for a automatic spot in the college football playoff.

Table 6: Group of Five Leaderboard following the action of Week Nine.

The race for the Group of Five playoff spot continues to align with the race for the American Athletic Conference Title. No. 30 Tulane (26% playoff odds) was idle this week, but continues to hold the best odds.

No. 45 Memphis (6%) scored an upset win at home against No. 29 South Florida (18%). But the Tigers' tough remaining schedule (featuring games against Tulane, Navy, and at East Carolina) leaves their odds down in fifth place.

AAC compatriot No. 26 North Texas (16%) is current in fourth place after a win over No. 133 and No. 27 East Carolina (5%) remain in the top six following a bye week. 

Note that undefeated No. 78 Navy (1.4%) is expected to be a double-digit underdog in the next four games and is therefore not expected to finish in the upper echelon of the AAC or in contention for a playoff spot.

No. 19 San Diego State (17%) from the Mountain West has crept up to third place after a blowout win over No. 118 Fresno State.

No. 53 James Madison (4.9%) from the Sun Belt still has an outside shot at playoff glory as well, but the Duke were also on a bye.

Against all odds we have made it to the end for today. I will be back later in the week for another installment of Bad Betting Advice where we will learn in my predictions were off by inches, feet, or miles.