Against All Odds, 2025 Week Six: 99 Luftballons

I learned something new this weekend about Big Ten traditions.

Fans of the University of Nebraska historically release a series of red balloons after the first touchdown is scored at a home football game. My internet research tells me that this tradition started in the 1960s and was suspended in 2022 due to concerns over the environmental impact and global helium shortages. 

The tradition was partially brough back in 2024 for special occasions such as this weekend's homecoming game against Michigan State. A release of said red balloons was visible on the television broadcast following the score in the first quarter of the Cornhuskers' 38-27 win over the Michigan State Spartans.

Because I grew up in the 1980s, the sight of a large number of red balloons immediately made me think of this:

A little bit more internet research reminded me that the ballad "99 Luftballons" by the West German band Nena is actually a cautionary tale about the dangers of overreaction. 

The lyrics tell the story of a pair children who set free a bag of balloons at the break of dawn into the summer sky. The military sees the balloons and mistakes them for some sort of foreign attack. In classic cold war era style, four verses later it's World War III.

In the aftermath of the Spartans' loss, some fans seemed to go nuclear as well. There were rumblings from some corners of the fanbase about whether Jonathan Smith should be fired. Some suggested that this team is worse than last year's 5-7 team. Fans were seeing red and melting down. 

While the loss was certainly frustrating, I still saw signs of progress in Lincoln this weekend. I am hear to tell you that the situation is not nearly as bad as some think. 

Michigan State is currently 3-2 and ranked No. 55 in my latest power ranking. If I look back my preseason analysis, the Spartans were ranked No. 58. The expected number of wins after three games was 2.88. 

In the preseason, I predicted that the Spartans would be a 14-point underdog at USC and a 12.5-point underdog at Nebraska. Michigan State lost those two games by 14 and 11 points respectively. The Spartans actually beat both actual spreads by a few points. The Michigan State season is essentially proceeded exactly the way we thought that it might.

As for the game itself, Michigan State showed some spark on defense. For the first time in a while, the Spartans generated a pass rush and were able to disrupt the Cornhusker offense. The Spartans were the better team for large sections of that game.

Obviously, those bright spots were overshadowed by several other issues. Michigan State gave away at least 10 points on special teams gaffes. The Spartans struggled to run the ball, and Aidan Chiles was clearly not himself, especially later in the game. It is hard to win games with this list of problems. But most of those problem are correctable.

The type of frustration felt by Spartan fans is the frustration felt when a team could or maybe even should have won a game, but didn't.

This is significantly different than the frustration felt when a team is completely uncompetitive and gets beaten by more than 20 points, as was the case in five of the seven losses last season. Keep in mind that Michigan State lost to Rutgers last year, at home, by 27 points with a possible bowl bid on the line.

Yes, this type of frustration is different. It might not feel like it, but it is a form of progress. And, that is not just a bunch of hot air.

Week Six Betting Results

Let's now take a look at the performance of last week's picks from my Bad Betting Advice article, starting with the overview summary shown below in Figure 1. More information about how to read this figure can be found in the Week One edition of Against All Odds.

Figure 1: Results of Week Six showing the actual point differentials relative to the opening spread.

A total of nine teams qualified overachieved by beating the spread by more than 14 points: Pittsburgh, UConn, Old Dominion, Memphis, Northwestern, Duke, Ohio State, Clemson, and San Diego State. For the second weekend in a row no teams which failed to cover the spread by 14 points, yet won.

But a total of 12 teams lost in upset fashion, which was right in line with my simulation's prediction of 12.6 from last week. Table 1 below summarizes those upsets and compares them to the picks made last week.

Table 1: Upsets in Week Six based on the opening Vegas line compared to the upset projections from last week.

The biggest upset of the week and the season so far was Penn State's loss at UCLA (+26). An upset of this magnitude only occurs about once per season, on average. The Group of Five also had two upsets of teams favored by double digits: Ball State over Ohio (-17) and Arkansas State over Texas State (-10.5).

Other notable upsets include Virginia over Louisville (-7), Florida over Texas (-6.5), and Wake Forest over Virginia Tech (-5.5).

My algorithm's performance on upsets was a big deflating this week. It went only 2-7 (22%) which brings the year to-date-performance down to 20-20 (50%). ESPN's FPI went 0-1 (0%), bringing its year-to-date tally to 10-21 (32%). 

Table 2 below gives the results of the computers' picks against the opening spread.

Table 2: Results of the highlighted picks against the spread for Week Six.

The performance here was more uplifting as my algorithm went 4-3 (57%) which brings the year-to-date performance up to 17-13 (57%). My analysis of the FPI data resulted in no recommended picks against the spread.

Considering all 50 games in Week Six, my computer went 26-24 (52%) against the opening spread, bringing the year-to-date total to 139-157 (47%). The FPI performed a bit worse, going just 21-29 (42%) against the spread. This brings the year-to-date performance down to 144-152 (49%).

Table 3 below gives the results of the point total bets for Week Six.

Table 3: Results of the recommended point total bets ("over/under") for Week Six.

My point total bets had a strong week. The lock picks went a perfect 2-0 and the full list of recommended picks went 8-5 (62%).

Year-to-date, the locks are still just floating along under .500 at 12-13 (48%) while the full set of recommended bets are 61-68 (47%). 

Updated Big Ten Odds and Expected Wins

Following the results of Week Six, I have re-run the full season Monte Carlo simulation using the updated power rankings, including the current uncertainty in those rankings, to update the season odds for each team. 

Table 4 below gives the update for the Big Ten conference and Table 5 shows the updated Big Ten win distribution matrix.

Note that all the rankings listed in the table and mentioned below refer to my computer's power rankings and not any of the national polls.

Table 4: Updated Big Ten rankings, expected wins, strengths of schedule and season odds following Week Six.

Table 5: Updated Big Ten win distribution matrix after Week Six

The No. 2 Indiana Hoosiers didn't even play a game this week, but they managed to rise 15 percentage points in my Big Ten leaderboard. This is likely due to the strong performance of some of the Hoosiers' past opponents (such as Illinois and Old Dominion) combined with the poor performances of some of their future opponents (such as Maryland, Penn State, Wisconsin, and Purdue).

My simulation continues to give Indiana the best odds to reach the Big Ten Championship Game (61%) ahead of both No. 3 Ohio State (43%) and No. 8 Oregon (34%). 

No. 11 Michigan (29%) and No. 12 Illinois (17%) both got wins over No. 52 Wisconsin and No. 37 Purdue, respectively. These wins are keeping the Wolverines and Fighting Illini in the hunt for a spot in the Big Ten title game along with No. 15 USC (9%).

My simulation currently give five Big Ten teams better than a 50-50 shot to make the college football playoffs. Indiana leads the pack at 90% followed by Ohio State (77%), Illinois (62%), Oregon (51.0%) and Michigan (50.7%).

The most deflated team in the Big Ten is clearly No. 38 Penn State. The shocking loss to No. 103 UCLA dropped the Nittany Lions to 0-2 in Big Ten play and essentially out of the Big Ten race. My simulation now gives Penn State less than a 1% chance to make the playoffs. The updated expected win total is just 6.36 wins.

Remaining Schedule for Michigan State

With the loss to Nebraska, the Spartans fall to 0-2 in Big Ten play, but as discussed above, very little has changed regard the outlook for the rest of the season. 

The expected win total for Michigan State is now 6.05 which translates into a 63.6% chance of at least a 6-6 record and a bowl game. This is slightly better than when I ran the numbers last week, mostly due to secondary changes to the estimated strengths of the Spartan past and future opponents. 

We have also reached the point in the season when I officially drop the preseason ranking from my power index calculation. This change also impacts several of the calculated odds relative to last week.

For the record, my latest simulation results give the Spartans a 1-in-3,125 chance to make the Big Ten Championship Game, a 1-in-12,500 chance to win the Big Ten, a 0.24% chance to make the playoffs, and a 1-in-40,000 chance to win the National Title.

Figure 2 below gives my computer's updated projections for the point spreads and victory odds for the Spartans' remaining seven games. As a reference, the projected odds from my preseason calculations are also shown in Figure 2 along with the values from last week.

Figure 2: Updated odds and spread projections for Michigan State's remaining games, following Week Six  and based on a 50,000 cycle Monte Carlo simulation. The odds calculated last week are shown as a reference.

Despite the disappointing result in Lincoln, there is a lot of football left to be played and a lot of potentially positive outcomes. 

UCLA somehow found a way to beat Penn State, but the Bruins overall body of work is still terrible. The actual betting line opened at around 7.5-points, but my analysis still has the Spartans favored by over two touchdowns next weekend.

Maybe the Bruins suddenly figured it out and will be able to fly to the Midwest and win a game that kicks off at 9 a.m. Pacific Time. That could happen, I suppose. But I stand by my calculations.

The game at Indiana still projects to be a blowout loss for the Spartans, but the rest of the schedule keeps getting more interesting.

The Michigan Wolverines (-11.5) will likely be favored in East Lansing Oct. 25, but anything and everything can happen in that rivalry.

Ohio State destroyed No. 86 Minnesota in Minneapolis and Michigan State now projects to be a 6-point favorite there as well. The Spartans could very well be no worse than 5-4 heading into the second bye week of the season and needing just one more win to secure a bowl bid.

The final three games of the season all look suddenly within reach. Penn State is in a nosedive and project to only be a 2-point favorite in East Lansing. No. 46 Iowa (-5) and No. 39 Maryland (-3) are both only narrowly favored over the Spartans.

Michigan State may only be favored in two more games this season, but the odds to get at least eight total wins are 16%. The odds to win at least seven games are now at 37%.

National Overview

Let's take a quick spin around the country and get an update on the action over the weekend. Table 5 below is my updated college football playoff leaderboard following Week Six. 

The teams are listed in order of my projected odds for each team to make the playoffs. I have also included my power ranking, strength of resume, strength of schedule, conference championship odds, and national title odds, all based on the most recent results of my full-season simulation.

Table 5: College Football playoff leaderboard following the action of Week Six.

It was a quiet week in the SEC with seven teams on a bye week and with No. 1 Oklahoma shutting out a lower tier MAC team in No. 129 Kent State.

No. 5 Alabama, No. 7 Texas A&M, and No. 16 Georgia all won as expected, but No. 25 Texas took an upset loss at No. 48 Florida. This loss knocked the Longhorns down to ninth place on my SEC Leaderboard and likely out of the conference race.

My analysis projects the SEC to be a four-way race between Oklahoma (61% chance to reach the SEC title game), Alabama (41%), Texas A&M (34%), and No. 13 Ole Miss (31%). No. 9 LSU (10%) and No. 16 Georgia (9%) are also longshots.

It look a while, but No. 10 Texas Tech has finally risen to the top of my Big 12 Leaderboard following a 24-point win at No. 36 Houston. My simulation now gives the Red Raiders a 71% chance to reach the Big 12 Championship Game.

Based on these numbers, the real battle is the one for second place. No. 14 BYU currently holds the edge with 37% odds to reach the Big 12 title game. Those odds slipped this week after the Cougars failed to cover versus No. 76 West Virginia.

No. 34 Cincinnati moved up 14 percentage points to 25% after upsetting No. 31 Iowa State. No. 18 Utah had the week off but the Utes odds also increased to 20% which is good enough for fourth place.

In ACC action, No. 6 Miami edged No. 20 Florida State in Tallahassee and continue to have a commanding lead in my conference leaderboard with a 78% chance to reach the ACC Championship Game. No. 29 Duke (50%) is the most likely opponent after a big win after dark at California. 

The most likely ACC spoiler appears to be No. 27 Virginia. The Cavaliers picked up another upset win at No. 35 Louisville and are sitting in third place on my ACC leaderboard with 38% odds to reach the conference title game. No. 51 Georgia Tech (18%) was idle and is currently in more distant fourth place.

Finally, Table 6 gives an update on the most likely teams from the Group of Five to also qualify for a spot in the playoffs.

Table 6: Group of Five Leaderboard following the action of Week Six.

Several of the contenders in the American Athletic Conference had the week off including current leaders No. 23 North Texas (33% playoff odds), No. 22 East Carolina (11%), and No. 41 Tulane (10%). 

However, both No. 32 Memphis (15%) and No. 57 South Florida (4%) won and covered over No. 97 Tulsa and No. 135 Charlotte, respectively. 

If a team from the AAC does not make the playoffs, No. 19 Old Dominion (15%) from the Sun Belt continues to look like the most likely alternative. The Monarchs crushed Coastal Carolina to move to 4-1 on the season. My simulation give Old Dominion a 56% chance to get to 11-1. 

No. 24 Louisiana Tech (8%) was idle but continues to lurk just outside of the current Group of Five top five.

Against all odds we have made it to the end for today. I have expended all of my hot air. I will be back later in the week for another installment of Bad Betting Advice.