Bad Betting Advice, 2025 Week 10: Golden Opportunities

It is no secret that the last few weeks have been difficult for the Michigan State football program. After a promising 3-0 start, the Spartans have dropped five straight games, including last week's game against their bitter in-state rivals from Ann Arbor. 

To add insult to injury, only the power four team that the Spartans have defeated, Boston College, is now 1-7 with exactly zero wins against FBS opponents. Michigan State needed overtime to beat the Eagles in Week Two.

There have been a few bright spots for Michigan State despite the current streak of futility. The Spartans trailed USC by just a touchdown in the fourth quarter. The Spartans has a seven-point lead late in the third quarter at Nebraska. Michigan State played No. 2 Indiana close in the first half on the road. The Spartans even had several chances to get back into the game late against Michigan, despite an overall poor performance.

There have been times throughout the first two-thirds of the season where each unit has shown a spark. The problem is that at least one of the other units seems to blow a tire at the same time. The Spartan offense struggled against Michigan, the Spartan defense struggled against Indiana and USC, the special teams unit struggled at Nebraska, and everyone down the water boy, kickoff kids, and Zeke the Wonder Dog struggled against UCLA.

If Michigan State could actually get all three units playing serviceable football at the same time, the Spartans would suddenly look like a much better football team. It would not be a squad that would suddenly be the golden child of the conference, but it would at least be a team that is good enough to qualify for a bowl game. 

To this point, the Spartans have a golden opportunity to get back in the win column this weekend in Minneapolis against the Minnesota Golden Gophers. My analysis suggests that this Saturday's game is the second easiest game on the Big Ten schedule for Michigan State. It is likely the best remaining chance for the Spartans to get a conference win.

The Gophers have an odd resume so far this season. Minnesota has lackluster wins over Buffalo, Purdue, and Rutgers. The Gophers also lost on the road to very mediocre California team and have a pair of over 35-point losses at Iowa and at Ohio State. 

However, just two weeks ago, Nebraska paid a visit to Minnesota only to lose 24-6. The fact the the Cornhuskers are the only shared opponent so far certainly does temper my enthusiasm. It begs the question as to which version of the Gophers the Spartans will see this weekend.

Regardless, this is an opportunity that the desperate Spartans need to capitalize on. Coach Smith and his staff need to show fans some sign of hope that the program can turn around. A win in Minneapolis would not be some sort of golden ticket to guarantee that Michigan State is back on the track to a bowl game, a win is a win, and positive steps are positive steps.

If the Spartans do return home with the sixth loss of the season on Saturday night, the leadership in the Michigan State athletic department will have a lot to discuss over the bye week. Instead of golden opportunities or golden tickets, for better or worse the discussion may turn to golden parachutes.

Michigan State Prediction

This year will mark the 50th match-up between Michigan State and the University of Minnesota going back to the Spartans' first year in the Big Ten conference in 1950. Michigan State leads the overall series, 30-19.

The Spartans went 4-2 against the Golden Gophers from 1950 to 1957, but Minnesota would then dominate the next phase of the series, winning eight of the nine contests between 1958 and 1972.

When the series resumed in 1975, Michigan State regained control of the series by posting an 18-2 record against the Gophers in the last quarter of the 20th century. Since the year 2000, the series is evenly split. 7-7, with Minnesota currently holding a two-game win streak due to victories in 2022 and 2023.

The first decade of the 21st century was filled with upsets in this series. From 2001 to 2009, the underdog won five of the seven games. But. since 2010 the favorited team 7-0. Michigan State is just 3-13 against the spread versus Minnesota since 1997, but the Spartans have won two of the last three games played in Minneapolis.

For this year's contest, the Vegas spread opened with the Golden Gophers as a 5.5-point favorite at home. This corresponds to a 35% chance that the Spartans will earn an upset win. Since the open, the line did move quickly in a Green and White direction. At the time of press, the Spartans are just a three-point underdog, which suggests the teams are evenly matched on a neutral field.

Overall both my algorithm and ESPN's Football Power Index are in alignment with the current line from Vegas. My computer's official prediction is Minnesota 27, Michigan State 25.

That said, I do think that there is a solid chance that the Spartans will feel their backs firmly pressed against the wall and will come out with their best effort. I like that odds the Michigan State finally gets that feel-good win that fans have been waiting for since last fall. They could then go into the bye week feeling good while they rest up and wait for reeling Penn State comes to town.

But if Michigan State drops a sixth game in a row, this time against a a very mediocre conference 

foe, it likely signals that the wheels have completely fallen off the bus. At that point a 3-9 record and another coaching search may be imminent. 

Big Ten Overview

Table 1 below gives a full summary of the action in the Big Ten in Week 10, including my projected scores, the opening point spread, and the computers' projected point differentials. Note that any rankings discussed below are my system's power rankings and not any of the national polls.

Table 1: Summary of Big Ten action in Week 10, including my algorithms' projected scores. The teams shaded in green are projected to cover by my algorithm. The teams shaded red are projected to cover by the FPI.

The Big Ten slate this week is as light as it has been all year with a full third of the conference enjoying a bye week. It is might be a golden opportunity to enjoy some fall Midwest weather and to polish off any Halloween candy that might be leftover.

For those conference members that are playing on Saturday, six of them will game in games where the spread is over 20 points. No. 2 Indiana (-23), No. 17 Michigan (-20.5), and No. 1 Ohio State (-20.5) are all expected to win easily at No. 55 Maryland, versus No. 76 Purdue, and versus No. 22 Penn State respectively. Interestingly, ESPN's Football Power Index suggests that Penn State might be able to keep the game in Columbus a bit closer.

No. 20 Illinois (-12) should also have no trouble at home against No. 73 Rutgers. My computer expects the Fighting Illini to cover easily.

Outside of the game in Minneapolis, the only other game to keep an eye on is No. 15 USC (-5.5) at No. 50 Nebraska. The Trojans still have a 13% chance to make the college football playoffs according to my calculations. A loss would likely move those odds to zero.

Other Notable National Action

Table 2 below summarizes the notable action elsewhere in the college football landscape in Week 10.

Table 2: Summary of other notable action in Week 10 including my algorithms' projected scores.

The two most likely teams to reach the SEC Championship Game, No. 13 Alabama and No. 9 Texas A&M, both have a bye week, leaving just three conference games with significance to the race.

No. 11 Ole Miss (-13) is expected to handle No. 62 South Carolina, and No. 10 Georgia (-7.5) is a healthy favorite to drink the No. 46 Florida Gators under table at the The World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party.

The most intriguing SEC game this week features No. 21 Vanderbilt at No. 14 Texas (-3). Both teams have hopes of sneaking into both the SEC Championship as well as the playoffs making this a possible elimination game for both.

In Big 12 action, conference co-favorite No. 12 BYU is off this weekend, but the rest of the competitors are all in action.

No. 6 Texas Tech still has the best overall odds to win the conference championship (40%), but the Red Raiders have a potentially tricky road trip planned to No. 43 Kansas State (+7). Third place No. 25 Houston is expected to have an easier time at home against No. 86 West Virginia (+14.5).

The most interesting Big 12 matchup this weekend features the teams sitting in fourth and fifth place on my leaderboard as No. 38 Cincinnati travels to No. 5 Utah (-7). Both computers project that the home Utes will cover the spread, perhaps even easily.

The top five teams on my ACC leaderboard all play this weekend, but none of them are facing each other. All five teams are on the road facing opponents of varying strength. 

No. 8 Miami (-10) and No. 36 Louisville (-10.5) are both double digit favorites, barely, at No. 51 SMU and No. 77 Virginia Tech, respectively. My computer like Miami to cover while the FPI likes both home teams to beat the spread.

No. 32 undefeated Georgia Tech is in first place on my ACC Leaderboard and is on a glide path to an undefeated conference season and ACC Championship berth. This week's contest at No. 60 North Carolina State (+6) is the toughest remaining conference test for the Yellow Jackets. Both computers like the Wolf Pack to cover but to fall short of a home upset.

No. 39 Virginia will try to stay in the race by making the long trip to No. 81 California (+3.5). Both computers forecast that the Cavaliers will cover the spread. No. 40 Duke is not expected to be so lucky at No. 60 Clemson (-3.5), but my computer likes the Blue Devils for the upset.

In Group of Five action, current American Athletic Conference favorite, No. 30 Tulane, faces a tough road challenge at No. Texas San Antonio (+3.5). Tulane's biggest conference competition, No. 29 South Florida, has the weekend off.

In other AAC action, No. 45 Memphis (-14.5) should survive a road test at No. 120 Rice and No. 26 North Texas (-7) will try to hand the No. 78 Navy Midshipmen their first loss of the season. No. 27 East Carolina (-4.5) will try to stay in the AAC race at No. 80 Temple.

No. 19 San Diego State continues to roll through the Mountain West schedule. The Aztecs are once again favored this week versus No. 67 Wyoming (+10.5). In Sun Belt action, current favorite No. 53 James Madison (-5) faces a tough road test at No. 87 Texas State.

Picks of the Week

The sections above highlighted several potential upsets and recommended picks against the spread. Figure 1 below gives an overview summary of all my computer's projections for the week in comparison to the opening Vegas spread. 

The same data generated by EPSN's Football Power Index (FPI) is shown in Figure 2.

Figure 1: Comparison of the projected final margins of victory based on my algorithm to the opening Vegas lines for Week 10.

Figure 2: Comparison of the projected final margins of victory based on ESPN's FPI to the opening Vegas lines for Week 10.

A brief explanation of how to read these figures can be found in Week One's Bad Betting Advice column. This week's upset picks (the games appearing to the left of the vertical red lines in both figures) are summarized below in Table 3.

Table 3: Summary of upset picks for Week 10.

My computer has just four total upset pick recommendations this week, including Oklahoma over Tennessee (-4.5), Duke over Clemson (-3.5), and UCF over Baylor (-6.5). The FPI has no upset picks this week.

Just because the computers are shy does not mean that there will not be many upsets. A simple simulation of the week's games suggests that a total of 13.9 plus-or-minus 3.0 upsets out of 52 games is most likely. 

The games shown above in Figures 1 and 2 which fall outside of either set of dashed diagonal lines make up the set of suggested bets against the spread. Those selections are summarized below in Table 4.

Table 4: Picks against the opening spread for Week 10. The picks are listed in order of confidence score

My algorithm has only five recommended picks against the spread including North Texas (-7) to cover versus Navy, Notre Dame (-28) to cover against Boston College, and Oklahoma (+4.5) to cover against Tennessee. 

My analysis of the FPI data results in no additional recommended bets against the spread.

Finally, Table 5 below summarizes my computer's recommended point total bets for the week.

Table 5: Recommended total points bets (over/under) for Week 10. Note the picks labeled as "locks" are at a higher level of confidence.

My computer recommends a total of three point-total bets this week, all of which meet the criteria as "locks."  The data suggests that Mississippi State and Arkansas will combine for less than 67.5 points. My computer also likes the Michigan State/Minnesota game to hit the over on 44.5 points and Army/Air Force to combine for over 49.5 points

That is all the advice I have for you this week. A silver lining of even a bad season it that sometimes my computer has a golden touch. Enjoy the games and check back early next week in Against All Odds to see how the picks above panned out.