Bad Betting Advice, 2025 Week Eight: Hoosiers

Today, I present to you an underdog story. Strap Purl might even refer to it as a story of David versus Goliath.

The Michigan State Spartans football team is in the midst of a suddenly tumultuous season. The loss last week to the Bruins of UCLA has shaken the small, football-loving community of East Lansing to its core. This week, the Spartans travel to the city of Bloomington to face the mighty Indiana Hoosiers.

The Hoosiers are big and athletic and suddenly ranked No. 3 in the country. The Spartans find themselves banged up and with a shrinking bench. The odds are heavily stacked against them.

To add to the drama, Michigan State has a coach that is suddenly under fire. Members of the community are speaking out and questing if he is the right man for the job. 

But Head Coach Jonathan Smith is undaunted by the criticism. He is focused on getting back to work. His team needs get back to basics. There needs to be a focus on fundamental and defense and on all 11 guys on the field functioning as one single unit. I would imagine that the practices this week are not designed for the enjoyment of the players.

Maybe Smith is even considering some new wrinkles on offense. Perhaps quarterback Aidan Chiles should consider a few underhanded throws. It worked for Ollie. On second thought, maybe not.

If nothing else, Michigan State fans need to see some signs of progress this weekend even in the face of very tall odds. Spartan fans need to feel hope that the season and the program are not on the brink of disaster.

If the Spartans can put their effort and concentration into playing to their potential, to be the best that they can be, I don't care what the scoreboard says at the end of the game, that will be progress. There is still time to turn this season and the Jonathan Smith era around, even if the game on Saturday does not go the Spartans' way.

Some Spartan fans may not agree with this sentiment, and I can understand their frustration. But to those fans I offer up a (slightly modified) quote from a film about another group of Hoosiers that feels appropriate to the moment.

"I would hope you would support who we are. Not, who we are not. These 117 individuals have made a choice to work, a choice to sacrifice, to put themselves on the line for 12 games for the next few months, to represent you, this University. That kind of commitment and effort deserves and demands your respect. This is your team."

It tough times like these, I believe that is important to remember.

Perhaps these words move you and perhaps they don't. If not, well, all I can offer to you is that basketball season will be here soon.

Michigan State Prediction

The Michigan State/Indiana rivalry goes back to 1922 and includes a total of 71 games. Only the Michigan Wolverine (117) and Notre Dame (79)  have faced the Spartans more times than the Hoosiers. Michigan State currently holds the overall edge in the series, 51-18-2. Michigan State has more wins over Indiana that over any other program.

As the overall record indicates the Spartans have dominated the battle for the Brass Spittoon. Between 1970 and 2019, Indiana posted only seven total wins over Michigan State. The Hoosiers have not won back-to-back games over the Spartans since 1968 and 1969.

But the series has been much more competitive since 2020. Indiana is 3-2 against Michigan State in this span with the road team winning all five contests. This includes an upset win by Indiana in East Lansing in 2022 and an upset win by Michigan State in Bloomington in 2023.

If the trend of upsets and the road team prevailing is going to continue, the Spartans will have to beat the odds in order to do it. Indiana opened as 26.5-point favorites, which suggests that Michigan State has only a 3% chance to pull off the upset. That is slightly worse that the historical odds of a No. 15 seed beating a No. 2 seed in the NCAA Basketball Tournament.

It is truly a David versus Goliath story this week.

My computer is even less confident in the Spartans' prospect against the Hoosiers than Vegas is. The machines are all in for Goliath this week. My computer's official score prediction is Indiana 51, Michigan State 7.

Big Ten Overview

Table 1 below gives a full summary of the action in the Big Ten in Week Eight, including my projected scores, the opening point spread, and the computers' projected point differentials. Note that any rankings discussed below are my system's power rankings and not any of the national polls.

Table 1: Summary of Big Ten action in Week Eight, including my algorithms' projected scores. The teams shaded in green are projected to cover by my algorithm. The teams shaded red are projected to cover by the FPI.

This week's Big Ten schedule features eight conference games and one notable non-conference game. Illinois has the week off.

It will likely be a quiet week for the teams at the top of the conference, just like Hickory, Ind. on a Sunday afternoon. As discussed above, No. 2 Indiana is a big favorite, as is No. 1 Ohio State which travels to No. 80 Wisconsin (+27). No. 7 Oregon is also a double-digit favorite, but the Ducks must travel cross-country to face No. 64 Rutgers (+14.5).

However, there may be some sports drama a little lower in the standings. No. 21 Michigan hosts No. 20 Washington (+6.5). Both teams are currently hanging on to slim hopes of sneaking into the Big Ten Championship game or the playoffs. The loser is likely eliminated from both.

The ongoing Penn State drama continues with the No. 42 Nittany Lions making the trip to Iowa City to face the No. 19 Iowa Hawkeyes (-3). My computer is picking Iowa to cover over the James-Franklin-less Lions while the FPI sees the game as a toss up.

No. 83 UCLA is back in California and the Bruins will try to extend their winning streak to three games at the expense of  No. 47 Maryland (+2.5). Vegas expects UCLA to get the win while my computer favors the Terrapins with the upset. That said, a big win by UCLA over a team still on the Spartans' schedule would be a positive sign for Michigan State.

Similarly, Michigan State fans hope that No. 36 Nebraska can easily handle the road trip to No. 73 Minnesota (+5). Both computers like the Cornhuskers to cover.

No. 49 Purdue travels to No. 70 Northwestern (-3.5) and both teams are simply fighting to reach bowl eligibility. My computer likes the Boilermakers in an upset.

No. 15 USC goes out of conference and on the road this week to No. 3 Notre Dame (-8.5). My computer clearly has the Fighting Irish in high regard, but with two losses already, Notre Dame is desperate for a quality win to bolster the fading odds at a playoff berth. My computer likes the Golden Doomer by 17 points.

Other Notable National Action

Table 2 below summarizes the notable action elsewhere in the college football cinematic universe in Week Eight.

Table 2: Summary of other notable action in Week Eight including my algorithms' projected scores.

The SEC conference race is wide open with seven teams with at least a 10% chance to reach the conference championship game. Two of those teams face each other this week as No. 17 Ole Miss travels to Athens to face No. 12 Georgia (-7). The computers both have Ole Miss losing, but barely covering.

Four of the other five top SEC contenders face interesting, but likely manageable challenges. No. 9 Alabama has the best current conference odds. The Crimson Tide host No. 46 Tennessee (+8.5) and my computer foresees a 20-point blowout.

No. 8 Texas A&M has the second best odds in the SEC according to my computer. The Aggies will likely face a stiffer challenge at No. 43 Arkansas (+7.5). No. 6 Oklahoma will be similarly tested on the road at No. 57 South Carolina (+4).

No. 11 Texas has slightly longer SEC odds, but they have the easiest challenge of the weekend at No. 67 Kentucky (+12).

No. 10 LSU is also a dark horse SEC contender, but the Tigers are a slight underdog at No. 22 Vanderbilt (-1.5). My computer likes LSU with the upset.

There are currently four prime contenders in the Big 12 and two of them square off this week. No. 13 Utah travels to No. 16 BYU (+3) in a battle for second place on my leaderboard. Utah is a slight favorite in Vegas, but my computer is betting on BYU.

No. 5 Texas Tech has a commanding lead in Big 12 odds. This week the Red Raiders are on the road at No. 62 Arizona State (+10). My computer has Texas Tech by 20 points.

No. 38 Cincinnati is also still in the hunt for the Big 12 crown. The Bearcats are expected to win easily at No. 116 Oklahoma State (+20.5).

The ACC is also currently a four-team race with No. 4 Miami with a significant lead in odds. The Hurricanes host No. 34 Louisville (+13) and my machines expects Miami to cover.

No. 27 Duke has the second best odds to reach the ACC Championship Game. The Blue Devils host the current fourth place team, No. 45 Georgia Tech (+2.5). Both computers predict that Duke will cover.

No. 28 Virginia is also still in the mix for the ACC Title. The Cavaliers have a non-conference game versus No. 51 Washington State (+17.5).

The race for the top ranking Group of Five Champion has quickly turned into the race for the American Athletic Conference (AAC) Title. My analysis shows three teams in the lead pack with two other teams still in the hunt. None of those five teams play each other this week.

No. 32 South Florida, No. 31 Memphis, and No. 35 Tulane make up the lead pack with roughly 45% to 55% odds to reach the AAC Championship Game. Those three teams face Florida Atlantic (+21), UAB (+21), and Army (+10.5), respectively. 

The second tier of contenders includes No. 23 East Carolina and No. 30 North Texas. The Pirates host Tulsa (+15.5) this week while the Mean Green host Texas San Antonio (+5.5). An upset loss by any of those five teams could knock them out of the race.

The other potential playoff contender from the Group of Five, No. 24 San Diego State, has a bye.

Picks of the Week

The sections above highlighted several potential upsets and recommended picks against the spread. Figure 1 below gives an overview summary of all my computer's projections for the week in comparison to the opening Vegas spread. 

The same data generated by EPSN's Football Power Index (FPI) is shown in Figure 2.

Figure 1: Comparison of the projected final margins of victory based on my algorithm to the opening Vegas lines for Week Eight.

Figure 2: Comparison of the projected final margins of victory based on ESPN's FPI to the opening Vegas lines for Week Eight.

A brief explanation of how to read these figures can be found in Week One's Bad Betting Advice column. This week's upset picks (the games appearing to the left of the vertical red lines in both figures) are summarized below in Table 3.

Table 3: Summary of upset picks for Week Eight.

My computer has nine total upset pick recommendations this week, five of which the FPI agrees with. The most notable upsets on the board are Purdue over Northwestern (-3.5), BYU over Utah (-3), Maryland over UCLA (-2.5), and LSU over Vanderbilt (-1.5).

The FPI adds one additional notable upset: Missouri over Auburn (-2.5).

A simple simulation of the week's games suggests that a total of 16.4 plus-or-minus 3.2 upsets out of 59 games is most likely. This is the highest number of predicted upsets in any given week so far in the 2025 season, surpassing last week.

The games shown above in Figures 1 and 2 which fall outside of either set of dashed diagonal lines make up the set of suggested bets against the spread. Those selections are summarized below in Table 4.

Table 4: Picks against the opening spread for Week Eight. The picks are listed in order of confidence score.

My algorithm has six total recommended picks against the spread including Memphis (-21) covering against UAB, South Florida (-21) to cover against Florida Atlantic, North Texas (-5.5) to cover against Texas San Antonio, and Indiana (-26.5) to cover against Michigan State.

My analysis of the FPI data results in just one additional pick: Syracuse (+10.5) to cover against Pittsburgh. 

Also note that Western Kentucky did not cover against Florida International on Tuesday night. In fact, the Hilltoppers were upset. So, the algorithm is already 0-1 for the week.

Finally, Table 5 below summarizes my computer's recommended point total bets for the week.

Table 5: Recommended total points bets (over/under) for Week Eight. Note the picks labeled as "locks" are at a higher level of confidence.

My computer recommends a total of nine point total bets this week, seven of which meet the criteria as "locks."  

The notable picks on the board this week are Nebraska and Minnesota to combine for more than 46.5 points, Penn State and Iowa to combine for more than 38.5 points, Utah and BYU to combine for more than 47.5 points, and Missouri and Auburn to combine for more than 44.5 points.

That is all the advice I have for you this week. Enjoy the games and check back early next week in Against All Odds to see how the picks above panned out.