Bad Betting Advice, 2025 Week Nine: Civil War

In a world fraught with conflict and uncertainty, two proud football teams will meet on the gridiron Saturday night to once again decide which University will get bragging rights for the next 12 months. 

The winner will get a cool wooden statue of a lumberjack. The coach of the winning team will also get to enjoy a full week of not getting asked if he is getting fired. Probably.

That's right. It's Michigan Week. That special time every fall in the Great Lakes State that pits neighbor against neighbor, brother against brother, green versus blue, Spartans versus Wolverines. It's an all-out civil war.

But this year both teams find themselves dealing with different kinds of adversity. The Spartans (3-4) are struggling with their identify in the midst of a four-game losing streak and a three-year streak with no bowl game. 

Meanwhile, the Wolverines' (5-2) unrealistic dreams for a Big Ten title and playoff berth are fading. Michigan continues to grapples with the challenges of remaining relevant on the national stage when they no longer know which play their opponent is going to run every time. 

The Spartans are also looking avenge a series of three straight losses in the series. But this year's matchup with the Wolverines is far from a battle between Captain America and Iron Man. It's more like U.S. Agent versus Red Guardian. 

The main difference being that Red Guardian is entitled, older, bald, less witty, more arrogant, and has a poor sense of fashion. Maize and Blue Guardian's only super power is a severe case of undiagnosed narcissistic personality disorder combined with poor personal hygiene.

The stakes in this year's football contest are lower than most years. But embattled Spartan coach Jonathan Smith will have an opportunity on Saturday for a signature win over his new team's biggest rival. 

It is an opportunity to show that he learned from last year and now understands the nature of the rivalry. It is an opportunity for he and his team to demonstrate a certain level of grit, energy, intensity, and focus that at times have been lacking this year.

Smith and his players need to embrace and take advantage of this opportunity.

Fortunately, Jonathan Smith knows a little something about civil war. In addition to it being the name of a mid Marvel film, it is also the common nickname of the annual football game between the University of Oregon Ducks and Oregon State University Beavers, Smith's alma mater and previous employer. 

Smith faced the Ducks a total of four times as a player, twice as a graduate assistant, and six times as the head coach of the Beavers. Smith beat Oregon twice as a player, once as a graduate assistant, and twice as a head coach for an overall record of 5-7. 

Four of those five wins came against an Oregon team ranked on the top 15 nationally and all five occurred at home. Oregon State was an underdog in three of the five wins, including a win as a nine-point underdog in Smith's freshman year of 1998 and as a 13-point underdog as the head coach in 2020. Smith achieved all of this despite never securing a recruiting class ranked in the top 50.

There are several parallel between the Michigan/Michigan State rivalry and the Oregon/Oregon State rivalry. They are considered to be two of the more intense and, dare I say, uncivilized rivalries in the country. Oregon State is the original land-grant in the state and was once even named Oregon Agricultural College. 

Jonathan Smith is still new to the Midwest and new to the state of Michigan, but he should be very familiar with the type of archvillain that he faces in this new rivalry. It is a villain that he has defeated before. The setting may have changes, but the beats of the plot should be very familiar.

Smith has the experience and the tools to compete in this rivalry. The plot of Saturday's game is sure to contain some twists and turns. Will new heroes rise and breathe life into the franchise? Or will the bad guys win again leaving many Spartans asking for the director to give up his chair? Make sure to stay to the final credits to see how the story ends.

Michigan State Prediction

The Michigan State/Michigan rivalry goes back to 1898 and includes a total of 117 matches. The Wolverines dominated the early portion of the rivalry. Michigan won 33 of the first 42 games between 1898 and 1949. The Wolverines were even kind enough to allow five of those contests to be played in East Lansing.

But the rivalry experienced a major power shift when Michigan State because an official member of the Big Ten conference in 1950. The new kid on the block racked up 14 wins and two ties against older brother in the 1950s and 1960s.

The Wolverines would strike back in the 1970s and proceeded to dominate the series over the next 40 years. The Spartans only won eight games in the series between 1970 and 2007. But starting in 2008, Coach Mark Dantonio put the Wolverines back into their place by winning 10 of the next 14 games. 

Since 1950, Michigan leads the series 41-32-2. The Spartans' 32 wins since 1950 is equal to the total number of wins Michigan has over Ohio State in the same timeframe.

The good news for Michigan fans is that the Spartans are struggling. Since 1950, the Wolverines have an embarrassing 2-18 record against the Spartans in seasons where Michigan State wins over 70% of the other games on the schedule. Despite claims that Michigan State only beats Michigan when the Wolverines are down, the exact opposite scenario is the one that is true.

We expect nothing less from a school with a mascot that pretends to be fierce but which in reality is a scavenger and carrion eating member of the weasel with nicknames that refer to both skunks and people who eat too much. 

Since the Wolverines handed the Spartans their only loss in the 1955 season, the best win for Michigan over the Spartans in the ensuing 70 years was in 1989 when the Green and White went 8-4 and George Perles led Michigan State to an exciting win in the Aloha Bowl. Impressive!

As for this year's contest, Michigan opened as a 13-point favorite on the road which corresponds to an 18% chance that the Spartans will be able to reclaim the Paul Bunyan trophy. 

Historically, this spread is in an odd range for games in the series played in Spartan Stadium. Over the past 30 years or so where spread data is generally available, Michigan State is rarely more than a touchdown underdog at home against Michigan. The only exceptions were the 2016 season (+20) and the 2023 season (+24) where the wheels had long detached from the Green and White bus.

The most notable recent Spartan upset wins over Michigan in East Lansing came in 2001 (+6) and 2021 (+4). An upset win this year would make it one of the biggest home upsets in series history. Beyond just the series with Michigan, the Spartans are 0-9 in Spartan Stadium since 2001 in games where the spread opened over 10 points. Perhaps Michigan State is due for a big win.

Michigan State has been between a 12 and 15.5-point underdog in Ann Arbor four times since 2002. The Spartans did earn one upset win in this span. Michigan State (+12) beat the Wolverines in the rain soaked game in 2017.

My computer foresees an outcome that this very similar to what the oddsmakers in Vegas are saying. My official prediction is Michigan 34, Michigan State 19. But I can imagine a path to victory for the Green and White.

Michigan is coming off their biggest win of the year over a solid Washington team. Michigan State is coming off the biggest loss of the season at Indiana. The Wolverines are likely feel pretty good about themselves. Maybe they are feeling a bit too good. 

At the same time, the Spartans may be starting to feel a bit sorry for themselves after losing four straight. But there are few situations in sports that are more effective in converting frustration into a focused resolution than playing a bitter rival.

To this end, Michigan State is going to need to harness the energy of the rivalry and play a brand of football that is sharper and more focused than what we have seen since the opening game against Western Michigan. That means minimizing blown coverages, missed tackles, and bad routes. 

The Spartans have to find a way to limit the Wolverine's explosive running game. Running back Justice Haynes has had a great season so far for Michigan, but he is coming off an injury that prevented him from playing last week against Washington. Haynes has the potential to take the ball to the house every time he touches it. Michigan State needs to make sure that doesn't happen.

Michigan State needs to confuse and frustrate talented but young quarterback Bryce Underwood. This will be Underwood's first taste of the rivalry in person. There is a chance that the moment will be bigger than what he is ready for at this phase of his development.

So far this season, Michigan is +9 in turnover margin while Michigan State is -3. The Spartans need to find a way to turn this luck around. If Michigan State can be +1 or +2 on turnovers, the probability of an upset increase dramatically.

If the Spartans can do these things, Michigan's ability to score points will be limited. From there, Aidan Chiles needs to play like the best version of himself. He needs to move the ball with both his arms and his legs and he needs to avoid the big mistake. Chiles was very good in Bloomington last weekend against a much better opponent. That is the version of Chiles that the Spartans will need against Michigan.

The Michigan State run game has struggled over the past few weeks. The Spartans need to find their footing in this area and at least be serviceable. Chiles cannot be expected to carry the full load of the offense by himself. The Green and White may need a surprise performance similar to the one running back Nathan Carter gave in Ann Arbor last fall.

Finally, outside of the gaffes against Nebraska, specials teams has been a secret super power for the Spartans all year. It needs to be again on Saturday. 

Michigan State likely will not be able to win all of the battles mentioned above. But if the Spartans can find a way to win a majority of those battles, it is likely that they can win the war. 

Big Ten Overview

Table 1 below gives a full summary of the action in the Big Ten in Week Nine, including my projected scores, the opening point spread, and the computers' projected point differentials. Note that any rankings discussed below are my system's power rankings and not any of the national polls.

Table 1: Summary of Big Ten action in Week Nine, including my algorithms' projected scores. The teams shaded in green are projected to cover by my algorithm. The teams shaded red are projected to cover by the FPI.

Believe it or not, there six other games taking place in the Big Ten this week outside of the city of East Lansing. There are also three Big Ten teams on a bye: Maryland, Ohio State, and Penn State.

Two of the contests feature conference contenders hosting teams near the bottom of the standings. No. 3 Oregon (-34.5) and No. 2 Indiana (-24) are expected to have no trouble against No. 89 Wisconsin and No. 73 UCLA.

No. 52 Nebraska (-8.5) hosts No. 45 Northwestern is a game of teams with 5-2 records. But, the  surprising Wildcats (3-1) are a game ahead of the Cornhuskers (2-2) in the Big Ten standings. Both computers have Northwestern covering and my computer comes just short of predicting a Wildcat upset.

No. 22 Iowa (-8) and No. 64 Minnesota have identical records (5-2, 3-1) and both teams are currently sitting safely on the positive side of the bowl berth bubble. The computers both expect the home-town Hawkeyes to cover in Iowa City.

The No. 17 Illinois Fighting Illini (+5.5) find themselves underdogs on the road in Seattle against the No. 34 Washington Huskies. My computer likes the Illini in an upset win that could pave the way for a 10-win season and a surprise trip to the college football playoffs.

No. 75 Rutgers (-1.5) and No. 70 Purdue will both likely be home for the holidays, but at least one of the teams will emerge from West Lafayette with a conference win. My computer is betting on the Boilermakers in a home upset.

Other Notable National Action

Table 2 below summarizes the notable action elsewhere in the college football cinematic universe in Week Nine.

Table 2: Summary of other notable action in Week Nine including my algorithms' projected scores.

In SEC action, No. 12 Texas A&M is undefeated and well positioned to make the conference championship game. The Aggies will attempt to take another big step in that direction at No. 14 LSU (+1.5). However, my computer forecasts LSU to win in upset fashion.

No. 5 Oklahoma (-4) and No. 16 Ole Miss have fading hopes of SEC conference glory. The loser of this week's game between them in Norman, Okla., will likely be out of the race.

No. 21 Vanderbilt (-2.5) and No. 25 Missouri are also playing each other in a likely conference elimination game in Nashville. My computer like the Commodores to cover at home and stay in the competition.

The remaining SEC contenders face weaker opponents in Week Nine, but they must do so on the road. Current favorite No. 10 Alabama (-13) should get the win at No. 63 South Carolina, and No. 11 Texas (-7) is expected to survive the trip to No. 50 Mississippi State. No. 9 Georgia has a bye.

In Big 12 action, No. 7 Texas Tech (-38.5) should get an easy bounce-back win at home against No. 120 Oklahoma State. But the other top conference contender, No. 13 BYU, faces a much steeper challenge at No. 26 Iowa State (-2). Both computers like BYU with the upset win.

If either Texas Tech or BYU were to falter, No. 37 Cincinnati is the most likely team to benefit. That is, as long as the Bearcats (-5) can get past No. 65 Baylor at home.

In ACC action, the top four contenders are all in action against much weak opponents. No. 32 Georgia Tech (-17.5) hosts No. 93 Syracuse, No. 19 Louisville (-23.5) hosts No. 119 Boston College, and No. 6 Miami (-30) hosts No. 94 Stanford. 

The only contender which might feel some heat this week is No. 27 Virginia which makes to the trip to visit No. 103 North Carolina (+9).

In Group of Five action, the game of the week features No. 36 South Florida (-3.5) at No. 44 Memphis. A win at home by the Bulls would put them in the drivers seat for a American Athletic Conference Title and a possible playoff berth. A win from Memphis would get the Tigers back into the race.

No. 23 North Texas is also a top AAC contender, and the Mean Green are heavy favorites this week at No. 135 Charlotte (+27). No. 29 Tulane and No. 28 East Carolina both have a bye along with Sun Belt favorite No. 49 James Madison.

In Mountain West action, No. 24 San Diego State has aspirations of a playoff berth. The Aztecs are narrow favorites at No. 102 Fresno State (+2.5), but my computer foresee a blowout victory by the road team.

Picks of the Week

The sections above highlighted several potential upsets and recommended picks against the spread. Figure 1 below gives an overview summary of all my computer's projections for the week in comparison to the opening Vegas spread. 

The same data generated by EPSN's Football Power Index (FPI) is shown in Figure 2.

Figure 1: Comparison of the projected final margins of victory based on my algorithm to the opening Vegas lines for Week Nine.

Figure 2: Comparison of the projected final margins of victory based on ESPN's FPI to the opening Vegas lines for Week Nine.

A brief explanation of how to read these figures can be found in Week One's Bad Betting Advice column. This week's upset picks (the games appearing to the left of the vertical red lines in both figures) are summarized below in Table 3.

Table 3: Summary of upset picks for Week Nine

My computer has nine total upset pick recommendations this week, including Illinois over Washington (-5.5), Memphis over South Florida (+3.5), BYU over Iowa State (+2), and LSU over Texas A&M (+1.5).

The FPI only contributes two upset picks. It agrees with the BYU pick and adds an upset by Toledo over Western Michigan (+2).

A simple simulation of the week's games suggests that a total of 14.5 plus-or-minus 3.0 upsets out of 53 games is most likely. 

The games shown above in Figures 1 and 2 which fall outside of either set of dashed diagonal lines make up the set of suggested bets against the spread. Those selections are summarized below in Table 4.

Table 4: Picks against the opening spread for Week Nine. The picks are listed in order of confidence score.

My algorithm has only five recommended picks against the spread and only one of them involves Power Four teams: Louisville (-23.5) to cover against Boston College. Other notable picks are for San Diego State (-2.5), Old Dominion (-13), and North Texas (-27) all to cover.

One of the picks already incorrect, as Louisiana Tech was upset in overtime on Tuesday night by Western Kentucky and therefore failed to cover the spread.

My analysis of the FPI data results in no additional recommended bets against the spread.

Finally, Table 5 below summarizes my computer's recommended point total bets for the week.

Table 5: Recommended total points bets (over/under) for Week Nine. Note the picks labeled as "locks" are at a higher level of confidence.

My computer recommends a total of four point total bets this week, two of which meet the criteria as "locks."  The data suggests that Baylor and Cincinnati will not combine to score over 67.5 points, but that Minnesota/Iowa (38.5), Missouri/Vanderbilt (52.5), and Tennessee/Kentucky (53.5) will all hit the over.

That is all the advice I have for you this week. Let's do our best to keep things civil on Saturday night, even if the Wolverines want to start a war. Enjoy the games and check back early next week in Against All Odds to see how the picks above panned out.