Against All Odds, 2025 Week 10: Superstition

I am not a very superstitious person by nature. I believe that it just isn't the way. But when you see so many things that you don't understand, it really makes one wonder.

The Michigan State Spartans suffered yet another loss on Saturday, this time an overtime loss on the road to Minnesota. But it wasn't so much that it happened as how it happened that is so frustrating.

In many ways, the Spartans played well enough to win. Redshirt freshman quarterback Alessio Milivojevic was sharp in his first career start. The Spartan defense forced seven punts and one missed field goal, and Michigan State generally dominated the box score.

But the Spartans also found a way to make just enough mistakes to allow the Golden Gophers to be tied at the end of regulation. If one had a magic wand and the ability to change to result just one out of about ten different plays, Michigan State would have won the game. 

Then, once the game made it to overtime, it seemed like Stevie Wonder himself made cameo appearance as a member of the officiating crew for the second week in a row. The rest is history. 

Over the past several years, the Spartans have found increasingly creative ways to lose winnable football games. Poor play and poor execution are certainly to blame, but at some point I have to wonder if someone jerk has a voodoo doll version of Sparty down in their basement.

Seriously, did someone on Dantonio's staff in the summer of 2018 somehow walk under a ladder, trip over a black cat and fall into and break a looking glass? Other than the 2021 season, which now seems like a daydream, the Spartans seems to be suffering through seven years of bad luck.

In the 23 months since Jonathan Smith arrived on campus, Michigan State is just 3-12 in conference play. Some believe that the writing is on the wall and are begging Spartan Athletic Director J Batt to do all that he can to save the program.

I am not convinced that making a change to the coaching staff will actually rid the Spartans of their problems. Jumping back onto the coaching carousel can often just bring seven more years of bad luck. 

I am also not convinced that the good days of Jonathan Smith's coaching career are only in his past. But the devil is in the details and the details so far have not been good.

I don't have the answer to how to turn around this sad song. All I can do to encourage all the fans, coaches, and players to keep on going strong. Other than that, there is nothing more to say.

Week 10 Betting Results

Let's take a look at the performance of last week's picks from my Bad Betting Advice article, starting with the overview summary shown below in Figure 1. More information about how to read this figure can be found in the Week One edition of Against All Odds.

Figure 1: Results of Week 10 showing the actual point differentials relative to the opening spread.

A total of 10 teams overachieved by beating the spread by more than 14 points. This list includes Indiana, Arizona, East Carolina, James Madison, Utah, Baylor, and Texas Tech. The only team to fail to cover the spread by 14 points, yet win, was Michigan.

A total of 17 teams were upset in Week 10, which is on the high side of the range that I predicted last week. Table 1 below summarizes those upsets and compares them to the picks made last week.

Table 1: Upsets in Week 10 based on the opening Vegas line compared to the upset projections from last week.

There were four games this week where a team favored by double digits lost: Fresno State took out Boise State (-17.5), West Virginia upset Houston (-14.5), SMU shocked Miami (-10), and Kentucky beat the head coach out of Auburn (-10).  

Other notable upsets include North Carolina State over Georgia Tech (-6), Arizona State over Iowa State (-5), and Mississippi State over Arkansas (-4).

My algorithm went a wonderful 3-1 (75%) which brings the year to-date-performance to 33-41 (43%). ESPN's Football Power Index did not make an upset pick this week, leaving the year-to-date record at 17-26 (39.5%).

Table 2 below gives the results of the computers' picks against the opening spread.

Table 2: Results of the highlighted picks against the spread for Week 10.

My algorithm went 3-2 (60%) on the recommended bets, bringing the year-to-date performance to 30-27 (53%). My analysis of the FPI data once again resulted no recommended picks against the spread leaving the year-to-date tally at 20-15 (57%).

Considering all 52 games this weekend, my computer went 28-24 (54%) against the opening spread, bringing the year-to-date total to 259-257 (50.2%). The FPI did not perform quite as well. It went 23-29 (44%) against the spread which brings the year-to-date performance down to 241-275 (47%).

Table 3 below gives the results of the point total bets for Week 10.

Table 3: Results of the recommended point total bets ("over/under") for Week 10.

The bad news is that my algorithm did not get any point-total picks correct this week. The good news is that it only made three picks total, but they were all considered as "locks." Even one overtime period in Minneapolis was not enough to hit the over.

As a result the year-to-date performance for the locks is down to 17-21 (45%). The overall performance for my set of recommended point-total bets is now to 70-79 (47%). 

Updated Big Ten Odds and Expected Wins

Following the results of Week 10, I have re-run the full season Monte Carlo simulation using the updated power rankings, including the current uncertainty in those rankings, to update the season odds for each team. 

Table 4 below gives the update for the Big Ten conference and Table 5 shows the updated Big Ten win distribution matrix.

Note that all the rankings listed in the table and mentioned below refer to my computer's power rankings and not any of the national polls.

Table 4: Updated Big Ten rankings, expected wins, strengths of schedule and season odds following Week 10.

Table 5: Updated Big Ten win distribution matrix after Week 10.

It was a quiet week in the Big Ten. There were no upsets in the six conference games, and the majority of the favored teams won easily. No. 1 Indiana covered at No. 60 Maryland as the Hoosiers continue to have the best odds in the conference (95%) to make the Big Ten Championship Game. 

No. 2 Ohio State (85%) is just behind Indiana on my leaderboard after covering at home against No. 22 Penn State. No. 19 Illinois is effectively out of the Big Ten race, but the Fighting Illini are bowl eligible after taking care of No. 72 Rutgers.

No. 17 USC (2.6%) had to come from behind to win on the road at No. 54 Nebraska. In the process, the Trojans became bowl eligible and eliminated Nebraska from conference contention. USC is still a long-shot to make the Big Ten Championship Game.

No. 21 Michigan (3.7%) slid four spots in my power rankings, thanks to a lackluster win over No. 74 Purdue. If the Wolverines were to win out, including an improbable win over No. 1 Ohio State on Nov. 29, they still do not control their own destiny in the Big Ten race. Based on conference strength of schedule, Michigan is in a weak position relative to Oregon, Indiana, Iowa, and USC in potential tiebreaker scenarios.

As for making the college football playoffs, Indiana (99.4%) and Ohio State (98.8%) are virtual shoe-ins. No. 3 Oregon (71%) was idle this week, but is also in a very strong position. USC (16.8%), No. 18 Iowa (12.4%), Michigan (10.7%), Washington (8.6%), and Illinois (5.6%) are all longshots, but still in contention.

Remaining Schedule for Michigan State

The loss at Minnesota has dropped the Spartans to 3-6 for the year. When it comes to bowl eligibility, the margin for error is now zero. 

Ironically, Michigan State beat the spread yet again in a loss and move to 5-1 against the spread in conference play. The Spartans actually moved up two spots in my power rankings to No. 68. However the expected win total has dropped to a season low value of just 3.79. The odds for Michigan State to reach six wins and qualify for a bowl game are down to just 2.2%.

In case anyone is wondering, it is extremely unlikely for the Spartans to quality for a bowl game with a 5-7 record. There is one fewer bowl game this year as the Bahamas Bowl has been removed from the slate. This means that only 80 bowl slots are available in 2025. My most recent simulation says that there is just a 0.9% chance that there will not be enough teams with at least a 6-6 record.

Moreover, Michigan State academic progress rate (APR) has drop to No. 79 in the country. Even if there were to be an open bowl slot for a 5-7 team, it is extremely likely that the spots would be filled by a team with a higher APR. I cannot say that the odds for a 5-7 Michigan State team to make a bowl game are identically zero, but they are likely very close to zero.

Figure 2 below gives my computer's updated projections for the point spreads and victory odds for the Spartans' remaining three games. As a reference, the projected odds from my preseason calculations are also shown in Figure 2 along with the values from last week.

Figure 2: Updated odds and spread projections for Michigan State's remaining games, following Week Eight and based on a 80,000 cycle Monte Carlo simulation. The odds calculated last week are shown as a reference.

Very little has changed since last week. Michigan State is still likely to be a double-digit underdog at home versus Penn State (-10.5) and a bigger underdog at Iowa (-17). But the game at Ford Field against Maryland (-2.5) is certainly within reach.

The mission at hand is clear. The Spartans need to rest up over the bye week and give maximum effort against Penn State in the final game in Spartan Stadium for the year. 

The Nittany Lions will likely be 3-6 with back-to-back double digit losses after Indiana is finished with them next weekend. There may be a significant psychological and mental edge for the Spartans if Penn State is completely broken, which is certainly possible.

The road game at Iowa is clearly the biggest impediment to possible late-season surge for the Green and White. That said, the Hawkeyes will be coming off back-to-back games versus Oregon and at USC and will be looking forward to a rivalry game at Nebraska. It will be Senior Day in Iowa City, but will it also be a trap game for a team with mild jet lag?

If the Spartans can somehow win the next two games, the Ford Field finale against Maryland will be a toss up for a shot at a bowl game. In this scenario, my level of confidence of a win would be quite high.

That all said, the cold, hard numbers tell me that there is only an 18% chance that Michigan State finishes with a record of 5-7 or better. The odds for either a 3-9 or 4-8 record are a near identical 41%.

National Overview

Let's take a quick spin around the country and get an update on the other action over the weekend. Table 5 below is my updated college football playoff leaderboard following Week 10. 

The teams are listed in order of my projected odds for each team to make the playoffs. I have also included my power ranking, strength of resume, strength of schedule, conference championship odds, and national title odds, all based on the most recent results of my full-season simulation.

Table 5: College Football playoff leaderboard following the action of Week 10.

There were three upsets in SEC action this week, but they all involved teams farther down the standings and will not impact the overall race. Even No. 7 Oklahoma's upset win at No. 30 Tennessee keeps the Sooners in the playoff discussion, but neither team had better than a 2% chance to reach the SEC Championship Game before they faced each other.

No. 12 Alabama (68%) and No. 8 Texas A&M (51%) continue to be the favorites to play for the SEC crown, but both teams were on a bye in Week 10.

No. 11 Georgia (34%) continues to be the most likely spoiler, even if the Bulldogs barely escaped being gator bait. No. 13 Ole Miss (23%) maintained position in fourth place after a more comfortable win over No. 59 South Carolina.

The result with the biggest impact on the SEC race was No. 14 Texas' win over No. 20 Vanderbilt. The Longhorn's (22%) improved their odds to reach the SEC title game by almost six percentage points while the Commodores are now effectively out of the race.

In Big 12 action, No. 5 Texas Tech moved into first place on my conference leaderboard following a 23-point win at No. 44 Kansas State. The Red Raiders (82% odds to reach the Big 12 Championship Game) were able to leapfrog idle No. 10 BYU (76%).

No. 4 Utah (21%) is the most likely spoiler after a decisive win after dark against No. 45 Cincinnati (12%). The Bearcats remain in fourth place due in large part to the upset loss by No. 33 Houston (1.3%) at the hands of No. 76 West Virginia.

The ACC race was thrown into more chaos this weekend as favorite No. 42 Georgia Tech was upset at No. 57 North Carolina State and No. 9 Miami lost at No. 40 SMU. 

As a result, Georgia Tech slipped to third place on my conference leaderboard with a 37% chance to reach the conference championship game. Miami (4.2%) dropped to seventh place while SMU (22%) rose up to fourth.

The new leader with the best odds to reach the ACC Championship Game is No. 34 Virginia (51%) thanks to a win over No. 78 California. No. 35 Louisville (38%) moved into second place by a nose thanks to a win at No. 80 Virginia Tech.

Rounding out the current ACC top five is No. 47 Duke (31%) which scored an upset win at No. 58 Clemson.

Finally, Table 6 gives an update on the teams from the Group of Five which are hot in pursuit for a automatic spot in the college football playoff.

Table 6: Group of Five Leaderboard following the action of Week 10.

Members of the American Athletic Conference (AAC) continue to beat up on one another, which makes the race for the Group of Five playoff spot still hard to handicap, even in Week 10. No. 49 Tulane (4%) dropped from the top of the chart down to seventh place following a loss on the road to No. 71 Texas San Antonio.

No. 28 North Texas (23%) has the best current odds of the AAC members after a win over No. 81 Navy. Idle No. 32 South Florida (20%) has the second-best AAC odds.

No. 25 East Carolina (6%) and No. 41 Memphis (4%) both posted wins this week against No. 86 Temple and No. 122 Rice, respectively, but my computer has both teams with long odds to win the conference.

Most notably, No. 15 San Diego State (28%) has ascended to the top of the Group of Five leaderboard following another convincing Mountain West conference win, this time against No. 70 Wyoming. The Aztec have a solid chance to run the table and finish 11-1, but a relatively poor strength of schedule could still keep them out of the playoffs.

James Madison (12%) from the Sun Belt is also still in the hunt for a possible playoff bid after a 32-point road win at No. 89 Texas State.

Against all odds we have made it to the end for today. I will be back later in the week for another installment of Bad Betting Advice. As for this week, there is nothing more to say, other than this: