Against All Odds, 2025 Week 11: Battery, 100%

Every once in a while, it is nice to get a little break. Even in the best of times, it is good to take a weekend off from even our favorite hobbies. A change of scenery is a good chance to relax, reflect, and to recharges ones batteries.

For fans of Michigan State athletics, this past weekend provided the perfect respite from what has been a surprisingly difficult fall. 

The good vibes started on Friday night as the No. 1 ranked Spartan hockey team defeated No. 3 Penn State in overtime in front of a raucous crowd at Munn Ice Arena. On Saturday afternoon, the Spartan icers completed the sweep with a dominating 5-0 performance.

The icing on the cake was the first big win of the young basketball season as the No. 22 ranked men's basketball team outlasted No. 15 Arkansas and legendary coach John Calipari at the Breslin Center.

Michigan State's women's volleyball team picked up two wins over the weekend and the women's basketball team defeated Eastern Michigan on Sunday. The women's soccer team was just a penalty shootout short of claiming the Big Ten Tournament title.

Overall it was a great sports weekend. Even the Lions won on Sunday. But perhaps the best news of all is that the Michigan State football team did not lose for the first time since September.

All sarcasm aside, the bye week also provided a much needed chance for the football team to recharge as well. With just three weeks left in the regular season, there is still plenty to play for, and the mission could not be more clear. 

Michigan State must win the final three games of the season to quality for a bowl game. If the Spartans can pull that off, it would provide a much needed jolt of electricity to the flagging program. 

I am sure that there are a lot of fans out there that do not believe the Spartans have the juice to win one, let alone three more games. A lot of people believe the battery is already dead. As we will see below, the odds for Michigan State to turn this around are long.

But I still have faith that a path to bowl game does exist. It is a long season and anything can happen on any given Saturday. Michigan State will be the fresher team in all three of the remaining contests, and there are reasons for optimism in each matchup.

Sometimes all it takes is a little bit of rest and a spark for the lightbulb to turn back on. 

Week 11 Betting Results

Let's take a look at the performance of last week's picks from my Bad Betting Advice article, starting with the overview summary shown below in Figure 1. More information about how to read this figure can be found in the Week One edition of Against All Odds.

Figure 1: Results of Week 11 showing the actual point differentials relative to the opening spread.

A total of nine teams overachieved by beating the spread by more than 14 points. This list includes Notre Dame, South Florida, Southern Methodist, and Texas A&M. No team won but failed to cover the spread by 14 points or more.

A total of 15 teams were upset in Week 11, which is in line with the value of 14.4 that I predicted last week. Table 1 below summarizes those upsets and compares them to the picks made last week.

Table 1: Upsets in Week 11 based on the opening Vegas line compared to the upset projections from last week.

The two biggest upsets were California over Louisville (-18.5) and Sam Houston State over Oregon State (-18.5). Wisconsin's upset over Washington (-10.5) was the other double-digit upset this weekend 

Other notable upsets include UConn over Duke (-8.5), Iowa State over TCU (-6.5), Tulane over Memphis (-6.5), Wake Forest over Virginia (-6.5), Hawaii over San Diego State (-4.5), and Kentucky over Florida (-3).

My algorithm went just 1-5 (16.7%) on the week which brings the year to-date-performance to 34-46 (42.5%). ESPN's Football Power Index made only two picks, but they were both wrong. This makes the year-to-date record 17-28 (38%) for the FPI.

Table 2 below gives the results of the computers' picks against the opening spread.

Table 2: Results of the highlighted picks against the spread for Week 11.

My algorithm went 0-2 (0%) on the recommended bets, bringing the year-to-date performance to 30-29 (51%). My analysis of the FPI data resulted in just one pick against the spread, which was also wrong. This leaves the year-to-date tally at 20-16 (56%).

Considering all 51 games this weekend, my computer went 19-32 (37%) against the opening spread, bringing the year-to-date total to 278-289 (49%). The FPI performed a bit better. It went 25-26 (49%) against the spread which brings the year-to-date performance to 266-301 (47%).

Table 3 below gives the results of the point total bets for Week 11.

Table 3: Results of the recommended point total bets ("over/under") for Week 11.

Ironically, the point total bets were the lone bright spot in my betting advice for this week. Both the overall picks and the locks went 6-4 (60%).

As a result the year-to-date performance for the locks is now at 23-25 (48%). The overall performance for my set of recommended point-total bets is now to 76-84 (48%). 

Updated Big Ten Odds and Expected Wins

Following the results of Week 11, I have re-run the full season Monte Carlo simulation using the updated power rankings, including the current uncertainty in those rankings, to update the season odds for each team. 

Table 4 below gives the update for the Big Ten conference and Table 5 shows the updated Big Ten win distribution matrix.

Note that all the rankings listed in the table and mentioned below refer to my computer's power rankings and not any of the national polls.

Table 4: Updated Big Ten rankings, expected wins, strengths of schedule and season odds following Week 11.

Table 5: Updated Big Ten win distribution matrix after Week 11.

No. 1 Ohio State recovered from a slow start to easily handle No. 68 Purdue on the road. No. 2 Indiana had a much, much closer call on the road at No. 18 Penn State. The Hoosiers needed a nearly miraculous catch in the back of the endzone to secure the come-from-behind win.

Regardless, both Indiana (99%) and Ohio State (83%) continue to be heavy favorites meet in the Big Ten Championship Game in four weeks. Both are also virtually guaranteed a spot in the college football playoffs (over 99% odds).

No. 4 Oregon continues to be the most likely spoiler (13% odds) after the Ducks completed their own come-from-behind victory in the rain at No. 16 Iowa. The Ducks continue to be in a strong position (84% odds) to secure a playoff berth as well.

My current simulation give only two other teams a realistic chance to sneak into the Big Ten Championship Game. No. 14 USC (3.3%) is one of them, thanks to this weekend's win over No. 53 Northwestern. Idle No. 21 Michigan (2.7%) is the other.

USC (21%) and Michigan (9.5%) are also both still alive for a possible playoff bid. Idle No. 19 Illinois (3.6%), and Iowa (2.9%) also have faint playoff hopes.

Prior to this weekend, No. 36 Washington had an outside chance to reach the playoffs. But the Huskies took an upset loss on the road to No. 81 Wisconsin. Now Washington is simply playing to improve bowl game positioning.

In other Big Ten action, No. 54 Nebraska picked up a road win at No. 73 UCLA and No. 66 Rutgers protected home field against No. 62 Maryland. As a result of Scarlet Knights' win, it is now likely that neither Rutgers (23% odds) nor Maryland (25%) will get to six wins and bowl eligibility.

Remaining Schedule for Michigan State

With the Spartans idle, very little changed regarding the season prospects.

Michigan State still needs to run the table to qualify for a bowl game, and the odds of that feat are just 2.3%. The expected season win total for the Spartans is unchanged at 3.80.

Figure 2 below gives my computer's updated projections for the point spreads and victory odds for the Spartans' remaining three games. As a reference, the projected odds from my preseason calculations are also shown in Figure 2 along with the values from last week.

Figure 2: Updated odds and spread projections for Michigan State's remaining games, following Week Eight and based on a 40,000 cycle Monte Carlo simulation. The odds calculated last week are shown as a reference.

Penn State had a strong showing against Indiana, but still lost. The biggest question is the current emotional state of the Nittany Lions. 

My simulations project that Penn State should be an 11.5-point favorite next weekend, but the spread appears to have opened with the Lions favored by just seven points. It is certainly possible that Penn State used up all remaining energy in the failed attempt to beat the No. 2 team in the country last weekend.

Michigan State still projects as about a 17.5 point underdog on the road at Iowa. The Hawkeyes will make the long trek to southern California this weekend after a last-second, hard-fought loss to Oregon. Michigan State is in perfect trap-game position.

The Maryland Terrapins appear to have started their annual late-season slide with this weekend's double-digit loss at Rutgers. Maryland now projects to be just a 1.0-point favorite in the Ford Field finale with the Spartans. 

Maryland has a road game at Illinois and a home game versus Michigan over the next two weeks which likely means the Terrapins will come to Detroit with seven losses and nothing more to play for.

National Overview

Let's take a quick spin around the country and get an update on the battery of other action over the weekend. Table 5 below is my updated college football playoff leaderboard following Week 11. 

The teams are listed in order of my projected odds for each team to make the playoffs. I have also included my power ranking, strength of resume, strength of schedule, conference championship odds, and national title odds, all based on the most recent results of my full-season simulation.

Table 5: College Football playoff leaderboard following the action of Week 11.

In SEC action, No. 9 Alabama continues the slow march to the SEC Championship Game, this time at the expense of No. 17 LSU. The Crimson Tide have an 83% chance to reach the title game.

No. 7 Texas A&M (54%) is still the most likely opponent for Alabama after the Aggies survived a trip to No. 30 Missouri. 

No. 10 Georgia (36%) won at No. 35 Mississippi State and continue to be the most likely spoiler. Idle No. 13 Texas (15%) is still in the race, along with No. 11 Ole Miss (12%), but the top three are starting to pull away.

Texas A&M (99%), Alabama (83%), Ole Miss (84%), and Georgia (80%) all appear playoff bound. Texas (45%), Oklahoma (36%), and Vanderbilt (18%) are also in the mix for a playoff spot.

In Big 12 action, there was only one game of consequence as No. 3 Texas Tech handed the No. 15 BYU Cougars their first loss of the season. The Red Raiders (97%) have virtually clinched a spot in the Big 12 Championship Game where BYU (62%) is likely to get a chance at revenge.

Both Texas Tech (87%) and BYU (77%) are in solid shape for playoff bids. The third-best Big 12 team, No. 5 Utah (33%) more likely than not will just miss out of a playoff spot.

The ACC continues to entertain as three potential conference contenders stumbled this week. No. 49 Virginia was is solid position to play for the ACC Title, but a home loss to No. 61 Wake Forest has dropped the Cavaliers (24%) to fourth place on my ACC Leaderboard.

Similarly, No. 47 Louisville (12%) dropped to sixth place after losing at home to No. 82 California. As a result, idle No. 37 Georgia Tech (51%) is back on top with the best odds to reach the ACC Title game.

No. 52 Duke (42%) is up to second place, despite a non-conference upset loss at No. 83 UConn. All of this is good news for No. 34 SMU (41%) which is now back in the race after a big win at No. 116 Boston College. Idle No. 28 Pittsburgh (21%) also has a shot, essentially by default.

The ACC will almost certainly being sending no more than one team to the college football playoffs.

Finally, Table 6 gives an update on the teams from the Group of Five which are vying for a automatic spot in the college football playoff.

Table 6: Group of Five Leaderboard following the action of Week 11.

In the biggest game of the week in Group of Five action, No. 46 Tulane upset No. 48 Memphis at home which effectively knocks Memphis out of American Athletic Conference (AAC) and playoff contention.

The other notable Group of Five result was No. 27 San Diego State's loss at No. 80 Hawaii which effectively ends any chance of the eventual Mountain West Champion of sneaking into the playoffs.

The AAC is still the most likely conference to produce a playoff team and there are still four primary contenders. My computer is giving the best current odds to No. 24 North Texas (69% odds to reach the AAC title game) and No. 25 South Florida (65%). No. 31 East Carolina (33%) and No. 46 Tulane (22%) are also both in play.

North Texas was idle this week while South Florida picked up a win over No. 75 Texas San Antonio and East Carolina crushed No. 134 Charlotte.

But don't sleep on No. 40 James Madison from the Sun Belt. I currently give the Dukes a 64% chance to win the conference and a 19% chance to earn a playoff berth.

There is also an increasingly likely scenario where the champion of both the AAC and the Sun Belt end up higher ranked in the final college football poll than the ACC champion. In this case the Group of Five would get two playoff spots and the ACC would get shutout completely. 

My most recent simulation says that there is an 18% chance of this coming to pass.

Against all odds we have made it to the end for today. I had just enough juice to power through to the end. After another quick recharge, I will be back later in the week for another installment of Bad Betting Advice.