Against All Odds, 2025 Week 13: Decisions

College football is a sport that relies a lot on decisions. When building a team, coaches have to decide which high school and transfer portal inhabitants to target. Then, they have to wait for the prospects to decide which schools to attend.

Once the roster is assembled and the games are played, coaches make a myriad of decisions as to which players to send out onto the field and which plays to call in any given situation. 

Should the defense play press man coverage or quarters zone? Should they blitz or should they drop seven players into coverage?

Should the offense run or pass on third down and three to go? Should they go for it on fourth-and-two near midfield, or should they tell the quarterback to punt the ball? Speaking of punting, should they punt the ball to the more dangerous return man in Iowa football history or should they punt it out of bounds?

Decisions, decisions, decisions. 

Good leadership is often simply the ability to make the "right" decision more often than not. Good coaches are, by definition, good leaders.

For the eighth time in a row the Michigan State Spartans football team failed to make enough good decisions and failed to execute well enough to secure a win. 

The Spartans held a 10-point lead with 12 minutes remaining and a seven-point lead with 90 seconds remaining and still managed to lose in regulation. It was yet another painful loss in the midst of another painful season.

Now, it is up to Michigan State athletic director J Batt to make a decision. Will he give head coach Jonathan Smith one more year to try to turn things around, or will he decide to initiate the third coaching search in East Lansing since 2019?

I can honestly see this decision going either way. Jonathan Smith is a proven winner who was the top choice to take over the program two short years ago. I do not think that two years is enough time to decide if he is the right man for the job. If I add to this the terrible luck with injuries and the general chaos in the NIL space, I tend to believe that a lot of the programs with Michigan State football do not entirely fall at the feet of Smith.

Furthermore, I am actually encouraged be the way Michigan State competed in the last two weeks. Despite the ugly record, Penn State is a talented team that was ranked in the top three to start the season for a reason. The Nittany Lions absolutely dismantled Nebraska last weekend. Two weeks ago, the Spartans trailed Penn State by merely four points with less than five minutes to play.

Michigan State was a 17-point underdog on the road on Iowa's senior day with no postseason left to play for. The Hawkeyes beat Penn State and went toe-to-toe with both Indiana and Oregon. And yet the Spartans led that team by two scores deep into the fourth quarter. 

In last week's Bad Betting Advice preview, I asked the Spartans simply to show some heart and to play with grit and pride. That did that in spades. That is a sign of a strong culture and strong leadership, even if the final score board doesn't show it.

But it is also true that the score board is the ultimate judge of coaching success, and Jonathan Smith has accumulated far too few wins on his resume since arriving in East Lansing. Fair or not, football is big business where results matter.

Ultimately, I cannot claim to know what is the right decision. Will the Michigan State program be in a healthier place in one, two, or three years with a new staff or with Smith? That is the decision that Batt needs to make, and he needs to make it soon.

It's now decision time.

Week 13 Betting Results

Let's take a look at the performance of last week's picks from my Bad Betting Advice article, starting with the overview summary shown below in Figure 1. More information about how to read this figure can be found in the Week One edition of Against All Odds.

Figure 1: Results of Week 13 showing the actual point differentials relative to the opening spread.

A total of 15 teams overachieved by beating the spread by more than 14 points. This list includes Notre Dame, South Carolina, Wake Forest, SMU, Washington, North Texas, Arizona State, Arizona, Vanderbilt, Penn State, Tennessee, Iowa State, and Tulane. LSU was the only team that won but failed to cover the spread by 14 points or more, but Iowa and Utah were also right on the cusp of underachievement.

A total of 13 teams were upset in Week 15, which is spot on the value of  14.8 that I predicted last week. Table 1 below summarizes those upsets and compares them to the computers' forecasts.

Table 1: Upsets in Week 13 based on the opening Vegas line compared to the upset projections from last week.

Based on the opening spread, the biggest upset was Tulsa over Army (-10.5). Other notable upsets include Wisconsin over Illinois (-9), North Carolina State over Florida State (-5), Pittsburgh over Georgia Tech (-3), and TCU over Houston (-2).

My algorithm was a perfect 3-0 for upset picks which brings the year to-date-performance to a decisively good 40-48 (45.5%). ESPN's Football Power Index went 3-1 (75%) for the week. This makes the FPI's year-to-date record 20-30 (40%).

Table 2 below gives the results of the computers' picks against the opening spread.

Table 2: Results of the highlighted picks against the spread for Week 13.

There was just a single recommended pick on the board in Week 13 and my algorithm got it right. This brings the year-to-date performance to 32-29 (52.5%). The FPI held steady with no picks leaving the year-to-date tally at 20-16 (56%).

Considering all 60 games this weekend, my computer went 30-30 (50%) against the opening spread, bringing the year-to-date total to 345-340 (50.4%). The FPI did not perform quite as well. It went 28-32 (46.7%) which brings the year-to-date performance to 326-359 (48%).

Table 3 below gives the results of the point total bets for Week 13.

Table 3: Results of the recommended point total bets ("over/under") for Week 13.

My computer went just 1-4 (20%) on the lock picks and 2-4 (33.3%) overall. As a result the year-to-date performance for the locks is now at decisively bad 24-31 (44%). The overall performance for my set of recommended point-total bets is now to 79-89 (47%). 

I need to look at the methodology that I use to make these picks over the offseason and make some decisions regarding whether or not to give it another year or make a change to the algorithm. Why does that phrase sound so familiar?

Updated Big Ten Odds and Expected Wins

Following the results of Week 12, I have re-run the full season Monte Carlo simulation using the updated power rankings, including the current uncertainty in those rankings, to update the season odds for each team. 

Table 4 below gives the update for the Big Ten conference and Table 5 shows the updated Big Ten win distribution matrix.

Note that all the rankings listed in the table and mentioned below refer to my computer's power rankings and not any of the national polls.

Table 4: Updated Big Ten rankings, expected wins, strengths of schedule and season odds following Week 13.

Table 5: Updated Big Ten win distribution matrix after Week 13.

No. 1 Ohio State won, as expected, versus Rutgers and continues to be on a collision course with No. 2 Indiana in the Big Ten Championship Game. 

No. 4 Oregon scored a decisive win over No. 15 USC to maintain position as the next most likely team to reach the conference title game. At the same time, USC was eliminated from contention.

No. 18 Michigan also was able to stay in the race thanks to a big win at No. 65 Maryland.

The Buckeye and Hoosiers would both clinch a berth to the conference championship with a win next weekend. If Michigan were to upset Ohio State, Oregon would need to win at Washington in order to secure a spot in the Big Ten Championship Game. If both Michigan and Washington were to win, Michigan would earn a spot in the title game.

All of these scenarios assume that Indiana beats Purdue on Friday night. A highly unlikely Boilermaker upset introduces a few other scenarios which, if combined with a Michigan upset over Ohio State, would result in Michigan facing either Oregon or Ohio State in the title game.

In other Big Ten action, No. 52 Northwestern beat No. 68 Minnesota to secure a bowl bid and No. 13 Penn State destroyed No. 56 to put the Nittany Lions in position to earn a bowl big next week at No. 66 Rutgers.

In addition, No. 26 Washington had no trouble with No. 77 UCLA while No. 65 Wisconsin upset No. 21 Illinois. 

But with the overall Big Ten bowl landscape essentially settled, these results have minimal impact on the big picture. As Table 5 shows, 11 conference teams, plus next week's winner between Penn State and Rutgers will play in the post season. The other five Big Ten teams will not.

Remaining Schedule for Michigan State

With the heartbreaking loss to Iowa, Michigan State falls to 3-8 on the season. Next weekend, the Spartans will have a solid chance to get to 4-8 against flagging Maryland. 

The Terrapins have scored just 14 points per game in the month of November while allowing 40 points per game. My computer projected that Michigan State would be favored by about one point, but the actual Vegas line on Sunday opened with the Spartans favored by four points.

There is a solid chance that Michigan State can at least end the season on a positive note.

National Overview

Let's take a quick spin around the country and get an update on the other action over the weekend. Table 5 below is my updated college football playoff leaderboard following Week 13. 

This is a slightly different view than I usually provide. In this case I am listing the teams based on the order of my college football playoff rankings formula. The table also includes my power ranking, strength of resume, strength of schedule, and the projected final metrics and final rankings, assuming the favored teams all win out.

Table 5: College Football playoff leaderboard following the action of Week 13.

All of the SEC contenders faced non-conference opponents this week, but several teams with playoff aspirations played as well.

No. 6 Oklahoma won a defensive battle with No. 32 Missouri and remain in solid position to reach the playoffs. No. 16 Vanderbilt, No. 17 Texas, and No. 20 Tennessee also all had good weekends thanks to wins and covers over No. 31 Kentucky, No. 37 Arkansas, and No. 57 Florida. 

All three teams are longshots to reach the playoffs, with Texas likely having the best chance due to an opportunity to notch a high-quality win next week against Texas A&M.

In Big 12 action, No. 14 BYU won and covered at No. 51 Cincinnati to get one step closer to the conference title game. In the process, the Bearcats were also eliminated, as was No. 36 Houston due to an upset loss to No. 44 TCU.

BYU and No. 3 Texas Tech just need to win next week as double-digit favorite to secure a rematch with each other in the Big 12 Championship Game. BYU will likely need to win that game in order to secure a playoff spot, despite being ranked No. 7 in my current playoff ranking.

If either BYU or Texas Tech were to lose next week, No. 8 Utah and No. 43 Arizona State both have potential paths to the conference title game and therefore the playoffs. The Utes had a frantic, come-from-behind win against No. 38 Kansas State while the Sun Devils earned a decisive win over No. 71 Colorado.

In the ACC, No. 54 Georgia Tech was upset by No. 33 Pittsburgh and the Yellowjackets are now a extreme longshot to make the ACC Championship Game. In addition, No. 25 SMU demolished No. 58 Louisville.

As a result, SMU and idle No. 41 Virginia need to win next week and they will face each other in the conference title game. If either lose, No. 9 Miami, Pittsburgh, and No. 59 Duke all still have a path to the title game. The Hurricanes put themselves into this position thanks to a win at No. 84 Virginia Tech while the Blue Devils won at No. 87 North Carolina.

Finally, Table 6 gives an update on the teams from the Group of Five which are vying for a automatic spot in the college football playoff.

Table 6: Group of Five Leaderboard following the action of Week 13.

The biggest result in the Group of Five this weekend was No. 49 East Carolina's loss to Texas San Antonio. Meanwhile, No. 27 North Texas and No. 46 Tulane were able to win at No. 116 Rice and No. 92 Temple, respectively.

The American Athletic Conference uses an odd tiebreaker procedure that relies on the college football playoff rankings and other computer rankings, which gives Tulane the upper hand as the only Group of Five team in the most recent rankings.

Up to this point, I have been using the standard tiebreaker procedure used by the other conferences in order to estimate the AAC conference odds.

If both North Texas and Tulane win next week, those two teams will almost certainly meet for the AAC title. If one were to lose, No. 76 Navy could play themselves into the conference title game with an upset win over No. 47 Memphis.

In the case of a multi-team tie for first or second place, it appears that a composite computer ranking will decide one or both of the title game participants. That could be good news for a team such as No. 30 South Florida, but it is difficult to predict.

If Tulane wins the AAC, the Green Wave will almost certainly be given the No. 12 seed in the college football playoffs. But if another AAC teams wins the championship, there is still a chance that No. 35 James Madison or No. 23 San Diego State could slip into the field.

James Madison barely escaped with a win over No. 40 Washington State this week while San Diego State won and covered versus No. 122 San Jose State.

Against all odds we have made it to the end for today. I will be back later in the week for another installment of Bad Betting Advice if you decide to tune in. I hope that you do.