Bad Betting Advice, 2025 Week 12: Once More, With Feeling

The 2025-2036 Big Ten and college football season has reached the final stretch. After a much needed break last weekend, Michigan State football is back and ready to take to the gridiron once more. While many have left the Spartans for dead, they are still standing, and there is still a chance to resurrect this season. But the Spartans will have to walk through the fire to do it.

Up this week is the Penn State Nittany Lions in the final game at Spartans Stadium. If you would have told me back in August that the Spartans and Lions would be coming into the game with identical conference records and that the game would have post season implications, it would have hit a bit differently.

Instead of Penn State fighting for a possible Big Ten Title and playoff seeding, the Nittany Lions and Spartans are both simply trying to stave off elimination from bowl eligibility.

The last several weeks have been an emotional roller coaster. Both teams remain in the free fall part of the ride, waiting to bottom out. Someone has to win by default this weekend, so one team will experience the sweet taste of victory for the first time in over a month. 

On paper, Penn State is the more talented team and is therefore more likely to win this game, but I have got a theory as to why that might not be the case.

To return to the roller coast analogy, while both teams have experienced sharp a decline, Penn State has fallen from a great height. It stands to reason that the negative momentum is greater for the Lions than it is for the Spartans. 

Furthermore, Penn State is coming off three loses at Iowa, at Ohio State, and a heart-breaker at home to Indiana. There is a very real possibility that the Nittany Lions emptied the tank last week and will physically and emotionally be running on empty.

Football and sports in general, especially at the college level, can often come down to passion and emotion. What each team is feeling this week could be the deciding factor. I question if Penn State will be feeling like there is anything left to play for.

As for Michigan State, the Spartans showed clear signs of life two weeks ago at Minnesota. Despite the overtime loss, Michigan State outplayed the Golden Gophers. Quarterback Alessio Milivojevic did provide a much needed spark to the Spartan offense. After a week of rest, on senior day, it is possible that we will all learn together on Saturday that the Spartans are already on an emotional upswing.

If my theory is correct, Michigan State could give fans something to sing about this weekend. A win would get the hopes for a bowl bid and maybe even a winning season alive. Next week's game at Iowa City would suddenly become a lot more interesting.

But if Michigan State cannot get the win this Saturday, it would essentially drive a stake through the heart of the Spartans and possibly the Jonathan Smith era. Failing to reach a bowl game for the fourth straight season would feel like a swan dive into the abyss.

The rest of the season would become an exercise in going through the motions, leaving fans with the singular question: "where do we go from here?"

Michigan State Prediction

The Michigan State/Penn State series includes a total of 38 games stretching back to 1914. Penn State currently holds a very narrow edge overall, 19-18-1.

Prior to Penn State joining the Big Ten in the early 1990s, the Spartan dominated the series. Michigan State posted a record of 8-1-1 against the Nittany Lions in the early years with eight of the 10 contests occurring between 1945 and 1966.

In Big Ten play, Penn State holds a clear 18-10 edge, but the series has been very competitive more recently. Michigan State has won six of the last 11 games over the past 15 years, including three upset wins in 2017, 2018, and 2021.

Notably, the winning team has covered the spread in every game played this century.

The spread for this year's game opened with Penn State favored by 6.5 points. Historically, this line suggests that Michigan State has a one-in-three (33%) chance to get the much needed upset win.

ESPN's Football Power Index has the Nittany Lions favored by a little over nine points. My algorithm is even less optimistic. It has Penn State favored by 14.4 points. Therefore, my official prediction is a final score of Penn State 35, Michigan State 20. 

As for the Dr. Green and White vibe check, this one is particularly hard to handicap. I do believe that Michigan State has a very real chance to get the upset win. As discussed above, there is reason to believe that the emotional intangibles could land heavily in favor of the Green and White.

But betting on feelings instead of data is rarely a good idea. On paper, Penn State is a far more talented team. My computer is most likely correct.

Big Ten Overview

Table 1 below gives a full summary of the action in the Big Ten in Week 12, including my projected scores, the opening point spread, and the computers' projected point differentials. 

Table 1: Summary of Big Ten action in Week 12, including my algorithms' projected scores. The teams shaded in green are projected to cover by my algorithm. The teams shaded red are projected to cover by the FPI.

The top three teams in the conference are all at home and are all 20-point favorites this week. No. 1 Ohio State (-30.5) hosts No. 73 UCLA, No. 2 Indiana (-29.5) hosts No. 81 Wisconsin, and No. 4 Oregon (-23.5) hosts No. 69 Minnesota. With the exception of the FPI's view of Wisconsin, the computers like the home teams to cover.

No. 36 Washington and No. 19 Illinois are both bowl eligible, but very unlikely to make the playoffs. Both teams are also double-digit favorites at home versus No. 68 Purdue (+17) and No. 62 Maryland (+14), respectively. My computer likes Illinois to cover, but otherwise the machine like the road teams against the spread.

The remaining two game have more interesting consequences for the conference and national landscape. No. 21 Michigan still has long odds to reach the Big Ten Championship Game (2.8%) and even the playoffs (9.5%). But those odds will both likely drop to zero if the Wolverines do not get past No. 52 Northwestern (+9.5) at Wrigley Field. Both computers project that this game will be closer than Vegas expects.

The most interesting conference game features No. 16 Iowa at No. 14 USC (-7). The Trojans are also long shots to sneak into the Big Ten title game (3.2%), but a win over the Hawkeyes keeps USC in the playoff conversation.

No. 54 Nebraska has the week off.

Other Notable National Action

Table 2 below summarizes the notable action elsewhere in the college football landscape in Week 12.

Table 2: Summary of other notable action in Week 12 including my algorithms' projected scores.

Five SEC teams have one or fewer conference losses, and all five are still in contention for the league title. The biggest game of the week features No. 13 Texas at No. 10 Georgia (-6.5). The loser will absorb a second conference loss and will effectively drop out of the conference race. The computers like the Longhorns to cover but not enough to get the upset.

No. 9 Alabama also faces a stiff challenge as No. 8 Oklahoma (+7.5) comes to town. Similarly, the computers like the Sooners to cover but not to win.

Undefeated No. 7 Texas A&M is expected to have an easier time at home against No. 58 South Carolina (+19.5). No. 11 Ole Miss is also a double digit favorite at home versus No. 55 Florida (+13).

In Big 12 action, No. 3 Texas Tech has all but locked up a spot in the conference title game (97% odds) and the Red Raiders are unlikely to be challenged this week versus No. 65 UCF (+24).

No. 15 BYU is in solid shape to join Texas Tech in the Big 12 Championship Game. The Cougars will be one step closer if they can get a win over No. 38 TCU (+6). If BYU were to stumble, No. 5 Utah is in the best shape to take advantage. The Utes are on the road this week at No. 56 Baylor (+8.5).

Every time an ACC team appears to surge into the lead in the conference race, they seem to manage to trip over their shoelaces the following week. As a result, there are five teams tied in the loss column at the top of the standings, each with between a 20% and 50% chance to reach the conference title game.

Two of those five teams square off in Week 12 as No. 52 Duke hosts No. 49 Virginia (+6). Both computers like the Cavaliers to cover but not to get the upset win. No. 37 Georgia Tech is poised to remain at the top of the ACC Leaderboard by virtue of drawing No. 116 Boston College (+15.5) on the road.

As for the two other primary ACC contenders, No. 34 SMU is off and No. 28 Pittsburgh is a sizable underdog at home to No. 6 Notre Dame (-10) in non-conference action.

In Group of Five action, the American Athletic Conference also has five teams tied in the loss column at the top of the standings. The current favorite, No. 24 North Texas is a double-digit favorite on the road versus No. 121 UAB (+18). No. 46 Tulane is also heavily favored at home against No. 112 Florida Atlantic (+15.5).

On paper, No. 25 South Florida at No. 86 Navy (+10) is a game featuring two of teams tied at the top of the standings. But the Midshipmen benefited from a very easy schedule to start the season. Navy is not expected to beat the Bulls or to compete for the AAC title. 

The best game in the Group of Five is No. 48 Memphis at No. 31 East Carolina (-2.5). Memphis is a game back in the standings and a long shot to reach the conference title game. The Pirates currently have third best conference odds and need the win to stay in the race.

Elsewhere, No. 40 James Madison could still play the role of playoff spoiler if the eventual AAC Champion takes too many loses. The Dukes are a 20-point favorite at home versus No. 105 Appalachian State.

It is also worth keeping an eye on Saturday night's Mountain West matchup between No. 27 San Diego State (-2.5) and No. 79 Boise State. Neither team is likely to work their way into the playoff, but it is a clash of the top two teams on my Mountain West Leaderboard.

Picks of the Week

The sections above highlighted several potential upsets and recommended picks against the spread. Figure 1 below gives an overview summary of all my computer's projections for the week in comparison to the opening Vegas spread. 

The same data generated by EPSN's Football Power Index (FPI) is shown in Figure 2.

Figure 1: Comparison of the projected final margins of victory based on my algorithm to the opening Vegas lines for Week 12.

Figure 2: Comparison of the projected final margins of victory based on ESPN's FPI to the opening Vegas lines for Week 12.

A brief explanation of how to read these figures can be found in Week One's Bad Betting Advice column. This week's upset picks (the games appearing to the left of the vertical red lines in both figures) are summarized below in Table 3.

Table 3: Summary of upset picks for Week 12.

My computer has five total upset pick recommendations this week, including Arizona over Cincinnati (-6.5), and MAC favorite Western Michigan over Ohio (-1). That game was played on Tuesday night and is already in the win column for my machine. The FPI has only one pick this week: Boise State over San Diego State (-1.5).

A simple simulation of the week's games suggests that a total of 14.6 plus-or-minus 3.2 upsets out of 58 games is most likely, which is slightly less than the rate predicted over the past several weeks.

The games shown above in Figures 1 and 2 which fall outside of either set of dashed diagonal lines make up the set of suggested bets against the spread. Those selections are summarized below in Table 4.

Table 4: Picks against the opening spread for Week 12. The picks are listed in order of confidence score

My algorithm has only one recommended pick against the spread: San Diego State to cover versus Boise State. Clearly the two computers view this Mountain West matchup quite differently.

My analysis of the FPI data results in no additional recommended bets against the spread.

Finally, Table 5 below summarizes my computer's recommended point total bets for the week.

Table 5: Recommended total points bets (over/under) for Week 12. Note the picks labeled as "locks" are at a higher level of confidence.

My computer recommends a total of three point-total bets this week, two of which meet the criteria as "locks."  Once again, the Boise State/San Diego State game is in the table. My computer foresees more than 41.5 points. 

My computer also likes Memphis and East Carolina to combine for less than 60.5 points and for Penn State and Michigan State to combine for more than 48.5 points.

That is all the advice I have for you this week. While I am not sure how to feel about Michigan State's chances, I will once more have my eyes glued to the television. Enjoy the games and check back early next week in Against All Odds to see how the picks above panned out.