As the 2025-26 Michigan State football season enters twilight, it would be easy to make the argument that there is nothing left for the Spartans to play for. The dreams of a late-season resurgence, a run to a bowl game, and maybe every a winning record were dashed last week as Michigan State fell to Penn State.
Uncertainty, rumors, and speculation about the future of the coaching staff are running rampant both on-line and in real life. To make matters worse, by some measure this weekend's contest on the road against Iowa is the third toughest game on the Spartans' schedule, behind only the road games at Indiana and at USC.
Had Michigan State defeated Penn State last week, the showdown with the Hawkeyes would have had taken on new meaning. The Spartans would have had momentum and would have suddenly felt good about themselves for the first time in weeks. In contrast, Iowa is a team coming off two grueling, close losses to Oregon and at USC last week, 1,800 miles from home.
Furthermore, the Hawkeyes travel next week to Lincoln to face their cross-border rivals from Nebraska. It is not a stretch to image Iowa looking ahead to that emotional contest with the Cornhuskers.
But in this timeline, it is easy to write off this week's game as a meaningly scrimmage between a team fighting for a second-tier bowl game and a team just trying to close out the season. Few would blame the Spartans if they were to phone it.
But the word on the street is that the morale in the Spartan locker room remains strong. The player are still locked in and ready to go to battle with one another, for each other, and for their coaches. What fans see on the field on Saturday to a large extent will be a test of this validity of these rumors.
What I want to see on Saturday is simple. I want to see the Spartans show some heart. I want to see them play with grit and pride. I want to see them hit hard, play smart, and execute the gameplan. I want to see them fight until the clock reads all zeros.
Sometimes in life the most underrated and underappreciated skill is the ability to show up and work hard, no matter the circumstances. Weeks like this one are the ultimate test of that skill. But are the Spartans equipped to pass that test?
If they are, there is no reason why this game cannot be competitive. Michigan State has applied game pressure to the majority of their Big Ten opponents well into the fourth quarter this year. For the reasons explained above, the Hawkeyes could be a quart low on motivation.
As we will see, the odds for a heartening upset win over Iowa are long. But as the old saying goes, if you put your head down and work hard, good things will happen. Spartans fans have been waiting for weeks for something, anything positive to happen on the gridiron. Maybe this week will be the week.
Would a win over Iowa cause some Spartan fans to have a change of heart about the direction and future of the program? Maybe. Maybe not. But if Michigan State pours their hearts out on the field in Iowa City Saturday afternoon, win or lose, it will say something powerful about the heart of the Spartans.
Michigan State Prediction
Michigan State and Iowa have faced each other a total of 50 times since the series kicked off in 1953. Iowa currently holds a narrow edge in total record at 25-23-2.
The Spartans held the advantage in early days of the series, posting a record of 10-5-1 in the first 16 meetings. The tables were turned over the next 20 years as Iowa posted a record of 11-5-1 from 1979 to 1999. The series has been relatively even in the 21st century, with neither team winning more than two consecutive regular season games since the mid 1990s.
Iowa holds an edge against the spread, 11-6-2 since 1995. A more rigorous analysis reveals that the home team generally wins in this series slightly more than expected, based on the spread.
Both teams also have two upset wins apiece since 2001, including the Spartans' 32-20 win in Spartans Stadium last season as a 5.5-point favorite.
As for this year's contest, Iowa opened as a 16.5-point favorite at home. Historically, this translates into just a 12% chance of a Spartan upset. The only time in the last 30 years that the spread has been over 10 points was when the Spartans were a 21.5-point favorite at home in 1999.
Iowa's previous largest spread against the Spartans was in 2023 when the Hawkeyes were favored by exactly 10 points and wound up winning by exactly that margin.
My heartless computer is once again less optimistic than Vegas about Michigan State's chances. My official projection is Iowa 35, Michigan State 14.
While I want to believe from the bottom on my hearth that the scenario I outlined above can happen, my head is telling my that my computer is most likely correct.
Big Ten Overview
Table 1 below gives a full summary of the action in the Big Ten in Week 13, including my projected
scores, the opening point spread, and the computers' projected point differentials.
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| Table 1: Summary of Big Ten action in Week 13, including my algorithms' projected scores. The teams shaded in green are projected to cover by my algorithm. The teams shaded red are projected to cover by the FPI. |
As the Big Ten race reaches the final two weeks, there are five teams still technically alive to win the conference. No. 1 Ohio State and No. 2 Indiana simply need to win out to secure spots in the Big Ten Championship Game.
The Buckeye are huge favorite versus Rutgers (+33.5) this week and Indiana is on a bye, so the fate of the two favorites will almost certainly be decided next week. For the three remaining challengers, they need to win this week to stay in the race.
That makes the biggest Big Ten game on he schedule No. 14 USC at No. 4 Oregon (-10). The loser will pick up conference loss No. 2 which will mathematically eliminate them from the race as long as Ohio State wins. The winner will then need to win again next week and root for either Ohio State or Indiana to lose.
The Ducks also need a win to stay in the race for a possible playoff spot. USC is currently a long shot to reach the playoffs, but a win over Oregon could put the Trojans in position to move far enough up in the rankings to claim a spot.
No. 21 Michigan also needs a win to stave off conference elimination. The Wolverines are on the road at No. 62 Maryland (-12). The computers both favor the Terrapins against the spread.
The remaining Big Ten games have minor bowl implications. No. 15 Penn State needs to win out to become bowl eligible. The Nittany Lions are current a 10-point favorite at home versus No. 57 Nebraska.
No. 56 Northwestern needs just one more win to become bowl eligible. The Wildcats are narrow favorites at home versus No. 68 Minnesota (+4).
The remaining two conference games feature teams that have already secured a place in the bowl season against a team that has already been eliminated. No. 28 Washington and No. 18 Illinois will attempt to pad their bowl resumes at No. 70 UCLA (+10) and at No. 77 Wisconsin (+9) respectively.
Other Notable National Action
Table 2 below summarizes the notable action elsewhere in the college football landscape in Week 13.
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| Table 2: Summary of other notable action in Week 13 including my algorithms' projected scores. |
There are four teams still alive in the SEC race, but all four are either on a bye or facing an FCS opponent this week. We will have to wait until next week to learn which two teams will square off for the conference title.
In Big 12 action, my math suggests that seven total teams still have a chance to reach the conference title game. That said, the odds for No. 32 Houston (0.9%) and No. 23 Arizona (0.2%) are both less than one percent.
No. 3 Texas Tech and No. 13 BYU can both win out and claim a spot in the Big 12 Championship Game. The Red Raiders have the week off, but BYU has a tricky road game at No. 48 Cincinnati (+2). The Bearcats have a slim (1.9%) chance to reach the conference title game making the contest a potential elimination game.
If either BYU or Texas Tech were to slip up over the next two weeks, No. 6 Utah and/or No. 50 Arizona State could play themselves into the conference title game. The Utes host No. 46 Kansas State (+16.5) while the Sun Devils traveling to No. 63 Colorado (+7.5).
A total of six ACC teams are still alive in the chase for the conference title and all six have at least a 10% chance to reach the Championship Game. No. 39 Virginia has the best overall odds, partially because the Cavaliers are on a bye this weekend.
No. 55 Georgia Tech hosts No. 37 Pittsburgh (+3) in what is also likely an elimination game. Both teams have just a single conference loss.
No. 35 SMU is the other one-loss ACC contender. The Mustangs host No. 47 Louisville (+3.5) in what is expected to be another close game.
No. 10 Miami and No. 60 Duke are a game back in the loss column and will need some help to reach the ACC Championship Game. Both teams will also need to survive road tests this week at No. 84 Virginia Tech (+16.5) and at No. 87 North Carolina (+6.5), respectively.
In the Group of Five, the leading candidate to make the playoffs is still likely the eventual American Athletic Conference Champion. As of today, five teams are still alive and have their hearts set on playing for a spot in the conference title game.
No. 26 North Texas has the best overall odds in the AAC. The Mean Green are 17.5-point favorites on the road at No. 118 Rice this weekend. No. 36 East Carolina has the next best odds, but the Pirates draw a tough road game at No. 64 Texas San Antonio (+3.0).
No. 53 Tulane is in a weak tiebreaker position and needs either North Texas or East Carolina to lose in order to earn a spot in the conference title game. Tulane also needs to win at No. 89 Temple (+8.5).
No. 73 Navy also controls their own destiny in the AAC, but the Midshipmen have the weekend off. No. 29 South Florida needs a lot of help to make the AAC Championship, and a win at No. 117 UAB (+21) is also required.
Regardless of the final result in the AAC, there is still a solid chance that the committee would opt for the champion from another Group of Five conference. No. 34 James Madison from the Sun Belt is the most likely candidate.
The one-loss Dukes have already clinched a spot in the Sun Belt Title games, but they will also need a win this weekend versus No. 40 Washington State (+13.5). My computer is forecasting a much closer game than the spread implies.
No. 24 San Diego State from the Mountain West has two losses and is therefore a long shot to reach the playoffs. The Aztecs are big favorites at home versus No. 120 San Jose State (+11.5).
Picks of the Week
The sections above highlighted several potential upsets and recommended picks against the spread.
Figure 1 below gives an overview summary of all my computer's projections for the week in comparison to the opening Vegas spread.
The same data generated by EPSN's Football Power Index (FPI) is shown in Figure 2.
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| Figure 1: Comparison of the projected final margins of victory based on my algorithm to the opening Vegas lines for Week 13. |
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| Figure 2: Comparison of the projected final margins of victory based on ESPN's FPI to the opening Vegas lines for Week 13. |
A brief explanation of how to read these figures can be found in Week One's Bad Betting Advice column. This week's upset picks (the games appearing to the left of the vertical red lines in both figures) are summarized below in Table 3.
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| Table 3: Summary of upset picks for Week 13. |
My computer has three upset picks this week, all of which involve Group of Five teams. The FPI agrees on one of those picks: Miami of Ohio over Buffalo, which did occur on Wednesday night.
The FPI give three addition upset pick suggestions including Stanford over California (-3) and TCU over Houston (-2).
A simple simulation of the week's games suggests that a total of 14.8 plus-or-minus 3.2 upsets out of 60 games is most likely.
The games shown above in Figures 1 and 2 which fall outside of either set of dashed diagonal lines make up the set of suggested bets against the spread. Those selections are summarized below in Table 4.
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Table 4: Picks against the opening spread for Week 13.
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Once again, there is only one game on the board and once again it is San Diego State to cover. The time, the opponent is San Jose State (+11.5).
Finally, Table 5 below summarizes my computer's recommended point total bets.
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| Table 5: Recommended total points bets (over/under) for Week 13. Note the picks labeled as "locks" are at a higher level of confidence. |
My computer recommends a total of six point-total bets, five of which meet the criteria as "locks." The only non-lock on the board is the "over" pick in the Miami of Ohio/Buffalo game which is also correct and already in the books.
The computer also likes the over on 42.5 points in the Michigan State/Iowa game, which seems unlikely. It also recommends taking the over in the Nebraska/Penn State game (44.5) and the Missouri/Oklahoma game (42.5).
That is all the advice I have for you this week. I hope that you will take my analysis and advice to heart. Enjoy the games and check back early next week in Against All Odds to see how the picks above panned out.
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