Bad Betting Advice, 2025 Week 14: Run it Back

As the final week of the 2025 regular season of college football looms, there is a lot to talk about in the broader landscape. In the sections below, I will highlight conference championship game tiebreaker scenarios and college football playoffs seeding.

But in East Lansing, there will be no post season this year. Once this week's game against the Maryland Terrapins puts all zeros on the clock, the season will be over. Spartans fans will need to wait another nine months to see the Green and White take the field again.

We can (and will) talk about the odds that Michigan State will notch their first Big Ten win, but we might as well address the elephant in the room. When the Spartans do take to the field again on Sept. 5 against Toledo, who is going to be the head coach?

There are two different ways to analyze this question. The first and most important question is what will happen. But unless your name is Michigan State Athletic Director J Batt, this question is irrelevant. In fact, I would wager that Batt himself has not made up his mind.

So while there are tons of fans and media members speculating on Smith's future, everyone is essentially guessing based on vibes. Nobody actually knows anything.

This leads to the second way to analyze the coaching situation in East Lansing and that is to ask the question: what should happen?

I have been thinking a lot about this topic over the past few weeks as I run back the events of the past two seasons in my head. While my opinion carries exactly zero weight, I will go ahead and share it:

I think that Jonathan Smith should return next year as the Spartans' head coach.

This is likely not a popular opinion, but based on the preponderance of evidence, I believe it to be the correct call. Here's why.

When Michigan State went through a coaching search two years ago, Smith quickly rose to the top of the list as the Plan-A target. Smith is a well-respected coach who took a struggling Oregon State program and rebuilt it such that the Beavers were highly competitive in the Pac-12.

Corvallis is a difficult place to win. The resources, tradition, and recruiting pull at Oregon State are tiny compared to a place like Michigan State. Yet Smith was able to win there. The man knows how to coach and he knows how to build a program. Those skills are absolutely transferable to East Lansing and to the Big Ten.

The idea that Smith suddenly forgot how to coach or is now over his head are simply laughable. Some may believe that the last two almost two full season demonstrate that Smith can never be successful at Michigan State University and therefore getting rid of him sooner rather than later is the only logical course of action. 

I simply do not believe that. Two years is simply not enough time to evaluate if a rebuild is working or not. I want more data in order to make an informed decision.

I believe are two different factors that are currently working against Smith as his team has struggled to a 3-8 record. First, Smith's process of rebuilding a team takes time. Second, Smith has not been very lucky in his two years in East Lansing.

To the first point, Smith's coaching philosophy has become clearer to me over the past few weeks as I have listened carefully to some of his public comments. His approach is one of consistent, even-keeled optimism. Work hard, follow the process, build relationships, and if you do these things right, good things will happen. His approach in Week One is exactly the same as it is on Thanksgiving weekend.

For Smith, process is everything. Good results come and go, but a robust process is what is needed for long-term success. Michigan State got a great result in 2021, but the results were not sustainable because the process was rotten underneath. The first step for Smith was to build a strong foundation and concrete takes a while to cure.

For me, the strongest indicator that things are subtlety moving the right direction is the way the Spartans have competed over the last several weeks. After stumbling through a loss against a beatable Wolverine team on Oct. 25, it would have been easy for the team to phone it in for the rest of the season. But they didn't.

They went to Minneapolis, played a hard-fought game against the Golden Gophers, but fell just short in overtime. After the bye week, the Spartans went toe-to-toe with a much more talented Penn State squad before the dam broke late in the fourth quarter. 

Then, with essentially nothing left to play for, Michigan State got off the mat one more time, went into  Iowa City, and outplayed the Hawkeyes for the vast majority of the game as 17-point underdogs. 

While it is true that the Spartans still lost in the end, the grit that the team showed was impressive. It speaks to a strong culture in the locker room in East Lansing. It shows that the foundation might be hardening. It means that Smith's long-term strategy is working.

That all said, close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades. Michigan State still lost all of those games. But to my second point, I would argue that so far the Spartans simply have not been a very lucky football team. While it is true that good, well-coached teams create their own luck, it is also true that bad luck sometime is just that.

If we were to run back the film from the 2025 season, we could point to perhaps a dozen plays over the year that if the ball bounced a slightly different way could have changed the outcome of the game. One more play was likely all that the Spartans would have needed to get wins at Minnesota and at Iowa.

But it is also hard to discount the impact of bad injury luck on Michigan State in the 2025 season as well. Week after week the pregame injury reports issued by the Big Ten for the Spartans resembles a CVS receipt.

While injuries are simply a part of college football that every team deals with, rebuilding teams simply have less margin for error on their rosters on the injury front than most teams. Just as an example, if Michigan State were to run back the full season with a healthy offensive line, I would wager that Spartans fans would currently be speculating about bowl destinations and not the future of Jonathan Smith.

Finally, anyone in the corporate world will tell you that hiring people is hard. For those that think Smith and company should be shown the door, please tell me who you think Michigan State should and can hire. Smith was the Plan A target two years ago and beleaguered Wisconsin coach Luke Fickle was the Plan A target in 2019. 

What makes you think that the Spartans will magically hire the next Curt Cignetti? What makes you think that Michigan State will suddenly give that next coach the resources to completely rebuild the roster once again, which will almost certainly be necessary if Smith is fired?

Do you feel lucky? I certainly do not. 

If Jonathan Smith's future in East Lansing were in my hands, my vote is to run it back one more time. 

Michigan State Prediction

Michigan State currently holds an 11-4 edge in the series with the Maryland Terrapins. The two schools played a total of five times from 1944 to 1950, with the Spartans taking four of those five early contests.

The schools did not meet again until 2014, following Maryland's admission to the Big Ten conference. The Spartans dominated the early portion of the Big Ten series as well, winning six of the first seven games from 2015 to 2021.

Maryland did manage to win two games in a row versus the Spartans in 2022 and 2023. But the Spartans struck back last year with a Week Two win in College Park that earned Jonathan Smith his first Big Ten win.

Against the spread, Michigan State is just 5-5 versus Maryland since the series restarted in 2014. Michigan State has performed slightly better than expectation against the Terrapins, with only one upset loss in 2016. 

The line for this weekend's game opened with the Spartans as a 4.5-point favorite on the semi-home "neutral" venue of Ford Field in Detroit. Michigan State has been a double-digit favorite in half of the recent contests with Maryland. This is the third time since 2014 that the Spartans have been favored, but by less than five points. Historically, this year's spread translates to a 63% chance that the Spartans will finally get a win. 

For the first time in several weeks, my computer also feels good about this game. It predicts a final score of Michigan State 26, Maryland 24.

I personally am very optimistic that the Spartans will rise up and finally get that first Big Ten win. I have been impressed with the fight that Michigan State has shown over the past two weeks. In contrast, Maryland is currently on a seven-game losing streak and the slope of their trajectory is clearly negative.

After a September road win at Wisconsin, the Terrapins proceeded to lose the next three games by a combined total of just 10 points. But since November, Maryland is getting outscored by an average score of 40-14. The closest game in the last month was a 15-point road loss at Rutgers.

This is a game that the Spartans need to win and should win. I believe that they will get the job done.

Big Ten Overview

Table 1 below gives a full summary of the action in the Big Ten in Week 14, including my projected 

scores, the opening point spreads, and the computers' projected point differentials. 

Table 1: Summary of Big Ten action in Week 14, including my algorithms' projected scores. The teams shaded in green are projected to cover by my algorithm. The teams shaded red are projected to cover by the FPI.

Entering the final weekend of Big Ten action, four teams are still alive for the Big Ten Championship Game. There are a total of five different potential title game matchups depending on the result of three of the nine conference games.

The most likely scenario (77% odds) is for Indiana to face Ohio State for the Big Ten title game. Both teams just need to win this weekend, and they are in. Indiana is a huge favorite on the road at Purdue (+28), while Ohio State is a smaller favorite on the road at Michigan (+10.5).

The other game that features prominently in Big Ten endgame is Oregon at Washington (+6.5), but this game only figures into the Big Ten race if Michigan upsets Ohio State. An Oregon win also would almost certainly lock up a playoff berth for the Ducks.

If Ohio State beats Michigan, the Buckeyes will face Indiana in the Big Ten Championship Game no matter what happens in the other two games. If Michigan upsets the Ohio State, four other scenarios are in play.

Most likely, Indiana is going to beat Purdue. A win by the Boilermakers would be the biggest upset of the season. Assuming the Hoosiers and Wolverines win, a win by Oregon at Washington would create an Indiana/Oregon Big Ten Championship Game. The odds of this scenario are just 15%.

If Washington and Michigan both get upset wins, Indiana would face Michigan in the Big Ten Championship Game. This scenario has odds of 7.2%.

If Purdue does upset Indiana on Friday night, two other scenarios are in play as long as Michigan also upsets Ohio State. If Oregon beats Washington, the Ducks would face Michigan in the conference title game (0.4% odds). If Washington beats Oregon, it would create a Ohio State/Michigan rematch for the Big Ten crown (0.2%).

The only other game with post-season implications is Penn State at Rutgers (+10.5). The winner gets to go to a bowl game while the loser does not.

The remaining four Big Ten games are just for bowl positioning and rivalry bragging rights. USC (-20.5) is a big favorite at home versus UCLA. Illinois (-7) is favored at home against Northwestern. Iowa (-5) is expected to get the road win at Nebraska.

The most competitive Big Ten game this week is expected to be Wisconsin at Minnesota (-1.5). ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) likes the Badgers for the upset win.

Other Notable National Action

Table 2 below summarizes the notable action elsewhere in the college football landscape in Week 14.

Table 2: Summary of other notable action in Week 14 including my algorithms' projected scores.

In the SEC, a total of four teams are still in play for the conference championship game. The results of three games that will determine the two participants. Only four different scenarios are possible.

The biggest game on the schedule is Texas A&M at Texas (+2.5). If the Aggies win on Friday night, they will finish the regular season undefeated and will play for an SEC Title. 

The Aggies' opponent would then be determined based on the outcome of Alabama (-5.5) at Auburn. If Alabama wins, the Crimson Tide would face Texas A&M (37% odds). If Auburn wins, Georgia would advance to the SEC title game (24% odds).

Georgia hosts Georgia Tech (+13) in non-conference play in a game that only impacts the Bulldogs playoff seed.

If Texas upsets Texas A&M, Georgia automatically earns a berth to the SEC Championship Game. In this scenario, Georgia would meet Alabama (28% odds) as long as the Tide beat Auburn.

If Texas and Auburn both win, the result of the Egg Bowl between Ole Miss (-8.5) and Mississippi State will determine Georgia's opponent. A win by Ole Miss would advance the Rebels to the conference title game (11% odds). but an upset by Mississippi State would allow Texas A&M to back into the SEC Championship Game.

In the Big 12, four teams are technically still in the race, but there is a 92% chance that Texas Tech will face BYU in the conference championship game. Both teams are in if they win this weekend and both teams are big favorites. Texas Tech (-20.5) is on the road at West Virginia and BYU (-18) hosts UCF.

If either BYU or Texas Tech were to lose, the tiebreakers get complicated. Arizona State (5.3%) has more potential paths to the conference title game than does Utah (2.7%). The Sun Devils (+1) are slight underdogs versus Arizona while the Utes (-13) are health favorites on the road at Kansas. Both teams need to win in order to have a chance to sneak into the Big 12 Championship Game.

The ACC has the most potentially chaotic set of endgame scenarios with six total teams with a chance to reach the championship game. That said, there is a 62% chance that Virginia will face SMU for the ACC crown as both teams control their own destiny.

SMU (-11.5) is a double digit favorite at California while Virginia (-10.5) is almost as big of a favorite at home versus rival Virginia Tech. If either team were to loss, Pittsburgh can claim a spot in the ACC Championship Game with a win over Miami. 

However, the Panthers are currently a 6.5-point underdog to the Hurricanes. Win a win, Miami has several paths to the conference title game either SMU or Virginia lose. Duke also has several paths, but the Blue Devils need to beat Wake Forest (+3).

My math suggest that Miami (17%), Pittsburgh (12.5%), and Duke (11%) all have similar odds to reach the ACC title game. Georgia Tech (1.6%) still has a very narrow path to the title game no matter how they perform out of conference against Georgia.

In the Group of Five, North Texas and Tulane are poised to wrap up the top two seeds in the American Athletic Conference. North Texas (-19.5) is a big favorite at home versus Temple while Tulane is an even biggest favorite at home against Charlotte (-28.5). 

If either North Texas or Tulane were to lose, Navy can secure a spot in the championship game if the Midshipmen can upset Memphis (-6). If not, South Florida is likely to secure the final spot in the AAC title game as long as the Bulls can beat Rice (+26).

East Carolina is also still technically alive, as long as they can beat Florida Atlantic (+6.5). The Pirates would need to come out ahead in a tiebreaker based on an average of various computer rankings, which is hard to predict.

If Tulane ends up as the AAC Champion, the Green Wave will be given the No. 12 seed in the college football playoffs. If Tulane stumbles, there is a path for either James Madison or San Diego State if either team can win the Sun Belt or Mountain West titles, respectively.

James Madison wraps up the regular season at Coastal Carolina (+21.5) while San Diego State (-1.5) has a tough road game at New Mexico.

Picks of the Week

Figure 1 below gives an overview summary of all my computer's projections for the week in comparison to the opening Vegas spread. 

The same data generated by EPSN's Football Power Index (FPI) is shown in Figure 2.

Figure 1: Comparison of the projected final margins of victory based on my algorithm to the opening Vegas lines for Week 14.

Figure 2: Comparison of the projected final margins of victory based on ESPN's FPI to the opening Vegas lines for Week 14.

A brief explanation of how to read these figures can be found in Week One's Bad Betting Advice column. This week's upset picks (the games appearing to the left of the vertical red lines in both figures) are summarized below in Table 3.

Table 3: Summary of upset picks for Week 14.

My computer offers up a total of eight upset picks while the FPI suggests a total of nine. Four of the picks overlap resulting in a total of 13 upset picks on the board this week.

Some notable upset picks are Kentucky over Louisville (-4.5), Syracuse over Boston College (-3), Houston over Baylor (-3), Texas over Texas A&M (-2.5), Arkansas over Missouri (-2), Florida State over Florida (-2), Wisconsin over Minnesota (-1.5), and Arizona State over Arizona (-1).

A simple simulation of the week's games suggests that a total of 18.9 plus-or-minus 3.5 upsets out of 67 games is most likely. This is, by far, the largest number of projected upsets for any week in the 2025 season. All but two FBS teams are in action this week, and a large percentage of the games are closely-matched rivalry games.

The games shown above in Figures 1 and 2 which fall outside of either set of dashed diagonal lines make up the set of suggested bets against the spread. However, this week neither computer is outputting a recommended bet against the spread.

But if you are looking for a few potentially promising bets, the most likely ones appear to be Memphis (-6) to cover versus Navy, Syracuse (+3) to cover versus Boston College, Iowa State (-14) to cover versus Oklahoma State, Kentucky (+4.5) to cover versus Louisville, and East Carolina (-6.5) to cover Florida Atlantic. 

Finally, Table 4 below summarizes my computer's recommended point total bets.

Table 4: Recommended total points bets (over/under) for Week 14. Note the picks labeled as "locks" are at a higher level of confidence.

My computer recommends just three over/under bets, two of which are considered as locks. My point total bets have struggled all year, so I would suggest to proceed with caution.

That is all the advice I have for you this week. Enjoy the games and check back early next week as I run back over these picks in Against All Odds to see how they panned out.