Michigan State Odds Update for Jan. 28

Every night in the Big Ten has the potential for chaos, but Tuesday night's the action was particularly drama-filled. 

In Piscataway, New Jersey, the Michigan State Spartans trailed by as many as 12 points multiple time in the second half but rallied to tie the game with under 20 seconds to play to force overtime. In Ann Arbor, the Michigan Wolverines trialed a short-handed Nebraska squad by as many as 11 points before taking the lead in the final seconds.

Depending on which set of data one believes (ESPN or Kenpom), the Spartans had only a 10-15% chance to get the win over Rutgers in the final minutes of the games. Michigan had between a 20-30% chance to win late in the second half.

But both the Spartans and Wolverine escaped Tuesday evening with a win. Purdue was not so lucky in Bloomington as the Boilermakers lost to rivals Indiana by five points. 

Table 1 below gives the updated enhanced Big Ten standings through Wednesday night's conference action

Table 1: Enhanced Big Ten standings through Jan. 29, 2026

Michigan's win over Nebraska has created a three-way tie for first place with those two teams and Michigan State. Illinois can join the three teams to create a four-way tie with a win over Washington on Thursday night. 

Nebraska continues to have the strongest strength of resume of the top four conference teams (+4.31 games better than expected of an average power four team). Illinois (+2.76) currently has the second-best resume, just ahead of Michigan State (+2.71) and Michigan (+2.62).

Purdue is now two games back of the lead pack in a three-way tie for fifth place with Wisconsin and UCLA at 7-3.

The updated Big Ten wins matrix is shown below in Table 2.

Table 2: Updated Big Ten expected wins and win distribution matrix. as of Jan. 29, 2026.

Michigan (16.52) and Nebraska (16.50) are in a virtual tie in expected wins. Illinois (16.16) is hovering about a third of a game back and Michigan State (15.69) is about a half-game behind Illinois.

Purdue (13.93) is almost two full games behind the Spartans and has clearly fallen behind the lead pack. That said, the Boilermakers are in a tier by themselves as Purdue is also two games ahead of the rest of the field. 

UCLA (11.87) and Iowa (11.71) have an expected win total just under 12 wins. Wisconsin (11.35) and Ohio State (10.71) are trending closer to 11 wins. Indiana (10.13) is on track to finish the conference season at .500.

Michigan State now has a 28% chance to finish with a final conference record of 17-3 or better. There is a 28.5% chance that MSU finished at 16-4, a 24% chance to finished at 15-5, and a 19% chance to finish at 14-6 or worse.

The Spartans also have a 79% chance to earn a top four seed in the Big Ten Tournament with a 50% chance of that seed being either No. 3 or No. 4.

Updated Odds to Win/Share the Conference Crown

The updated odds to win or share a portion of the Big Ten title are shown below in Table 3.

Table 3: Updated odds to win at least a share of the 2026 Big Ten regular season title as of Jan. 29, 2026.

As Table 2 suggest, Michigan (43.3%) and Nebraska (41.6%) are in a virtual tie at the top of the league for the best odds to win the conference. Illinois (33.5%) is just a few percentage points back in third place. Michigan State (22.4%) has the fourth best odds but is still very much in the race.

But the odds for Purdue (2.6%) have dropped to below 5%. After three straight losses, the Boilermakers essentially need to win out to have any reasonable chance to earn a share of the regular season title.

The Big Ten race is practically down to just four teams. Table 3 also suggests that the eventual Big Ten Champion(s) will finish with either at least a 18-2 record (58% odds) or a 17-3 record (37%).

The relative order of the top four teams shown in Tables 2 and 3 can be explained due to the remaining strengths of schedule for each team. Figure 1 below shows the updated strength of schedule data for Big Ten.

Figure 1: Updated Big Ten strengths of schedule for the remaining conference games as of Jan. 29, 2026.

Notably, Michigan State (4.31) and Michigan (4.39) have the two most challenging schedules left in the conference. From a raw expected win point of view, Illinois (5.58) and Nebraska (5.58) have remaining schedules of equal difficulty. However, Illinois has one additional game to play. From a percentage point of view, Nebraska has the easiest remaining Big Ten slate.

According to Kenpom, Michigan remains the strongest team in the conference. Nebraska is viewed as the weakest of the four contenders, but the Cornhuskers have over a one-game advantage in strength of schedule. These two factors essentially cancel out creating a virtual tie between the Wolverines and Huskers.

Michigan State and Illinois currently have very similar Kenpom efficiency margins, but Illinois has the easier remaining schedule of the two teams. This advantage is translating to about a 10 percentage point edge in the raw odds.

Michigan State has the fourth best overall odds due to a tough upcoming schedule and the fact that both Michigan and Illinois are considered slightly stronger teams according to the overall Kenpom data.

A Brief History of the Michigan/Michigan State Rivalry

All basketball fans in the Great Lakes State know what is about to happen on Friday night in East Lansing. No. 7 Michigan State is hosting No. 3 Michigan. It is one of the 12 games on the Big Ten schedule between two of the five primary contenders. The winner will retain a share of first place in the conference race.

Friday's matchup represents the highest combined rankings for the two teams in the history of the rivalry. As of Thursday afternoon, Michigan is a 1.5-point favorite, which gives the Wolverines about a 55% chance to win at Breslin. That margin is in agreement with Torvik data, but Kenpom has the game as a true toss up. 

That said, there are a plethora of reasons for Spartans fans to be confident about Friday's contest.

Under Tom Izzo, the Spartans have been dominant in the rivalry, especially in East Lansing. Since 1998 (following a string of now vacated Wolverine wins in the first three years of Izzo's tenure) the Spartans are 22-3 against Michigan at home. The Wolverines' only wins over Michigan State in East Lansing in the past 30 years were:

• 2011: Perhaps Izzo's most dysfunctional team of his career
• 2014: Both Adrian Payne and Branden Dawson were injured
• 2018: The day we learned that Nick Ward could not guard Moritz Wagner even a little bit

In 2018 Michigan State was ranked No. 4 and a 9.5-favorite when the unranked Wolverines upset the Spartans in Breslin. Unlike 2014, MSU was not able to avenge the loss when the two teams met later in the Big Ten Tournament semifinal. 

Michigan's 2018 win at Breslin is the only time in the past 30 years or longer that Michigan State had a good team that failed to beat Michigan either at home or later on a neutral court.

Michigan State is 13-7 against Michigan all time when both teams are ranked in the AP Poll, including six wins in a row and seven of the last eight.

Izzo has lived and breathed the rivalry with Michigan for over 40 years. He wants to beat Michigan with every fiber of his being and with every molecule in his body.

Michigan's Dusty May has about 18 months of experience in the rivalry. May brings with him a roster of players that includes just one Michigander (freshman Trey McKenney) and only five guys who have ever played at Breslin.

January 30 also happens to be Tom Izzo's 71st birthday and if Michigan State wins, it will secure a 20-2 overall record, which will be the best start in the entire history of Spartan basketball

Despite what the spread says, the weight of history suggests that this is a game that the Spartans will win, possibly in decisive fashion.

Impact of the result of Michigan at Michigan State

No matter what Vegas, history, or I have to say on the matter, by late Friday evening either the Spartans or the Wolverines will move to 10-1 in Big Ten play. Figure 2 below shows the current and projected Bigs Ten odds for each of the five primary contenders in the two scenarios where either Michigan or Michigan State wins.

Figure 2: Projected impact of the result of the Michigan/Michigan State game on the odds for each contender to win at least a share of the Big Ten regular season title.

A win by the Spartans would move MSU's odds from around 1-in-4 (23%) up to about 1-in-3 (35%).  Nebraska (44%) would once again claim the best overall odds to win at least a share of the Big Ten regular season title. Illinois (36%) would be neck-and-neck with the Spartans with the Wolverines (29%) dropping to fourth place.

The roughly 12-pecentage point odds improvement for the Spartans is more modest shift than expected. A win would likely also involve a bump in the metrics that would like push MSU's odds slightly higher. 

The bottom line is that a win by Michigan State would shift the balance of the conference race slightly, but the top four teams would all certainly still be contenders.

If Michigan happens to emerge victorious on Friday night, the Wolverines' odds would likely jump to close to 60%. The Spartans' odds are projected to drop to just 10% in this scenario. 

It is also notable that the odds for both Illinois and Nebraska are largely unaffected, but a win for Michigan State would be a small benefit to both schools.

What if...

Similar to my previous update, the analysis above carries with it the assumption that the season-long Kenpom efficiency data are a true reflection of the strength of each team. 

Based on Big-Ten-only Kenpom efficiencies, the picture changes significantly. Michigan State is the strongest team in the conference, followed by Michigan and Nebraska in a virtual tie for second. Illinois and Purdue are slightly behind the Wolverines and Cornhuskers.

If we assume that the Big-Ten-only data is a better representation of each team's strength, the projected point spread shifts from a pick'em to MSU favored by 7.5-points. This analysis suggests that Michigan State has a 77% chance to defeat the Wolverines.

Furthermore, Figure 3 below repeats the analysis of Figure 2 using this different set of assumptions.

Figure 4:  Projected impact of the result of the Michigan/Michigan State game  on the odds for each contender to win at least a share of the Big Ten regular season title assuming the Big Ten only efficiencies are an accurate representation of each team's current strength.

In this scenario, Michigan State and Nebraska are already the two favorites to win or share the title with at least 50-50 odds.

A win from the Spartans over the Wolverines would put Michigan State into a virtual tie with Nebraska with title odds around 60%. At the same time, the odds for Michigan to win at least a share of the title would drop to below 10%.

If Michigan were to "upset" MSU in this scenario, Nebraska's odds would jump up to 72%. The Wolverines would be the most likely challenger (32%) while the Spartans' odds would drop to 24%. 

Notably, in this worse case scenario, the Spartans' odds are no worse than we believe them to be today based on the full-year set of Kenpom data.