After a disastrous night in Minneapolis, where do the Spartans stand in the Big Ten race and beyond?

I believe that it is time to provide Michigan State Spartans fans with some perspective.

Prior to Wednesday night's disaster at Minnesota, MSU was 19-3 on the season which was tied for the best start in program history with the 2018 team that won the Big Ten title outright.

The Spartans have high-quality wins over Arkansas, Kentucky, North Carolina, Iowa, Indiana, and at Washington. 

MSU's other three loses have all come against top 10 opponents in games where that Spartans were highly competitive. Michigan State led Duke with just over four minutes to play and it was just a one-point game at the two-minute mark.

Michigan State led Nebraska by three points at the four-minute mark and trailed by just two points with the ball and under 20 seconds to play. Last Friday night against Michigan, it was a one-point game at the four-minute mark before the Spartans ran out of gas.

The three other teams who have given Michigan State a loss have lost a combined four games and one of them was Michigan's win over Nebraska.

MSU has not played well over the previous three game, but overall the current Spartan team is objectively one of the best Izzo teams on record. It might not feel that way, but the data says otherwise.

Michigan State is still ranked No. 11 in Kenpom and as Figure 1 below shows, MSU still very much has the profile of a National Title contender.

Figure 1: Kenpom efficiency scatter plot as of Feb. 6, 2026

The current Michigan State team is solidly located in the region of the graph occupied by past NCAA Champions. Overall, the offensive and defensive profile is somewhere between the 2019 Final Four team and last year's team that made the Elite Eight.

There are only 10 other teams that currently fit the historical criteria of an NCAA Champion. Only four of those teams have a clear edge over MSU: Arizona, Duke, Iowa State, and Michigan.

UConn, Florida, and Houston all have net efficiency that is similar to MSU. Those three teams are more offensively minded. Kansas, Nebraska, and Gonzaga are also currently contenders, but all three teams would currently project to be a slight underdog to the Spartans on a neutral court.

Note that neither Purdue nor Illinois currently have defenses that qualify for consideration as possible NCAA Champions.

IF the Spartans can get a "B+"-level of performance from the majority of the roster, they can compete with anyone in the country. The problem is that the current level of performance overall has been more of a "C-" for almost two full weeks.

But this kind of mid-season slump is not uncommon for Tom Izzo teams. Recall that last year the Spartans lost three-of-four games in early February. At one point in 2020, MSU had lost four of five game and six of 10 games before rallying to share the Big Ten title.

Even the 2019 Final Four team lost three straight Big Ten games in late January and early February. I will dig into this topic more soon, but suffice it to say that the current slump in East Lansing is far from abnormal.

That problem is that the quality of teams at the top of the Big Ten this year is much higher than normal. The top five Big Ten teams are all ranked in the top 12 of both Kenpom and the national polls. That has made the Spartans current slump more costly than usual.

Update on the Big Ten race

As of Friday, Feb. 6, the updated Big Ten regular season odds are shown below in Table 1.

Table 3: Odds to win or share the Big Ten regular season title and the win distributions for those winning teams.

The loss to Minnesota has dropped Michigan State two games between the Big Ten co-leaders, Illinois and Michigan. My analysis currently give the Fighting Illini (62.4%) the best odds to claim at least a share of the Big Ten title. Michigan (54%) is also more likely than not to hang a banner at the end of the year.

Illinois' advantage stems from a much easier remaining strength of schedule relative to the Wolverines. A hypothetical reference team playing each remaining schedule would be expected to win 4.1 games in Illinois' shoes and only 3.26 games with Michigan's schedule.

The Fighting Illini also have the advantage of hosting the only meeting this year between the two teams on Feb. 27.

Nebraska (12.9%) has an outside chance to claim at least a share of the title. Purdue (2.0%) and Michigan State (1.4%) are now considered extreme longshots.

MSU is currently expected to mostly likely finish at 15-5 or 14-6 in conference play. 

The Spartans are also now trending as the No. 5 seed in the Big Ten Tournament. It is now slightly more likely (60% odds) that Michigan State will have to start the Big Ten Tournament on Thursday against a team like USC, Washington, or Minnesota.

With this in mind, it is a good time to start thinking about the postseason.

First Look at Bracketology

There is a time and place for almost all things in life. 

For example, while it is possible to start playing Christmas music in early November before Thanksgiving, it is certainly not a good idea. Just because some people and businesses do it does not change the fact the it is silly.

Bracketology is similar. Many people and businesses will start churning out projected brackets in November, October, or even mid April. But that does not mean that this endeavor is reasonable, useful, or at all necessary.

But it is officially February, which means next month is March. We have seen enough basketball to at least be able to make some intelligent decisions about where teams might finish the season and therefore where they might wind up when the one real bracket is released on Selection Sunday.

Baring some sort of historical collapse, even with the results on Wednesday, the Michigan State Spartans are a virtual lock to make the Tournament. But where are they likely to end up in the Bid Dance?

Prior to the loss to Minnesota, MSU was solidly on the No. 3 seed line. As things stand now, the Spartans are starting to approach the border between the No. 3 seeds and the No. 4 seeds.

If Michigan State rallies late in the season, as the Spartans usually do, a No. 3 a likely and a No. 2 seed is still possible. If the Spartans continue to stumble, a No. 4 or No. 5 seed is more likely. More extreme scenarios are also possible, but far less likely.

Overall, the top three or four seed lines are starting to come into focus. As things stand now, three of the No. 1 seeds look pretty clear. 

• Michigan appears to be headed for the No. 1 seed in the Midwest Region (hosted in Chicago, Ill.)
• Arizona will very likely be the No. 1 seed in the West Region (in San Jose, Calif.)
• Duke will likely be the No. 1 seed in the East Region (in Washington, D.C.

The final No. 1 seed is a bit less clear, but UConn is the most obvious option right now to claim the final spot in the South Region (in Houston, Tex.)

However, Illinois is coming on strong in the Big Ten race. If the Fighting Illini beat Michigan and win a share of the Big Ten, there is a strong possibility that Illinois will be given the No. 1 seed in the Midwest and Michigan would still get a No. 1 seed, but in the South.

As for the other teams on the No. 2, No. 3, and No. 4 seed lines, there will likely be a heavy representation of teams from the Big Ten and Big 12. Nebraska, Illinois, Michigan State, and Purdue are all currently in that range in most mock brackets. In the Big 12, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Texas Tech, and BYU are all candidates.

SEC teams such as Florida, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, and Alabama are on a trajectory to land general on the No. 3 through No. 5 line. Gonzaga, Virginia, and St. John's are also in the mix.

Filling in the top four seed lines

With this in mind, we can start to use some simple logic to figure out where teams are most likely to end up. Right now the No. 2 seeds are projected to be the second and third best teams in the Big 12 and the Big Ten. I will assume that Michigan wins the Big Ten for the sake of argument going forward in this analysis.

Gonzaga appears to slot in nicely as the or No. 2 or No. 3 seed in the West for geographic reasons. I currently have the Zags as a No. 3 seed. The fourth best Big Ten and Big 12 teams will likely join Gonzaga as a No. 3 seed. I suspect that the eventual SEC Champion (most likely Florida) will wind up as the last No. 3 seed. 

The fifth-best Big Ten team may slip to the No. 4 seed line or could hold the line as the weakest No. 3 seed. As of today, that looks like Michigan State, but there is a lot of basketball left to be played.

Those groups of teams will be placed onto the bracket based on a combination of geography and the bracketing principle of avoiding conference rematches before the Elite Eight round if at all possible.

In the scenario outlined above, the South Region will be the home of the weakest No. 1 seed. The fact that the regional will be held in Houston suggests a nature fit for the second-best Big 12 team on the No. 2 seed line. Iowa State and Houston are the current most likely candidates, but Illinois also has a strong case.

It would be highly irregular to place a Big Ten team as a No. 2 seed in the Midwest, opposite No. 1 Michigan. Therefore the third-best Big 12 team (Iowa State or Houston) is likely headed to Chicago as the No. 2 seed.

The third-best Big Ten team (currently Nebraska) is likely headed to San Jose as the Selection Committee will almost certainly not place a second Big 12 team in the same region as No. 1 Arizona. 

The fourth-best Big Ten team (which right now is Purdue) is likely to earn a No. 3 seed. With two Big Ten teams holding a No. 2 seed in the West and East Regions, only the Midwest and South Regions are available to avoid the potential Sweet 16 conference rematch.

The best placement would be to slot this fourth best Big Ten team as the No. 3 seed in the either the South (with No. 1 UConn and No. 2 Houston/Iowa State) or in the East (with No. 1 Duke) in the case where the second-best Big Ten team (Illinois) is the No. 2 seed in the South.

However, if the fifth-best Big Ten team (such as Michigan State) is also a No. 3 seed, one of the two teams will likely be placed in the Midwest in Chicago.

Based on the "s-curve" method of filling in the bracket, the strongest No. 3 seed should be placed in the same region as the strongest No. 1 seed (and the weakest No. 2 seed). My current projection would naturally place the strongest No. 3 seed, Purdue, into the Midwest on a potential Elite Eight collision course with the Wolverines in Chicago.

If Michigan State is straddling the line between the No. 3 and No. 4 seed line, the natural "s-curve" placement would be as either seed in the South Region

Note that placement in the South with UConn would give the Spartans' the mathematically easiest path the Final Four. In fact, Kenpom suggests that Michigan State would be slightly favored on a neutral court against UConn if the season ended today.

The remaining No. 3 seed is likely to be a team such as Florida or Kansas and they would be placed in the East Region in Washington D.C. with the other team being the No. 3 or No. 4 seed in the South.

If the fifth-best Big Ten team (Michigan State) slips into the mid-No. 4 seed range, placement in the East or West Regions are also possible

Also note that if BYU ends up as a No. 4 or No. 5 seed, where the Cougars are currently projected, they will almost certainly start the Tournament in Portland, Ore. and be placed into the South Region. 

BYU does not play on Sundays leaving the West and South Regions as the only viable options. With Big 12 foe Arizona almost a lock for the No. 1 seed in the West, placement in the South Region is highly likely.

If the Spartans end up as the No. 4 Seed in the South, BYU is a very likely potential second round opponent.

As for MSU's first weekend placement, the the Spartans will most likely start the Tournament on Thursday in Buffalo, N.Y., along with Michigan. This is the closest first round site to Michigan and no other teams projected to be seeded on the top four lines have a preference for upset New York.

As long as the Spartans finish as a No. 3 seed or better, Buffalo is a virtual lock.