Michigan State and Big Ten Odds Update for Feb. 2

Friday night in East Lansing was not the kind of evening that Spartans fans were hoping for. 

Michigan State came out of the gate surprisingly tight while the visiting Wolverines were surprisingly poised. A bizarre sequence in the final minutes of the first half was triggered by a controversial hook-and-hold call on Cam Ward. This call catalyzed an 8-0 Michigan run that put the Spartans in an 18-point hole in the blink of an eye.

MSU managed to storm back in the second half and even briefly take the lead, but the damage done in the first half was too much to over come. The Spartans clearly ran out of gas in final five minutes as the Wolverines secured a double-digit victory at the Breslin Center.

Broadly, a look at the stats sheet shows that the two teams were even in a remarkable number of areas. Turnovers, rebounds, free throws, and even two-point shooting all essentially cancelled out. 

But the one area where Michigan carved out an significant advantage was three point shooting.  The Spartans shot just 4-23 (17.4%) from deep while Michigan was 8-for-21 (38%). That was the difference in the game.

From the boarder view of the Big Ten race, this weekend also featured another key game. On Sunday afternoon, Illinois traveled to Lincoln and avenged the Dec. 13 loss to Nebraska in Champaign. 

Table 1 below gives the updated enhanced Big Ten standings as of Monday, Feb. 2.

Table 1: Enhanced Big Ten standings through Feb. 2, 2026.

Illinois has moved into a tie for first place with Michigan at 10-1. Notably, Illinois has one more road win than Michigan also has the stronger conference strength of resume (+3.93 versus +3.40).

Michigan State is now tied for second place with Nebraska at 9-2. Note here that Nebraska is the team with more road wins and a stronger strength of resume (+4.09 versus +2.55).

Purdue and Wisconsin are both a game back at 8-3. UCLA and Iowa both have four conference losses.

The updated Big Ten wins matrix is shown below in Table 2.

Table 2: Updated Big Ten expected wins and win distribution matrix. as of Feb. 2, 2026.

For as good of a weekend as Michigan had, Illinois' weekend appears to be even better. The Fighting Illini have moved up to No. 5 in Kenpom are now just a tenth of a game in expected wins behind Michigan (16.99 versus 17.07).

Behind the new pair of conference leaders, some separation is starting to appear. Nebraska has fallen over a game behind the leaders (15.76) and is projected to finish with a conference record of 16-4. 

Michigan State now has an expected win total of 15.03, which is less than a half game more than Purdue (14.23). But there is still over a two-game gap between the Boilermakers and the sixth-place Iowa at 12.02. 

Wisconsin (11.74), UCLA (11.26), Indiana (10.82), and Ohio State (10.21) round out the rest of the top 10 Big Ten teams which are likely in contention for an NCAA Tournament spot.

The Spartans now have a 12% chance to finish the Big Ten regular season with a record of 17-3 or better. There is a 25% chance MSU finishes at 16-4, a 31% chance MSU finished at 15-5, and a 22% chance of a final record of 14-6. There is an 11% chance of a final record at 13-7 or worse.

Regarding the Big Ten Tournament, Michigan State is now trending to earn the No. 4 seed, with the odds of a No. 5 seed starting to creep up. The odds for MSU to earn the triple bye and the right to start the Tournament on Friday in Chicago are down to 62%.

Updated Odds to Win/Share the Conference Crown

The updated odds to win or share a portion of the Big Ten title are shown below in Table 3.

Table 3: Updated odds to win at least a share of the 2026 Big Ten regular season title as of Feb. 2, 2026.

As Table 2 hinted, Michigan (58%) and Illinois (55%) are now neck-and-neck to at least gain a share of the regular season Big Ten title. Michigan also has a slightly higher chance to get a solo title (34%) than Illinois (31%).

Michigan retuned to the No. 1 spot on Kenpom, but Illinois is not far behind at No. 5. The Fighting Illini also have the advantage of an easier remaining conference schedule. My calculations suggest that this gives Illinois a little over a half-game advantage over the Wolverines.

If Illinois can get past Michigan State next weekend, the only challenging road test is the west coast trip where the Fighting Illini will face USC and UCLA. Illinois will then host Michigan on Feb. 27 where they are currently projected as an extremely narrow favorite.

In contrast, Michigan still has additional road games at Purdue, Ohio State, and Iowa as well as the season finale rematch with Michigan State. 

The Cornhuskers' odds tumbled down to below 15% as a result of the loss on Sunday. MSU's odds also dropped to 8% following the loss to Michigan. Purdue generally held steady at a low value of 2.4%.

Table 3 also hints at a grim reality when it comes to Michigan State's Big Ten odds. There is currently a 66% chance that a record of at least 18-2 will be needed to earn a share of the Big Ten title.

The good news is that thanks to Illinois' upset road win over Nebraska, the Spartans now once again control their own destiny in the Big Ten race. If MSU wins out, Michigan State will repeat as Big Ten Champions. The bad news is that the odds for the Spartans to win out are just 1.5%.

A more likely scenario (5.1%) for the Spartans is that they finish at 17-3, likely with wins over both Illinois and Michigan at Crisler arena. In this scenario Michigan State could afford to lose one other game, and the winner of the Michigan/Illinois game on Feb. 27 would also need to drop another game as well.

The Narrow Path to a Big Ten Title

Figure 1 below summarizes the remaining schedule for Michigan State including the projected spread and victory odds for all nine games.

Figure 1: Updated Big Ten strengths of schedule for the remaining conference games

One of the problems over the past few weeks is that the schedule has been fairly compressed. The Spartans have not had more than three days rest in-between games since the four day gap between the Northwestern and Indiana home games in early January. The schedule going forward is more spread out.

If the Spartans are going to make a push to repeat as Big Ten Champions, there is a path, but it is increasingly narrow. It all starts with getting back on the beam with a win at Minnesota on Wednesday where MSU should be roughly a 10-point favorite.

Then, it is critical that the Spartans get a home win over Illinois at the Breslin Center on Saturday. MSU has five total games against the other four teams at the top of the conference. So far the Spartans have lost to Nebraska and Michigan. They cannot afford to go 0-3 and still have any realistic hope to win the Big Ten. All of the analysis below assumes that MSU gets the win over Illinois

If MSU gets to 11-2, the next three games are more manageable and they are also well spaced. The Spartans will have almost a week off before the tricky road game at Wisconsin on Feb. 13. 

The Spartans will then have almost two full weeks in East Lansing with just two home games against UCLA and Ohio State. This will be the time for Izzo to tighten the final screws as the post season approaches. 

My calculations give Michigan State about a 25% chance to sweep the next five games. That would place MSU at 14-2 with four game left. I believe that is where the Spartans will need to be in order to still be in the conference race.

To put things into context, Michigan State also had about a 25% chance to go 9-0 in the nine conference games that all already in the win column. The upcoming five-game slate is more challenging, but it is possible.

If this scenario were to come to pass, Michigan State would be no worse than tied in the standings with Illinois on Feb. 25. My math suggests that Michigan only has a 35% chance to still be sitting with just one conference loss on the same date. 

Michigan has to travel to West Lafayette on Feb. 17 and that contest against Purdue currently projects to be a toss-up. But the Wolverines will be playing their fourth game in 10 days when they get to Purdue and three of those games are on the road. 

If the Maize and Blue can win all four of those games, they likely deserve to win the Big Ten. Odds are they will drop at least one of those contests. Michigan State could once again be in first place prior to the Spartans' road game at Purdue.

The final four games of the season will present the final test. Michigan State will travel to Purdue on Feb. 26 and the following day Michigan will travel to Illinois. It is tough to predict which team the Spartans should root for, but either the Wolverines or the Fighting Illini will take another loss.

Beating Purdue in Mackey Arena will be a challenge for MSU. But the return trip to the State of Indiana just three days later to face the Hoosiers will also be challenging. Michigan State would be smart to consider not returning to East Lansing between the two games.

This is the stretch that worries me the most. I believe that beating both Purdue and Indiana on the road over a four-day span is going to be very difficult. Even if MSU can get these two wins, the odds of beating Purdue, Indiana, and Wisconsin all on the road are just 15%.

My most optimistic best-case scenario is that MSU gets to the final game of the season at Michigan with a 16-3 record and a chance to still at least tie for the Big Ten title. That means that the loser of the Illinois/Michigan game on Feb. 27 will need to have taken another loss somewhere along the way.

If this all were to come to pass, it would set up an even more intense and high-stakes game between the Spartans and the Wolverines. At this point, the best that MSU fans came hope for is a chance to avenge Friday night's loss in a way that has an impact.