Statistical Analysis of the 2015 Cotton Bowl (MSU vs. Baylor)

I have never been as much as an Xs and Os kind of guy, but last year, I decided to take a closer look at the Rose Bowl match-up from a statistics point of view using the data from the NCAA website.  I general broke down four main statistical areas: rush offense, pass offense, rush defense, and pass defense (all on a yards per attempt basis to normalize for style of play as much as possible). It was a fun exercise last year, so I figured that I would try it again for the upcoming battle with Baylor.

Here is the synopsis:  In general, Baylor is known as an offensive juggernaut that plays no defense, but the facts are actually a little different. On a yards per attempt basis, MSU's offense (6.58 yd/att, good for 18th nationally) is actually a hair better than Baylor's (6.56 yd/att, 19th), and Baylor's defense is overall better than I expected (34th nationally compared to 20th for MSU).  However, MSU is clearly the most balanced team that Baylor had faced all year. MSU ranks no worse than 26th in any single category nationally (run offense, pass offense, rush defense, and pass defense). In contrast, Baylor has a very good pass offense (9th) and a very good rush defense (5th), but an OK run offense (41st), and dare I say poor pass defense (100th!)  Baylor has beaten teams with good offenses (like TCU, Oklahoma, and K-State), but all three of these teams have one important thing in common: mediocre pass defense.  When Baylor played teams with good pass defense (WVU and Texas) they struggled to put up points.  Based on these numbers, I think both teams will struggle to run the ball, but, as long as MSU takes care of the ball and Cook has a good game, I expect MSU to be able to pass efficiently and outscore Baylor in the end.

Ok, the rest of this is going to get pretty detailed and rambling.  Keep reading if you dare. 

Still with me?  Ok, as I mentioned above, Baylor is a very good passing team and an OK running team. Statistically, Baylor's offense is closest to Ohio State's passing game paired with Michigan's running attack. A little scary, maybe, but perhaps manageable. On the defensive side of the ball, Baylor's run defense is closest to Penn State's, but their pass defense is closer to Rutgers, statistically.  MSU has faced better passing attacks (Oregon and OSU), better running attacks (Oregon, OSU, Nebraska, and Indiana), a better rush defense (Penn State), and eight teams with better pass defenses. That being said, Baylor is the only team MSU has faced other than OSU which has on overall offense and defense (on a yd/att basis) both rated in the top 40 nationally.

As I mentioned above, Baylor pass offense is quite good, ranked 9th nationally at 8.9 yd/att.  MSU's pass defense (14th at 6.00 yd/att) has faced four teams with Top 40 pass offenses in OSU, Oregon, Nebraska, and Rutgers. MSU held Nebraska and Rutgers to well below their averages through the air, but both Oregon and OSU torched MSU's secondary for well over 11 yd/att, mostly due to several coverage busts that led to big plays. Can MSU cut down or eliminate these busts in this final exam? If they can, that will go a long ways towards victory. On the flip side of the coin, however, how many good secondaries has Baylor actually faced? The answer is actually only two: West Virginia (31st at 6.46 yd/att) and Texas (5th at 5.64 yd/att). The good news for MSU is that Baylor's passing game struggled against both of these teams, yielding only 111 yards through the air against Texas (and only 5 yd/att) and only 223 yd (6.0 yd/att) against West Virginia. They might have lost to Texas as well, but the Longhorn's offense is terrible (100th overall) and they could only manage 7 points. Is it possible that MSU can bottle up Baylor's passing game as well? Another way to look at this is that MSU's pass defense on average hold opponents to only 81% of their usual yd/att average while Baylor' pass offense usually gets 15% more yd/att than their opponents typically give up. If you average all the data together, it suggests that Baylor will only be able to muster 7.1 yd/att through the air against MSU, which is a pretty average output (it would be only good for 64th nationally if that were their average.)

When Baylor tries to run the ball, they are 41st in the country at 4.73 yd/att. This is most similar to the rushing attack of Michigan (45th at 4.60 yd/att) and Purdue (42th at 4.69 yd/att). MSU shut down UofM (and the better rushing team Nebraska), but did allow did allow 5.2 yd/att against Purdue (but only 129 yd rushing total). Against the more elite running attacks, MSU did struggle a bit, giving up 6.5 yd/att and over 200 yard to both OSU and Indiana. MSU had an OK day against Oregon as well, giving up 4.3 yd/att.  However, Baylor is not an elite running team. Baylor is also a bit of a mixed bag when they face good rush defenses. Baylor has faced three top 40 run defenses in TCU (6th at 2.98 yd/att), Oklahoma (9th at 3.16 yd/att), and K-State (32nd at 3.72 yd/att). They put up good numbers against TCU (272 yd on 5.0 yd/att) and K-State (172 yd on 4.9 yd/att), but struggled a bit against Oklahoma (148 yd on only 3.0 yd/att) and had a bad outing against a weaker WVU run  D (only 95 yd on 2.3 yd/att). So, the match-up of Baylor running the ball against MSU's D is a bit of a tossup, but it looks to me like MSU should be able to contain, if not stop the attack. MSU typically holds opponents to 69% of their usual running output while Baylor usually is 11% better against opponents rush D. This results in a predicted running output of only 3.5 yard/att against MSU's defense, which would be equivalent to a very poor ranking of 106th.

What about when MSU has the ball? MSU's rushing attack is a very respectable 26th in the nation at 5.14 yd/att. Against good rush defenses like Michigan (11th at 3.21 yd/att) and Ohio State (38th at 3.87 yd/att) MSU did well averaging 4.8 and 5.2 yd/att respectively. However, against the #1 rush defense in the nation, Penn State (1st at 2.56 yd/att) MSU struggled to only get 118 yd at 2.9 yd/att. MSU also struggled to run on Oregon (58th) and Nebraska (88th) netting only 3.4 and 4.3 yd/att, but smashed everyone else on the schedule for over 5 yd/att.  Unfortunately, statistically, Baylor is the 2nd best rush defense that MSU has faced at 5th in the country and 2.94 yd/att. Similar to their rush offense, Baylor's rush defense is a little bit of a mixed bag. They have faced three Top 40 running attacks: Oklahoma (5th at 6.13 yd/att), TCU (18th at 5.38 yd/att yd/att), and Texas Tech (24th at 5.15 yd/att).  Baylor did great against TCU (only 3.4 yd/att), OK against Texas Tech (4.0 yd/att), and rather poorly against Oklahoma (5.2 yd/att). It should also be noted that while Baylor has allowed over 100 yd rushing in 9 of 11 games, the most yards that they have allowed on the ground is 190 yd against Texas. Using a similar analysis as above, MSU usually rushes for 18% more yd/att then their opponent allows on average, but Baylor usually holds opponent to a mere 66% of their season averages. The equates to a rather poor projection of only 3.4 yd/att for MSU running attack (equivalent to 110th). In other words, based on this analysis, neither team is expected to run the ball well. If one team can, that will go a long ways toward victory.

Which brings us finally to the area where MSU appears to hold the biggest edge: MSU's pass offense against Baylor pass defense.  MSU has the 11th best pass offense in the country at 8.77 yd/att, while Baylor's pass defense is one of the worst in the country at 100th (7.54 yd/att).  Baylor has gone up against four teams with Top 40 passing offenses: K-State (4th at 9.28 yd/att), TCU (23rd at 8.12 yd/att), Buffalo (33rd at 7.78 yd/att), and WVU (37th at 7.72 yd/att).  They didn't really defend any of those teams effectively giving up 322 yd (9.2 yd/att) to K-State, 346 yd (7.2 yd/att) to TCU, 255 yd (8.2 yd/att) to Buffalo, and 322 yd (9.2 yd/att) to WVU.  Baylor has given up over 250 yds 7 times, and over 300 yds 4 times. Not good.  When MSU has faced equally bad pass defenses like Rutgers (104th at 7.68 yd/att), Wyoming (117th at 8.41 yd/att) or Eastern Michigan (124th at 8.82 yd/att), MSU did well gaining 10.7, 9.8, and 8.4 yd/att. MSU typically gets 25% more yd/att through the air than their opponents typically allow and Baylor usually gives up 4% MORE yards through the air than their opponents average. This suggests that MSU should have a very good day of 9.3 yd/att through the air, equivalent to 4th nationally.

But the Big 12 is so much better than the Big Ten (says ESPN), that the stats are probably skewed right?  Well, I am not sure about that. MSU has played 3 teams that are in the Top 40 of both offense categories (OSU, Oregon, and Nebraska), while Baylor has only played 1 (TCU), although both Oklahoma and K-State have overall Top 40 defenses in total yd/att.  Interestingly, none of these three Big 12 have strong pass defenses (all are ranked in the 50-60 range nationally), but they do have good rush defenses. This plays directly into Baylor's strength in the passing game. In contrast, MSU's best three opponents all have Top 40 pass defenses but more modest rush defenses, which is more of a strength on strength match-up. If you look further down both teams' schedules they actually seem to be pretty comparable. Both Michigan and Penn State have statistically good defenses and bad offenses, just like Texas. WVU has an OK offense and defense, but is really not much better than Maryland statistically. Both teams have also played teams with some good offensive parts but terrible defenses (Indiana, Rutgers, Texas Tech, and Buffalo). Oklahoma State looks kind of like Purdue, and no one else on Baylor's schedule is in the Top 80 of ANY statistical category on either side of the ball. If anything, MSU's schedule seems a shade better than Baylor's.

So, if we add everything up, it looks to me like both teams are likely to struggle to run the ball, but MSU should have a significant advantage through the air. Just on paper, this looks like victory to MSU to me.