I feel like I have been hearing also sorts of comments about MSU recruiting or lack of recruiting or severe drop off in recruiting, or what-have-you for months. But, nobody seemed to have a lot of hard numbers to back anything up. So, I decided to pull those numbers and visualize them. What I have done is to pull the recruiting data for 6 of the top teams in the Big Ten back to 2007.
We could argue for days about the best way to quantify recruiting and we could argue for several more days about whether these number actually mean anything. But, let’s put all that aside for a moment. In my view, the best way to compare recruiting classes, based on the numbers in the Rival’s database (such as they are), is to use the average rating for each class. This gives a little more information than simply a 2-star through 5-star rating and unlike the Rivals ranking, the total number of recruits does not matter. First off, let’s look at the comparison of MSU, OSU, and UofM (with some photos to remind us of the timing of key coaching changes) based on this metric and talk about the take home messages (note that I pulled this data a few weeks ago, so the 2018 data might be a bit off for some teams as of today):
MSU’s recruiting was clearly not great in Dantonio’s first two years, but after that it was been consistently pretty good. From 2009 to now, MSU has averaged a rating of 5.66 per class. After the Rose Bowl in 2013 (and the hiring of Curtis Blackwell), recruiting did untick to a high of 5.74 in 2016. Now, you could argue that several highly ranked members of the 2016 class are no longer with the team and that is true. But, even if I knock out Corley, King, Vance, Robertson, Lyke, and Lukusa, the average rating is still a respectable 5.69. Granted, 2017 was a down year, but the rating of just under 5.60 is still way better than the 2007 and 2008 class that helped to win the 2010 Big Ten Title and quite similar to the 2010 class that happened to include a few chumps named Gholston, Isiah Lewis, Max Bullough, Jeremy Langford, Tony Lippett, Dennard, and Le’Veon Bell. Finally, the 2018 rating as it stands now, looks just fine.
Regarding Michigan, a team which incidentally has not one a single conference title over the length of this chart, it seems like this data may bust a few myths that are often repeated in the local Wolverine echo chambers. As is quite clear, recruiting for Big Blue has always been quite strong, and all three of their past coaches have back-to-back classes that averaged around 5.77. RichRod had two stellar years in 2008 and 2009, yet somehow left the cupboard bare for Hoke, who was just killing it in 2012 and 2013, yet left the cupboard bare again for Harbaugh. Yet, with all this top talent rolling into Ann Arbor, since 2008 they are 3-15 vs. MSU and OSU combined. Huh, it’s almost like there is a significant cultural problem there that goes beyond multiple coaching staffs, because the recruiting data looks consistent and strong. Now, Harbaugh might be able to put together a third strong class in 2018 to go with the 2016 and 2017 class, but at that point we will see if his team is sick of his antics and sick of finishing 3rd in the division. Stay tuned.
As for OSU, well, they seem to be in a league of their own. The National title for the 2014 team makes a bit more sense considering the 2011-2014 classes, and the 2017 class and start to the 2018 class looks downright scary. OSU has also clearly out-recruited Michigan every single year in this chart. No wonder the Wolverines can’t seem to beat them. That all said, I still go back to how BAD that OSU team was at the end of last year and how Urban finished out at Florida and wonder how much longer the magical ride in Columbus will last.
Now, what if we compare MSU’s recruiting to the teams in the next tier for the Big Ten, namely Penn State, Nebraska, and Wisconsin? That chart is shown here:
If you were to take the average of those three teams ratings since MSU have its uptick in 2009, you would find that all four teams have pretty comparable average recruiting ratings. Nebraska has out-recruited MSU most years before 2013, where they fell off, but the Huskers have shown steady improvement since and are off to a strong start in 2018. How many B1G Titles have they won since 2007? Oh, that’s right, the same number that Michigan has. Penn State seems more all over the place. Sometimes they are up (like 2010) and sometimes they are down (like 2012). The resident used car salesman and coach in Happy Valley seems to have recruiting on an uptick over the past two years, but in general, MSU has out-recruited PSU in 5 of the last 7 complete classes. MSU also has 3 titles to PSU’s 1 since 2009.
Of course, the ultimate irony is that the team on these two plots that has recruited the worst, based on these metrics, is Wisconsin, who is also the only other team with as many Titles as MSU since 2009. Since 2009, Wisconsin has only not been last in recruiting in this pier group twice (in 2012 and last year). And yet, over three coaching staff, they just. keep. winning.
Now, I will agree in some part with what people like Rico Beard say, which is that you can win a lot of games if you recruit like the Badgers, but you need to pull in Top 5 classes (like OSU does) to compete for a National Title. Perhaps that is true, but based on this analysis, I don’t see a major shift in the balance of power in the Big Ten as long as Dantonio is still in East Lansing. Teams like OSU, Michigan, and Nebraska usually out-recruit MSU, but when MSU recruits at the level they have from 2009 on, MSU can beat those teams. Penn State is erratic, and I honestly don’t think that will change, and Wisconsin will continue to be a pain. The key for MSU is to have solid leadership at the head coach position and good enough recruits to be competitive. Add those things together, and MSU will continue to be a force to be reckoned with.
Anyway, food for thought.
We could argue for days about the best way to quantify recruiting and we could argue for several more days about whether these number actually mean anything. But, let’s put all that aside for a moment. In my view, the best way to compare recruiting classes, based on the numbers in the Rival’s database (such as they are), is to use the average rating for each class. This gives a little more information than simply a 2-star through 5-star rating and unlike the Rivals ranking, the total number of recruits does not matter. First off, let’s look at the comparison of MSU, OSU, and UofM (with some photos to remind us of the timing of key coaching changes) based on this metric and talk about the take home messages (note that I pulled this data a few weeks ago, so the 2018 data might be a bit off for some teams as of today):
MSU’s recruiting was clearly not great in Dantonio’s first two years, but after that it was been consistently pretty good. From 2009 to now, MSU has averaged a rating of 5.66 per class. After the Rose Bowl in 2013 (and the hiring of Curtis Blackwell), recruiting did untick to a high of 5.74 in 2016. Now, you could argue that several highly ranked members of the 2016 class are no longer with the team and that is true. But, even if I knock out Corley, King, Vance, Robertson, Lyke, and Lukusa, the average rating is still a respectable 5.69. Granted, 2017 was a down year, but the rating of just under 5.60 is still way better than the 2007 and 2008 class that helped to win the 2010 Big Ten Title and quite similar to the 2010 class that happened to include a few chumps named Gholston, Isiah Lewis, Max Bullough, Jeremy Langford, Tony Lippett, Dennard, and Le’Veon Bell. Finally, the 2018 rating as it stands now, looks just fine.
Regarding Michigan, a team which incidentally has not one a single conference title over the length of this chart, it seems like this data may bust a few myths that are often repeated in the local Wolverine echo chambers. As is quite clear, recruiting for Big Blue has always been quite strong, and all three of their past coaches have back-to-back classes that averaged around 5.77. RichRod had two stellar years in 2008 and 2009, yet somehow left the cupboard bare for Hoke, who was just killing it in 2012 and 2013, yet left the cupboard bare again for Harbaugh. Yet, with all this top talent rolling into Ann Arbor, since 2008 they are 3-15 vs. MSU and OSU combined. Huh, it’s almost like there is a significant cultural problem there that goes beyond multiple coaching staffs, because the recruiting data looks consistent and strong. Now, Harbaugh might be able to put together a third strong class in 2018 to go with the 2016 and 2017 class, but at that point we will see if his team is sick of his antics and sick of finishing 3rd in the division. Stay tuned.
As for OSU, well, they seem to be in a league of their own. The National title for the 2014 team makes a bit more sense considering the 2011-2014 classes, and the 2017 class and start to the 2018 class looks downright scary. OSU has also clearly out-recruited Michigan every single year in this chart. No wonder the Wolverines can’t seem to beat them. That all said, I still go back to how BAD that OSU team was at the end of last year and how Urban finished out at Florida and wonder how much longer the magical ride in Columbus will last.
Now, what if we compare MSU’s recruiting to the teams in the next tier for the Big Ten, namely Penn State, Nebraska, and Wisconsin? That chart is shown here:
Of course, the ultimate irony is that the team on these two plots that has recruited the worst, based on these metrics, is Wisconsin, who is also the only other team with as many Titles as MSU since 2009. Since 2009, Wisconsin has only not been last in recruiting in this pier group twice (in 2012 and last year). And yet, over three coaching staff, they just. keep. winning.
Now, I will agree in some part with what people like Rico Beard say, which is that you can win a lot of games if you recruit like the Badgers, but you need to pull in Top 5 classes (like OSU does) to compete for a National Title. Perhaps that is true, but based on this analysis, I don’t see a major shift in the balance of power in the Big Ten as long as Dantonio is still in East Lansing. Teams like OSU, Michigan, and Nebraska usually out-recruit MSU, but when MSU recruits at the level they have from 2009 on, MSU can beat those teams. Penn State is erratic, and I honestly don’t think that will change, and Wisconsin will continue to be a pain. The key for MSU is to have solid leadership at the head coach position and good enough recruits to be competitive. Add those things together, and MSU will continue to be a force to be reckoned with.
Anyway, food for thought.
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