Dr. Green and White Sports Authority

A few years back, I developed a sports-math fascination that quickly turned into a bit of an obsession. The topic? The relationship between the Vegas Spread and the probability that the favored team will be victorious. I am not sure exactly where this came from, but its origin is probably linked to EPSN’s FPI metric, which attempts to do some very similar things to what I try to do, but with seemingly much more dubious methodology (such as an undying reliance on the importance of recruiting rankings over on-field results). In any event, I became a bit obsessed with finding the answer to the question of how spreads correlate to the probability of victory. I have tried a few google searches to find out if someone else has written on the subject, and so far I not come up with much at all. But, I think I have found that answer, or at least I think I am very close. On first glance, you would think that this question should be quite simple to solve. After all, you just need to plot the...

As MSU's final game of the 2017 season approaches, I have found it to be a useful exercise to take a bit of a deep dive into the hard numbers that each team has generated over season. In particular, I like to analyze the rush and pass offense and defense numbers for each team on a per attempt basis. In addition, I like to take a closer look at the schedule of each team to gain a better understanding of the level of competition that each team has faced. Washington State is a unique team with some unique stats, but I think that we can learn a little bit about what to expect. I have never claimed to be a great x's and o's guy, and a wise man once said, "stats are for losers," but I think a statistical analysis is a part of the puzzle. That all said, in the analysis below, when I make comparisons between teams, it is always from the view point of statistical similarities , i.e. similar yards per play. OK? Let's dig in. MSU's Run Game (#93, 3.92 yd/att) vs. W...

Happy Holidays! The Thanksgiving turkey has long been digested; the calendar has flipped to December; there is snow on the ground in Michigan; Army beat Navy; Bama fans are happy; Buckeye fans are sad, and that can only mean one things: it’s Bowl Season! The happy news for Spartan fans is that MSU will actually be participating is the festivities this year and not just watching on TV.  On the 28 th , MSU will square off with The Pirate and his merry band of Cougars in San Diego.  I plan to discuss that particular match-up at a later date. For today, I thought that it would be fun to take a quick spin around the country to take a look at the Bowl match-ups in each conference and get an early feel for who might win the Bowl Cup Challenge. What’s that, you ask? Well, it’s completed contrived “competition” that ESPN came up with in 2002 to track which conference has the best winning percentage in Bowl Games. The Big Ten even won it once in the inaugural year.  Don’t you re...

If there is one thing we can all agree upon, I think that it was certainly a very interesting weekend. I wasn’t planning on making a Recap post this week, but I have a few things to get off my chest, and I might as well do it here and put a bit of a bow on things. Basically, I made a lot of predictions over the past week or so, and I did not exactly knock it out of the park. But, que sera sera. Just for fun, let’s review exactly how wrong I was, and perhaps more importantly, why: 1) My spreadsheet picked 4 upsets in the Championship Games, but only got one right. I am not exactly sure why, but based on my power rankings, I picked Stanford, TCU, Wisconsin, and Georgia to win, and of course only the Bulldogs actually won. My spreadsheet historically does a surprising good job projecting spreads, but it sometime can get a little wonky. Just as example, after this weekend’s action, Penn State is ranked 3 rd , Wisconsin 4 th , TCU 10 th , Iowa is 14 th , MSU is 20 th , and USC is...