2017, Bowl Preview (Final Exams)

Happy Holidays! The Thanksgiving turkey has long been digested; the calendar has flipped to December; there is snow on the ground in Michigan; Army beat Navy; Bama fans are happy; Buckeye fans are sad, and that can only mean one things: it’s Bowl Season! The happy news for Spartan fans is that MSU will actually be participating is the festivities this year and not just watching on TV.  On the 28^th, MSU will square off with The Pirate and his merry band of Cougars in San Diego.  I plan to discuss that particular match-up at a later date.

For today, I thought that it would be fun to take a quick spin around the country to take a look at the Bowl match-ups in each conference and get an early feel for who might win the Bowl Cup Challenge. What’s that, you ask? Well, it’s completed contrived “competition” that ESPN came up with in 2002 to track which conference has the best winning percentage in Bowl Games. The Big Ten even won it once in the inaugural year.  Don’t you remember the parade? No? That is not too surprising as the SEC has only won it twice, and much like the ACC-Big Ten Challenge, it is really only a thing when ESPN’s favorite conference wins it.

Regardless of any ESPN foolishness, I have always really enjoyed Bowl Season. For me, it is a fun way to compare conferences in match-ups that are usually pretty compelling. It is like a final exam at the end of the season, where both individual and group work counts towards the final grade. In the current NY6 / Playoff System, I think that one of the main results is that better match-ups are generated up and down the schedule. As a fan, that is pretty fun and is exactly what I am looking for in my Holiday sports entertainment.

So, with that in mind, let’s take a look at the prospects for each conference this year, starting with the Group of 5. I have also included by traditional weekly plot of my spreadsheet's predictions vs. the opening spread. Please also note that I may not have all of the official bowl names correct, as I was reconstructing the sponsors from memory.

Sun (aka “Fun”) Belt

12/16: Rick's Cabaret New Orleans Bowl: Troy State (-5.5) vs. North Texas

12/16: Just Like Heaven Robert Smith Cure Bowl: Georgia St. (+5.0) vs. Western Kentucky

12/16: Invasive Species Camellia Bowl: Arkansas State (-3.5) vs. Middle Tenn

12/23: At Least It’s Not Walmart Dollar General Bowl: Toledo vs. Appalachian State (+8.0)

12/30: Dodd-Franck Act Arizona Bowl: Utah State vs. New Mexico State (+3.0)

Vegas Says: 2-3

Dr. G&W Says: 3-2

It is not a terribly inspiring line up for the Fun Belt, with 3 match-ups with the C-USA, and 1 match-up each with the MAC and Mountain West. But, at least the spreads are close and the games should be competitive. Bragging rights are the most on the line in the New Orleans Bowl, which pits the Fun Belt co-champs and LSU Tiger slayers, Troy State, against C-USA West Champ North Texas. The same can be said for the Dollar General Bowl, which pits MAC Champ Toledo against Fun Belt Co-Champ Appalachian State. Vegas is not optimistic that the conference will finish over 500 in Bowls this year, but my spreadsheet like Georgia State to upset Western Kentucky, thus completing a fairly disappointing season for the 6-6 Hilltoppers.

Conference USA! USA! USA!

12/16: Rick's Cabaret New Orleans Bowl: Troy State vs. North Texas (+5.5)

12/16: Just Like Heaven Robert Smith Cure Bowl: Georgia St. vs. Western Kentucky (-5.0)

12/16: Invasive Species Camellia Bowl: Arkansas State vs. Middle Tenn (+3.5)

12/16: Tighty Whitey New Mexico Bowl: Marshall (+5.5) vs. Colorado State

12/19: Cheribundi Tart Cherry (seriously, that's its real name) Boca Raton Bowl: Florida Atlantic (-17.0) vs. Akron

12/20: Not Actually in the Bay Area Frisco Bowl: SMU vs. Louisiana Tech (+5.0)

12/21: Pirates on Riding Lawnmowers Gasparilla Bowl: Temple vs. Florida Int. (+7.0)

12/22: Kinkos Passport Photo Update Bahamas Bowl: Ohio vs. UAB (+7.5)

12/27: Our Sponsor Can't Spell "Bistro" Independence Bowl: Florida State vs. Southern Miss (+14.0)

Vegas Says: 2-7

Dr. G&W: 2-7 (but not the same 2 or 7)

In looking through the slate for Conference USA, the first thing that strikes you is, "there are seriously enough bowl games for the C-USA to earn nine slots, eight of which are played before Christmas?" Yes, yes that is correct. The second thing that strikes you is, "and yet they are underdogs in 7 of those 9 games despite only one of those games (the Independence / FSU Charity Bowl) featuring a Power 5 team?" Yes, that is also correct. Let's just say the C-USA is not the strongest conference out there. The projected highlight for the conference is C-USA champ's Florida Atlantic's battle in Boca Raton against Akron, in which they are 17-point favorites, the largest of any bowl game this year. Other than that... WKU is supposed to beat Georgia State, but my spreadsheet does not agree. Fear not, though C-USA fans, as my math likes Marshall to upset Colorado State. So, 2 wins out of 9 might just by in your reach after all.

MAC(tion)

12/19: Cheribundi Tart Cherry (seriously, that's its real name) Boca Raton Bowl: Florida Atlantic vs. Akron (+17.0)

12/22: Kinkos Passport Photo Update Bahamas Bowl: Ohio (-7.5) vs. UAB 

12/22: Did We Mention Our Field is Blue? Famous Idaho Potato Bowl: Central Michigan (0.0) vs. Wyoming

12/23: At Least Its Not Walmart Dollar General Bowl: Toledo (-8.0) vs. Appalachian State

12/26: Motor City, Pizza Pizza, Quick Lane Bowl: Duke vs. Northern Illinois (+4.5)

Vegas Says: 2-2-1

Dr. G&W Says: 3-2

Considering the C-USA managed to get 9 teams to qualify for bowls and the MAC only managed 5 is a bit of a head scratcher. I mean, LA Tech, Middle Tennessee State, and Western Kentucky all got Bowl bids at 6-6, while Western Michigan and Buffalo also finished 6-6 and are home for the holidays. Middle Tennessee seems to be the only team that did not play an FCS team, so I guess I just don't get it (and apparently I don't care enough to look up the reason). Ironically, the MAC is expected to win the same number of games as C-USA according to Vegas, while I have Central beating Wyoming to bring the conference's total to 3. MAC Champ Toledo is expected to handle App State, and Ohio is expected to beat UAB in the Bahamas, and I certainly would not count Northern Illinois out against Duke in Detroit.

Mountain West (I Can't Really Make Fun of This, Because it is Honestly a Cool Name)

12/16: Pfizer Prophylactic Penicillin Las Vegas Bowl: Boise State (+5.0) vs. Oregon

12/16: Tighty Whitey New Mexico Bowl: Marshall vs. Colorado State (-5.5)

12/22: Did We Mention Our Field is Blue? Famous Idaho Potato Bowl: Central Michigan vs. Wyoming (0.0)

12/23: Blackwater Mercenary Armed Forces Bowl: San Diego State (-7.5) vs. Army

12/24: Aloha Was Better, But We'll Just Go With Hawaii Bowl: Fresno State (+2.0) vs. Houston

12/30: Foreclosure Crisis Arizona Bowl: Utah State (-3.0) vs. New Mexico State

Vegas Says: 3-2-1

Dr. G&W: 4-2

Believe it or not, but the Mountain West has won more "Bowl Challenge Cups" (4) than any other conference. As I look through their bowl line up this year, it is perhaps not a surprise, as the majority of match-ups are with foes from generally weaker Group of 5 conferences. It is not uncommon for the MWest to go 4-1, which generally no other conference can match. This year, however, things could be a bit tougher, as Vegas only has them favored in 3 of the 6 games. Interestingly, my spreadsheet only agrees with 2 of Vegas' 6 picks: San Diego State and Utah State to win. Vegas likes Oregon to win in the Las Vegas Bowl and Houston to win in Hawaii, while my math likes Boise and Fresno State (AKA, the biggest surprise team in all of college football this year, present fan base included). Conversely, I like Marshall while Vegas prefers Colorado State in the New Mexico Bowl. The CMU-Wyoming game on the blue turf of Boise is perhaps the most interesting game as Vegas had that game open as a pick'em. Come on Vegas, PICK A SIDE. As for my spreadsheet? FIRE UP CHIPS.

American Athletic (Conference USA, v2.0)

12/20: Not Actually in the Bay Area Frisco Bowl: SMU (-5.0) vs. Louisiana Tech

12/21: Pirates on Riding Lawnmowers Gasparilla Bowl: Temple (-7.0) vs. Florida Int.

12/23: Happy to Not Be in Chapter 11 (yet) Birmingham Bowl: South Florida (-2.0) vs. Texas Tech

12/24: Aloha Was Better, But We'll Just Go With Hawaii Bowl: Fresno State vs. Houston (-2.0)

12/28: Extra Home Game for Navy Military Bowl: Navy (+2.5) vs. Virginia

12/30: Nothing Says Freedom Like Car Parts Liberty Bowl: Iowa State vs. Memphis (-3.0)

01/01: 2nd Tier Fast Food Chicken Peach Bowl: Auburn vs. UCF (+9.5)

Vegas Says: 5-2

Dr. G&W Says: 4-3

Historically speaking, the two strongest Group of Five conferences are the Mountain West and American Athletic Conference. Most years, the MWest seems to have the upper hand, but this year the Mountain West seems to be a half step down or so, which has allowed the AAC to rise to the top of the heap. With regards to the Bowl Challenge, it is also clear from the bowl match-ups that the MWest has a bit of a built in advantage. At least this year, the MWest only plays one Bowl Game against a Power 5 team, while the AAC plays 4 of 7. But, due to the overall strength of the AAC this year, they appear to be primed to have a solid to good bowl season.  Vegas likes the AAC to win all their games with the exception of the Peach Bowl, where UCF is an obvious underdog, and the Military Bowl, despite it being a home game of sorts for Navy. My spreadsheet is not quite so high on the AAC, although it actually likes Navy to beat UVA.  But, it also likes Houston and Memphis to both get upset by Fresno State and Iowa State, respectively. 

Big XII (Where X = 8)

12/23: Happy to Not Be in Chapter 11 (yet) Birmingham Bowl: South Florida vs. Texas Tech (+2.0)

12/26: 3rd Tier Fast Food Chicken Heart of Dallas Bowl: West Virginia (+4.5) vs. Utah

12/26: Worthless Agricultural Product Cactus Bowl: Kansas State (0.0) vs. UCLA

12/27: Random Regional Sporting Goods Store Texas Bowl: Texas (+1.5) vs. Missouri

12/28: National Lampoon’s Camping World Vacation Bowl: Virginia Tech vs. Oklahoma State (-6.5)

12/28: Keystone XL Pipeline Alamo Bowl: TCU (-2.5) vs. Stanford

12/30: Nothing Says Freedom Like Car Parts Liberty Bowl: Iowa State (+3.0) vs. Memphis

01/01: The Rose Bowl, Presented by Questionable Investment Advice: Georgia vs. Oklahoma (-1.0)

Vegas Says: 3-4-1

Dr. G&W: 5-3

When it comes to the Power 5 conferences, let's just say that the Big 12 is solidly in the Top 5. Prior to this year, the conference had only sent one team to the Playoffs, and I did not expect them to make it this year either, especially with a first year coach in Norman. But, the Sooners were able to win an early season game in Columbus and carry that momentum into conference play and eventually all the way to the playoffs. If the Sooners can beat UGA in the Rose Bowl (which, by the way, still sort of bugs me is not a B1G-Pac 12 game) the entire conference will be somewhat redeemed. Overall, it is a good slate of games for the Big 12, featuring 3 games against Pac 12 foes, 2 each against the SEC and AAC, and one against the ACC. Vegas, however, is not so optimistic about the conference's overall prospects, as it only opened with 3 teams favored: Oklahoma State, TCU, and Oklahoma. My spreadsheet is a bit more positive, however, as I have West Virginia, Texas, and Iowa State all winning in upset fashion. That said, my model also has Oklahoma State losing to VA Tech and Georgia as a rather large (12 points, to be exact) favorite over Oklahoma. So, that in itself begs an interesting question: is it better for the Big 12 to win a playoff game, but finish sub-500 overall in Bowl Season? Or, is it better for a majority of the teams to do well? I have a feeling most fans would trade a Sooner win for wins by WVU, Texas, and ISU.

Pac 12 (We’re Good at Math)

12/16: Pfizer Prophylactic Penicillin Las Vegas Bowl: Boise State vs. Oregon (-5.0)

12/26: 3rd Tier Fast Food Chicken Heart of Dallas Bowl: West Virginia vs. Utah (-4.5)

12/26: Worthless Agricultural Product Cactus Bowl: Kansas State vs. UCLA (0.0)

12/27: Foster Industrial Factory Farms Bowl: Purdue vs. Arizona (-3.5)

12/28: Left Coast Banking Holiday Bowl: Michigan State vs. Washington State (-3.5)

12/28: Keyston XL Pipeline Alamo Bowl: TCU vs. Stanford (+2.5)

12/29: Tainted Tex-Mex Pepto Bismol Sun Bowl: NC State vs. Arizona State (+6.0)

12/29: Springfield Tire Fire Cotton Bowl: Ohio State vs. USC (+7.0)

12/30: Commodore 64 Fiesta Bowl: Penn State vs. Washington (+1.5)

Vegas Says: 4-4-1

Dr. G&W Says: 0-9

As far as the competition for the weakest conference in the Power 5 goes, the Pac 12 is right there. As for the 9 bowl games involving Pac 12 teams, 4 of them involve a Big 10 team and 3 of them involve a Big 12 team. The other two feature teams from the ACC and Mountain West. If nothing else, this begs the question as to why the Pac 12 essentially never plays the SEC in a Bowl Game. As for the predictions, there seems to be a major disagreement here between Vegas and my spreadsheet. To put it mildly, my math says the Pac 12 sucks. Hard. Vegas likes Oregon, Utah, Arizona, and Washington State to all win, but my spreadsheet is predicting the conference to go O-fer. Considering all 9 games opened with a spread at 7-points or below, some chaos is to be expected, but likely not that much. That said, my math says that at least four Pac 12 teams should be double digit underdogs (both Arizona schools, USC, and Washington). It will be interesting to see who is right. As final note, the Pac 12 will actually wrap up all 9 games before the crowds even start to gather in Times Square.

ACC (The Top Conference in SE part of the USA)

12/26: Motor City, Pizza Pizza, Quick Lane Bowl: Duke (-4.5) vs. Northern Illinois

12/27: Our Sponsor Can't Spell "Bistro" Independence Bowl: Florida State (-14.0) vs. Southern Miss (+14.0)

12/27: Pray for a Heatwave Pinstripe Bowl: Iowa vs. Boston College (+3.0)

12/28: Extra Home Game for Navy Military Bowl: Navy vs. Virginia (-2.5)

12/28: National Lampoon’s Camping World Vacation Bowl: Virginia Tech (+6.5) vs. Oklahoma State

12/29: Slightly Classier than Mervyn's Belk Bowl: Wake Forest (-3.0) vs. Texas A&M

12/29: Tainted Tex-Mex Pepto Bismol Sun Bowl: NC State (-6.0) vs. Arizona State

12/30: Please Don't Simplify the Tax Code Too Much TaxSlayer Bowl: Louisville (-5.0) vs. Mississippi State

12/30: What's In Your Mailbox? (Junk Mail) Orange Bowl: Wisconsin vs. Miami (FL) (+6.5)

01/01: President from 24 Insurance Sugar Bowl: Clemson (-1.0) vs. Alabama

Vegas Says: 7-3

Dr. G&W Says: 7-3 (but not the same 7-3)

The ACC: it's not just a basketball conference anymore.  The build has been slow, but it has also been steady. It is perhaps a little bit obvious, now that Clemson is the defending national champs and current #1 seed in the playoffs, but they play some serious football on the Atlantic Coast these days. Regarding the conference's Bowl line-up, it features 3 contests with Group of Five teams, 3 SEC match-ups, 2 with the Big Ten, and one each with the Pac 12 and Big 12. It is about as balanced of a line-up as you could draw up. And, according to both Vegas and my spreadsheet, it looks like it is going to be a good holiday season for the ACC, as both measures see 7 wins in 10 games. Both sources see losses for Boston College and Miami. Vegas likes Virginia to beat Navy, while my math likes the Midshipmen. But, my spreadsheet like VA Tech in the upset over Oklahoma State. That all said, the conference will ultimately be judged by the outcome of the playoff Sugar Bowl rubber game match-up of Clemson and Alabama. If the Tigers can eliminated Bama two years in a row, the ACC will have a very legitimate claim as the best conference in the land.

SEC (Chant It Until You Believe It In Your Heart)

12/27: Random Regional Sporting Goods Store Texas Bowl: Texas vs. Missouri (-1.5)

12/29: Slightly Classier than Mervyn's Belk Bowl: Wake Forest vs. Texas A&M (+3.0)

12/29: Mortgage Crisis Music City Bowl: Northwestern vs. Kentucky (+7.0)

12/30: Please Don't Simplify the Tax Code Too Much TaxSlayer Bowl: Louisville vs. Mississippi State (+5.0)

01/01: Where's the Beef? (Shouldn’t at Least One of These Teams Be Ranked?) Outback Bowl: Michigan vs. South Carolina (+8.5)

01/01: 2nd Tier Fast Food Chicken Peach Bowl: Auburn (-9.5) vs. UCF

01/01: Anyone Remember OurHouse.com? Citrus Bowl: Notre Dame vs. LSU (-2.0)

01/01: The Rose Bowl, Presented by Questionable Investment Advice: Georgia (+1.0) vs. Oklahoma

01/01: President from 24 Insurance Sugar Bowl: Clemson vs. Alabama (+1.0)

Vegas Says: 3-6

Dr. G&W Says: 2-7

I am typically as critical as anyone in the SEC, but I will say this: they do play a challenging bowl schedule. Of the 9 games to be played over the holidays, 8 of them against against Power 5 level opponents, and the lone exception is literally the best team out of the Group of 5: UCF. Of the 8, three of the games are against ACC opponents, there are two games each with Big Ten and Big 12 opponents, and the remaining game is against Notre Dame. Vegas, however, does not expect much from the SEC, as only 3 of the 9 teams opened as favorites: Missouri, Auburn, and LSU. My spreadsheet is even less optimistic, as it only like Auburn and Georgia to win. That said, the three headline games (the two playoff games plus the Citrus Bowl) all have very tight spreads, so literally anything could happen. While most eyes will be on the two playoff teams and whether or not we will see a gag-inducing all-SEC Championship Game, I am also quite interested in the SEC-ACC side drama. As stated above, the ACC is on the rise and they also just so happen to by favored in all 3 ACC-SEC Bowl games, including the biggest one (Clemson vs. Bama). If the SEC were to loss both Play-off games and all three ACC games, it is going to be really hard for the SEC apologists to spin the result as anything other than a disaster.

Big Ten (using a base 14 counting system)

12/27: Pray for a Heatwave Pinstripe Bowl: Iowa (-3.0) vs. Boston College

12/27: Foster Industrial Factory Farms Bowl: Purdue (+3.5) vs. Arizona

12/28: Left Coast Holiday Bowl: Michigan State (+3.5) vs. Washington State

12/29: Mortgage Crisis Music City Bowl: Northwestern (-7.0) vs. Kentucky

12/29: Springfield Tire Fire Cotton Bowl: Ohio State (-7.0) vs. USC

12/30: Commodore 64 Fiesta Bowl: Penn State (-1.5) vs. Washington

12/30: What's In Your Mailbox? (Junk Mail) Orange Bowl: Wisconsin (-6.5) vs. Miami (FL)

01/01: Where's the Beef? (Shouldn’t at Least One of These Teams Be Ranked?) Outback Bowl: Michigan (-8.5) vs. South Carolina

Vegas Says: 6-2

Dr. G&W Says: 8-0

Finally, there is the Big Ten. Similar to the SEC, the Big Ten bowl line-up is challenging, as there are only Power 5 conferences on the docket: 4 Pac 12 teams, 2 SEC team and 2 ACC teams. But, in contrast to the SEC, Vegas actually likes the Big Ten in 6 of the 8 contests, with only Purdue and MSU not favored. In contrast, and quite surprisingly, my spreadsheet actually likes all 8 Big Ten teams to win. In either case, we all know how the Big Ten got shut out of the playoffs and wound up losing the Citrus Bowl in the process. One of the positive hidden benefits of this scenario is that the Big Ten found each of its 8 eligible teams in very favorable match-ups.  In fact, 4 of the 5 Bowl games involving two Power 5 teams where the spread is over 6 points involve a Big Ten team as the favorite. So, even though a national title is off the table for the conference, there is a real chance here to ride some positive momentum into next year. They just need to get it done. If we add everything up, both the Vegas spread and my spreadsheet suggest that the Big Ten will finish with the highest wining percentage among all conferences and will thus claim the (not-so) coveted Bowl Challenge Cup. That all said, I don't think that I would shed any tears if South Carolina were to upset Michigan. After all, 7-1 would still be pretty good. 

That is all for now. In the mean time, Go State, Beat the Cougars.

P.S. In case anyone was wondering, my spreadsheet likes Georgia to beat Clemson in the National Title Game, but only by the slimmest of margins (which mathematically is 0.6 points)