Remember the good old days? For example, earlier last week? Do you remember the yarns about how MSU would need to score maybe 20 or 24 points to outscore the high-powered Nebraska offense? Wow. Double digit points. That sure sounds nice. Heck, it seems like a coon's age since we have even seen 10 points around these parts. Shucks. And, I hear in the big city there's this thing called a "touchdown" where a team actually makes it all the way down the field into that fancy painted area called the "endzone." Wouldn't that be something to see? I reckon it sure would be.
So, the Spartans went down Nebraska and couldn't muster more than 6 points. The defense sure looked purty again, but the offense is about as useful right now as a pocket in the your underwear or a submarine with a screen door. I can't blame those boys too much, though, as most of the skill players are beat up real bad and it looked as cold as a witch's tights out there on the old boob-tube. My honest take on the game was basically, "Aw, Shucks!" It sure would have been nice to finish 8-4 this year with a shot at 9-4, but I am not going to get my overalls in a twist about it. I think those fancy mathematicians in the big city would call this part of the season a "null set." We just can't use it to judge much at all.
I am just a simple country boy at heart, but the way I see it, MSU's future still looks purty bright. Sure, it is disappointing that MSU couldn't muster a record better than 7-5 in a year when the Big Ten is obviously very down. But, the reasons for the problems are pretty obvious (mostly injuries) and I do not see this as a long term trend. Some other folks might not agree with that, but that is where I stand. The head guy still has a pretty good head on his shoulders and think he will figure this all out.
Going forward, MSU just needs to avoid disaster next week against those city-slickers from New Jersey and everything will be just fine. Back in early October after the loss to Northwestern, I think most MSU fans would have taken 7-5 faster than green grass through a goose. I don't think that it makes much sense to cry over the spilled milk of one more loss. Besides, as I have been preaching for a few weeks, I don't think that this game will actually impact MSU's bowl position. I still think that odds are over 50% that MSU winds up in Tampa on New Year's Day against a very beatable team like Missouri. I think if MSU can get healed up and win that game, Spartan Nation would be as happy as a flea in a doghouse. Aw, Shucks!
National Overview
Here's my results chart for Week 12. It was an insanely rough week for the spreadsheet, as it somehow when 20-40 (33%) against the spread, bringing my year-to-date numbers to 299-355, 46%. The FPI went 34-26 (57%) bringing its tally to 332-320 (51%) YTD. But... I did go 3-2 for covers (60%), bringing that total to 65-52 (51% YTD). Also, it was a tough week for a lot of teams. The Top 3 teams this year in the Big Ten East (UofM, PSU, and OSU) all failed to cover, as did Oklahoma and Washington. West Virginia lost straight up.
As for upsets, I count only 10 total (none of which were over an 8-point spread), which is a bit low compared to the ~14 that I predicted from my simulation. Both my spreadsheet and the FPI only got 1 correct pick combined (my pick of UCLA over USC). Year-to-date, I am 40-57 (41%) for upsets, while the FPI is 26-23 (53%). The FPI hasn't had a correct upset pick since Week 9.
Big Ten
As I think about the results in the Big Ten this week, I can't but picture Princess Leia shouting, "It's a trap!" There weren't actually that many surprising outcomes, but several teams seemed to get that trap-game-like scare. In the Big Ten East, as mentioned above, none of the Top 3 teams covered. Ohio State essentially should have lost, but somehow escaped College Park with a win. Michigan trailed at half time to Indiana, and Penn State looked a bit lackluster in a 13-point win over Rutgers. Of course, Nebraska also managed to "upset" MSU, although I think that line drifted over to the Husker side of the ledger by kick-off. But, at the end of the day, there is really no change to the situation. The Michigan-Ohio State game next week will decide who goes to Indy, Penn State is a borderline NY6 team, and I still project MSU to the Outback Bowl.
In the West, however, there was a bit more interesting drama. Northwestern has, of course, already cliched the West, but the Vegas line for their game at Minnesota had shifted over to the Gophers by kick-offs. But, the Wildcats escaped Minneapolis fairly easily with the win, which should boost their bowl position if they fail to win in Indy. The bowl picture was also clarified a bit in West Lafayette, as the Badger's managed to edge the Boilers in OT. As a result, the winner of next week's Purdue-IU game will be bowl eligible at 6-6 while the loser won't even have an old oaken bucket to pee into.
So, as we stand now, the Big Ten Bowl picture is pretty interesting. Michigan and Ohio State will almost certainly both be in the NY6, and Penn State might grab the last spot as well, depending on how the Big 12 race shakes out. If Penn State misses out on the NY6, I think they are a lock to the Citrus Bowl. Not all the projections agree with this statement (as many somehow think Northwestern will get the Citrus Bowl over PSU) but I think that they are wrong. A worse record and a small fan base is a little like being the scrawny kid with glasses in the middle-school-dodge-ball-game of bowl selection.
The problem is there is a cluster of B1G teams that will all finish with either 7 or 8 wins, most likely (MSU, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Northwestern). Those teams should slot into the next four Big Ten bowls which are, in order: Outback, Holiday, Gator/Music City, and Pinstripe. The winner of the Purdue/Indiana game will also be 6-6 and should be slotted for the next bowl down, which is the Redbox Bowl (former known as the Foster Farms Bowl in Santa Clara, CA). The bowls have a contractual obligation to take 5 different teams over 6 years. As we are in year 5 of 6, the bowls could take a repeat team, but this could potentially back them into a corner next year, and I doubt they will risk it. So, if we knock out the teams that have played in the Bowls recently, we can create a type of logic puzzle matrix:
If The Season Ended Today, That Would Be Weird...
After this week's action, it's time to update my conference and NY6 Bowl projections.
ACC: Clemson over Pitt
Big Ten: Michigan over Northwestern
SEC: Alabama over Georgia
Big 12: West Virginia over Texas
Pac 12: Washington State over Utah
I am assuming that Notre Dame beats USC, and I will finally give in and admit that UCF is likely to once again run the table and make the NY6. For some reason, I find this boring, but whatever, Go Knights! The resulting NY6 bowls would be:
Cotton Bowl: #1 Alabama vs. #4 Arrogant Asses
Orange Bow: #2 Clemson vs. #3 Notre Dame
Rose Bowl: Washington State vs. Ohio State
Sugar Bowl: Georgia vs. West Virginia
Fiesta Bowl: LSU vs. Oklahoma
Peach Bowl: UCF vs. Florida
I honestly don't feel good at all about the WVU over both Oklahoma and Texas picks, but that it what my math is saying, so I am going to let it ride. If West Virginia does get beat by Oklahoma, that opens a NY6 slot for another 9-3 team, and Penn State seems to be the next team up. But, I also wonder if Washington is going to nip Wazzou next week. This would set-up the Cougars to slide nicely into the Fiesta Bowl instead of Penn State (likely against Georgia) and the Washington-Utah winner would go to the Rose Bowl. The LSU-Oklahoma match-up would then move into the Sugar Bowl.
As for MSU, unless State loses to Rutgers, I still like the Outback Bowl match-up with Missouri for the reasons mentioned above. That is all for now. Let's get a good crowd to send off the seniors in style, of course with a win to go along with it. As always, Go State, Beat Rutgers!
So, the Spartans went down Nebraska and couldn't muster more than 6 points. The defense sure looked purty again, but the offense is about as useful right now as a pocket in the your underwear or a submarine with a screen door. I can't blame those boys too much, though, as most of the skill players are beat up real bad and it looked as cold as a witch's tights out there on the old boob-tube. My honest take on the game was basically, "Aw, Shucks!" It sure would have been nice to finish 8-4 this year with a shot at 9-4, but I am not going to get my overalls in a twist about it. I think those fancy mathematicians in the big city would call this part of the season a "null set." We just can't use it to judge much at all.
I am just a simple country boy at heart, but the way I see it, MSU's future still looks purty bright. Sure, it is disappointing that MSU couldn't muster a record better than 7-5 in a year when the Big Ten is obviously very down. But, the reasons for the problems are pretty obvious (mostly injuries) and I do not see this as a long term trend. Some other folks might not agree with that, but that is where I stand. The head guy still has a pretty good head on his shoulders and think he will figure this all out.
Going forward, MSU just needs to avoid disaster next week against those city-slickers from New Jersey and everything will be just fine. Back in early October after the loss to Northwestern, I think most MSU fans would have taken 7-5 faster than green grass through a goose. I don't think that it makes much sense to cry over the spilled milk of one more loss. Besides, as I have been preaching for a few weeks, I don't think that this game will actually impact MSU's bowl position. I still think that odds are over 50% that MSU winds up in Tampa on New Year's Day against a very beatable team like Missouri. I think if MSU can get healed up and win that game, Spartan Nation would be as happy as a flea in a doghouse. Aw, Shucks!
National Overview
Here's my results chart for Week 12. It was an insanely rough week for the spreadsheet, as it somehow when 20-40 (33%) against the spread, bringing my year-to-date numbers to 299-355, 46%. The FPI went 34-26 (57%) bringing its tally to 332-320 (51%) YTD. But... I did go 3-2 for covers (60%), bringing that total to 65-52 (51% YTD). Also, it was a tough week for a lot of teams. The Top 3 teams this year in the Big Ten East (UofM, PSU, and OSU) all failed to cover, as did Oklahoma and Washington. West Virginia lost straight up.
As for upsets, I count only 10 total (none of which were over an 8-point spread), which is a bit low compared to the ~14 that I predicted from my simulation. Both my spreadsheet and the FPI only got 1 correct pick combined (my pick of UCLA over USC). Year-to-date, I am 40-57 (41%) for upsets, while the FPI is 26-23 (53%). The FPI hasn't had a correct upset pick since Week 9.
Big Ten
As I think about the results in the Big Ten this week, I can't but picture Princess Leia shouting, "It's a trap!" There weren't actually that many surprising outcomes, but several teams seemed to get that trap-game-like scare. In the Big Ten East, as mentioned above, none of the Top 3 teams covered. Ohio State essentially should have lost, but somehow escaped College Park with a win. Michigan trailed at half time to Indiana, and Penn State looked a bit lackluster in a 13-point win over Rutgers. Of course, Nebraska also managed to "upset" MSU, although I think that line drifted over to the Husker side of the ledger by kick-off. But, at the end of the day, there is really no change to the situation. The Michigan-Ohio State game next week will decide who goes to Indy, Penn State is a borderline NY6 team, and I still project MSU to the Outback Bowl.
In the West, however, there was a bit more interesting drama. Northwestern has, of course, already cliched the West, but the Vegas line for their game at Minnesota had shifted over to the Gophers by kick-offs. But, the Wildcats escaped Minneapolis fairly easily with the win, which should boost their bowl position if they fail to win in Indy. The bowl picture was also clarified a bit in West Lafayette, as the Badger's managed to edge the Boilers in OT. As a result, the winner of next week's Purdue-IU game will be bowl eligible at 6-6 while the loser won't even have an old oaken bucket to pee into.
So, as we stand now, the Big Ten Bowl picture is pretty interesting. Michigan and Ohio State will almost certainly both be in the NY6, and Penn State might grab the last spot as well, depending on how the Big 12 race shakes out. If Penn State misses out on the NY6, I think they are a lock to the Citrus Bowl. Not all the projections agree with this statement (as many somehow think Northwestern will get the Citrus Bowl over PSU) but I think that they are wrong. A worse record and a small fan base is a little like being the scrawny kid with glasses in the middle-school-dodge-ball-game of bowl selection.
The problem is there is a cluster of B1G teams that will all finish with either 7 or 8 wins, most likely (MSU, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Northwestern). Those teams should slot into the next four Big Ten bowls which are, in order: Outback, Holiday, Gator/Music City, and Pinstripe. The winner of the Purdue/Indiana game will also be 6-6 and should be slotted for the next bowl down, which is the Redbox Bowl (former known as the Foster Farms Bowl in Santa Clara, CA). The bowls have a contractual obligation to take 5 different teams over 6 years. As we are in year 5 of 6, the bowls could take a repeat team, but this could potentially back them into a corner next year, and I doubt they will risk it. So, if we knock out the teams that have played in the Bowls recently, we can create a type of logic puzzle matrix:
Recall that both the Gator / Music Bowl and Purdue and Indiana are either/or propositions. The challenge is that the three likely 8-4 teams are "no repeats" for the top bowl (Outback) while the two likely 6-6 teams are "no repeats" for the bottom bowl (Redbox) or possibly the bottom two Bowls. Using a process of elimination where you start from the top, filling each bowl with either the best remaining team or picking a team if they have no remaining bowl options, you get the following matrix if Purdue beats Indiana:
In this case, Iowa perhaps gets shafted a bit, but their resume is clearly the weakest of the 8-4 teams, as in fact they went 0-5 against the other Big Ten bowl teams they faced in this scenario. If Indiana beats Purdue, things get a bit messier:
In this case, the "no repeat" rule brings IU up to either the Gator or Music City Bowl and Wisconsin would likely slide to New York City and the Pinstripe Bowl.
There are a lot of plausible situations where things could play out very differently. If Penn State makes a NY6 Bowl, either Northwestern or Wisconsin would slide up to the Citrus Bowl and the Redbox Bowl is out of play. If Minnesota upsets Wisconsin, the Gophers would become bowl eligible, in which case they would get the Redbox Bowl and the Purdue / Indiana winner would slide into Detroit for the Quick Lane Bowl, and Iowa would likely move up to the Music City Bowl. Or, I suppose the Outback Bowl or the Big Ten itself could dictate that Penn State or even Wisconsin (despite the no repeat clause) should play in the Outback Bowl and then MSU would drop to the Pinstripe or Redbox Bowl. In any event, it is a fun puzzle to try to solve.
Finally, I will include my Big Ten prediction matrix showing my current odds to win the Big Ten as well as a summary of my bowl projections.
ACC
Coming into the week, it looked like there might still be a bit of drama left in the ACC race. Virginia still had a shot at the Coastal Division if they won out and Pitt lost out. But... instead Pitt chopped down Wake Forest, and Virginia was a bit too Cavalier in their road trip to Georgia Tech. So, Coach Darduzzi will be taking his Panthers to the ACC Championship Game in two week for a cat fight with the Clemson Tigers. Speaking of Clemson, it looks for a minute or two as if Duke might put a scare into Clemson, but then the Tigers woke up and won 35-6. In other action, Florida State managed to upset Boston College while Miami earned themselves a bowl bid by knocking off Virginia Tech is a game I thought back in August would decide the Coastal Division Title. Guess not.
In the big picture, 9 ACC teams have now reached the 6-win mark and bowl eligibility, and in the table below I give my current (rather cursory) bowl projections. Three other teams (Wake Forest, Virginia Tech, and Florida State) all in principle could clinch a bowl bid next week, but I don't project any of those teams as a favorite.
SEC
It was a cup-cake eating holiday (rivalry week Mardi Gras) so nothing really happened down south this week. Actually, that's not quite true. South Carolina did get to 6 wins (albeit against Chattanooga) to lock in a bowl game and Vanderbilt beat Ole Miss and now they will get a shot at bowl eligibility next week vs. Tennessee. That is probably the biggest game of next week in the SEC... right? I am not going to bother to fact check that one.
Big 12
It seems like there have been several weeks this season where the Big 12 has provided some of the most interesting drama of all of the Power 5 conferences, and this week was no different. First off, Texas scored a significant win over Iowa State in what was essentially 2nd place elimination game. Then West Virginia got beat by Oklahoma State which drops the Mountaineers into a second place tie with the Longhorns. The Sooners sure flirted with a bit a danger in giving up 40 points to Kansas, but they scored 55 so it was basically fine. Now, the endgame situation is pretty clear. As long as Texas can win at Kansas next week, they have secured the 2nd seed in the Big 12 Championship Game. The 1st seed will go to the winner of the Oklahoma / West Virginia game, which will be played in Morgantown, just to keep things as interesting as possible. The spreadsheet still loves WVU, but I do not expect them to beat Oklahoma. I guess we will see.
As for the bowl picture, Oklahoma State got over the hump this week with their upset win, while Texas Tech got bowl-blocked by Kansas State in upset fashion. TCU similarly blocked Baylor path. Now, all four teams sit at 5-6 with one game to go. Baylor and Texas Tech will decide the bowl participant on the field next week, while both TCU (vs. OK State) and K-State (at Iowa State) will likely be favored to be staying at home for the holidays.
Pac 12
Out West, Arizona State had a shot to win the Pac 12 South if they could find a way to win out, but the Sun Devils got nibbled by the Ducks up in Eugene. Meanwhile, Utah beat the head coach right out of the Colorado Buffalos, and in the process locked up the South Title. In two weeks, the Utes will face the winner of next week's Washington / Washington State battle in Pullman. As for the Bowl watch, 7 teams are at or past the 6 win mark and three other squads (Arizona, USC, and Colorado) could clinch a bid next week. USC found themselves in this position by losing to cross-town rival UCLA this week. Unfortunately for them, I do not project any of those three teams to win.
Independents / Group of Five
The Fight Irish continued their tour of over-rated and / or under-performing teams this week by easily squeezing the Orangemen of Syracuse in NYC (note: file under "over-rated"). At 11-0, they might already safely by in the Playoffs, but if I were them I would go ahead and beat the pants of USC next week, just to be sure (note: file under "under-performing.")
In Group of Five action, UCF continued to roll over the competition, despite my predictions that they would not win their division or conference. By beating Cincinnati, the Knights have now clinched the East Division of the AAC and our just a single win away from claiming their 2nd straight NY6 appearance. Fine. Have it your way. Now, the only team that could really block their path is whoever wins the Houston at Memphis match-up next week and takes the West crown. Overall, my math now give UCF an 88% chance to win the AAC, which would certainly earn them a spot in the NY6.
If (for example) Memphis were to upset UCF in two weeks, who would be the next most likely team to take that NY6 spot? At 8-4 Memphis would be a long shot, and so would 9-3 Houston. The next conference up is the Mountain West. Fresno State locked up the West title last week by beating San Diego State, while up in the Mountains, next week's winner of the Utah State at Boise State game will do the same. All three teams can get to at least 10 wins, and whichever of those teams emerges from the Mountain mist is likely to be the NY6 bid back-up plan if UCF does falter.
Other than that, in #MACtion, both Buffalo and Northern Illinois got beat this week, but because it is the MAC, both teams are still in the driver's seats in their divisions. Actually, NIU clinched this week due to Western Michigan's loss to Ball State. UAB couldn't quite challenge Texas A&M as I had hoped, but they are still big favorites in the C-USA, as is Appalachian State in the Sun Belt. I am attaching the updated conference projection tables below for completeness.
and finally...
After this week's action, it's time to update my conference and NY6 Bowl projections.
ACC: Clemson over Pitt
Big Ten: Michigan over Northwestern
SEC: Alabama over Georgia
Big 12: West Virginia over Texas
Pac 12: Washington State over Utah
I am assuming that Notre Dame beats USC, and I will finally give in and admit that UCF is likely to once again run the table and make the NY6. For some reason, I find this boring, but whatever, Go Knights! The resulting NY6 bowls would be:
Cotton Bowl: #1 Alabama vs. #4 Arrogant Asses
Orange Bow: #2 Clemson vs. #3 Notre Dame
Rose Bowl: Washington State vs. Ohio State
Sugar Bowl: Georgia vs. West Virginia
Fiesta Bowl: LSU vs. Oklahoma
Peach Bowl: UCF vs. Florida
I honestly don't feel good at all about the WVU over both Oklahoma and Texas picks, but that it what my math is saying, so I am going to let it ride. If West Virginia does get beat by Oklahoma, that opens a NY6 slot for another 9-3 team, and Penn State seems to be the next team up. But, I also wonder if Washington is going to nip Wazzou next week. This would set-up the Cougars to slide nicely into the Fiesta Bowl instead of Penn State (likely against Georgia) and the Washington-Utah winner would go to the Rose Bowl. The LSU-Oklahoma match-up would then move into the Sugar Bowl.
As for MSU, unless State loses to Rutgers, I still like the Outback Bowl match-up with Missouri for the reasons mentioned above. That is all for now. Let's get a good crowd to send off the seniors in style, of course with a win to go along with it. As always, Go State, Beat Rutgers!
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