2018: Week 13 Recap: Intervention

Well, this week's game did not exactly go as planned, but at the end of the day, a win is a win, even if it might have sent Spartan Nation through a series of heart palpitations on Saturday evening.  Yes, the offense is still struggling and yes the defense is still awesome.  Neither of these things are a surprise.  Do changes need to occur on the coaching staff?  Perhaps, but in my opinion the focus should be on the run game and the offensive line and not on the passing game or the Dave Warner specifically.  But, that is just one man's opinion.  Coach D probably does need to intervene in some way to shore up the obvious issues.  But, he also knows way more than anyone else about what is really going on and how to potentially fix it.  I am confident that he will do what needs to be done to but the program in the best shape to continue to be a perennial contender.

MSU finishes the 2018 regular season at 7-5.  After the loss to Northwestern on October 6th, I would say 90%+ of all MSU fans would have taken this result without a second thought.  Yet, somehow I sense most MSU fans are a bit cranky about the way the season played out.  Now, don't get me wrong. This is a disappointing season based on our preseason expectations and the surprising weakness of the Big Ten as a whole.  If MSU was even close to where we were supposed to be, we would be sitting at 10-2 at worst and a shoe-in for a nice NY6 Bowl.  But considering the health situation on the offense and I think 7-5 is about as good as we could have reasonably expected. Based on the current power ranking that my spreadsheet spits out, MSU is ranked #44 and should have only won 5 games.  So, I think that 7 is A-OK. As for any other commentary on the Rutgers game or the State of State, I would suggest the following:

1) Burn the tape of this weekend's game and never speak of it again.  Let's treat this one like Star Trek V and pretend that it never happened.

2) Let's judge this MSU team and the offense based on how they perform in the bowl game.

So, let's focus on that. MSU will be playing in a bowl game in a few weeks.  I have been steadfast in my projection that MSU will get the bid to the Outback Bowl and nothing happened this weekend to change my opinion.  My confidence level is in the 80-90% certainty range.  The ability to play an SEC team on January 1st in Florida is a very nice consolation prize for the season. Let's enjoy and appreciate it.

As for the opponent, it looks now like Kentucky or Texas A&M are the most likely opponents.  Florida seems likely to make the NY6, while LSU is now most likely headed for the Citrus Bowl.  So, the Wildcats (9-3) and Aggies (8-4) look like the next best options for the SEC.  The Outback Bowl seems to usually take SEC East teams, so my gut says to expect the Wildcats, but you never know.  The SEC bowl selection process is much more murky than the Big Ten, so it is honestly hard to say how this will play out.  I assume strong rumors will start circulating early this week.

So, the real question is how much better can this MSU offense get over the next 4-5 weeks?  I have no idea.  But, it the last several years, MSU has used the bowl practices to heal up, sharpen up, and get some of the younger players up to speed.  I expect that this trend will continue.  Will Brian Lewerke be at or close to 100% by January? How about the O-line or WR corp?  I think that it is reasonable to assume that the answer to most of those questions will be positive.  If this does happen, and MSU's offense can jump from miserable to serviceable, well, I think we are in business.  While I expect MSU to be a double-digit underdog in Tampa, I think the offense just might surprise everyone.  If that happens, another Outback Bowl win would be a nice end to an otherwise disappointing season.  More importantly, it would be a great preview of what is to come in 2019. Stay tuned.

National Overview

Here is the my results chart for Week 13.  Both my predictions and the FPI went 32-32 (50%) against the spread for the week. I am 331-387 (46%) year-to-date, wile the FPI is at 364-352 (51%). I did go 4-3 for covers this week, bringing my total to 69-65 (51.5%) for the regular season.

Here is my upset table for Week 13. I count a total of 18 upsets, which is slightly above the 15 that I predicted.  Both the FPI and my spreadsheet hit 50% this week at 1-1 and 2-2 respectively.  Year-to-date, I went 42-59 (42%) while the conservative FPI was 27-24 (53%).

The craziest result this week was Wake Forest's 59-7 win over Duke.  Duke was favored by 12.5.  Since the standard deviation is a well-established 14ish points (14.112 to be exact), this result is~4.6 standard deviations from the mean (i.e. the spread). If the distribution was truly Normal / Gaussian, that is a 1 in 400,000 event, which translates to a once in ~500 seasons!

But, when I checked my database of spreads, I count 7 other games (out of over 10,000) since 2001 with > 4 standard deviations from the spread.  So, 1 in 400,000 is a bit high. Perhaps 1 in 40,000 would be closer.  But, this is the biggest deviation "on record" since 2001.  The OSU-Wisconsin BTCG in 2014 was 4.499, which was the biggest deviation in my database to date. This essentially suggests that the "tails" of the football score distribution relative to the spread deviate from the true Gaussian distribution.  Extreme events are a bit more likely that the distribution suggests.

Big Ten 

It was an action-packed weekend in the B1G that had several games with serious bowl implications.  Starting at the bottom and moving up, Purdue managed to beat Indiana to claim both the Old Oaken Bucket as well a bowl berth with a 6-6 record.  Perhaps more importantly, Minnesota upset Wisconsin to also move to 6-6, while simultaneously dropping Wisconsin to 7-5.  As for the other middling bowl teams, Iowa, Northwestern, and MSU all won, but failed to cover.  Closer to the top of the charts, Penn State put Maryland out of their collective misery to finish at 9-3.

As a result, the Big Ten looks to have seven non-NY6 bowl teams.  Minnesota's win actually helps clarify the situation a bit, as the Gophers can play in the Redbox Bowl (which Purdue played in last year) while the Boilers can go to the Quick Lane Bowl.  At 7-5, Wisconsin now becomes the mostly likely team to play in Yankee Stadium in the Pinstripe Bowl. 

Penn State's convincing win solidifies their claim to the Citrus Bowl, assuming they do not qualify for the NY6, which I think is unlikely.  If this does happen, Northwestern would be the obvious option to take their place in Orlando.  In any event, MSU is still essentially the only team on the board that the Outback Bowl can take.  That just leaves Iowa and Northwestern to play in either the Holiday Bowl or the Gator / Music City Bowl.  Both teams are fine for the Holiday Bowl, but Northwestern cannot play in the Music City Bowl while Iowa cannot play in the Gator Bowl.  The process to determine which bowl (Gator or Music City) the Big Ten gets is not clear, but right now I will predict that the Wildcats will be in San Diego and Iowa will be in Nashville.  

And then, there was that other game on the schedule this week.  Some people like to refer to it as "The Game" (which is actually the Stanford-Cal game, but who's counting).  But, it wasn't a game so much as it was something else.  We should just call a spade a spade and admit what it really was.

It was an Intervention.

The way I see it, it went down like this.  Older Brother has been off the wagon and on a bender for a month and a half now.  It was starting to get serious.  His destructive behavior that always happens when he wins just a little was starting to really rear its ugly head.  He was once against becoming an embarrassment to the whole Big Ten family.  The last chance was the annual Thanksgiving Dinner, which this time was hosted by Cousin Brutus down in Columbus.  Brutus seems to have a way knocking Old Brother down a peg or two in situations like this.  

This year has been a bit of a struggle for Brutus, however, and most of the family thought that he didn't have it in him to really keep Older Brother under control.  But, as soon as Older Brother arrived and reached for the bottle of champagne, Brutus immediately knocked over the kid's table, pinned Older Brother down with it and shouted:

"No! Not today! You are going to clean up your act starting RIGHT NOW!  No more winning for you! No East Division Title! No trip to Indy! No playoffs!  You know you can't handle it! You are sobering up NOW!"

It was really quite the scene. For the rest of the day, Old Brother just sat in the corner by himself, sobbing quietly.  Personally, I think that he will be OK and will stay sober for the next month or so.  New Years is the next tough holiday to get through.  But, while Older Brother likes to talk about how much he likes to party on New Years, most of the time he just orders a Sprite at the bar and pretends that it is a gin and tonic.  I expect this year will be no different.

SEC

The final weekend in SEC action came and went with few unexpected results.  Actually, I count no upsets in the week's contests.  As expected, Alabama, Georgia, Florida, Kentucky, and Ole Miss all won their rivalry games, and all five teams even covered.  Missouri blanked Arkansas as well in a game that might be a rivalry?  I don't actually care know.

As for bowl positioning, there were two other games that look to have an impact on the national scene.  First, Vanderbilt knocked off Tennessee in a bowl berth play-in game.  What did they win? A chance to play another game against an AAC opponent in Birmingham! As for the other game, Texas A&M managed to outlast LSU in a 14-OT thriller that lastest 14 hours and ended at 4 AM local time... at least that is what it felt like when I was watching it.  (It was actually just 7-OT, at least 3 of which were defense-optional). 

As a result, LSU finishes at 9-3 instead of 10-2 and their odds at scoring a NY6 bid have decreased a bit.  With Georgia and Alabama currently as shoe-ins for the NY6, Florida and LSU are likely battling for the remaining at-large NY6 spots.  My current best guess is that Florida will make it in, due in part to their head-to-head win over LSU, while the Tigers will get left out, but it is hard to say.  The play-off rankings that will come out on Tuesday will give us a good hint as to where they stand.

ACC

For a conference whose race has essentially been over a several weeks now, the ACC did their best to provide a fun ending to the season.  Now, there wasn't any major drama, as Clemson beat their cross-state rivals from South Carolina and none of the other ACC teams won their SEC rivalry match-ups.  Coastal Division Champ Pitt actually got battered by the Hurricanes, but that result doesn't actually matter. 

The real fun happened in the middle parts of the standings, as three notable upsets occurred which in combination will likely muddle the ACC bowl picture a bit.  First, Syracuse upset Boston College to run their record to 9-3.  Considering this is the second best record in the league, it should be enough to ensure the Orange have a National Lampoon's Camping World Bowl vacation coming up in a few weeks.  As mentioned above, Wake Forest exorcised the Blue Devils in a game where the final margin of the game deviated more from the spread than any other game in the past 17 years (at least).  Finally, Virginia Tech kept their bowl hopes alive by beating Virginia.

As the dust settles, it looks like eleven ACC teams are going to make a bowl game (assuming VA Tech can beat Marshall next week in their Hurricane Florence make-up game) and over half of those teams (6) do so with a record of 7-5.  Good luck trying to figure out where to place those teams into bowls.

Big 12

As I stated in this week's preview, there was still an awful lot to play for in the Big 12.  The first order of business was for Texas to clinch the 2-seed in next week's Big 12 Title game.  All the Longhorns had to do was to beat Kansas, which they did, but only by 7.  The second order of business was to determine who would face Texas in the aforementioned Championship game.  That was settled out in Morgantown, WV as the Sooners managed to edge the Mountaineers, 59-56.  So, now Oklahoma has a chance to avenge their sole loss on the year against Texas next week.  If they are successful, the Sooners will have a very compelling case to replace Michigan as the final team in the playoff.

Finally, the 3rd order of business was to see if any additional Big 12 teams would be able to reach that magical 6-win threshold in order to go bowling. We knew before the week started that either Baylor or Texas Tech would get to 6 wins (as they were playing each other) and as it turned out, the Baylor Bears upset the Red Raiders, got the victory, and are now making plans for the holidays.  Baylor was not the only team, however, to earn a bowl berth in upset fashion, as TCU got the best of Oklahoma State to secure yet another bowl spot for the conference, bring the total to seven teams.

Pac 12

There were some tense moments for a few teams out west this week as well.  Both Utah and Arizona State were on the ropes at times versus BYU and Arizona, but both teams made late charges to secure victory over their in-state rivals.  In the case of the Sun Devils, they actually prevented the Wildcats from becoming bowl eligible, which I imagine came with an extra layer of satisfaction.  At the end of the regular season, the Utes and the Sun Devils were the only two teams in the Pac 12 South to make it to at least six wins.

The biggest game of the weekend, however, was the Apple Cup in the great state of Washington.  The Cougars were favored to win this contest, but the Huskies were more built for winter weather and wound up mushing to a 28-15 victory.  Washington will now face Utah in the Pac 12 title game with a trip to Pasadena on the line.  But, it might not be all bad for the conference, as Washington State is now at 10-2 and would be a strong candidate for the Fiesta Bowl.  LSU (9-3) seems to be their toughest competition for this spot, so it will be interesting to see how this plays out.

Independents / Group of Five

Although the Irish got off to a slow start in L.A., the Trojans eventually went limp, leaving the Fighting Irish with a very happy ending.  At 12-0 and in the clubhouse, Notre Dame is absolutely in the playoffs.  While the SEC Championship Game could potentially scramble things, a date with Clemson in the Orange Bowl is a highly likely next step.

As for the Group of Five, in the American Athletic Conference, Memphis beat Houston to secure a date with UCF next week for the AAC Title.  UCF had no trouble beating I-4 rivals South Florida, but it came at a steep price.  UCF's quarterback, McKenzie Milton suffered a horrific leg injury, which certainly makes next week's game against Memphis a bit more interesting.  UCF only managed to beat the Tigers by a single point back in October.  Can they beat them again without Milton?  

If UCF wins, they are in the NY6, no questions asked.  However, if Memphis wins, the Tigers will not make the NY6 at 9-4.  So, the torch would naturally get passed to the Mountain West Champ, who after this week's results will be the winner of this week's match between Boise State and Fresno State.  The Broncos qualified for the contest by beating Utah State after dark on Saturday night and they already beat Frenso once this year back on November 10th.  I would think that it is likely that Boise will win the rematch as well.  If UCF loses and Boise wins, a Fiesta Bowl match-up between Washington State and Boise would make an awful lot of sense.

As for the other Group of Five conferences, they almost certainly will not impact the national scene. But, for completeness next weekend UAB will face Middle Tennessee State to decide the champ of Conference USA (despite the fact that they played last week and UAB got smoked).  In MACtion, Buffalo will face Northern Illinois, and in the Funbelt, Appalachian State will face Louisiana (Lafayette).

Finally,

If the Season Ended Today, That Would Be Weird...

I plan on taking a little more time to crunch some numbers on the various championship week scenarios, but for now, I will just give my Saturday evening "hot take" picks for NY6 and the Big Ten bowls:

Cotton Bowl: Alabama vs. Oklahoma

Orange Bowl: Clemson vs. Notre Dame

Rose Bowl: Ohio State vs. Washington

Sugar Bowl: West Virginia vs. Florida

Peach Bowl: Georgia vs. Michigan

Fiesta Bowl: Washington State vs. Boise State

Citrus: Penn State vs. LSU

Outback: MSU vs. Kentucky or Texas A&M?

Holiday: Northwestern

Music City: Iowa

Pinstripe: Wisconsin

Redbox: Minnesota

Quick Lane: Purdue

So, that about does it for the regular season, but of course there is more football to be played and therefore more analysis and commentary to be made.  I am planning to put up one more post about championship week in a couple of days.  After that, I will likely prepare a conference-by-conference bowl preview.  Until then, Go State! Beat (a team to be named later)!