I can't remember if they still do it or not, but ESPN used to run an ad during bowl season claiming it to "the Most Wonderful Time of the Year." While I cannot agree 100% with that conclusion from a sports point-of-view (as March Madness is clearly the "most wonderful time" on the sports calendar) but in general, I agree with the sentiment. Bonus football, even in mid-December, is a good time.
Not all talking heads or sports fans agree, of course, as just like clock-work we have heard the calls to expand the playoffs or that there are "too many bowls." As for the playoffs, I personally have a pretty hard time getting too fired up about it one way or the other. Is the current system fair? Probably not. Do I care? Sort of, but the problem is that it is essentially impossible to create a "fair" system. I personally like the current New Years Six system just fine. I could be persuaded to accept a 6 or 8 team playoff, but I am not losing any sleep over the idea that the Buckeyes and Bulldogs don't have a shot this year. If anything, I just feel a bit bad for teams like UCF that truly have no shot, but I digress.
As for the "too many Bowls" "problem." All I can say is, "Are you honestly making the argument for less football? Really?" In mid-July amidst the college sports desert, I miss football. I would be more than happy to flip on the Cheribundi Boca Raton Bowl in mid-July. Let's not look a gift Bad Boy Mowers Gasparilla Bowl in the mouth. Embrace it, sports fans!
As for MSU, they may not be in the destination that I expected, but in all honesty, that is 100% OK. I think that I made my opinion pretty clear that even though I thought MSU would wind up in the Outback Bowl, it may not have been in MSU's best interest. While winning the Outback Bowl would have been fantastic, beating a decent, name-brand Pac 12 team in the Redbox Bowl is no small Famous Idaho Potatoes. If the option is between that and getting blown out by Mississippi State in Tampa, I would take a trip to the Bay Area any day. Heck, I might even take a trip to NYC in December if it got MSU one more win. I will be looking into the statistical details of the MSU-Oregon match-up a little later in the month.
For today, I wanted to take a quick spin around the country taking a look at the various bowl match-ups that will take place over the next few weeks. Last year, my spreadsheet did extremely well in Bowl Season, going 64% against the spread and 11-2 for upset picks. I almost won 1st place in my bowl pool last year using just my spreadsheet's picks. While I do not expect to do that well again this year, it is a good "final exam" for my methodology.
As always, here is the prediction chart for all 39 bowl games, followed by my upset picks table. My picks are a bit more consistent with Vegas this year, as I only have 3 teams to cover (Bama, Georgia, and Missouri) and only four total upset picks (all of which involve Big Ten teams...) The FPI likes three totally different upsets (none of which are interesting) and my simulation suggests that we will see a 12.1 ± 2.8 upsets total.
Vegas Says: 2-4
Vegas Says: 3-2-1
Vegas Says: 4-1-1
Vegas Says: 4-2-1
Vegas Says: 4-2-1
Not all talking heads or sports fans agree, of course, as just like clock-work we have heard the calls to expand the playoffs or that there are "too many bowls." As for the playoffs, I personally have a pretty hard time getting too fired up about it one way or the other. Is the current system fair? Probably not. Do I care? Sort of, but the problem is that it is essentially impossible to create a "fair" system. I personally like the current New Years Six system just fine. I could be persuaded to accept a 6 or 8 team playoff, but I am not losing any sleep over the idea that the Buckeyes and Bulldogs don't have a shot this year. If anything, I just feel a bit bad for teams like UCF that truly have no shot, but I digress.
As for the "too many Bowls" "problem." All I can say is, "Are you honestly making the argument for less football? Really?" In mid-July amidst the college sports desert, I miss football. I would be more than happy to flip on the Cheribundi Boca Raton Bowl in mid-July. Let's not look a gift Bad Boy Mowers Gasparilla Bowl in the mouth. Embrace it, sports fans!
As for MSU, they may not be in the destination that I expected, but in all honesty, that is 100% OK. I think that I made my opinion pretty clear that even though I thought MSU would wind up in the Outback Bowl, it may not have been in MSU's best interest. While winning the Outback Bowl would have been fantastic, beating a decent, name-brand Pac 12 team in the Redbox Bowl is no small Famous Idaho Potatoes. If the option is between that and getting blown out by Mississippi State in Tampa, I would take a trip to the Bay Area any day. Heck, I might even take a trip to NYC in December if it got MSU one more win. I will be looking into the statistical details of the MSU-Oregon match-up a little later in the month.
For today, I wanted to take a quick spin around the country taking a look at the various bowl match-ups that will take place over the next few weeks. Last year, my spreadsheet did extremely well in Bowl Season, going 64% against the spread and 11-2 for upset picks. I almost won 1st place in my bowl pool last year using just my spreadsheet's picks. While I do not expect to do that well again this year, it is a good "final exam" for my methodology.
As always, here is the prediction chart for all 39 bowl games, followed by my upset picks table. My picks are a bit more consistent with Vegas this year, as I only have 3 teams to cover (Bama, Georgia, and Missouri) and only four total upset picks (all of which involve Big Ten teams...) The FPI likes three totally different upsets (none of which are interesting) and my simulation suggests that we will see a 12.1 ± 2.8 upsets total.
Since Bowl Season is a bit like the Ryder Cup where teams are (sort of) playing for conference pride, I think it makes the most sense to look at each conference one by one. Similar to last year, I did not go to the trouble of making sure I got all the bowl names and sponsors exactly correct.
The Fun Belt
12/15: Friday, I'm In Love Cure Bowl: Tulane vs. UL Lafayette (+3.5)
12/15: Invasive Species Camellia Bowl: Georgia Southern (0.0) vs. Eastern Michigan
12/15: State of Michigan Sports Schadenfreude New Orleans Bowl: Appalachian State (-7.0) vs. Middle Tenn
12/22: Cheap Junk from China Dollar General Bowl: Buffalo vs. Troy State (+3.0)
12/29: Underwater Mortgage Arizona Bowl: Arkansas State (0.0) vs. Nevada
Vegas Says: 1-2-2
Dr. G&W Says: 3-2
As usual, the poor Fun Belt gets a pretty lackluster set of bowls and Group of Five opponents, but hey, somebody has to play on the first weekend, right? RIGHT? As for picks, all of my spreadsheet's picks are within a few points of Vegas, but at least my algorithm isn't afraid to pick a side in the Camellia and Arizona Bowls. Vegas is on the fence, while my math favors Arkansas State and Georgia Southern over Nevada and EMU, but just a few points. The Dollar General Bowl featuring Buffalo from the MAC against Troy State seems quite watchable, but the highlight of the entire line-up has to be the ultimate state of Michigan schandenfreude-fuel proxy battle between Appalachian State and Middle Tennessee State in the New Orleans Bowl. I am so excited that I am not even sure who to root for. I mean, seeing Appalachian State win and Middle TN lose seems the most satisfying, but then again, seeing Middle TN win might just be a bit validating... or would it? Great, now I'm on the fence.
Conference USA! USA! USA!
12/15: Hey, Hey We're Adobe! New Mexico Bowl: Utah State vs. North Texas (+10.0)
12/15: State of Michigan Sports Schadenfreuden New Orleans Bowl: Appalachian State vs. Middle Tenn (+7.0)
12/18: Al Bundy Boca Raton Bowl: UAB (-1.0) vs. Northern Illinois
12/20: Sarsaparilla Gasparilla Bowl: Marshall (-2.0) vs. South Florida
12/21: Tax-Haven Bahamas Bowl: Toledo vs. Florida Int. (+6.5)
12/22: Extra Home Game for Hawaii Bowl: Hawaii vs. Louisiana Tech (+2.0)
Dr. G&W Says: 2-4
There is no good way to sugar coat this, but it is tough being poor Conference USA. I mean, the conference doesn't play any Power 5 teams in Bowl season, yet there are still picked to go both 2-4 by both Vegas and my calculations. Even the FPI has them at 2-4, although it gets there by picking Louisiana Tech to win, but Marshall to lose. The conference's best chances at glory are in Boca Raton, where the C-USA champ UAB will square-off with MAC champs Northern Illinois for a chance to determine who is the real champ of the second of the second tier of Division 1A. In addition, Marshall is expected to get a "W" over South Florida, which would be quite impressive... if it were last year. But don't fear, C-USA, my algorithm likes UAB and USF to win by more than a TD.
MAC(tion)
12/15: Invasive Species Camellia Bowl: Georgia Southern vs. Eastern Michigan (0.0)
12/18: Al Bundy Boca Raton Bowl: UAB vs. Northern Illinois (+1.0)
12/19: The Adventures of Frisco Co., Jr. Bowl: Ohio (-3.0) vs. San Diego State
12/21: Tax-Haven Bahamas Bowl: Toledo (-6.5) vs. Florida Int.
12/21: Notorious Idaho Potato Bowl: BYU vs. Western Michigan (+12.5)
12/22: Cheap Junk from China Dollar General Bowl: Buffalo (-3.0) vs. Troy State
Dr. G&W Says: 3-3
Being a Big Ten / Midwest guy in general, I feel the need to root for the MAC in Bowl Season. If nothing else, MSU and other Big Ten schools have a lot of MAC teams on the schedule and the better the MAC looks, well, it helps the strength of schedule at least a little. On the face of it, the MAC looks poised to hit right around 500. Ohio, Toledo, and Buffalo are all favored against respectable-ish opponents (San Diego State, Troy, and FUI), while Northern Illinois is only a 1-point dog to UAB (although my spreadsheet is less optimistic) and EMU opened as a pick'em against Georgia Southern. The only big underdog is Western Michigan vs. BYU in the Potato Bowl. So, even if the Broncos get mashed by BYU, the conference might just go 5-1. That just might whip MAC fans into enough of a frenzy to hit the local Dollar General to buy some flowers before hitting the beach.... or something like that.
Mountain West (M-West to his friends)
12/15: Hey, hey we're Adobe! New Mexico Bowl: Utah State (-10.0) vs. North Texas
12/15: What happens in Vegas Stays in Las Vegas Bowl: Fresno State (-3.5) vs. Arizona State
12/19: The Adventured of Frisco Co., Jr. Bowl: Ohio vs. San Diego State (+3.0)
12/22: Extra Home Game for Hawaii Bowl: Hawaii (-2.0) vs. Louisiana Tech
12/26: The Last Shall Be First Responder Bowl: Boise State (-3.5) vs. Boston College
12/29: Underwater Mortgage Arizona Bowl: Arkansas State vs. Nevada (0.0)
Dr. G&W Says: 4-2
Who ever negotiated the Mountain West bowl tie-ins probably deserves a raise. Historically, the M-West often finishes with the best overall bowl record, and they certainly are in position to do so again this year if the chips fall just right. Utah State is a big favorite over North Texas in the New Mexico Bowl, while Fresno State and Boise State are both narrow favorites over Arizona State (in Las Vegas) and Boston College (in the First Responder Bowl). My spreadsheet likes all three MWest teams to cover. Hawaii is also a favorite at home against LA Tech. The only real underdog is San Diego State in the Frisco Bowl vs. Ohio. Nevada is a push vs. Arkansas State in Arizona, but my calculations like Arkansas State for the win. Will the M-West win the Bowl Challenge Cup (google it) for a record 5th time? If they do, will anyone care? Stay tuned!
American Athletic Conference (Big East 2.0)
12/15: Friday, I'm In Love Cure Bowl: Tulane (-3.5) vs. UL Lafayette
12/20: Sarsaparilla Gasparilla Bowl: Marshall vs. South Florida (+2.0)
12/22: Jared (the Jewelry Store, Not the Pedophile) Birmingham Bowl: Memphis (-4.0) vs. Wake Forest
12/22: Blackwater Armed Forces Bowl: Army vs. Houston (0.0)
12/27: Independence Village for Seniors Bowl: Temple (-3.0) vs. Duke
12/31: 100% Civilian Military Bowl: Cincinnati (-5.5) vs. Virginia Tech
01/01: It Should Still Be Tostitos Fiesta Bowl: LSU vs. UCF (+8.0)
Dr. G&W Says: 4-3
While the M-West often racks up bowl wins, the AAC has risen to the top of the standings to be the clear leader of the pack in the Group of Five. Despite a bowl line-up that includes 3 ACC teams, an SEC team, and a 10-2 Independent, the AAC is still expect to be above 500 in their 7 contests, and this is despite the fact that USF is not expected to beat Marshall in the Gasparilla Bowl. In addition to Tulane's expected win over Louisiana in the Cure Bowl, the AAC is actually favored in all three contests featuring ACC foes. Memphis is favored over Wake Forest in Birmingham, Temple is favored over Duke in the Independence Bowl, and Cincinnati is favored over VA Tech in the Military Bowl. It is not just a fluke either, as my spreadsheet has all three AAC teams covering against their ACC foes. Perhaps this is more an indictment of the ACC than a compliment to the AAC, but I am sure they will take it. And, while I don't project Houston to get past Army, would anyone be that surprised if the defending national champions from UCF were able to upset LSU? I didn't think so.
| PAC10 12 |
12/15: What happens in Vegas Stays in Las Vegas Bowl: Fresno State vs. Arizona State (+3.5)
12/26: Empty Calories Cheez-It Bowl: TCU vs. California (0.0)
12/28: Memory Foam Mattress Alamo Bowl: Washington State (-5.0) vs. Iowa State
12/31: Internet Outage Redbox Bowl: Oregon (-1.5) vs. Michigan State
12/31: Green Day On Holiday Bowl: Utah (-6.5) vs. Northwestern
12/31: Don't Stare Directly at the Sun Bowl: Stanford (-6.5) vs. Pittsburgh
01/01: Rose Bowl Game, Sponsored by Capitalism: Washington (+5.0) vs. Ohio State
Dr. G&W Says: 5-2
The PAC 12 had a miserable 1-8 showing in the bowls last year, and let's be honest, their regular season in 2018 was not much better. But, based on the matches they have lined up this year, things look likely to improve. PAC 12 teams are a pretty clear 5- to 6-point favorite in the Alamo, Holiday, and Sun Bowls, and Oregon is also a slight favorite over MSU in the Redbox Bowl. Although my spreadsheet is not optimistic, I would also not be shocked in Arizona State gets the upset in Las Vegas over Frenso. In the Cheez-It Bowl, is opened as a pick'em, but my math does favor TCU over Cal.
That just leaves the surprisingly interesting Rose Bowl match-up of Washington vs. Ohio State. The Buckeyes opened as 5-point favorites, but my spreadsheet actually likes the Huskies in the upset. More on this match-up a little later.
ACC (Actually just Clemson Conference)
12/22: Jared (the Jewelry Store, Not the Pedophile) Birmingham Bowl: Memphis vs. Wake Forest (+4.0)
12/26: The Last Shall Be First Responder Bowl: Boise State vs. Boston College (+3.5)
12/26: Motor City, Pizza-Pizza Quick Lane Bowl: Minnesota vs. Georgia Tech (-4.0)
12/27: Independence Village for Seniors Bowl: Temple vs. Duke (+3.0)
12/27: Orange is the New Black Pinstripe Bowl: Miami (FL) (-4.0) vs. Wisconsin
12/28: National Lampoons Camping World Vacation Bowl: West Virginia vs. Syracuse (+7.5)
12/29: I Miss Mervins Belk Bowl: South Carolina vs. Virginia (+6.0)
12/29: Polyester Blend Cotton Bowl: Clemson (-11.0) vs. Notre Dame
12/31: 100% Civilian Military Bowl: Cincinnati vs. Virginia Tech (+5.5)
12/31: Death and Taxes Gator Bowl: Texas A&M vs. NC State (+4.5)
12/31: Don't Stare Directly at the Sun Bowl: Stanford vs. Pittsburgh (+6.5)
Vegas Says: 3-8
Vegas Says: 1-5-1
Dr. G&W Says: 2-9
For a few years there, the ACC was surging. They were beating SEC teams in the non-conference, winning bowl games, and Clemson even managed to win the National Title in 2016. But... this year things have not gone to plan. While Clemson is clearly one of the Top 2 teams in the country, the rest of the conference frankly just stinks. My power rankings have the 2nd best ACC team (NC State) ranked only #31. A big part of the problem is that three ACC teams that were supposed to be Top 20 quality (Miami, Florida State, and Virginia Tech) all under performed this year and no other team really stepped up. So, as the bowl match-ups got rolled out, very few of them look favorable, and even getting to four wins (out of eleven) looks challenging.
The lone bright spot is, of course, Clemson, who is a double-digit favorite to beat Notre Dame in the Cotton Bowl. I have the Tigers covering. Vegas has two other teams favored (Georgia Tech and Miami) but I have concerns in both contests. My spreadsheet likes Minnesota to upset the Rambling Wreck in Detroit, and as for Miami, they need to prove that they can beat a northern team in New York City in December. Good luck with that. My spreadsheet does have Miami winning, but not covering, and my gut says to take the Badgers.
As for the other 8 match-ups, the ACC team is a 3 to 8 point dog in all of them, and only half of those are against Power 5 teams. Ouch. I just don't see a lot of wins, and my spreadsheet predicts that all 10 ACC teams not named Clemson to fail to cover. A 1-10 Bowl record would not surprise me in the least.
| BIG8 12 |
12/26: Empty Calories Cheez-It Bowl: TCU vs. California (0.0)
12/27: Discount Gun Rack Texas Bowl: Vanderbilt vs. Baylor (+4.5)
12/28: National Lampoons Camping World Vacation Bowl: West Virginia (-7.5) vs. Syracuse
12/28: Memory Foam Mattress Alamo Bowl: Washington State vs. Iowa State (+5.0)
12/29: Ubiquitous Junk Mail Orange Bowl: Alabama vs. Oklahoma (+13.5)
12/31: Broken Bells Liberty Bowl: Missouri vs. Oklahoma State (+9.5)
01/01: 2nd-rate Insurance Sugar Bowl: Georgia vs. Texas (+10.5)
Dr. G&W Says: 2-5
Before I actually looked at the spreads, my expectation was that the Big 12 would likely be favored in about half of their games this bowl season. The conference went through a bit of a rough patch a few years back, but they seemed to be on the rebound. But, based on their match-ups this year, they might wind up looking just as bad as the ACC come mid January.
The over-arching theme seems to be "bad match-ups with SEC teams." Oklahoma is pretty much expected to get hammered by Bama, but the line for the Sugar Bowl (Georgia vs. Texas) and the Liberty Bowl (Missouri vs. OK State) is not much better. The best hope for a victory over the SEC is for Baylor to beat Vandy in the Texas Bowl. If Baylor is your only hope to look good, you have major problems.
As for the other 3 games, Iowa State is underdog to Wazzou in the Alamo Bowl, while TCU is a pick'em vs. Cal in the Cheez-It Bowl (my spreadsheet likes the Frogs here). The only potential bright spot is that West Virginia is over a TD favorite to beat Syracuse in the Camping World Bowl. Once again, if beating Syracuse, in football, is likely the best thing that will happen to you... you got problems.
SEC (where Education is a Secondary Concern)
The over-arching theme seems to be "bad match-ups with SEC teams." Oklahoma is pretty much expected to get hammered by Bama, but the line for the Sugar Bowl (Georgia vs. Texas) and the Liberty Bowl (Missouri vs. OK State) is not much better. The best hope for a victory over the SEC is for Baylor to beat Vandy in the Texas Bowl. If Baylor is your only hope to look good, you have major problems.
As for the other 3 games, Iowa State is underdog to Wazzou in the Alamo Bowl, while TCU is a pick'em vs. Cal in the Cheez-It Bowl (my spreadsheet likes the Frogs here). The only potential bright spot is that West Virginia is over a TD favorite to beat Syracuse in the Camping World Bowl. Once again, if beating Syracuse, in football, is likely the best thing that will happen to you... you got problems.
SEC (where Education is a Secondary Concern)
| 12/27: Discount Gun Rack Texas Bowl: Vanderbilt (-4.5) vs. Baylor | |
| 12/28: Proximity Trumps Quality Music City Bowl: Auburn (-4.0) vs. Purdue | |
| 12/29: Viagra Peach Bowl: Michigan vs. Florida (+6.0) | |
| 12/29: I Miss Mervins Belk Bowl: South Carolina (-6.0) vs. Virginia | |
| 12/29: Ubiquitous Junk Mail Orange Bowl: Alabama (-13.5) vs. Oklahoma | |
| 12/31: Broken Bells Liberty Bowl: Missouri (-9.5) vs. Oklahoma State | |
| 12/31: Death and Taxes Gator Bowl: Texas A&M (-4.5) vs. NC State | |
| 01/01: Poor Business Decision Outback Bowl: Iowa vs. Mississippi State (-6.0) | |
| 01/01: It Should Still Be Tostitios Fiesta Bowl: LSU (-8.0) vs. UCF | |
| 01/01: Overpriced Timeshare Citrus Bowl: Kentucky (+5.5) vs. Penn State | |
| 01/01: 2nd-rate Insurance Sugar Bowl:
Georgia (-10.5) vs. Texas Vegas Says: 9-2
Dr. G&W Says: 9-2 (but not the same 9-2)
The SEC got four teams into the NY6 this year and it would be natural to expect that the rest of the conference might suffer a bit. After all, this essentially means that all the other teams would have to slide up into more challenging bowls and match-ups. However, if the Vegas lines (and my spreadsheet) are correct, this SEC is still poised to crush the post-season. My own power rankings bear this out, as I have 10 SEC teams ranked in my Top 21. Damn.
As alluded to above, the SEC plays in four bowl games against Big 12 teams and two bowl games against ACC teams. The SEC is favored in all six of these contests, and my spreadsheet says to take the SEC team to cover in all six. This of course, includes taking Bama over Oklahoma in the Orange Bowl. It is also not a shock that LSU is favored to beat UCF in the Fiesta Bowl, although my calculations like UCF to cover. Then again, my spreadsheet doesn't get a copy of the injury report, so that is likely a factor.
So, the only remaining intrigue for the SEC revolves around the four remaining games with Big Ten foes. Auburn opened as a 4-point favorite over Purdue in Music City, while Florida opened as a 6-point to Michigan in the Peach Bowl, clearly the single game this post-season that is the hardest to get excited about. Pretty much everyone agrees on those two games. But things might get interesting in the other two games. Vegas expects Penn State to beat Kentucky in the Citrus Bowl and Mississippi State to beat Iowa in the Outback Bowl. My spreadsheet expects the opposite in both bowls. Personally, I am not sure what quite to make of this, as my algorithm has been in love with both Iowa and UK all year (as my algorithm tends to over-reward good defense and shut-outs specifically). If nothing else, these two games will be an interesting final test to see if there is anything to my algorithm's confidence in these teams.
12/26:
12/27: Orange is the New Black Pinstripe Bowl: Miami (FL) (-4.0) vs. Wisconsin
12/28: Proximity Trumps Quality Music City Bowl: Auburn vs. Purdue (+4.0)
12/29: Viagra Peach Bowl: Michigan (-6.0) vs. Florida
12/31: Internet Outage Redbox Bowl: Oregon vs. Michigan State (+1.5)
12/31: Green Day On Holiday Bowl: Utah vs. Northwestern (+6.5)
01/01: Poor Business Decision Outback Bowl: Iowa (+6.0) vs. Mississippi State
01/01: Overpriced Timeshare Citrus Bowl: Kentucky vs. Penn State (-5.5)
01/01: Rose Bowl Game, Sponsored by Capitalism: Washington vs. Ohio State (-5.0)
Vegas Says: 4-5
Dr. G&W Says: 4-5 (but not the same 4-5)
Finally, we come to the Notorious B1G. Based on the Vegas lines and my calculations, it looks to be a mixed bag for the conference. However, the Big Ten is by far the conference where my predictions and the Vegas lines diverge the most. So, more so than usual, it is the conference that I will be watching the most closely.
For four of the bowl games, my thoughts and predictions are quite similar to Vegas. Purdue and Northwestern are both mild underdogs to Auburn and Utah in the Music City and Holiday Bowls, Michigan is favored in the Peach Bowl (the match-up that is the hardest to get excited about), and MSU is a slight underdog to Oregon in the Redbox bowl. Those all check out. Things are a bit more interesting in the other five contests.
As stated above, both Minnesota and Wisconsin and just 4-point underdogs to ACC foes in the Quick Lane and Pinstripe Bowls. But, I feel good about the Big Ten's chances in both contests. As for the Gophers, my spreadsheet like them in the upset. As for the Badgers, I just don't like the intangible factor of Miami playing so far up north in December.As I mentioned in the SEC section, my calculations disagree with Vegas in the outcome of both the Outback and Citrus Bowl. In all honesty, my gut tells me both Big Ten schools will crap the bed.
And then, there is the Granddaddy of the them all: The Rose Bowl. Somehow, this is only the Buckeye's third trip to Pasadena since the mid 1980s. As I mentioned above, despite the fact that OSU is favored by 5-points, my spreadsheet likes the Huskies. Both squads were in the preseason Top 5 in most polls, and both teams had more than one underwhelming performance this year. In general, I think this game comes down to a referendum on which OSU team is the real one. Is it the one that beat Michigan badly and overwhelmed Northwestern in Indy? Or, is it the one that crapped the bed in West Lafayette and almost lost to Maryland? Will the players be fired up to send Urban off with a win, or will they be miffed that they aren't in the Playoffs? We will all find out together on New Year's Day.
Final Thoughts
So if I add everything up, the Group of 5 teams are all likely to be right around 500, the ACC and Big 12 will likely struggle, and SEC and (surprisingly) the Pac 12 will look strong and the Big Ten will likely just do OK. At least, that is what the number say. But, the numbers also tell me that 31 of the 39 Bowl games (~80%) have spreads that are less than a TD. Furthermore, this fact can also be extrapolated to predict that around 12 upsets out of 39 games (31%) are likely. So, as is often the case during bowl season, we should expect the unexpected.
As for the expected, for the record my spreadsheet likes Alabama to beat Clemson in the final by 10 points.
That is all for now and until next time, Go State, Beat the Ducks!
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