At the end of a very entertaining day of college football, actually essentially nothing surprising actually happened. In the Power 5 Championship games, all five favorites won, and the Final Four seems just about settled. As for the rest of the NY6, based on some of the combined knowledge reliable internet sources, I think it is pretty clear what is most likely to happen, and that is:
Cotton Bowl: #1 Alabama vs. #4 Oklahoma
Orange Bowl: #2 Clemson vs. #3 Notre Dame
Rose Bowl: Washington vs. Ohio State
Sugar Bowl: Texas vs. Georgia
Peach Bowl: Michigan vs. Florida
Fiesta Bowl: UCF vs. LSU
If it were up to me, I would instead match-up Michigan vs. LSU in the Fiesta Bowl and UCF vs. Florida in the Peach, but word on the street in Atlanta is that this is not likely. So, the above my final pick. However, there are a couple of lower probability scenarios that I would like to throw out there. First, if for some reason the Committee decides to pick Georgia over Oklahoma, the picks would most likely look like this:
Cotton Bowl: #1 Alabama vs. #4 Georgia
Orange Bowl: #2 Clemson vs. #3 Notre Dame
Rose Bowl: Washington vs. Ohio State
Sugar Bowl: Oklahoma vs. Florida
Peach Bowl: Michigan vs. LSU
Fiesta Bowl: UCF vs. Penn State
Although there is some indication that the Peach Bowl would select Penn State if they were available.
But, if the Committee really wanted to create the best match-ups and had unbridled freedom to do so, here is what they should do, in my opinion (based on estimated final rankings):
Cotton Bowl: #1 Alabama vs. #4 Oklahoma
Orange Bowl: #2 Clemson vs. #3 Notre Dame
Rose Bowl: #11 Washington vs. #5 Ohio State
Sugar Bowl: #17 Texas vs. #10 LSU
Peach Bowl: #7 Michigan vs. #6 Georgia
Fiesta Bowl: #8 UCF vs. #9 Florida
Despite some comments from reliable internet sources this will not happen, I am not completely giving up hope. This is clearly the most compelling set of match-ups. If Georgia does not want to play so close to home, it would be easy to flip-flop the Peach and Fiesta Bowls. Also, the Sugar Bowl is not obligated to take the highest ranked non-playoff SEC team or Big 12 team, so LSU to New Orleans would be fine. (In 2015, the Sugar Bowl took #16 Oklahoma State over #11 ranked TCU, so there is precedent).
As for the Big Ten Bowls, I will stick to my guns that MSU is going to Tampa:
Citrus Bowl: Penn State vs. Kentucky
Outback Bowl: MSU vs. Missouri
Holiday Bowl: Iowa vs. Oregon
Music City: Purdue vs. Mississippi State
Pinstripe: Wisconsin vs. I don't care
Redbox: Northwestern vs. I don't care
Quick Lane: Minnesota vs. I don't care
I might be wrong, but I think the business risk for the Outback Bowl next year in using an exception this year is too high. MSU just makes sense.
That said, as MSU fans we do have to be careful what we wish for. Would you rather get beat in the Outback Bowl or win the Redbox or Pinstripe Bowl? I think that is a very valid question.
In any event, this will all be over tomorrow and we can shift gears to focus on one more actual game.
Cotton Bowl: #1 Alabama vs. #4 Oklahoma
Orange Bowl: #2 Clemson vs. #3 Notre Dame
Rose Bowl: Washington vs. Ohio State
Sugar Bowl: Texas vs. Georgia
Peach Bowl: Michigan vs. Florida
Fiesta Bowl: UCF vs. LSU
If it were up to me, I would instead match-up Michigan vs. LSU in the Fiesta Bowl and UCF vs. Florida in the Peach, but word on the street in Atlanta is that this is not likely. So, the above my final pick. However, there are a couple of lower probability scenarios that I would like to throw out there. First, if for some reason the Committee decides to pick Georgia over Oklahoma, the picks would most likely look like this:
Cotton Bowl: #1 Alabama vs. #4 Georgia
Orange Bowl: #2 Clemson vs. #3 Notre Dame
Rose Bowl: Washington vs. Ohio State
Sugar Bowl: Oklahoma vs. Florida
Peach Bowl: Michigan vs. LSU
Fiesta Bowl: UCF vs. Penn State
Although there is some indication that the Peach Bowl would select Penn State if they were available.
But, if the Committee really wanted to create the best match-ups and had unbridled freedom to do so, here is what they should do, in my opinion (based on estimated final rankings):
Cotton Bowl: #1 Alabama vs. #4 Oklahoma
Orange Bowl: #2 Clemson vs. #3 Notre Dame
Rose Bowl: #11 Washington vs. #5 Ohio State
Sugar Bowl: #17 Texas vs. #10 LSU
Peach Bowl: #7 Michigan vs. #6 Georgia
Fiesta Bowl: #8 UCF vs. #9 Florida
Despite some comments from reliable internet sources this will not happen, I am not completely giving up hope. This is clearly the most compelling set of match-ups. If Georgia does not want to play so close to home, it would be easy to flip-flop the Peach and Fiesta Bowls. Also, the Sugar Bowl is not obligated to take the highest ranked non-playoff SEC team or Big 12 team, so LSU to New Orleans would be fine. (In 2015, the Sugar Bowl took #16 Oklahoma State over #11 ranked TCU, so there is precedent).
As for the Big Ten Bowls, I will stick to my guns that MSU is going to Tampa:
Citrus Bowl: Penn State vs. Kentucky
Outback Bowl: MSU vs. Missouri
Holiday Bowl: Iowa vs. Oregon
Music City: Purdue vs. Mississippi State
Pinstripe: Wisconsin vs. I don't care
Redbox: Northwestern vs. I don't care
Quick Lane: Minnesota vs. I don't care
I might be wrong, but I think the business risk for the Outback Bowl next year in using an exception this year is too high. MSU just makes sense.
That said, as MSU fans we do have to be careful what we wish for. Would you rather get beat in the Outback Bowl or win the Redbox or Pinstripe Bowl? I think that is a very valid question.
In any event, this will all be over tomorrow and we can shift gears to focus on one more actual game.
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