Prior to MSU's one-point loss in the Make-You-See-Redbox Bowl, my thought was that everyone needed to reserve judgment about the MSU offense until the team had a month to rest, heal, and prepare. Well, that month has come and gone, the offense looks no better, and MSU has one more loss. It was a flat, uninspired, and impotent attack, which is particularly frustrating considering how absolutely dominating the defense was... except for that one drive. But, against the 2018 MSU offense, 7 points has been enough to win in 3 of the last 4 games. That, frankly, is just not good enough.
So, what's done is done. It is now officially the off-season for MSU football, and the question is, what now? The defense is at a championship level, and that will likely continue, but what can be done to fix the offense? But, before we ask that question, we first must answer the question of what went wrong in the first place? What is the root cause of MSU's troubles? This is not an easy question to answer, and many people have proposed many possible causes:
So, what's done is done. It is now officially the off-season for MSU football, and the question is, what now? The defense is at a championship level, and that will likely continue, but what can be done to fix the offense? But, before we ask that question, we first must answer the question of what went wrong in the first place? What is the root cause of MSU's troubles? This is not an easy question to answer, and many people have proposed many possible causes:
- Dave Warner is bad at his job
- The play calling is poor
- Offensive line recruiting and development has been poor
- There is an angry, basement dwelling UofM fan with a voodoo doll
- The scheme is stale and predictable
- The offense is trying to do too much and thus does nothing well
- The whole offense was injured
- Route combinations did not allow receiver to get open
- MSU's players lack team speed
- Brian Lewerke lost confidence and Lombardi is not ready
I think that about covers it. These are the questions that Mark Dantonio needs to consider this off-season as he ponders what to do to fix the offense. Everyone is calling for staff changes, and that is fine IF that is actually a key root cause. My concerns is that it isn't, at least not directly. The offensive staff has been around for a while, and as recently as 2014 the offense was setting records. But, firing someone is a lot easier than going back in time to 2015 to make better offensive line evaluations or to find a sports psychologist to fix Lewerke's head. The "easy" fix is not always the correct one.
But, it is hard to believe that some staff changes won't happen. If nothing else, some new blood seems necessary (*cough* Bollman *cough*). But, at the end of the day, I believe in Coach Dantonio. He wants to win, and he knows far more about the real situation and problems with MSU's team than anyone else. He may not have always made the best decision in the past, and he might not always make the best decisions in the future, but I think more times than not, he has made the right decision. I think he can fix this. I think he will fix this. I think brighter days are not so far off.
National Overview
A summary of all of the Bowl results, sans the Title game, is shown below. As for my picks, on the morning of December 27th, I was 12 for 16 against the spread (ATS) which is 75%. But, I limped to the finish line and finished at 19 for 38, right at 50%. The FPI did a little better at 22 for 38 (58%). I guess it was just one of those seasons....
As for upsets, if your gut feeling was that there were a lot, your gut was correct. I counted a total of 16 in 38 contests. Considering that bowls are supposed to match up teams evenly, a high percentage of upsets is not a surprise. But, 16 is still over a standard deviation away from the ~12 that my probability simulation predicted. That said, a lot of upsets usually means a lot of successful upset predictions, and that was certainly true. My algorithm got 3 of 4 correct, while the FPI got 2 of 3.
In my Bowl Preview, I went through each conference and summarized their predicted performance to see which conference might be in line to win the illustrious (not really) Bowl Challenge Cup. Now that most of the bowls are complete, I thought it might be fun to see which conference performed well, and which ones fell flat on their face. Let's start with the conference with the lowest winning percentage and work our way up:
MAC
Vegas Says: 3-2-1
Dr. G&W Says: 3-3
Actual Result: 1-5 (17%)
Oh, MAC! In all honesty, the MAC had a pretty good chance to make a strong statement in Bowl season. With the exception of the No Small Idaho Potatoes Bowl (BYU vs. Western), the other four games were winnable. But, the MAC lost two games to Sunbelt teams and two games to C-USA teams. Not great, Bob! The sole bright spot was Ohio's surprising shutout of San Diego State in the The Adventures of Frisco Co., Jr. Bowl. "O-H!... I...O?" Better luck next year, MAC teams, and by the way, thanks for tanking the Big Ten's strength of non-conference schedule next year.
American Athletic Conference
Vegas Says: 4-2-1
Dr. G&W Says: 4-3
Actual Result: 2-5 (29%)
The AAC was supposed to be the strongest of the Group of Five conferences, but their bowl performance was clearly lackluster. The 56-point loss that Houston suffered at the hands of Army was a bad look, and the only team that covered was Tulane with their victory over UL Lafayette. Some of the results are understandable, however, as the two upsets that mainly ruined their record were both to ACC teams (Wake Forest and Duke) who took out Memphis and Temple. The AAC did get a win over Virginia Tech (via Cincinnati) and UCF hung with LSU in the Fiesta Bowl even if their win streak did come to an end. So, while the results weren't great, a least there were some (small) bright spots.
PAC 12
Vegas Says: 4-2-1
Dr. G&W Says: 5-2
Actual Result: 3-4 (43%)
In the regular season, the Pac 12 did not have a strong showing. The spreads suggested that the boys out west might have a better showing over the holidays... but as the dust settled on January 2nd, the left coasters finished with the worst record of all Power Five conferences. Furthermore, not a single team covered (although Washington came close and pushed), and the three teams that did win (Oregon, Stanford, and Washington State) did so by a shocking combined 4 points! There really was just the one upset, however, and that was Northwestern's win over Utah in the On Holiday Bowl. So, all things considered, it could have been a lot worse.
ACC
Vegas Says: 3-8
Dr. G&W Says: 2-9
Actual Result: 5-5-1 (50%)
Both my metrics and the Vegas spreads suggested that the ACC was not going to have a Happy New Year. In general, the ACC looked way, way down outside of Clemson, and it looked like Bowl Season was going to really expose the conference. But, despite the fact that the ACC (Miami and Georgia Tech) got upset by two Big Ten West teams in the Pinstripe and Quick Lane Bowls, and the fact that AC/DC Thunderstruck First Responder Bowl got cancelled, the ACC still managed to get to 500. They got there through a series of four upsets and the expected blow out of Notre Dame by Clemson in the Cotton-Polyester Blend Bowl. As stated above, Duke and Wake Forest took out two AAC teams in lower tier bowls, but out of no where Syracuse trounced West Virginia in the National Lampoons Camping World Vacation Bowl while Virginia shut out South Carolina in the Belk Bowl. Perhaps the rumors of the ACC's death have been a bit exaggerated after all...
SEC
Vegas Says: 9-2
Dr. G&W Says: 9-2
Actual Result: 6-5 (55%)
DO NOT ADJUST YOUR SCREEN. Yes, the SEC somehow had only has the 3rd best winning percentage of the Power Five conferences. Ironically, the SEC actually won the two bowls in which they were underdogs: Kentucky took out Penn State in the If Life Gives You Lemons, Make Lemonade Citrus Bowl, while Florida chomped Michigan in the Viagra Peach Bowl. But, the conference suffered a whopping five upset losses. As mentioned above, South Carolina didn't even score against Virginia, Vandy couldn't beat Baylor deep in the heart of Texas, Oklahoma State oppressed Missouri in the Liberty Bowl, Mississippi State lost to Iowa in Tampa, and in the biggest upset of the season, Texas (figuratively and sort of literally) stampeded over UGA. Truth be told, neither LSU nor Alabama covered either. Auburn and Texas A&M had truly impressive wins over Purdue and NC State, but overall the SEC failed to meet expectations.
Big Ten
Vegas Says: 4-5
Dr. G&W Says: 4-5
Actual Result: 5-4 (56%)
On first blush, the records suggest that the Big Ten got one more win than expected and essentially did just slightly better than expected. While that is a true statement, the path the conference took to get there was a bit more interesting. Similar to the ACC, the Big Ten had a fairly strong performance despite two upsets to Michigan and Penn State. Considering those are perhaps the two least likable teams in the conference, I can live with that. Fortunately, the conference made up the difference by scoring a total of 4 upset wins. Wisconsin and Minnesota both took out ACC teams in cold weather cities, Iowa silenced the cow bells of Mississippi State, and Northwestern can back to beat Utah. The only games that actually went to plan were Ohio State's win in Pasadena, and MSU and Purdue's losses.
Big 12
Vegas Says: 1-5-1
Dr. G&W Says: 2-5
Actual Result: 4-3 (57%)
In the final analysis, the big winner in the Power 5 winds up being the Big 12. Weird, right? Not only did the Big 12 finish with the best overall winning percentage, they did so despite only being favored to win a single game this holiday season and being pretty big underdogs in at least 2 games. As seems to be the trend this season, the Big 12 actually got upset in single game in which they were favored (West Virginia's loss in the National Lampoons Camping World Vacation Bowl). But, conference pride was restored with upset wins by Baylor, Oklahoma State, Texas, and TCU (technically this was a pick'em). Iowa State and Oklahoma even both managed to cover, which means the conference went 6-1 ATS. Considering the Big 12 seemed to be wandering in the desert just a few years ago, they have come a long way.
That all said, it is certainly notable that all five power conferences finished with records that were no more than one game above or below 500. Essentially, the Power 5 landscape is pretty flat. In a world where Clemson and Alabama seem to be a seem to be on a higher plane, it seems like there might not really be a huge difference between teams #3 and #50. We essentially live in a world of two circles and lots of squares.
But, we aren't done yet. When it comes to bowl winning percentage, the Group of Five deserves a bit more praise:
Mountain West
Vegas Says: 4-1-1
Dr. G&W Says: 4-2
Actual Result: 3-2-1 (60%)
In the history of the "Bowl Challenge Cup," the Mountain West actually has the most titles, most likely due to their historically favorable bowl match-ups. This year was no different, and they basically took care of business. Hawaii did get upset by LA Tech, but Boise State didn't get the chance to finish their game against Boston College, so it was basically a push.
Sun Belt
Vegas Says: 1-2-2
Dr. G&W Says: 3-2
Actual Result: 3-2 (60%)
There is not a whole lot to see here either. The Sun Belt split the two bowl that opened as a push (with Georgia Southern getting a win over Eastern and Arkansas State dropping the Arizona Bowl to Nevada), so the tie-breaker was Troy's upset win over Buffalo in the General Dollar Bowl. In other notable results, Appalachian State bested Middle Tennessee State in the battle of Michigan-MSU Schadenfreude.... yeah they did!
and finally... the winner is....
Conference USA!
Vegas Says: 2-4
Dr. G&W Says: 2-4
Actual Result: 4-2 (67%)
In a startling upset, the conference that takes this year's Bowl Challenge Cup in none other than lowly Conference USA, by virtue of being the only conference to get to more than one game over 500. Flatland. Their formula for ultimate victory was simple. UAB and Marshall both avoided upsets, while FIU and Louisiana Tech both stole wins over Toledo and Hawaii. Game, Set, Match. I am sure that the C-USA players will now have some great stories to share with their grandchildren about legendary campaign of 2018.
That wraps it up for Bowl Season. Once the Championship Game is in the books next week, I plan to take one more look back at 2018 season to put one last bowl on the 2018 season. Stay tuned.
Comments
Post a Comment